Week 1 Game Thread
- Thread starter tims4wins
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People keep telling me America doesn’t have a monarchy, but how do you explain Paul Hackett’s moron son coaching an NFL team?
Watching Peyton (and Shannon squint at the screen) at the end of this game was some of the funniest shit I’ve seen in a while
View: https://mobile.twitter.com/ESPNNFL/status/1569526979870838784
View: https://mobile.twitter.com/ESPNNFL/status/1569526979870838784
yeah it was
but like i warned it was their super bowl and their draft pick it's going to be 8-9 instead of top three in a dream QB class
hackett blew the game no doubt but denver is going to be the type of team that @ loses @ Sea but couild also win @ Rams Chiefs clean up the pentles and they can still get that 7 spot in the afc
Glad you're staying positive - hang in there!
In other news:
View: https://twitter.com/NickKosmider/status/1569529711528931328?t=rQFtH0DBASxdtCrnPlAw3w&s=19
View: https://twitter.com/MySportsUpdate/status/1569530258872836097
the max range eh?
Nothing like doubling down.
well honesty it shouild had not come down to that 3rd and goal from the 1 and u run shotgun i guess denver is going to be like GB winning seasons but no playoff wins
Your team is really talented, so if Hackett can get his act together and they clean up some of the sloppy play, they will be a force to reckon with.
they're in a tough division (will anyone be surprised if they go 0-6?) and he may have lost his team
But they should be much better in goal line going forward when you have Russ and JAvonte and Jeudy
Side note, Russ' former teammates all rushing to Twitter to mock him. I don't think I've ever seen a guy who was successful, but also so universally disliked by guys he played with going all the way back to college. Seems like everybody legitimately despises him
They have one of the best home field advantages in sports so yeah I'd be quite surprised if they went 0-6.
He’s definitely a cornball and he seems really interested in his own stats (while claiming to be all about the team)
Apparently he did not trust his QB, and thought he had a better chance at making a 60+ yard FG
View: https://twitter.com/georgestoia/status/1569529548341125120?s=46&t=YwkuL2FHoD07_PAqnz0Yqg
Not like he has Wilson as his QB…
also. Why does he talk this fast. It’s giving me anxiety
View: https://twitter.com/mikeklis/status/1569529234200367112
View: https://twitter.com/georgestoia/status/1569529548341125120?s=46&t=YwkuL2FHoD07_PAqnz0Yqg
Not like he has Wilson as his QB…
also. Why does he talk this fast. It’s giving me anxiety
View: https://twitter.com/mikeklis/status/1569529234200367112
Baldwin already got posted but:
View: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2640508-russell-wilsons-former-nc-state-teammate-speaks-on-qbs-commencement-speech
https://ftw.usatoday.com/lists/richard-sherman-russell-wilson-geno-smith-outplayed-talk-about-broncos-seahawks
https://clutchpoints.com/russ-is-like-a-method-actor-patrick-mahomes-ex-teammate-explains-russell-wilson-corniness-to-broncos-fans/
I’m just trying to add to the context - I don’t think there’s ever been a 64-yarder outdoors at sea level in NFL history. It’s also very hard to get things to go far at night on the West Coast as the marine layer kicks in. I wouldn’t have been comfortable outside 50 given that and this guy chose 64 over a 4th and 5 with three timeouts and a minute left?
Every single eligible player with 10 or more pro bowl selections is in the HOF (sadly I think that Slater will test this bar), and Wilson is up to 9. That plus he's a super bowl winning QB, and he's already done enough to merit entry, plus whatever else he accomplishes (he'll be in the top 10 in career TDs when he retires).
So here’s the thing if I’m j-man. The thing I have always loved about Belichick is that he does the thing that he thinks gives the team the best chance to win. Often he is wrong but more often he is right. He doesn’t give a shit. He makes the hard call. Fuck the Monday morning QBs.
I think Hackett’s decision was a bad one one but not nearly as bad as others seem to think. All this stuff about “trusting” your QB is Monday ESPN hot take nonsense. Conversion rates on fourth and five are low 40 percent if that. And then you still have a long field goal, or maybe if you are willing to possibly put sack, holding penalty, or pick on the table maybe you get 20 yards and make it a mid-40s kick. So an 80 percent proposition.
So, 30 something percent? Was the kick higher percentage? From the result seems not. And if the ST coach was saying he only had 62 and Hackett was wishing an extra two yards that’s bad. But assuming he had the leg, if Hackett’s judgment is the chances were a few percentage points higher, good for him. That’s how you win. Make the hard fucking call when confronted with two shitty choices. Be willing to go down in flames. No coach ever got criticized because his QB threw an incompletion on fourth and 5.
Is it hard to believe he actually thought that a 64 yarder was a better chance than converting and then making a shorter kick? It is surprising. And maybe he’s a fucking moron. Or maybe he is a guy that is not afraid to make a tough call in a tough spot. That’s what I’m hoping if I’m j-man.
I think Hackett’s decision was a bad one one but not nearly as bad as others seem to think. All this stuff about “trusting” your QB is Monday ESPN hot take nonsense. Conversion rates on fourth and five are low 40 percent if that. And then you still have a long field goal, or maybe if you are willing to possibly put sack, holding penalty, or pick on the table maybe you get 20 yards and make it a mid-40s kick. So an 80 percent proposition.
So, 30 something percent? Was the kick higher percentage? From the result seems not. And if the ST coach was saying he only had 62 and Hackett was wishing an extra two yards that’s bad. But assuming he had the leg, if Hackett’s judgment is the chances were a few percentage points higher, good for him. That’s how you win. Make the hard fucking call when confronted with two shitty choices. Be willing to go down in flames. No coach ever got criticized because his QB threw an incompletion on fourth and 5.
Is it hard to believe he actually thought that a 64 yarder was a better chance than converting and then making a shorter kick? It is surprising. And maybe he’s a fucking moron. Or maybe he is a guy that is not afraid to make a tough call in a tough spot. That’s what I’m hoping if I’m j-man.
There have been four FGs in NFL history of 62+ outdoors at sea level (Bryant, Gano, Dempsey, Akers) and they were all 62-63. The odds of a kicker with a good but not great leg hitting from 64 at night on the West Coast are astronomical. You probably have a better shot at hitting a Hail Mary. You certainly have a better chance of converting 4th and 5 and getting into legitimate range with a minute left and three timeouts. It’s one thing to be bold. It’s another when the decision isn’t remotely close. I just don’t understand what was going through his mind.
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Hackett made a similar decision that Belichick made at the end of the game against the Bucs last year...except in BB's case, he was trusting his kicker to make a 56 yarder instead of trusting his rookie QB in his fourth game to convert a fourth and three, whereas Hackett was trusting his kicker to kick a 64 yarder instead of trusting a QB who has won a Super Bowl (and was one yard away from winning another) and was acquired at great expense to convert a fourth and five. That fourth and five situation is why you pay so much for a Russell Wilson.
On my phone so I don’t have a graph, but FG conversion percentages drop like a rock when you get to the end of a kicker’s range, it’s not gradual. Wouldn’t be surprised if Mcmanus’s true rates were something like 55% from 54 yards out and 2% from 64 yards out, which is way more than the 3x-4x multiplier you would need from the contingency of converting the 4th down.
I'm totally with you here. And if the decision to kick was debatable, Denver's clock management as soon as the decision to kick was made was actually perfect: bring Wilson out to the line to make Seattle think he would run a play, and use that distraction to let the clock run down to the point that Seattle would have little or no chance to come back if the kick was made. I look forward to seeing the analytics analysis of the decision.
By the way, in watching the game on DVR this morning here in the UK, I have to say that I *loved* Joe Buck's decision to go totally silent when Wilson came out on the field for his first series of the game. Not a single word from the moment the kickoff returner was tackled until the first play was over. Can you imagine Steve Levy doing that? Monday Night Football is now a television event again for me, with Buck and Aikman in the booth - I'm going to watch regardless of who the teams are.
I have to agree on the event front. I can generally tune out bad announcing, so it’s not like the booths from recent years stopped me from watching MNF, but on the flip side it was refreshing to feel like it’s a big deal again.
Sure but this thread suggests it was just a bad decision:
View: https://twitter.com/nextgenstats/status/1569566440235347968?s=46&t=aitT1FSggHN_o6i8-RRYGw
BTW, is it just SSS or do Russell Wilson’s teams seem to look like a hot mess in pressure situations? Sort of forgotten in the 2014 SB Butler heroics was that the Seahawks looked disorganized as all hell as the clock wound down after the Kearse catch (BB said as much and decided not to let them off the hook by taking a timeout). Last night, the Broncos looked just as confused on multiple occasions (first half too IIRC).
Is this a feature or a bug with Russell Wilson? Perhaps @DanoooME can offer some insight.
The Broncos had a minute left and three timeouts, if they convert the 4th and 5 odds are very high they could improve their field position enough to make it from "historic kick" to "90%+ expected conversion kick". That's a no brainer. 64 yards is just too far, even at 59 I'd be more comfortable with the decision to kick it.
Yeah, I’m not sure that any of this is Monday Morning Quarterbacking, it was just tremendously stupid coaching.
And Van Everyman is right, Russ shouldn’t get off completely scot-free here. The team was disorganized all game and he looked pretty awful. If I didn’t know that was Russell Wilson I would’ve assumed it was a rookie with some of the decision making and pre-snap problems he was having
If they hustle (instead of dawdling) and run a 4th and 5 play, still with three timeouts left, and don't make it, they STILL have a chance to win the game. Three and out (obviously that would be required), using their three TOs, would leave them, after a punt, probably at like their 10 yard line with about 40 seconds left. Obviously very difficult, but not impossible to get right back into FG range. Or heck, punt and pin Seattle back and use your three time outs in the same fashion, and there's a reasonable chance you get the ball back at your own 40 with about 40 seconds left. Granted, with no time outs left, but you only need to gain about 20 yards.
Essentially, they played this about the worst way possible.
And the Broncos D had shut down the Seahawks in the 2nd half..it really is amazing how badly Hackett and Russ botched that last drive
Wilson is the kind of QB that will always have a pristine statline and then you look at the game and the team didn't really score all that many points and couldn't ever get consistent offense going. Out of the top 10 QBs in the league he's easily the one I trust the least to carry a team, never seems to get into a rhythm.
Even on most of his completions the receiver was wide open and he was a second (or multiple seconds) late to hit them.
On the Jeudy TD, if he gets the ball out when he should have, Jeudy waltzes into the end zone. Instead he waited and then threw a duck (which probably should have been picked).
It was bad enough that Aikman, who is about as generous to QB’s out there as announcers go, was calling him out on his decision making and lack of anticipation throughout the game
He's the definition of a "see it, throw it" QB. Leads to a lot of big plays, but also a ton of sacks and questionable decision making. I don't want to be unfair, Seattle had a lot of really good offenses under him and he's one of the best players in the league at his position, I just never trust him to get a first down when his team needs one.