Trade Deadline Approach
- Thread starter tims4wins
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If you wanna sell stuff, what are you buying? Selling, falling out of the playoff race seems pretty risky, likely to be demoralizing to the team and much of the fan base. Team doesn’t really need more prospects.
Just stay under the cap, please.
[Another reason to hate the needless staggering over the cap in 2022 is it'd sure be nice to have had penalties reset for a splurge in 2023.]
[Another reason to hate the needless staggering over the cap in 2022 is it'd sure be nice to have had penalties reset for a splurge in 2023.]
Yeah they fought all season with tons of injuries and made it to Aug 1 in the race. You don’t quit now.
Not adding would be just as demoralizing for the team as selling, at least in my opinion.
Especially when you see teams that ostensibly have "injured guys coming back" too and they are buying (Houston, Toronto, LAA) while not just waiting for their own injured players to come back AND some teams that have just been loading up and are already better (Texas, obviously; TB adding Civale).
I still want them to add pieces with term, and I'm going to keep saying that until 6pm tonight. But if you don't add, the team will be probably be demoralized anyway, and at that point you should sell. I hope it doesn't get to that point, though.
Especially when you see teams that ostensibly have "injured guys coming back" too and they are buying (Houston, Toronto, LAA) while not just waiting for their own injured players to come back AND some teams that have just been loading up and are already better (Texas, obviously; TB adding Civale).
I still want them to add pieces with term, and I'm going to keep saying that until 6pm tonight. But if you don't add, the team will be probably be demoralized anyway, and at that point you should sell. I hope it doesn't get to that point, though.
It's not really rational. & I think it's just a rare rainy day in Vegas after 3 frustrating losses.
& it's still a seller's market, so all else being equal, getting something out of the Paxton/Duvalls of the world makes a bit of sense to me. & I don't necessarily see the value in the other half of the Paxton out/cost-controlled starter in big-brain series of transactions.
I kind of want to roll with our cost-controlled core this season, add a couple good prospects for Paxton/Duvall, & then come into next year loaded - adding guys like Yoshinobu, a 2B & maybe even a RF in FA while shipping out Verdugo/Arroyo, etc.
I think it may be time for patience because I don't think they're quite ready. But regardless I hope we make some fun trades that don't negatively impact our future.
That X is kind of silly. Their record and place in the standings moves around with each outcome. We all learned that at the start of our fanaticism.
Prospect development is fun for some but the big club trying to win is better for the overall organization. Marginal fans don't typically get sucked in by trades for low level prospects even if it gets the Excalibur crowd's blood pumping. They are close enough to be a light buyer. Make some reasonable upgrades and see where that gets you.
I mean, you can never have too many prospects, but it's true they do already have significant 40-man issues on the horizon.
I'll just root for creativity & fun.
I think the impact on wins & losses of any given trade is drastically overrated over the course of a couple months. I don't think they should really be considering a teardown or anything - although I do find the Mariners approach somewhat fascinating.
The "fun trades" would be more like things that clear up the 40-man glut a bit while providing better future pieces.
I would consider anything that involved the actual core of the MLB team a serious trade.
It would be really silly to sell today based on the last three games, then sweep the Jays this weekend and find themselves tied with them for WC3.
Also the Sox have always struggled on the tail end of west coast trips for as long as I can remember (save for 2018)
Wasn't it reported that Bloom discussed Sale at the deadline last year?
With as loyal as DD is with his guys, I wonder if he'd be interested there. A healthy Sale might make a decent one-year stopgap replacement for Nola as a bridge to Painter and Abel.
Sale aside, I'm also pretty curious what Pivetta could get back in a trade right now. He really has been tremendous in this role, but wouldn't he be squeezed out of it once Sale, Houck and Whitlock come back?
With as loyal as DD is with his guys, I wonder if he'd be interested there. A healthy Sale might make a decent one-year stopgap replacement for Nola as a bridge to Painter and Abel.
Sale aside, I'm also pretty curious what Pivetta could get back in a trade right now. He really has been tremendous in this role, but wouldn't he be squeezed out of it once Sale, Houck and Whitlock come back?
I doubt very much Bloom was discussing Sale at the deadline last year. He was already on the IL for his broken finger (July 16).
I accept that our biggest trade deadline boosts are going to be the return of several players off the IL, but I would still like to see at least a few small moves to boost things a bit and/or clear some 40-man slots so we have a better mix. First off, I would like to have a league average 2B that isn't really a 38-year-old DH. I'm done with the oft injured, 71 OPS+ Arroyo experience, and not really feeling Yu Chang. Reyes seems like a classic UT/bench player who hits enough to not be an embarrassment.
Also, seeing Aquaman and Caleb Hamilton the last few weeks tells me that we need to have a playable 3rd catcher on the 40-man. If Ronaldo Hernadez is that guy, fine but he needs to be on the 40. If not, there has to be a catcher out there who can at least put up a 600 ops, or even a JBJian 575 OPS.
I'm torn on adding pitching, as I don't see who we can add that wouldn't cost us a bundle and be a viable upgrade. I think we are just going to have to roll with Sale coming back in about a week, and some combination of Houck and Whitlock thickening up the staff either as starters or out of the bullpen.
Also, seeing Aquaman and Caleb Hamilton the last few weeks tells me that we need to have a playable 3rd catcher on the 40-man. If Ronaldo Hernadez is that guy, fine but he needs to be on the 40. If not, there has to be a catcher out there who can at least put up a 600 ops, or even a JBJian 575 OPS.
I'm torn on adding pitching, as I don't see who we can add that wouldn't cost us a bundle and be a viable upgrade. I think we are just going to have to roll with Sale coming back in about a week, and some combination of Houck and Whitlock thickening up the staff either as starters or out of the bullpen.
With the recent length and quality of his appearances wouldn't it make more sense to keep Pivetta in his current role and use Sale as an opener and eventually a starter once he builds up and Houck and Whitlock as bullpen pieces who could be used either short or long as needed? Also, as Cora has shown he prefers to pitch both Paxton and Bello every 6th day, there will be times a 6th starter or bullpen game is needed.
I don't think they'll trade him, but I would think he'd appreciate the move to a team with a better shot at a ring. If they try to trade him to Oakland, not so much.
Noted. But...
1. The denominator here appears to include every single minor leaguer included in every single deadline deal. Think of the Eric Hosmer deal .. there were 3 minor league deals included in the deal and nobody expects any of them to have a consequential MLB career. Lars Anderson is listed,. but he was not a "real" prospect in 2012.
2. What percentage of veterans acquired go on to play a meaningful role in winning a World Series?
Bloom has been very clear about what he'd consider doing at this deadline. It's my belief that the primary concern of the Red Sox at this deadline is the major league club, not the minor league system. In other words, I don't think Bloom is looking to trade for prospects. Instead, I think that any deal he closes will involve bringing back young major league players who are controllable for multiple years. I think the deal last year in which Vasquez was traded for McGuire is the kind of deal he's interested in making. There are a number of quite good Sox prospects who could be available because of their need to be placed on the 40 man this offseason, including Wikelman Gonzalez, Brainer Bonaci, Angel Bastardo, Edinson Paulino, and Allan Castro. I've argued against it elsewhere, but perhaps Yorke could be available as well. And then there's Bobby D. If Bloom were to package some of these prospects with a Paxton, Verdugo, or Duvall, it could be enough to bring back a cost-controlled major leaguer. Will such a trade actually happen? Who knows. But when teams report that the asking price for Paxton is astronomical, my guess is that it's because the Sox are interested in young big leaguers as the return. If that cost isn't met, then I think Bloom just won't touch the big league roster when trading for any reinforcements.
I want meaningful baseball until the end of the season, and hopefully beyond that. Selling is completely the opposite of that and this team AS CURRENTLY CONSTRUCTED has shown itself to be able to beat any friggin team! Yes... also losing to any team. Anyone care to look at recent WS winners to find losing streaks and horrible fundamental baseball played, I'm sure you'll find it.
If they were 4-5 out of a WC spot with no injured players returning, then yeah.... sell. They're not that though. Good lord.... half the posters here want to see a great roster on paper rather than a team playing baseball it seems. They have TONS of cash and good prospect depth... they can actually address the '24 team in the offseason for once.
If they were 4-5 out of a WC spot with no injured players returning, then yeah.... sell. They're not that though. Good lord.... half the posters here want to see a great roster on paper rather than a team playing baseball it seems. They have TONS of cash and good prospect depth... they can actually address the '24 team in the offseason for once.
My guess is that the first part, Sale as opener and eventually built back up to full starter, is definitely going to happen. As for Houck and Whitlock, whoever is back first (though maybe both since they're on similar time tables) might take the same route as Sale so that, fingers crossed, they have a full rotation of starters again in September. Chances are that by the time those guys are all back and rolling again, someone else in the rotation will be in need of a break. Crawford (101 innings last year, 96 the year before) and Paxton (0 innings the last two seasons) might soon be at a point where their innings need to be managed a bit more judiciously to prevent too much wearing down. That could be skipping a turn or using a six-man rotation for a couple turns or a brief Hellenic flu IL stint, but regardless, if everyone is off the IL, they can handle it without needing more opener/bulk games.
Not sure how much stock I put in that. I know the odds makers have their own calculus to determine such things, but it's crazy to think that SD is considered a favorite over the Sox at this point in the season. Heck, SD is a favorite over CIN, who is leading their division (?).
I'm not a betting man, but 55-1 seems like a pretty great price when we're 2.5 games out of the last WC spot with 50+ games to play.
Yeah, there are a lot of baseball fans who would rather watch Chaim Bloom do his work than Justin Turner. I never really got into fantasy baseball, either, so maybe I'm just not the kind of person who loves that perspective.
With the exception of the Bartolo Colon to the Expos trade, it looks like the team trading prospects for veterans received equal or much higher value in each of these deals.
EDIT- added a few more deals. It is surprising how few of these prospects, traded for big names, ended up having any type of productive MLB careers, but the Lowe+Varitek and Bagwell deals weigh heavy in our collective memories.
(these are a somewhat random assortment of "big" deadline deals- feel free to add other notable deadline moves that I missed)
2008- Mark Teixeira to the Angels; Casey Kotchman and Minor Leaguer Stephen Marek to the Braves
1998- Randy Johnson to the Astros; Freddy Garcia, Carlos Guillen and a player to be named (John Halama) to the Mariners
2008- CC Sabathia to the Brewers; Matt LaPorta, Zach Jackson, Rob Bryson and a player to be named -- Michael Brantley -- to Cleveland
2008- Manny Ramirez to the Dodgers; Andy LaRoche and Bryan Morris (from L.A.) and Craig Hansen and Brandon Moss to the Pirates; Jason Bay to the Red Sox
2015- Yoenis Céspedes to the Mets; Michael Fulmer and Luis Cessa to the Tigers
2022- Juan Soto and Josh Bell to the Padres; C.J. Abrams, MacKenzie Gore and Luke Voit and Minor Leaguers Robert Hassell III, James Wood and Jarlin Susana to the Nationals (too soon to tell)
2021- Max Scherzer and Trea Turner to the Dodgers Keibert Ruiz, Josiah Gray, Donovan Casey and Gerardo Carrillo (too soon to tell)
2001- Bartolo Colon to the Expos. Cleveland's return of "Lee Stevens and prospects" netted them Cliff Lee, Grady Sizemore and Brandon Phillips.
2007- Teixeira to the Braves: Rangers bringing back Elvis Andrus, Neftali Feliz and Matt Harrison
Best trade deadline deal ever? 2004 a three-team trade involving the Astros, Royals and Athletics. The Astros sent reliever Octavio Dotel to the A's and catcher John Buck to the Royals. The A's sent Mark Teahen and Mike Wood to the Royals, and Beltran made his way to Houston. After the trade, in 90 regular season games, Beltran hit .258/.368/.559 with 17 doubles, 23 homers and 53 RBIs. He also stole a perfect 28 bases in 28 attempts. In the division series, Beltran hit .455/.500/1.091 with two doubles, four homers, nine RBIs and two steals. In the NLCS, he hit .417/.563/.958 with another four homers plus four stolen bases.
EDIT- a few more:
2014- I forgot the Andrew Miller for Eduardo Rodriguez, which should probably be added to the regret side of the ledger, even though Miller pitched well.
1987- John Smoltz for Doyle Alexander needs to be on here as a cautionary tale.
2008- Manny Machado for Cuban outfielder Yusniel Diaz. In addition, the Orioles received right-handed pitchers Dean Kremer and Zach Pop, third baseman Rylan Bannon and infielder Brey Velara.
2017- JD Martinez to Arizona for Dawel Lugo, Sergio Alcantara and Jose King.
2017- Yu Darvish to Texas for outfielder/second baseman Willie Calhoun, pitcher A.J. Alexy and infielder Brendon Davis.
2015- Price was traded to the Toronto Blue Jays for Daniel Norris, Matt Boyd and Jairo Labourt.
2015- Johnny Cueto for Brandon Finnegan, John Lamb, and Cody Reed
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I was focusing mostly on more recent trades but that one should definitely be on the list! And, obviously, the Bagwell/Anderson trade. Maybe Sox fans are more sensitive to trading prospects because of these two deals?
EDIT- maybe this one too?
SS Pee Wee Reese (to Brooklyn Dodgers from Boston Red Sox) for players to be named, ultimately RHP Red Evans and OF Art Parks
July 18, 1939
Just for my OCD’s sake, Vazquez wasn’t traded for McGuire. But each of those trades seems like the type they will try to replicate today.
Mariners-Astros 1998 trade is pretty interesting. Now, of course, those teams probably won't trade with each other, but this was before realignment. Johnson went 10-1 after the trade and the Astros made the playoffs, but he then left as a free agent. Seattle got Freddie Garcia, who was their ace for a while, along with useful Carlos Guillen and John Halama. Garcia had 5.4 and 4.2 bWAR seasons before leveling off. That's a really solid deal for both sides.
And for each of these deals, there was some contingent of fans who were deeply upset by the loss of the prospects. Some people consistently overvalue unrealized potential without considering how few of these players actually are truly impactful. To date, the answer is not many and certainly not enough to forego trying to contend.
Why would anyone accept this annual refrain? We are a big market team with the most expensive tickets in baseball.
Not taking a shot at you here, I just hate this line we hear every year from this management team.
As recently as 2021 we didn't hear it (schwarber, Robles, Davis, Shaw, Schreiber)
That's because there aren't any. Either Bloom is doing an amazing job of keeping everything secret or nothing is going to happen today.
It looks like Bichette has a major injury. That is a non-trivial change to our playoff odds, you'd think.
2 other deals from the past:
2014: David Price for Willie Adames (18 at the time) and Drew Smiley. The details of the deal are here: it was insane
https://www.mlive.com/tigers/2020/10/from-west-michigan-to-world-series-the-tigers-trade-that-sent-willy-adames-to-tampa.html
July 31, 2018, the Pittsburgh Pirates traded pitcher Tyler Glasnow, outfielder Austin Meadows, and eventually pitcher Shane Baz to the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for pitcher Chris Archer.
https://www.bucsdugout.com/2021/12/15/22837648/the-archer-trade-pittsburgh-pirates-chris-archer-tyler-glasnow-austin-meadows-shane-baz
2014: David Price for Willie Adames (18 at the time) and Drew Smiley. The details of the deal are here: it was insane
https://www.mlive.com/tigers/2020/10/from-west-michigan-to-world-series-the-tigers-trade-that-sent-willy-adames-to-tampa.html
July 31, 2018, the Pittsburgh Pirates traded pitcher Tyler Glasnow, outfielder Austin Meadows, and eventually pitcher Shane Baz to the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for pitcher Chris Archer.
https://www.bucsdugout.com/2021/12/15/22837648/the-archer-trade-pittsburgh-pirates-chris-archer-tyler-glasnow-austin-meadows-shane-baz
Well so what if the only moves are returning players.... that "refrain" is actually probably one of the best "moves" that could happen to any team. Why do the Sox need to make a move?
What a nice waiver wire pick-up in retrospect! Kind of astonishing Detroit didn't give him more of a shot, looking at his numbers in the minors.