Trade for Dame?
- Thread starter kazuneko
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I'll add that if you think all of the following are true:
(A) Brown is not going to get better than he is today, and
(B) Brown is not a good enough secondary-scorer to lead this team to a championship, and
(C) Lillard is likely to maintain his level of play from the past few years for at least a few years to come
...then I could see a trade themed entirely around a Brown sign-and-trade (plus salary filler, plus picks). But not if we're giving up additional hugely-positive-value assets on the roster. And I myself, as I said, have doubts about each of those 3 planks of the proposition.
Although even if so, Brown can't be traded in a sign-and-trade if he's making above 25% of the cap (FAQ #92), and he can only be part of an extend-and-trade if he is given a (maximum) 2-year extension with 5% raises (FAQ #95), which I very much doubt he'd agree to. Would Portland or a third team take him on along with the risk that he'd just play out 2023-24 and hit the market as a free agent eligible only for a 30% max? Would Brown want to sign such a contract in Portland? Seems hard to make it fit, one party or the other would be taking on massive risk. Someone correct me if I've got the CBA stuff wrong.
(A) Brown is not going to get better than he is today, and
(B) Brown is not a good enough secondary-scorer to lead this team to a championship, and
(C) Lillard is likely to maintain his level of play from the past few years for at least a few years to come
...then I could see a trade themed entirely around a Brown sign-and-trade (plus salary filler, plus picks). But not if we're giving up additional hugely-positive-value assets on the roster. And I myself, as I said, have doubts about each of those 3 planks of the proposition.
Although even if so, Brown can't be traded in a sign-and-trade if he's making above 25% of the cap (FAQ #92), and he can only be part of an extend-and-trade if he is given a (maximum) 2-year extension with 5% raises (FAQ #95), which I very much doubt he'd agree to. Would Portland or a third team take him on along with the risk that he'd just play out 2023-24 and hit the market as a free agent eligible only for a 30% max? Would Brown want to sign such a contract in Portland? Seems hard to make it fit, one party or the other would be taking on massive risk. Someone correct me if I've got the CBA stuff wrong.
Jaylen can be traded only as an expiring contract that can't be extended, making him a 1 year rental.... Which is why he's very unlikely to be traded
This objection makes no sense to me. Tatum has shown he's very capable of not taking the last decisive shot if he's double-teamed and/or isn't in position to get a good shot off. We saw him pass out of it, or draw a double team and get a great shot for a teammate, several times just in this postseason. If there's one thing we know about Tatum, it's that he cares more about winning than he does about having great stats or flashy plays, he's proven that with statements both on and off the court many times. I think he'd easily be able to play with Lillard, the question is whether Lillard would compromise the team defensive system, or even stay on the court, enough to make his salary a better decision than the alternative ways we could spend that money.
Players are traded all the time as expirings. It is less likely, I wouldn't call it very unlikely though
Wait, why couldn't he be extended by the acquiring team? I thought he could sign any contract with a 1st-year salary up to 30% of the cap; it's just that he can't get the 35% supermax if he is traded.
He can extend, but only at a set percent raise, which since he makes under the max now means less than a max and he'll never sign that, you can't just offer whatever you want on extensions.
At a major discount, if Jaylen gets traded this summer the return is going to be pretty light.
I'm not so sure. He has no leverage and what is he going to do, sit out because he didn't get his way? If Portland trades him to a team that is reasonably competitive, he can't be that upset. Miami or bust, if true, is an insane request. For Miami, sure they are big Dame hunting but could pivot to Harden if the Dame saga doesn't move fast enough for them, or because their offer simply isn't good enough.
Dame would have to be uniquely selfish to refuse to report to Boston if he’s traded there. There’s nothing in his history to suggest he’s that type of player.
If Portland doesn't give a shit about Dame's preferences and wants to get the best deal possible, I don't know why they would talk to Boston if one year of Brown wasn't on the table to start the discussion. If they are willing to take the pu pu platter then they might well work it out with Miami.
If they really don't care what Dame thinks there will almost certainly be better deals out there. I think if it isn't Miami, Dame might wind up in San Antonio.
If they really don't care what Dame thinks there will almost certainly be better deals out there. I think if it isn't Miami, Dame might wind up in San Antonio.
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Yes Tatum is willing to pass out of a double team or if he has a high degree of difficulty. But what happens when Lillard wants the play specifically drawn up for him instead of Tatum? Jayson gonna accept that?
Maybe. And I hope you’re right. I mean, I still don’t think Lillard ends up here but I’m just musing on this possibility.
There have been countless examples of two superstars being on the same team on the same court and making it work. Sure, it could blow up, but the chances seem tiny
Lillard's not a big enough upgrade for the next two/three years over Brown to make that trade worth it IMO. He seems to be aging well but he's at the age where cliffs happen and wear and tear has a little bit bigger impact etc. I don't think going all in for Dame makes them a title favorite any more than better health and some shooting luck among the current roster. and it would close off a lot of options for competing beyond 2026 when Jayson Tatum will still have just turned 21 
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The issue is teams just won't make real offers unless they have assurances the guy will be invested. Which is why they want their stars to work Dame to convince him. If POR actually gets a huge offer they'll take it and if it burns a relationship with some players and agencies so what... But they probably don't have one on the table
I think a LOT of teams are involved in this deal, not to trade FOR Dame but to see if they should involve themselves as a 3rd team. It's quite obvious the Blazers are not enamored with the current return and thus are looking for intermediaries who would take a Herro or Lowry from the Heat and pass along more draft capital or better contracts. I just can't pinpoint which team this would be.
As a player, Herro would be an upgrade from Brogdon going forward IMO. But he has 4 years left at $10 million more per year than Brogdon has on his contract at 2 less years. Can't see the Cs dealing off exceptional value to Portland for him.
As a player, Herro would be an upgrade from Brogdon going forward IMO. But he has 4 years left at $10 million more per year than Brogdon has on his contract at 2 less years. Can't see the Cs dealing off exceptional value to Portland for him.
I voted the first option reluctantly with the added significant benefit of keeping him from the team that just eliminated us.
I think this all supports trading Jaylen for him, but not trades centered around other players. Jaylen primarily contributes as a high usage scorer. Lillard is the same but much better at that role, while worse defensively. Swapping Jaylen for Lillard improves the offense significantly and is probably something we can cover for defensively with White, Tatum, Horford, Porzingis, and Timelord. Adding him at the expense of defense-first role players like White and Timelord makes less sense because it would damage the defense, the money gets crazy in just one season, and we end up with a roster overflowing with high usage scorers (Lillard, Jaylen, Tatum, and Porzingis), which would be an incredible offense but could lead to usage conflict and certainly would be a sum less than parts scenario.
I agree and don't see a realistic solution without Jaylen being involved. Maybe it could work for a year, but in general it doesn't make a lot of sense.
The prerequisites for a trade to even be considered are Lillard signing off on Boston (or Boston being convinced he will eventually come around) and finding a team that values Jaylen on a 1 year deal/thinks they can resign him. A tough needle to thread, but I suppose it's possible.
Unless there is a team out there very high on Herro, Miami has nothing of much value to trade and I would hope Portland doesn't cave right away to that offer.
On the plus side, while Jaylen's value on only a 1 year deal takes a big hit, I still think thats a more valuable piece than Herro (though risky of course). So I can see a scenario that Boston can put together a better offer than the Heat here if they really want to make that move.
It doesn’t give you pause that 3 of those 5 players you mentioned as cover basically play the same position?
I think the gap between Jaylen and Lillard as defenders and the positions that they can actually defend (Jaylen can go 1-4, Lillard can guard most chairs and some 1’s) isn’t being given nearly enough weight by most posters
Jaylen can kinda cover 1-4 but not all that well, he's pretty good on-ball against 2s and 3s, anything else... Meh.
We're going to play drop a lot with this personnel and have excellent bigs on the back line.
Trading average defense at the 2 for bad defense at the 1 is a downgrades for sure, but Jaylen isn't in the same galaxy as Dame on offense. You can build around a bad defender at the point if it brings elite offense both for himself and as a facilitator.
I think people get that gap. The ones in favor think that the net change will be positive, primarily due to the offense. If Celtics make a move for DL, they are gambling on age/decline and his poor defense not being a fatal flaw for the team.
Yeah I think in general people get the gap. People harping on the gap think Jaylen is a lot better than he is on D.
Jaylen looks like he SHOULD be good on D, but unfortunately he's overall just OK. It's been that way for awhile now so I'm not sure I expect a ton of change there.
Sure he can switch onto more guys and is a better defender than Dame, but you aren't swapping out all Defense here. Jaylen was clearly the worst starter last season on D.
Dame isn't good but he's not IT level bad, he won't have to expend as much energy on offense, and he will have great long defenders behind him. I think it would be fine.
I thought this was an exaggeration. Then I looked it up.
As charted above, in DARKO, Lillard has a -1.5 D-DPM (against a +5.6 O-DPM). That is the second-lowest among the top 100 players by total DPM. Trae Young -1.9, Lillard -1.5, DeAaron Fox -1.4, Jordan Clarkson -1.4, Devin Booker -1.0, Tyrese Maxey -1.0, those are the worst defensive ratings among the top 100 players. In fact there are only 9 players in the entire current-player set that DARKO tracks which have a lower D-DPM than Lillard (Trae among them of course).
By RAPTOR's accounting, Lillard had a -1.5 DEF rating last season, balanced by a +9.3 OFF(-ensive) rating. Of the 250 players with a qualifying # of minutes, Lillard's defensive rating is tied for 210th. Lillard didn't hit the minutes threshold in 2021-22, but if we lower the cutoff to where he does, he was +4.2 OFF / -1.6 DEF / +2.9 total, good for 52nd out of 278 qualifiers, but that defensive rating ranked 231st. In 2020-21, Lillard tied for 10th with a +8.3 OFF / -2.2 DEF / +6.1 Total, but that defensive rating put him 224th out of 250 qualifiers. So each of the last few seasons he was rated around the 10th percentile in defense, worse than all but a few scrubs.
Looking at LEBRON, over the last 3 seasons Lillard's defense has rated -1.66, -1.17, -2.26, which rated him 20th-worst out of 539, 62nd-worst out of 605, and 4th-worst (!) out of 539 this most recent season. So not only among the worst in the league but trending downwards. For comparison's sake, in his last 2 seasons in Boston, Isaiah Thomas rated -1.57 and then -2.70 (!), then we traded him and he rated out -2.55 for CLE/LAL in 2017-18, then he was hurt, then in his last season getting even semi-regular minutes in 2019-20 he was a -2.23 again. So Lillard projects to be roughly "Isaiah Thomas toward the end" bad at defense, or maybe slightly less-bad.
Sure, his offense more than makes up for it, but those sorts of problems do multiply when teams are hunting matchups in the playoffs, which is the lens through which we'd have to view a prospective Lillard trade.
Dame is not a good defender, but he’s been surrounded by bad defensive players on teams with very poor defensive schemes. He has also been asked to carry all of the offensive load most nights, too. I bet he could get up to below average, and not historically bad, in the right system.
JB (unless he said no to extension) would be off the table for me. Don't really want to send White either unless they'd rather have him than a bunch of picks. Something like MB, TL, filler, bunch-but-not-all of the picks deal would be great but unsuccessful.
Yeah I'm genuinely not concerned. Unless there are a bunch of injuries and he's out there with PP and some scrubs, I think this Celtics team is well equipped to have a very below average defender out there. And I think he would be at least a bit better here than he was in Portland.
My biggest concern about Dame is not D as much as his age and giant salary. If he trends down on offense over the next couple years (as many small guard do in their mid 30s).... we could have a problem.
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What is Miami giving up? Just Herro? Because, unfortunately, the only real weakness of that team is that they don't really have that real, alpha level scorer. Butler just isn't really at that level, IMHO. I think Miami with Dame is a real challenge for the Celtics.
If Dame is going somewhere else, I think the Celtics are the favorites in the East. If he goes to Miami, I'm a bit more concerned (I mean, they did just beat us).
If Dame is going somewhere else, I think the Celtics are the favorites in the East. If he goes to Miami, I'm a bit more concerned (I mean, they did just beat us).
I've read that he can't be extended for six months after he's traded and once he's six months through a season, he might as well just go to free agency. That's the risk for the acquiring team.
edit: This and this have more information about potential salaries but I think JB could get extended for something like 4/$190M but if he hits free agency, he could get something like 5/$245M. So once JB gets 6 months into the season, he's heavily incentivized to go to free agency. Which would suck for the acquiring team.
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I mean, Miami without Lillard and Herro beat us. Miami with Lillard would be a massive problem. I’m sure Brad is going to do his best to get in the way, even if the deal sends Lillard somewhere else.
Unfortunately, we have such a recruiting disadvantage to these warm weather locations. Obviously, he will live wherever in the offseason, but if you were a young, wealthy person where would you rather be in the middle of February - Boston, or Miami?
If you were trying to win a title in 2024-26 would you rather play with Jimmy or Jayson in May/June? I’m not sure this is all about the weather.
I think the bigger issue is income tax. With the new wealth tax, that’s an extra 5.4 million per season in Miami (no income tax) versus Boston (9%).
The lifestyle is huge reason why guys in any league want to go to Miami or Vegas. No state tax in Arizona or Texas either.
I think Dame is a much better fit than Jaylen for this team, but obviously there are age and salary considerations. Still, if you could find a way to get Dame and a role player for Jaylen/Brogdon/maybe a pick, I think you do it. This is the guy you want in those Final 5 minute close and late situations this team struggles with.
I’m also generally not a fan of Jaylen with a supermax.
I’m also generally not a fan of Jaylen with a supermax.
Half that difference. Half your salary is earned in away games, paying taxes in every jurisdiction the NBA has a team in, as you are considered to have worked in that location during that game.
I don’t know but maybe Butler? This isn’t as simple as Tatum is younger and bette me considering Butler has outplayed him two times now in the playoffs.
Seems like the only way Dame ends up in Boston is next off season if the Blazers refuse to trade him for crap this year & he opens up his options to other teams.
Brown would have a lot more value then as he'll be signed for 5 years, either to the Blazers or as part of a 3-way trade to his desired destination.
Brown would have a lot more value then as he'll be signed for 5 years, either to the Blazers or as part of a 3-way trade to his desired destination.
I'm not "worried" about not trading for Dame, beyond it being the subject of the thread.
It's going by take some work to get a third team interested in facilitating a deal for Miami. I don't think Herro has a strong market.
Agreed. What assets does Miami have to give to this mystery 3rd team to facilitate this? They need everything they have, and more, just to send to Portland for Lillard so I don’t see whatever is left enticing a team to take Herro.
The door is wide open for a team like Brooklyn, Boston, San Antonio to move into the top position here. Lillard’s people may leak stuff to keep Miami alive but I feel like odds are someone else lands Lillard.