UMass hoops 2013-14 - Tourney or Bust
- Thread starter gmogmo
- Start date
Tonight's game vs LaSalle is on CBS Sports Network. A slow start (7-7 tie 4:38 in), but dominated play thereafter and built a 16-point lead at the half, 43-27.
Not that the outcome is in danger, but they've been a lot less sharp in the 2nd half on both ends of the floor, but especially on offense. Treading water on the scoreboard, now up 14 with just over 5:00 to play. Shot selection and rebounding haven't been nearly as smart or authoritative.
So you guys drop out of the rankings and the team's not worth watching anymore?!?!? Down by 4 at the half against a dangerous but young URI team...
Why does this team suck on the road? They look like garbage again in the first half of this one. Lalanne looks fucking awful down low and is getting everything stripped or blocked.
URI sucks just like George Mason and they're making them look great.
URI sucks just like George Mason and they're making them look great.
It is amazing the difference between them at home and on the road. It's not like these places they are playing are very hostile.BoSoxFink said:
Lalanne is completely unable to handle the a double team as well. Too often he tries to go up through it rather than passing to the open man
Umass was up 51-45 early in the second half until they let URI go on a 15-4 run and URI is now up 60-55 with 15 minutes left. The umass defense is a joke on the road.
BoSoxFink said:
URI is actually a sneaky good team. They took SLU right to the wire, won on the road against LSU, beat Dayton, and nearly beat St. Joes on the road. They're just a young team that doesn't quite know how to win yet. Actually, they remind me a lot of GW last season. GW started four freshmen last season and finished just 13-17, but dig into the schedule and you see that they lost to Kansas State by 3, lost at Rutgers by 3, lost to Butler by 3, beat UMass on the road, land ost to Temple by 2. GW didn't really come out of nowhere this season as the narrative suggests, those four freshmen just grew up.
Helmet Head said:
12 of 32 from the floor (37.5%) including 5 of 15 on threes, while getting out-rebounded 23-20. Trey Davis (2/5 on threes, 0/1 inside the arc) has apparently turned back into a pumpkin. So once again everything's apparently falling on Chaz's shoulders, and he isn't responding (3/9 overall, 1/5 on threes). Derrick Gordon's been quite the goat as well (1/4 shooting with 3 turnovers).
On the other hand Mason's only shooting 44.4% (16/36) so it's not like they're running away with things. UMass is simply imploding on their own possessions, and even though I'm not watching I'm willing to bet it comes down to impatience and shitty shot selection.
Great. Consecutive turnovers (Lalanne, Carter) lead to consecutive GMU baskets to start the 2nd half. Then UMass misses all three shots on their next possession leading to another Patriots basket.
Down 16 now.
Timeout barely 2 minutes in. Way to get them re-focused at halftime, Kellogg.
Down 16 now.
Timeout barely 2 minutes in. Way to get them re-focused at halftime, Kellogg.
Down by 16 now.mabrowndog said:
I am not watching the game but it also does not look like they are playing any D at all.
What a horrendous loss this would be.
They are playing their way out of the tourney pretty quickly.
This team is mediocre at best. That's really all there is to it. They greatly played over their heads early in the year. Their next two games are most likely losses against GW and VCU, which puts them at 6-6 in the A-10, with 2 more likely losses against St Louis and Dayton. I can see an 8-8 finish possibly. They may end up on the bubble at this rate or worse.
BoSoxFink said:
Yup. The only attribute they've been able to lean on through thick & thin is their pressure defense. Their shooting is woefully inconsistent, and IMO it all stems from their bigs being wildly overrated. They just can't be depended on to 1) muscle defenders to get open down low, 2) hold onto the ball when they do get open and they're targeted with a catchable pass, or 3) put it in the hoop when they do. That puts more pressure on the guards, especially Chaz, to be the heroes. Zone defenses don't have to pack their forwards as tightly in the key, so they can cheat towards the perimeter and defend outside shots a little easier. And once UM gets down by double digits, they just seem to resort to threes by default.
They've cut it to 12 with 11:49 left, but it's going to require another cardiac comeback down the stretch -- against a team that's 1-8 in A-10 play. Pathetic.
They cut it to 10 under 3:00, but Esho just fouled out.
UMass has missed 10 of their 26 free throws. Along with their anemic 27.3% shooting on threes (6/22), there's your culprit.
UMass has missed 10 of their 26 free throws. Along with their anemic 27.3% shooting on threes (6/22), there's your culprit.
More pressure D forcing turnovers. Davis hits 2 FTs. Lead down to 7 with 1:46 left.
EDIT - UMass fouls, GMU hits both shots, Davis answers with a bucket. Still down 7, timeout with 1:23 left.
EDIT - UMass fouls, GMU hits both shots, Davis answers with a bucket. Still down 7, timeout with 1:23 left.
They beat the press and Byron Allen gets a layup, GMU's first bucket in almost 3 minutes. But it's a big one. UMass down 9 with 1:10 left.
EDIT - Davis turnover. That ought to do it.
EDIT - In the last 10:00 of the game, GMU has made 15 of 18 free throws. That's how you win ball games.
EDIT - Davis turnover. That ought to do it.
EDIT - In the last 10:00 of the game, GMU has made 15 of 18 free throws. That's how you win ball games.
BoSoxFink said:
No. This was their first bad loss and if the season ended today they'd be in--but their margin for error is disappearing. There are four more good losses on their schedule: at GW, VCU, at Dayton, SLU. Those are the three best teams in the conference and a fourth team that was in the top 25 earlier this season and is extremely tough at home. They could go 1-3 in that stretch and it wouldn't kill the resume. The games against URI and Duquesne are now must wins though--a loss to the sub-200 Dukes would end the season and loss to the sub-100 Rams would put it on life support.
so you think that 8-8 in the A-10 will get them in? I just don't see thatOrel Miraculous said:
BoSoxFink said:
No. 1-3 in the stretch stretch against the good teams and 2-0 against URI and DU would leave them at 9-7, which I think would be enough. That would leave them with, at worst, a 3-5 record against top 50 teams (with an opportunity to make that 4-4 if they notch the 1 win against GWU, VCU, or SLU instead of Dayton), a 9-3 record against teams 51-100, and only 1 sub-100 loss. That's a tournament resume.
Like I said though, there's no more margin for error. If they were to go 8-8 instead I think they'd have to make it to the A10 championship game--knocking off one of the GWU/VCU/SLU trifecta along the way--in order to get an at-large bid.
Orel Miraculous said:
That's a solid breakdown of where they're at.
They went into last night's game ranked 12th in RPI based on Lunardi's model. (College Basketball News had them 11th, but I'll go with the less optimistic version; besides, CBN doesn't yet have updated figures beyond last Sunday). This morning they're 20th. It was a costly loss, but not a devastating one. It's the first time all season they haven't been the top-ranked A-10 team, as they're now 5 spots behind St. Louis, yet even after that debacle they're still ahead of both VCU (23) and GW (26).
FWIW, with Richmond & St. Joe's ranked 41 & 44 respectively, that's 6 teams in the top 44 for the A-10. Pretty damn good for a league that lost Xavier & Butler while other power conferences (Big East, ACC) had significant net additions. For comparison:
6 = Big 12
6 = Big Ten
5 = Pac 12
5 = ACC
5 = AAC
3 = Big East
2 = SEC
2 = MWC
As of this moment, the A-10 is no longer a mid-major. The problem is that they're still bottom-heavy in the RPI. It isn't just that UMass has a slim margin of error in terms of the outcomes they control, it's that their fortunes will also be tied to conference depth -- and right now that's tenuous. Richmond & St. Joe's are already walking the NIT tightrope. A bad loss or two by either school and/or an early tourney exit not only knocks them out of contention, it drags down the whole conference in terms of perceived strength, even more so than calculated strength.
I'm not saying all six A-10 teams can make the field simultaneously with strong runs by Richmond & St. Joe's. Rather, it's likely four at most unless there's a surprise conference tourney winner become the 5th. No matter what the spreadsheets say, the A-10 isn't yet a power broker with the selection committee, so the dice need to roll a certain way to get more than four schools in.
I believe UMass's biggest obstacle, based on the track record of bubble team selections, is finishing cold down the stretch, especially since they end against St. Louis. Even if they beat both GW and VCU coming up, if they choke on 2 of their subsequent 3 games (against Duquense, URI & Dayton) and then lose to the Billikens, failing to make the A-10 quarterfinals would leave them losers of 4 of their last 6. At that point you'd probably stick a fork in them regardless of RPI.
I still think the product quality being displayed on the court lately is closer to reality for UMass than the overall ratings suggest, even if the data show I'm being far too critical. But I won't complain if the numbers work out in their favor.
mabrowndog said:
Actually most of the data agree with what your eyes are telling you. It's pretty much only RPI (which is a very crude calculation, though undeniably used by the committee) that says UMass is a top 25 level team.
KenPom, Sevenovertimes, and Sagarin (except his Elo ranking, which is a similar calculation to RPI) all have UMass around #50, much different than its #20 RPI. Now, I think that if UMass finishes with an RPI of 20, its definitely in. But if that number moves more toward 30, they are going to be very much a bubble team, and people should not be surprised if they're left out like Southern Miss last year.
WayBackVazquez said:
While I agree they are not a top 25 team, they definitely a top 50 with a pretty solid resume. Which should put them comfortably in the tournament field absent finishing the season in a complete tailspin (i.e 0-6 or 1-5 finish). Southern Miss is actually a pretty poor comparison for UMass, as Southern Miss despite having a good RPI had a pretty empty resume (0.5 vs RPI top 50 and 3-7 vs RPI top 100). While UMass is currently 3-2 vs. the RPI Top 50 and 11-4 vs RPI top 100, they also have a great opportunity to further improve their resume with 3 games left in their regular season schedule vs the RPI top 25 (2 of those at home). I think winning 1 of those three games almost certainly gives them an at large bid. As I mentioned earlier the only thing I could see knocking them out would be a really bad finish, coupled with an early exit from the A10 tournament.
Alright Massholes, as someone who grew up rooting for Coach Cal's Refuse to Lose squads and then went to GW and saw them make three NCAA tournaments in a row, tomorrow's game has been circled on my calendar for a while now. This game represents a chance for you guys to grab your best win of the season, so here's a little primer on what to watch for.
Who do you need to watch out for in GW's starting five?
All of them. The answer is all of them. GW has the best starting five in the league and I'm not sure it's even that close. Since that's not very helpful for you, though, here's a little bit on each one of them.
Joe McDonald, So. PG. A physically strong, box score-stuffing point guard who was on his way to having a breakout sophomore campaign before he re-aggravated an old hip injury. The hip is so bad that he doesn't even practice any more and it's made him much more cautious on the floor, but he's still a good not great outside shooter who sets up the offense and grabs more rebounds than a guy his size should. He won't go to the hole much to protect his hip, be he's a strong finisher when he does.
Maurice Creek, Grad SG. Creek was one of the top freshman in the country at Indiana in 2009. Five years and multiple surgeries later he's GW's best scorer and their leader on the floor. He's streaky from three, but he can and has lit it up for 20 plus points many times this season.
Patricio Garino, So. SF. An Argentine who works out with Manu Ginobli on the national team each summer, Garino is the best all-around player and best NBA prospect on the team. He's very long, very athletic, very good with the ball in his hands, and has a beautiful stroke (though for some reason his shooting percentages haven't caught up to it--they will eventually, he's too fluid not to be an above average shooter). He's also the best on-ball defender on the team and is the deadly point in the spear of GW's signature 1-3-1 zone.
Isaiah Armwood, Sr. F. Armwood transferred from Villanova a few years ago and has been one of the A-10's best defenders from day one. He's prolific shot-blocker and rebounder and though he can sometimes play a little out of control with the ball in his hands, he's been on an offensive tear lately.
Kevin Larsen, So. F. Last year (and for most of the first part of this season) Larsen was an out-of-shape Danish freshman who showed flashes of an advanced back-to-the-basket post game but lacked aggression. Since January, all he has been is one of the best big men in the league (and he's still Danish). He's strong and nimble underneath the hoop and is great at making space and passing out of the post. He's even starting to defend the rim on the defensive side. Simply put, he's been a revelation and is going to make all-league teams for years to come.
Who do you need to watch out for on the bench?
No one. The answer is no one. GW's bench is putrid. A month and a half ago Kethan Savage broke his foot. Savage was averaging 13 ppg and was one the nation's top players in offensive efficiency at the time. The bench was already shallow and when that injury forced Garino into the starting lineup, it became absolutely bone dry. John Kopriva will get some playing time, but he's nothing more than a decent rebounder/charge-taker. Nemanja Mikic was one of the best three point shooters in the country as a freshman, but his offensive game now consists solely of rimming out wide open corner threes. Miguel Cartagena has been forced to play more minutes than he should because of the backcourt injuries and when he enters the game UMass should immediately trap him; he will respond by kindly handing the ball to the defender.
What does GW do on offense?
Everything, and it's really hard to stop. Every single player in GW's starting lineup has scored 20 points in a game this season and they all get their points in different ways. It's a dynamic, motion-oriented offense that employs a lot of baseline cuts and a lot of ball movement designed to generate open looks, which they get a lot of. It's impossible for defenses to key in on any one player or any one style. If they have an offensive weakness, it's that the outside shooting has a tendency to come and go. Get em on a night when the shots aren't falling and you have a chance; if they are falling, then I hope you like fireworks.
What does GW do on defense?
They mix things up to deliberately keep the other team from getting in any kind of rhythm. They'll start with a man-to-man (albeit one where everyone will switch) and then break into a devastating 1-3-1 halfcourt trap when they need to. Garino plays the very quick point of the 1-3-1, and he's tall, and long, and great at closing out on the ball handler. Inside, Armwood is a tremendous shotblocker and he'll be waiting for anyone who does manage to get into the lane. What they don't do too well, is transition defense.
So how can UMass win this game?
-Make outside shots against the 1-3-1. Force them to go back to the man defense and open up lanes for dribble drives, which you guys do pretty well.
-Press and run. We turn the ball over too much to begin with and our backcourt is banged up and shallow right now. This plays to one of Umass's strengths in that you guys have a pretty good press which can force us into mistakes. When those mistakes do happen, push, push, push up the court. For some reason we can never get back in transition.
-Slow down Larsen. We'll start the game by immediately trying to Larsen going down low, which opens things up for our guards. LaLanne and Putney are both big and athletic enough to slow us down in the low post though. How they play against Larsen and Armwood will be one of the key factors in the game.
Just kidding. You can't win this game.
Sorry, I just lied to you. The Smith Center is a raucous bandbox of a gym and we've been absolutely unstoppable there this season. And bear in mind, when I say unstoppable, I don't only mean that no one's beaten us at home, I mean that no one's even been competitive. Over the last two months, our closest margin of victory at the Smith Center was a 10 point win against VCU. During that stretch we've averaged over 80 ppg at home and beaten Georgia by 18, LaSalle by 22, and Fordham by 25 to name just a few beat downs. The students are right up against the sideline, fans are hanging over the court behind each hoop, and it's a crowd that's been hungry for big-time college basketball. It's the lion's den.
Good luck!
Who do you need to watch out for in GW's starting five?
All of them. The answer is all of them. GW has the best starting five in the league and I'm not sure it's even that close. Since that's not very helpful for you, though, here's a little bit on each one of them.
Joe McDonald, So. PG. A physically strong, box score-stuffing point guard who was on his way to having a breakout sophomore campaign before he re-aggravated an old hip injury. The hip is so bad that he doesn't even practice any more and it's made him much more cautious on the floor, but he's still a good not great outside shooter who sets up the offense and grabs more rebounds than a guy his size should. He won't go to the hole much to protect his hip, be he's a strong finisher when he does.
Maurice Creek, Grad SG. Creek was one of the top freshman in the country at Indiana in 2009. Five years and multiple surgeries later he's GW's best scorer and their leader on the floor. He's streaky from three, but he can and has lit it up for 20 plus points many times this season.
Patricio Garino, So. SF. An Argentine who works out with Manu Ginobli on the national team each summer, Garino is the best all-around player and best NBA prospect on the team. He's very long, very athletic, very good with the ball in his hands, and has a beautiful stroke (though for some reason his shooting percentages haven't caught up to it--they will eventually, he's too fluid not to be an above average shooter). He's also the best on-ball defender on the team and is the deadly point in the spear of GW's signature 1-3-1 zone.
Isaiah Armwood, Sr. F. Armwood transferred from Villanova a few years ago and has been one of the A-10's best defenders from day one. He's prolific shot-blocker and rebounder and though he can sometimes play a little out of control with the ball in his hands, he's been on an offensive tear lately.
Kevin Larsen, So. F. Last year (and for most of the first part of this season) Larsen was an out-of-shape Danish freshman who showed flashes of an advanced back-to-the-basket post game but lacked aggression. Since January, all he has been is one of the best big men in the league (and he's still Danish). He's strong and nimble underneath the hoop and is great at making space and passing out of the post. He's even starting to defend the rim on the defensive side. Simply put, he's been a revelation and is going to make all-league teams for years to come.
Who do you need to watch out for on the bench?
No one. The answer is no one. GW's bench is putrid. A month and a half ago Kethan Savage broke his foot. Savage was averaging 13 ppg and was one the nation's top players in offensive efficiency at the time. The bench was already shallow and when that injury forced Garino into the starting lineup, it became absolutely bone dry. John Kopriva will get some playing time, but he's nothing more than a decent rebounder/charge-taker. Nemanja Mikic was one of the best three point shooters in the country as a freshman, but his offensive game now consists solely of rimming out wide open corner threes. Miguel Cartagena has been forced to play more minutes than he should because of the backcourt injuries and when he enters the game UMass should immediately trap him; he will respond by kindly handing the ball to the defender.
What does GW do on offense?
Everything, and it's really hard to stop. Every single player in GW's starting lineup has scored 20 points in a game this season and they all get their points in different ways. It's a dynamic, motion-oriented offense that employs a lot of baseline cuts and a lot of ball movement designed to generate open looks, which they get a lot of. It's impossible for defenses to key in on any one player or any one style. If they have an offensive weakness, it's that the outside shooting has a tendency to come and go. Get em on a night when the shots aren't falling and you have a chance; if they are falling, then I hope you like fireworks.
What does GW do on defense?
They mix things up to deliberately keep the other team from getting in any kind of rhythm. They'll start with a man-to-man (albeit one where everyone will switch) and then break into a devastating 1-3-1 halfcourt trap when they need to. Garino plays the very quick point of the 1-3-1, and he's tall, and long, and great at closing out on the ball handler. Inside, Armwood is a tremendous shotblocker and he'll be waiting for anyone who does manage to get into the lane. What they don't do too well, is transition defense.
So how can UMass win this game?
-Make outside shots against the 1-3-1. Force them to go back to the man defense and open up lanes for dribble drives, which you guys do pretty well.
-Press and run. We turn the ball over too much to begin with and our backcourt is banged up and shallow right now. This plays to one of Umass's strengths in that you guys have a pretty good press which can force us into mistakes. When those mistakes do happen, push, push, push up the court. For some reason we can never get back in transition.
-Slow down Larsen. We'll start the game by immediately trying to Larsen going down low, which opens things up for our guards. LaLanne and Putney are both big and athletic enough to slow us down in the low post though. How they play against Larsen and Armwood will be one of the key factors in the game.
Just kidding. You can't win this game.
Sorry, I just lied to you. The Smith Center is a raucous bandbox of a gym and we've been absolutely unstoppable there this season. And bear in mind, when I say unstoppable, I don't only mean that no one's beaten us at home, I mean that no one's even been competitive. Over the last two months, our closest margin of victory at the Smith Center was a 10 point win against VCU. During that stretch we've averaged over 80 ppg at home and beaten Georgia by 18, LaSalle by 22, and Fordham by 25 to name just a few beat downs. The students are right up against the sideline, fans are hanging over the court behind each hoop, and it's a crowd that's been hungry for big-time college basketball. It's the lion's den.
Good luck!
I wouldn't worry about it Orel. If Umass is going to win one of these next two, it won't be today. They will compete better at home against VCU, where the crowd should be pretty good. However with the way they have been playing recently they will lose both of these games. I'm predicting a 15 point umass loss today and it won't be close from the start as umass has been horrific at the beginning of games.
Orel Miraculous said:
Yeah, it's a modern-day Curry Hicks Cage, minus the dark dank ceiling, dim lighting, creaky seating and musty odors.
But is there any mystique or aura?
My hope is that UM finds a way to get GW into early foul trouble to force their bench into the game and perhaps remove a starter or two late. But I suspect it will play out in the opposite manner, with UMass's bigs making mental errors, the guards having to foul to stop fast breaks, and plenty of ticky-tack calls for the Colonials typical of any D-1 home court advantage.
Besides, as Fink says, maddeningly shitty starts are ingrained in this UMass team's DNA.
Yup, GW streams all their home games for free. It's a brilliant move and I dont understand why all A10 team dont do it. It builds the fan base and it's not like there's any money to be made in streaming A10 basketball anyway.
Who's the color commentator for GW? I can barely understand a word he's saying, a la Tiny Archibald or Tavis Smiley.
A 6-2 UMass lead until a pair of turnovers & fast breaks. GW can tie it with free throws following the timeout. And they do.
EDIT - Make that 3 straight turnovers. Christ...
A 6-2 UMass lead until a pair of turnovers & fast breaks. GW can tie it with free throws following the timeout. And they do.
EDIT - Make that 3 straight turnovers. Christ...
GW's guards are eerily reminiscent of Carmelo Travieso and Edgar Padilla. Fearless, in-your-face defense from both Garino and Creek, along with sound ball-handling and shot selection.
Team fouls are UMass 4, GW 2 with 11:38 left in the half.
Team fouls are UMass 4, GW 2 with 11:38 left in the half.
UMass has been in man all game. They're making it challenging for GW, who has to work the clock and the perimeter, but it's been far from impenetrable.
Relentless 1-3-1 trapping by GW. The minute the ball goes to either baseline corner, they're all over it. Frankly, UMass is lucky to only have 5 turnovers so far.
UM on a 5-0 run with a 17-15 lead, 9:00 left in the half.
Relentless 1-3-1 trapping by GW. The minute the ball goes to either baseline corner, they're all over it. Frankly, UMass is lucky to only have 5 turnovers so far.
UM on a 5-0 run with a 17-15 lead, 9:00 left in the half.
Sweet drive and finger roll by Putney from the right side of the key. Smart move not hesitating and breaking for the hoop as soon as he got the ball.
God umass is so bad on rebounds. Is it me or has Cady regressed? He looks like the laziest and softest 6-10 player I've ever seen.
Great job by Esho picking up the charge on Garino.
28-22 UMass lead. Chaz on the bench, he & Putney each have 2 fouls.
28-22 UMass lead. Chaz on the bench, he & Putney each have 2 fouls.
he gets blocked constantly anytime he gets the ball under the hoop and also constantly out worked on the boards as well. Too bad, because he has a lot of talent but doesn't give a good effort.mabrowndog said:
BoSoxFink said:
2-for-6 so far. Meanwhile, Sampson Carter's perfect (4/4) including three treys. Leading the troops with 12.
UMass has played far better than I expected. Shooting well overall (Gordon aside), winning the board battle (15-11), playing solid D (34.8% FG by GW).
Esho with a jumper puts them up 8. Sweet.
Esho with a jumper puts them up 8. Sweet.
hes good on floaters and layups near the hoop. He is a horrendous outside shooter, as evidence by the air ball he shot.mabrowndog said:
Hey, whattaya know. Gordon with the spin move down low in transition, up 10 now. At least he can make a lay-up.