Trading Jon Lester (news and speculation thread)

[dcmissle]

Agreed....and this is really a pretty unique position that Boston is in.  To have won three World Series championships this decade (and one just last year), and be in the selling position with a top-of-the-rotation left hander can really help retool.  And the fact that Lester seems to be very open to returning, this could be a pivotal few days to set the stage for a long term core (perhaps even more than with the Varitek/Lowe trade).  And Pittsburgh has the young talent (Bell/Taillon/??) to do it; and it is unlikely he'd sign long-term there anyways.
 
It is an odd position for them to have this type of a trading chip, and the next 48 hours could be key to the next 4-6 years. 

I'll plead to the guilty pleasure. It's a lot of fun.

But I'm a bit surprised at the lack of concern of how this could go sideways. They are called prospects for a reason. Many of them could fail to blossom, the great bulk of them in fact. There is no guarantee that trading partners will give you what you need, and there is a substantial risk that Boston begins to look dicey from a FA perspective.

For every Miami Marlins success story, there are countless Royals and Pirates disappointments. I suppose, though, we could try to buy our way out of this after a few down years.

 

[Rovin Romine]

If Lester was traded to the Dodgers, the perfect scenario would be a Dodgers/Athletics WS.  Hanley, Gonzo, Crawford, Beckett, Lester v. Lowrie, Moss, Crisp, Reddick

 

[dcmissle]

 
Ben needs to not focus on one team and go to every interested team and make it clear there are 5-8 other teams lining up and there is only one Jon Lester.  He then needs to shop the best offer he gets to the other teams to top it, rinse and repeat until he can't do any better.  He is in the driver's seat here.

This is absolutely right. Ben should not be doing the hard work on this, particularly with so many other irons on the fire. The teams that want Lester should be doing that.


It should be pretty simple. There is a floor beneath which you will not trade him period. Beyond that, you'll accept the best proposal.

Bring you best offers and make them clean.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

I'll plead to the guilty pleasure. It's a lot of fun.

But I'm a bit surprised at the lack of concern of how this could go sideways. They are called prospects for a reason. Many of them could fail to blossom, the great bulk of them in fact. There is no guarantee that trading partners will give you what you need, and there is a substantial risk that Boston begins to look dicey from a FA perspective.

For every Miami Marlins success story, there are countless Royals and Pirates disappointments. I suppose, though, we could try to buy our way out of this after a few down years.

 
Oh sure....just because it's exciting, that doesn't mean it's going to end well.

 

[soxhop411]

 
According to multiple sources, the only offer made by either side in the Jon Lester negotiations — from Lester’s representatives or the Red Sox — was the initial offering of four years, $70 million by the Sox at the end of spring training.
Yet, according to the sources, even with just the one formal offer, both sides have a “pretty good” understanding of what the respective parties are looking for their landing spots to be. The talks have been, and continue to be, classified as cordial and without animosity.
With the parameters in place, and no further communication scheduled until after the season, it has led the Red Sox to explore trade options involving the lefty.
While Lester is scheduled to pitch Wednesday, sources suggest there is still some uncertainty regarding whether or not he will make the start. Red Sox managerJohn Farrell said prior to Tuesday night’s game that if Lester isn’t able to go in the Sox’ series finale against the Blue Jays, Brandon Workman would fill in.


 

http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2014/07/29/sources-only-one-offer-made-in-jon-lester-talks-yet-both-sides-understand-parameters-of-preferred-landing-spots/
 
That makes it seem like he could still re-sign after the season

 

[Hee Sox Choi]

If Lester was traded to the Dodgers, the perfect scenario would be a Dodgers/Athletics WS.  Hanley, Gonzo, Crawford, Beckett, Lester v. Lowrie, Moss, Crisp, Reddick

How could you forget Punto?

 

[RedOctober3829]

If Lester was traded to the Dodgers, the perfect scenario would be a Dodgers/Athletics WS.  Hanley, Gonzo, Crawford, Beckett, Lester v. Lowrie, Moss, Crisp, Reddick

Why can't we get players like that?

 

[PaulinMyrBch]

I think the main hurdle to resigning him, whether we trade him or not, is the length of the deal. I'm sure we can reach a middle ground on the yearly salary, but I doubt we're even close on the length of the deal. And, some other GM will go the extra years.

 

[Corsi]

Give me a break Cafardo

https://twitter.com/nickcafardo/status/494243788554903552

https://twitter.com/nickcafardo/status/494243788554903552

link to tweet

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

I wonder if guys like Cafardo tweet that crap just for sh!ts and giggles.

 

[HriniakPosterChild]

This is absolutely right. Ben should not be doing the hard work on this, particularly with so many other irons on the fire. The teams that want Lester should be doing that.


It should be pretty simple. There is a floor beneath which you will not trade him period. Beyond that, you'll accept the best proposal.

Bring you best offers and make them clean.

 
Theo wouldn't like doing it that way. He'd find a way to make it a 3-way trade, if not 4.

 

[The Boomer]

The "rent-a-player" tag, while technically correct, seems particularly inapt for a team like LA.  No WS appearance in 25 years, newish ownership that has gone all in with a bloated $240M payroll, a team currently in line for a playoff run, and multiple top prospects who aren't going to get them to the top this year.  They have a chance to get a guy who was the best postseason pitcher last year and has been a top 5 guy in the AL this year, and the means to sign him long term if they want to go that direction.
 
IMO, these factors will push LA to put one of their top prospects on the table and trump any offer from Pitt or Mil. 

 
All of these leaks are nothing more than trade posturing.  To get Pederson or Bell level outfield prospects, the Sox simply need to add in a decent young player or prospect to soothe the jittery rental nerves of their trade partner.  The top 10 Sox prospects are probably off limits but here is the 11-20 list according to SoxProspects.com:
 

11
(8)




Matt Barnes
SP, Pawtucket

24

2011
1st

4.81

1.52

65

36

86.0

4
3-7

● Brian MacPherson - Barnes goes way back with Houston phenom... (7/11)


12
(23)




Sean Coyle
2B, Portland

22

2010
3rd

.323

.394

.546

12

260

4
2-7

● SoxProspects.com June Player of the Month


13
(4)




Garin Cecchini
3B/OF, Pawtucket 40

23

2010
4th

.243

.321

.326

4

304

4
3-6

 


14
(-)




Michael Chavis 
SS, GCL Red Sox

18

2014
1st

.106

.192

.191

0

47

4
2-7

● Debuted on July 5


15
(-)




Michael Kopech 
SP, GCL Red Sox

18

2014
1st

6.23

1.85

6

3

4.1

4
2-7

 


16
(12)




Trey Ball
SP, Greenville

20

2013
1st

5.80

1.65

48

24

68.1

3
2-7

● SoxProspects.com Pitcher of the Week, 7/14-20


17
(19)




Wendell Rijo 
2B, Greenville

18

2012
IFA

.264

.352

.433

7

307

3
2-6

 


18
(34)




Luis Diaz 
SP, Portland

22

2008
IFA

3.44

1.11

44

12

49.2

3
2-5

 


19
(42)




Travis Shaw
1B, Pawtucket

24

2011
9th

.290

.347

.491

9

214

3
2-5

 


20
(-)




Sam Travis 
1B, Lowell

20

2014
2nd

.303

.338

.421

4

152

3
2-7

 

 
Coyle, Barnes, Shaw and Middlebrooks are all close enough to major league ready but blocked with the Sox to get the Dodgers to relinquish Pederson or the Pirates to ring their Bell.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Give me a break Cafardo
 

https://twitter.com/nickcafardo/status/494243788554903552
link to tweet
 


 
 
:speechless:

 

[InsideTheParker]

I just want to be sure that when a trade goes through it will be in a new thread, b/c checking this thread is not economical.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Well, that doesn't follow. They may have accurately judged the likelihood and gotten burned by an unlikely result.

 
Isn't it also possible that they never seriously considered signing him long term but predicted he might have a career year in a contract season, or at least a year that would bolster his trade value? I'm not arguing this is the most likely scenario, but it's possible they were building up to this point.
 
Anyway, for anyone curious, here are the teams linked to the Sox and their top prospects as listed in the mid-season rankings. I don't have Insider, so Law won't be reflected in the table.
 
  [tablegrid= Teams Linked to Lester This Deadline ]Player BP BA Sickels MLB           Dodgers         Julio Urias 15 13 21 18 Joc Pederson 17 18 29 19 Corey Seager 19 16 19 17 Alexander Guerrrero N/R N/R 71 N/R           Pirates         James Taillon 39 24 N/R 32 Tyler Glasnow (not rumored) 26 21 26 20 Josh Bell 31 35 37 33 Nick Kingman 43 37 58 66 Austin Meadows N/R 43 51 50 Alen Hanson N/R N/R N/R 80 Reese McGuire N/R N/R N/R 81           Cardinals         Oscar Taveras Graduated Graduated 4 2 Stephen Piscotty 30 49 59 57 Rob Kaminsky N/R N/R 65 N/R Marco Gonazalez N/R N/R 66 N/R           Blue Jays         Aaron Sanchez 29 N/R 22 40 Daniel Norris 33 25 35 29 Dalton Pompey N/R N/R 63 95 Jeff Hoffman N/R N/R N/R 97           Orioles         Dylan Bundy 8 10 16 16 Hunter Harvey 21 31 39 35 Christian Walker N/R N/R 74 N/R           Mariners         Taijuan Walker Graduated Graduated 8 8 D.J. Peterson N/R 46 40 55 Alex Jackson (#6 Pick 2014) N/R N/R N/R 39 James Paxton N/R N/R 30 N/R           Milwaukee         Jimmy Nelson N/R 38 36 53           Miami         Andrew Heaney Graduated Graduated 11 22 Tyler Kolek (#3 Pick 2014) N/R N/R N/R 27 Colin Moran N/R N/R 64 72 [/tablegrid]
 
Obviously not all of these players have been linked with Lester and some of them are very likely to have been off the table before talks began.

 

[pokey_reese]

While the Sox don't technically need to trade Lester at this point, there is virtually no scenario in which they shouldn't trade him now.
 
When people are saying (to quote DCmissile, but paraphrase others as well) "There is a floor beneath which you will not trade him period," I would suggest that the floor referenced is in fact pretty low. 
 
Given that the Sox are almost certainly not going to be competing for the playoffs this year, the next two months of Lester have almost no value to this team.  Basically anything that you can get for him that is under control for six years will return at least equal value to Lester, and is about as likely or more likely to return the same value as the comp. pick.
 
Now, if you think that there is no way the Sox sign him to a competitive contract, then they have slightly more reason to trade him, but it is essentially negligible.  If you think that he will sign here in the off season despite being traded, then it is a moot point.
 
The only reason not to trade him is if you still somehow believe that the Sox can sign him to a special team friendly deal that he wouldn't sign after the season ends.

 

[Ferm Sheller]

Give me a break Cafardo
 

https://twitter.com/nickcafardo/status/494243788554903552
link to tweet
 


 
No link, but I heard that the Bruins have no interest in him either.  They are tight against the salary cap.

 

[plucy]

Locker check? His stuff still there?

 

[Hairps]

 
Anyway, for anyone curious, here are the teams linked to the Sox and their top prospects as listed in the mid-season rankings. I don't have Insider, so Law won't be reflected in the table.
 

 
Thanks, Snod. It's also worth noting that of those teams PIT, STL, BAL, SEA, MIL and MIA all have recently-announced competitive balance lottery draft picks that can also be traded, (the draft slot and accompanying bonus amount, not the actual players picked next year).
 
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20140723&content_id=85929910&vkey=pr_mlb&c_id=mlb

 

[Ferm Sheller]

Locker check? His stuff still there?

 
I'm in the shitter.  Let me walk past Farrell's office in a minute and check it out.

 

[findguapo]

Give me a break Cafardo
 
 

https://twitter.com/nickcafardo/status/494243788554903552
link to tweet
 


This wins the stupidest tweet of the deadline award. The best part about it is the tweet before this, he used the word laughable regarding other people's trade deadline news.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

 
All I see is Nick Cafardo referencing a "source". Hardly concrete at all.

 
Edes had an email from Seth Levinson denying report that his side had told the Sox what it would take to resign Lester.  http://espn.go.com/boston/mlb/story/_/id/11280544/agent-boston-red-sox-pitcher-jon-lester-denies-report-contract-demands-led-trade-talks

 

[Corsi]

 

Jon Morosi ‏@jonmorosi  1m
As I just said on @FOXSports1, it's increasingly likely Jon Lester will be scratched from tomorrow's start due to trade talks.
 

 

[HomeRunBaker]

 

Yeah whether he's traded (obviously likely) or not it simply isn't fair to put Lester in that situation of preparing for a start on the day of the trade deadline. Worse case you can push him back a day if he's still here. Zero chance he goes tomorrow imo.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

This wins the stupidest tweet of the deadline award. The best part about it is the tweet before this, he used the word laughable regarding other people's trade deadline news.

What's marvelous, and quintessentially Cafardian, about it is that it lies in the perfect middle ground between two poles of credibility. It's equally impossible to believe that even Cafardo is dumb enough to tweet this seriously, or that he is subtle enough to do it with tongue in cheek.

 

[Corsi]

 

Rob Bradford ‏@bradfo  1m
As of this moment, it doesn't appear Blue Jays have what it takes to get Lester
 

 

[snowmanny]

That Blue Jays tweet is interesting because they do have prospects in BAs top 50. Does it mean they aren't offering them or they aren't enough?

 

[AbbyNoho]

The tweet means essentially nothing, just like pretty much all the tweets you're going to read between now and Thursday at 4pm. 

 

[RedOctober3829]

That Blue Jays tweet is interesting because they do have prospects in BAs top 50. Does it mean they aren't offering them or they aren't enough?

They're in an interesting situation. They have some ammo to use but don't have much beyond the top 2 or 3 due to the wad they gave to Miami. Yet they are right in it and desperately need a starter. Do they go for it?

 

[tomdeplonty]

If they somehow made the deal, would Lester be starting against the Red Sox tomorrow night? 
 
The way things are going, he could have his second no-hitter without breaking a sweat.

 

[MakMan44]

They're in an interesting situation. They have some ammo to use but don't have much beyond the top 2 or 3 due to the wad they gave to Miami. Yet they are right in it and desperately need a starter. Do they go for it?

I think they have to. They gutted their system, and now when they a real shot at winning the division is when they say no?

 

[NJ Fan]

This wins the stupidest tweet of the deadline award. The best part about it is the tweet before this, he used the word laughable regarding other people's trade deadline news.

I would actually argue that the stupidest tweet were the 16 RTs of his tweet.

 

[Marbleheader]

Not just Miami, the Mets as well. They cashed out. Plenty of other teams with more to offer.

 

[DaubachmanTurnerOD]

That Blue Jays tweet is interesting because they do have prospects in BAs top 50. Does it mean they aren't offering them or they aren't enough?

Or it could mean that the Sox are looking for position players rather than pitchers, in which case the Jays probably don't have the impact level position player prospect the Sox would be targeting.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Been tweeting back and forth with Jim Duquette. He seems to think Baltimore would do a Bundy+ for Lester but draws the line at Gausman. I suggested Gausman for Lester straight up and he said it'd be fair but no.

 

[21st Century Sox]

It's only fun if Lester returns at the end of the season.

 
I have come to believe that the Sox have no intention of bringing back Lester. I think they will make some type of tepid offer, and lament that he gets a big deal. If they were really looking to bring him back....I think it would have been done early this spring.

 

[RedOctober3829]

The Pirates are willing to part with a club source called a significant package of prospects in a trade but dont want to give up their very best minor leaguers because they would have Lester only for the short term.

The Pirates are willing to trade any of their prospects except right-handers Tyler Glasnow, Nick Kingham and Jameson Taillon, catcher Reese McGuire and outfielders Josh Bell and Austin Meadows.

Among the significant prospects the Pirates apparently would be willing to give up -- in some combination -- are right-handers Luis Heredia and Adrian Sampson, third baseman Wyatt Mathisen, shortstops Alen Hanson and Jacoby Jones and outfielder Harold Ramirez.

The potential exists for a blockbuster trade. The Pirates also have interest in a pair of Red Sox relievers -- closer Koji Uehara and left-hander Andrew Miller -- and right-handed hitting outfielder Jonny Gomes to platoon with rookie right fielder Gregory Polanco. Uehara, Miller and Carp are also eligible for free agency in November.

Starling Marte and Pedro Alvarez also could be included if the Red Sox include players who would be under club control beyond this season such as left-hander Felix Doubront, first baseman/outfielder Mike Carp or third baseman Will Middlebrooks.

While the Pirates first priority is to make a trade with the Red Sox, they continue to have conversations with various other teams. But they would like to get something done with Boston in the next days with the belief adding Lester would swing the balance of power their way in the National League Central race.

http://m.timesonline.com/sports/pirates/pirates-interested-in-lester-maybe-more-from-red-sox/article_278710eb-b95e-5fc8-a0ca-d1b4c71d0439.html?mode=jqm

 

[MakMan44]

I know he's been injured pretty frequently this season but if the Red Sox have a real shot at getting Marte, they should do that. 

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Been tweeting back and forth with Jim Duquette. He seems to think Baltimore would do a Bundy+ for Lester but draws the line at Gausman. I suggested Gausman for Lester straight up and he said it'd be fair but no.

Can you give me the scoop on why Gausman is a big deal? I can see that he was drafted #4 overall and has been ranked as high as #10, but....why? He doesn't seem to have been especially good at getting people out at any professional level, except AA, which he was in for all of 8 starts and wasn't that good in. He hasn't been especially young for any of his levels, either. And he's been thoroughly ordinary in the bigs so far, not that that matters much in <100 innings.
 
What's the secret sauce? Why is this guy considered elite in spite of his meh accomplishments so far?

 

[RedOctober3829]

Can you give me the scoop on why Gausman is a big deal? I can see that he was drafted #4 overall and has been ranked as high as #10, but....why? He doesn't seem to have been especially good at getting people out at any professional level, except AA, which he was in for all of 8 starts and wasn't that good in. He hasn't been especially young for any of his levels, either. And he's been thoroughly ordinary in the bigs so far, not that that matters much in <100 innings.
 
What's the secret sauce? Why is this guy considered elite in spite of his meh accomplishments so far?

Because he throws 95-99 with filthy breaking stuff. He's absolutely nasty. I think they've rushed him a bit, but his stuff speaks for itself.

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

http://m.timesonline.com/sports/pirates/pirates-interested-in-lester-maybe-more-from-red-sox/article_278710eb-b95e-5fc8-a0ca-d1b4c71d0439.html?mode=jqm

If they aren't willing to deal any of those prospects they go to the bottom of the list. Unless Polanco is available...

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

I know he's been injured pretty frequently this season but if the Red Sox have a real shot at getting Marte, they should do that. 

 
The injuries don't worry me as much as the ghastly plate discipline.
 
If the yield described in that post is the best we can do, I'd almost rather hang on and take the pick.

 

[glennhoffmania]

http://m.timesonline.com/sports/pirates/pirates-interested-in-lester-maybe-more-from-red-sox/article_278710eb-b95e-5fc8-a0ca-d1b4c71d0439.html?mode=jqm

 
In this quote he says both that Carp is eligible for FA after this year and he'd still be under club control.

 

[DourDoerr]

How much will the Russell-Samarzidja trade have established Lester's market?  Though his contract expires at the end of the season, unlike Samarzidja's, Lester has serious post-season credentials for any team in the hunt for a World Series win.  He could easily be a big part of any championship push and give his new team a giant boost.  Oakland threw its biggest chip into the pot, now some team may feel more comfortable matching with their biggest chip.

 

[ElcaballitoMVP]

"The Pirates are willing to part with a club source called a significant package of prospects in a trade but dont want to give up their very best minor leaguers because they would have Lester only for the short term."
 
http://m.timesonline.com/sports/pirates/pirates-interested-in-lester-maybe-more-from-red-sox/article_278710eb-b95e-5fc8-a0ca-d1b4c71d0439.html?mode=jqm

 
We'll give up a significant package so long as it doesn't include our #1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 7 prospects (according to MLB.com)!  
 
I know they have a deep system, but I'm not interested if this is really the case. 

 

[MakMan44]

 
The injuries don't worry me as much as the ghastly plate discipline.
 
If the yield described in that post is the best we can do, I'd almost rather hang on and take the pick.

Yeah, that's a fair point. I think 2013 made it clear that he can make his lack of plate discipline work in the majors, and he's on a incredibly team friendly deal. 

 

[dcmissle]

Been tweeting back and forth with Jim Duquette. He seems to think Baltimore would do a Bundy+ for Lester but draws the line at Gausman. I suggested Gausman for Lester straight up and he said it'd be fair but no.

Interesting .

Dan knows well that this would go a long way to wiping out 15+ years of suck since Peter Angelos decided he knew better than Pat Gillick. Dan must remember from his perch with the RS that those Orioles teams were spoken of in the same breath as the Yanks and RS, had very healthy payrolls, and comparable attendance. Sometimes you just need to take the plunge

 

[dcmissle]

Because he throws 95-99 with filthy breaking stuff. He's absolutely nasty. I think they've rushed him a bit, but his stuff speaks for itself.

And so it was with Ben McDonald

 

[Rough Carrigan]

That Blue Jays tweet is interesting because they do have prospects in BAs top 50. Does it mean they aren't offering them or they aren't enough?

C.  It means that Cherington is prodding them, through an intermediary, to up their bid?

 

[ivanvamp]

Because he throws 95-99 with filthy breaking stuff. He's absolutely nasty. I think they've rushed him a bit, but his stuff speaks for itself.

 
If he's such a good hitter, why doesn't he hit good?