"None of the above" for me, because his salary is prohibitive, it would prevent us being able to re-sign Jaylen, and I believe Jaylen will be the better player (and certainly the more available player) over the duration of their respective next contracts.
Guys nobody here has yet typed out exactly how much Lillard will make on his current contract, please just read this:
2023-24 (age 33):
$45.6M (+7.4% raise)
2024-25 (age 34):
$48.8M (+6.9% raise)
2025-26 (age 35):
$58.5M (+20.0% raise)
2026-27 (age 36):
$63.2M (+8.0% raise) player option, seems
preeeeeeetty likely to exercise
Is he a great player? Absolutely.
DARKO: +4.2 DPM, 10th in the NBA for projected value next season (Tatum 9th, Jaylen 33rd)
RAPTOR: +7.8, 11.5 WAR, T-7th in the NBA for value last season (Tatum 6th, Jaylen 73rd)
LEBRON: +3.73, 15th in the NBA for value last season (Tatum 7th, Jaylen 86th)
However, he mostly contributes by using possessions. He's been among the league leaders in Usage % for a while (avg over last 3 seasons is 31.9%, exactly the same as Tatum's), as a primary-option scorer on a team that lacks a plausible alternative.
Lastly, he's also had injury issues that make worries about durability greater. Last 3 years (post-bubble), games played: 67,
29, 58. He has a skillset that tends to hold up over time (outside shooting), but if his
calves and ankles can't hold up, that skillset could depreciate in a hurry, and we'd be left holding the bag.
Back when we were dancing the "please let's find a star point guard" dance, if we were able to unload IT4 and get Lillard instead of Kyrie, or Lillard instead of Kemba, even if we had to give up more to get him, I'd probably have been in favor, depending on the particulars. But right now I can't see us giving up some of the best-value non-ball-dominant assets in the NBA (White or Timelord) and/or a swingman who can guard 1-5 for a marginally better offensive player, and accept downgrades to damn-near-replacement value at those other positions. And also give up 3 1st-round picks and the opportunity cost of what else they could have brought us. There's just no way that makes us better, as a team - and that's before we get into the impossibility of paying his contract, and Tatum's supermax, and also being able to build a contending roster after paying both of those.
Not seeing it.