Potential power bats aren't just falling off the vine like they were in 2003 though; those mostly get identified and locked up early in today's game.I'm guessing that one of Shaw/Sandoval/Swi/Vaz is gone by opening day next year, if not two. The Sox *might* be wise to hold off on banking on Yoan, AB or anyone, and make a couple of moves like another team that had a hole at DH (and 1B...): the 2003 Red Sox. Brought in a couple of potential power bats and saw what stuck. We don't need to bring in 4 players like that team did (Ortiz, Je. Giambi, Millar & Mueller), and I'm not saying that Steven Pearce or his ilk on a $5m flyer is a good idea, but might want some insurance against the young kids not being quite ready.
I'm not talking about the George Springer's of the world. Ortiz was released and considered an injury risk. Giambi didn't pan out but cost us John Hancock. Millar was headed to Japan until the Sox broke an unwritten rule about waivers. There are guys who show a sparkle but aren't trusted to put up numbers consistently - the Sox are in a decent position to spend very little compared to the EE's of the world and try a couple of guys out (again, if they don't bank on someone in AA or lower being in the opening day lineup next year).Potential power bats aren't just falling off the vine like they were in 2003 though; those mostly get identified and locked up early in today's game.
Makes it seem like it's a posted position on TeamWork OnlineThe Jays announcers talk as if it is a foregone conclusion EE or Joey Bats replaces Ortiz. They say both guys are buddies with Ortiz and think Boston DH is a nice gig.
Wait, what? Sure, sometimes young players take a step back, but it's not typical. Usually players trend upward until they peak at some point in their mid-20s. Different analyses I've read have found different typical peak ages, but they're usually somewhere between 24 and 27. The 2014 Red Sox had zero position players who had made a significant positive contribution the previous year and were in their age-27 or younger season. The 2017 Red Sox will have four, and that's not even counting Swihart. You don't see a difference there?You tell me it's a different situation but agree that sometimes young players take a step back. So it's not really different, is it?
The 2014 is also a pretty good example of how young players don't necessarily progress the way you expect them to, as 21-year-old Xander Bogaerts slumped horrifically for a few months, 24-year-old Jackie Bradley couldn't figure out MLB pitching, and 25-year-old Will Middlebrooks demonstrated that he sucks. All had more MLB experience than either Benintendi or Moncada likely will this time next year, whom everyone - myself included! - has pencilled in to significant roles next year.Wait, what? Sure, sometimes young players take a step back, but it's not typical. Usually players trend upward until they peak at some point in their mid-20s. Different analyses I've read have found different typical peak ages, but they're usually somewhere between 24 and 27. The 2014 Red Sox had zero position players who had made a significant positive contribution the previous year and were in their age-27 or younger season. The 2017 Red Sox will have four, and that's not even counting Swihart. You don't see a difference there?
If there is a solid 1 - 5 in the rotation I'd say yes. The problem is the Sox need all 5.67 runs/gm to compensate for the lack of pitching at the back-end of the rotation. Without Ortiz you're down around 5 runs/gm which makes the need for solid arms in the 4 and 5 slots that much more important. Unless another solid, inning eating arm can be added and ERod returns healthy and able to pitch then the loss of offense Ortiz provides will be definitely missed.I guess to me, the question of "who will replace Ortiz" is less "who's going to DH" and more "where is that lost offense going to come from?" Right now, doing nothing, as many people have suggested, gives you this lineup:
Betts RF
Pedroia 2B
Bogaerts SS
Ramirez DH/1B
Bradley CF
Shaw 3B/1B/DH
Sandoval 3B/DH
Vazhart C
Benintendi LF
With Moncada entering the mix at some point. You can quibble about the order and some positions - my version has four RH batters in a row, probably not going to cut it - but that's the personnel.
A serious question: is that lineup good enough? You've effectively replaced Ortiz's 2016 with Pablo Sandoval. And yes, maybe LF and C have been upgraded (Benintendi > the relay team and a full season of Swihart > Vazquez/Hanigan/Leon), and maybe Moncada hits the ground running when he shows up, but none of those players is an Ortiz-style hitter - Ramirez was in his younger days, but outside of April 2015, he hasn't really been since getting here. Do you need a guy like that? I am not sure, but I would feel a lot better with one around, personally. Who it is would be a different question.
The recruitment process has already begun:The Jays announcers talk as if it is a foregone conclusion EE or Joey Bats replaces Ortiz. They say both guys are buddies with Ortiz and think Boston DH is a nice gig.
The only quibble here is that we may well need to outscore the next best team by 80 runs because their pitching might well be 80 runs better than ours. (Obviously we're not scoring in aggregate here but you get the point). There is no trophy for having the league's best offense, whether by 1 run or 81.I think the urgency of replacing Ortiz's production may be a bit exaggerated here. The Sox are currently on a pace to lead the AL in scoring by about 80 runs. David Ortiz is on a pace for a 70 wRAA. In other words, replace Ortiz with a league-average hitter this year and the Sox should still top the league in scoring (yeah, I realize offense is not that granular, and removing a great hitter from the middle of a lineup may affect others' performance as well, but I doubt that effect is substantial enough to negate the point that our offense has been good enough to make Ortiz almost superfluous).
This I agree with. I think the biggest questions are whether the FO is willing to eat Panda's contract and whether any of the current ML assets in the corner IF / corner OF mix get traded.Obviously, a lot depends on Benintendi and Moncada--how soon they're available and how quickly they adjust to major league pitching. And what happens with Pablo will matter as well. But for now, I'm not convinced that the best way to pivot into the post-Papi era will be to sign a 34-year-old Papi Lite to a multiyear contract.
Ortiz is just going to say he was kidding and that will be the end of that. At most he'd get a tiny fine and a stern "Don't do it again" form the League OfficeJeff Blair @SNJeffBlair 2h2 hours ago
Major League Baseball is expected to look into David Ortiz's comments re. Edwin Encarnacion. Players subject to tampering rules as r execs.
Harper isn't a free agent until 2019 and is rumored to be talking extension with the Nats http://espn.go.com/blog/mlb/rumors/post/_/id/25521/mlb-rumor-central-open-dialogue-on-bryce-harper-extensionIt'll be interesting to see how they do things. As direct replacements go, there's no top-shelf LHH with power on the market until 2018. And while Harper's almost a lock for pinstripes, it'd be nice to see DDski pull a DD when he signed Manny after 1999.
They should drag out the process until the end of the year, then ban him from playing for life.Ortiz is just going to say he was kidding and that will be the end of that. At most he'd get a tiny fine and a stern "Don't do it again" form the League Office
Mind you, If I was a Blue Jays fan I would have been quite pissed about this.
Why? Ballplayers in today's game have friends on every club. I can only imagine what's said in text messages.Ortiz is just going to say he was kidding and that will be the end of that. At most he'd get a tiny fine and a stern "Don't do it again" form the League Office
Mind you, If I was a Blue Jays fan I would have been quite pissed about this.
I agree. I think the "tampering" rules were made for a different era, particularly when it comes to what players can say. Certainly, there are things that organizations and executives should not do; but this notion that players should be wrist-slapped for innocuous comments is regressiveWhy? Ballplayers in today's game have friends on every club. I can only imagine what's said in text messages.
Blue Jay fans tend to be very sensitive over any kind of slight (I know - I'm surrounded by them) - many are still annoyed over Farrell's move (even though they thought he stunk). They have a continent wide chip on their collective shoulders - "MLB is against us because we are Canadian" - that sort of thing.Why? Ballplayers in today's game have friends on every club. I can only imagine what's said in text messages.
Larry Bird is not walking through that door.I guess to me, the question of "who will replace Ortiz" is less "who's going to DH" and more "where is that lost offense going to come from?" ...