Troy Tulowitzki to ask for trade?
- Thread starter soxhop411
- Start date
Edit: Responding to Mak instead...
I'm pretty sure that's pretty close to what it would take. They could ship Gregorius back as well, and add one of their fireballer relievers to round out the package. They have the chips.
MakMan44 said:
I'm pretty sure that's pretty close to what it would take. They could ship Gregorius back as well, and add one of their fireballer relievers to round out the package. They have the chips.
Tulo might find himself disappointed. Who would be interested in him, even? The Mets, Padres I guess... who else, even?
I don't think he's going anywhere unless the Mets panic and give up too much (unlikely) as his perceived value by the Colorado fans and owner is probably quite a bit more than his actual value. Joel Sherman covers it quite well in the article in the first post in this thread.
Aaron Judge is the future of the Yankees. I call him untouchable. And if they trade him, I am done with this organization.
Fangraphs breaks the situation down, though their idea of "favorites" seems a stretch.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/lets-think-about-a-troy-tulowitzki-trade/
The next entry and the next words in the piece... The New York Yankees.
I don't see the Red Sox giving up on Bogearts for the right to pay Tulo another 100+ million and hope he stays healthy. At worst, Bogaerts is a serviceable shortstop. If he continues to improve (and at his age you'd expect him to), he should provide them with comfortably above average play for the position for as long as they would control Tulo anyway. Like the Hamels trade speculation, Tulo is being paid market value already, so the cost should reflect that. When you add in that the Sox don't have a gaping hole at the position any chances of a deal happening appear to evaporate quickly.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/lets-think-about-a-troy-tulowitzki-trade/
The next entry and the next words in the piece... The New York Yankees.
I don't see the Red Sox giving up on Bogearts for the right to pay Tulo another 100+ million and hope he stays healthy. At worst, Bogaerts is a serviceable shortstop. If he continues to improve (and at his age you'd expect him to), he should provide them with comfortably above average play for the position for as long as they would control Tulo anyway. Like the Hamels trade speculation, Tulo is being paid market value already, so the cost should reflect that. When you add in that the Sox don't have a gaping hole at the position any chances of a deal happening appear to evaporate quickly.
30 years old, 6 years left on the contract, hasn't had a 500 AB season since 2011, and Colorado's payroll looks pretty spiky (in a bad way for them) the last 2 seasons.
Surface big name speculation aside, i'd guess a willingness alone to eat Tulo's contract in it's entirety goes a long way in behind the scenes talks. He's not commanding a major prospect haul imo.
Surface big name speculation aside, i'd guess a willingness alone to eat Tulo's contract in it's entirety goes a long way in behind the scenes talks. He's not commanding a major prospect haul imo.
COL's getting bit by the contract lengths of Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez, whose remaining three years ($16 million, $17 million, $20 million through age 31) aren't as friendly-looking as they once were before last year's patella tear and subsequent surgery.
moondog80 said:
That's assuming he can stick at SS and stays fairly healthy, both big assumptions.
I'll go as far as to say I'm not sure I'd trade Gregorius and his .518 OPS straight up for Tulo, I certainly wouldn't trade Bogaerts for him. On top of everything else, he's got large career home/road splits (.959 OPS at home, .817 on the road). Give me the young guys who can be optioned or replaced easily if they're not working out, no one needs another aging millstone who will likely continue to get worse on D and can't be removed from the lineup or cut because his contract is too big.
moondog80 said:
Joel Sherman disagrees in that initial article, FWIW.
"Ramirez got a four-year, $88 million contract this past offseason. Tulowitzki began this season with six years at $118 million left. As a free agent, Tulowitzki probably receives something between those two figures."
moondog80 said:
Hamels might be a touch below when you factor in his option year dropping his AAV to 22 million, but the cost in prospects will offset that easily. Tulo, however, is not a bargain unless you assume good health going forward which just isn't realistic. He's averaged 120 games played per season so far in his career (excluding his cup of coffee in 2006). There is no reason to assume he'll be healthier going forward. I think 20 million is probably fair value for him, given how good he is when he's actually on the field, but I'm gonna have a tough time swallowing the idea that he's paid below market value.
jon abbey said:
While I'm bearish on acquiring Tulo, this is nuts. Healthy only goes so far and if you are getting nothing at the plate from Didi, you're far better off with 120 games a year from Tulo and the hope that the games he misses are in the first half of the season rather than down the stretch.
Snodgrass'Muff said:
Well, you need to factor in cost, health, and defensive ability.
I'm not saying I wouldn't do it, but it's far from a layup IMO (and it's a moot point because NY has already made it clear through sources they're not interested).
jon abbey said:
Here's what he wrote last July in the trade value column:
"It’s going to take a ridiculous haul to get him out of Colorado, though, and rightfully so. Even with $130 million left on his deal, Tulowitzki is making about a little more than half of his market value. As a six win player, Tulo is worth something in the range of $35 to $40 million to per year, so while he might not be cheap, he’s still an amazing value, even while making $20 million per season."
EDIT: The Quote above is from Fangrahps' Joe Sheehan, in his annual trade value column last July, where Tulo was ranked 6th.
Dave Cameron wrote that, I was quoting Joel Sherman.
It's also worth noting that according to Fangraphs, in the real world, he has literally never been a 6 WAR player even at his peak.
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3531&position=SS
Also Tulo had hip surgery to fix a torn labrum since that Cameron column, and doesn't seem to be back to himself yet.
It's also worth noting that according to Fangraphs, in the real world, he has literally never been a 6 WAR player even at his peak.
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3531&position=SS
Also Tulo had hip surgery to fix a torn labrum since that Cameron column, and doesn't seem to be back to himself yet.
jon abbey said:
Right, my bad; Cameron write the Tulo article today, I thought that's what you were referring to. Nonetheless, I'm aware of Tulo's shortcomings (I don't want the Sox to get him) but his current AAV is below what Rick Porcello just signed for. I have a hard time thinking he wouldn't do better than his current deal.
moondog80 said:
Porcello is 4 years younger and doesn't have an injury history holding his value down.
Snodgrass'Muff said:
Yeah, that would be nuts to refuse to give up Didi for Tulo. I don't know how one could say that with a straight face.
And why are we supposed to care what Sherman thinks Tulo may get as a FA? Not to mention he's comparing him with a guy who supposedly took a discount to come to Boston and he's no longer a SS, so it's hardly apples to apples. I'd be shocked if Tulo couldn't get more than $118m today.
If I'm starting a team from scratch, I definitely trade Didi for Tulo and roll the dice on him staying healthy and able to play a competent SS. Given NY's other salary commitments and personnel, I'm much less sure (and that was what I was talking about).
Snodgrass'Muff said:
Right, but the difference in production is staggering, even if we penalize Tulo for the missed time. Porcello's best season of WAR was last year, 4.0, the only time he was ever over 3. Tulo has had 6 seasons with a WAR over 5. Last year he played 91 games and still put up a WAR of 5.5.
Joel Sherman is insane if he thinks Tulo would get less than what Hanley did. Hanley is a year older, a liability in the field, and is pretty injury prone himself. Plus Hanley signed for what most people thought was below market.
EDIT: Joel Sherman, not Joe Sheehan.
moondog80 said:
Single season WAR is problematic and is a poor way to compare players (especially hitters to pitchers) even if that's what it's designed to do. You're also dinging Porcello for not being dominant at the major league level at ages where most other pitchers are still in the minors. The discussion on Porcello's value has been driven in the ground, though, so I won't rehash it here. I'll just leave it at Tulo's inability to stay on the field puts serious downward pressure on his real world value. That he's still likely worth 20 million a year while only giving you 120 games a year says a lot about how good he is when he's healthy, but you'll need to do better than WAR to convince me that he's being paid below market value.
This thread demonstrates why tulo probably isn't going anywhere.
If interested teams view his contract and expect a discount for taking it on, the Rockies won't budge. They don't see it that way, especially since he is the face of the franchise and they've taken heat in recent years for having a perceived low payroll. If a team wants him and the full contract and is willing to part with a decent package, a deal could get done. But the number of teams who have the luxury to do that is limited, and the rocks will certainly want frontline pitching in return, which further limits potential trade partners.
If interested teams view his contract and expect a discount for taking it on, the Rockies won't budge. They don't see it that way, especially since he is the face of the franchise and they've taken heat in recent years for having a perceived low payroll. If a team wants him and the full contract and is willing to part with a decent package, a deal could get done. But the number of teams who have the luxury to do that is limited, and the rocks will certainly want frontline pitching in return, which further limits potential trade partners.
Good find. I can assure you the Rox front office agrees with this and will view a potential trade through this lens.moondog80 said:
Oh, and talk of trading tulo isn't new. This has been on ongoing local discussion for several years now.
*sigh* Todd Helton v2.0Sox and Rocks said:
It will be nice when the trade value of a star player aligns more with contemporary reality than ingrained feelings left over from when we were all trading baseball cards. Until then it's just recycled content for lazy writers.
Per MLBN, Tulo left tonight's game with left quad tightness. That should be 2 months and end the trade speculation given Tulo's injury track record.