Week 1: Pats @ Dolphins

[soxfan121]

Sunday Sept. 7th, 1 PM, CBS, 98.5
 
Last Season: 1-1
10/27 - Dolphins 17 - Patriots 27
12/15 - Patriots 20 - Dolphins 24
 
Game one at Foxboro featured the Pats being booed off at halftime, down 17-3 but rallying in the third quarter and creating three Dolphin turnovers before it was over. 
 
Game two at Miami was also a game where the Pats attempted to come back from a deficit but Brady was picked in the end zone on 4th down with 2 seconds left. 
 
What's New in Miami?
pdaj, Clears Cleaver, sodenj5, rymflaherty, and other actual Dolphin fans would happy to preach the Gospel of Tannethrill. 
 
I'd love to add stuff like odds, spread, quatloos....I know none of it. ;-)
 
What are the key match-ups? Scared of Cameron Wake and the pass rush against a mystery offensive line? 

 

[Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt]

Scared of Wake, et all versus the no-name(-ish) OL, and scared of the humidity in Miami. I suspect the phins should be more scared, though, given the relative health of the N.E. offense and the depth of its available pass catchers, especially if Gronk is among them. Wonder if Revis will be following Hartline around all afternoon, as opposed to Mike Wallace.

Phins fans, what say you?

Edit: my typical stupid mistakes and re-thinkings.

 

[pdaj]

If never feel fantastic about a matchup with the Patriots -- at least not since 2001 or so. That said, if I had my choice, I'd want one of the match-ups to be Week 1 in Miami. The humidity's a main reason for this, but also because New England's been a slow starter the last few seasons. (Last season's first two games were particularly ugly, albeit victories.) Bill's teams typically improve as the season progresses.
 
Other reasons for hope?
 
1) Gronk's expected absence. I just can't see him playing after seeing zero PT all preseason. 
 
2) Bill Lazor. Why? Because he's still a mystery. This is his first go as an OC in the NFL; and while some people assume he'll operate an offense similar to Chip's, no one knows for sure, or how much. No tape for Bill is always a good thing.
 
Still, I worry about the Dolphins ability to run the ball, get off the field on defense on 3rd downs, and avoid silly turnovers. I also fear Chandler Jones on 3rd and long.
 
Things I expect to see from the Fins offense:
 
- Tannehill to keep the ball on the read-option. Potentially 40-50 rushing yards,
 
- Tannehill to attack the middle of the field. Keep it 2nd and 3rd/manageable, and utilize Clay/slot/RBs vs. linebackers/nickel. 
 
- Moreno to receive 2/3 of carries over Lamar Miller.
 
Should be a fun game.

 

[rymflaherty]

I'm cautiously optimistic for Sunday (as well as the season overall) as I do think Miami legitimately has a chance to win.  I don't expect Miami to win, but thinking they have a good chance is better than I can say about many recent matchups against NE.
The Dolphins are like a majority of the league in the sense that you wouldn't be shocked if they win 6 games and you wouldn't be shocked if they win 10.  There's been enough changes that I don't have a clear read or expectation on the season as a whole (at the moment), but as I said there have been enough flashes during the pre-season that have given reason for optimism.
 
Some concerns (i.e. - Good for you guys)
 
The linebackers are still a concern.  And Safety is a question mark. 
They brought in Delmas but with Jones having to uphold a 4 game suspension that area again could be a weakness.  I worry those will be areas Brady can exploit with the quick passing game, especially with the Backs and TE's.
 
Pouncey is out and RG has looked like a black hole this pre-season.
Satale is back and you can do worse than having him as a fill-in Center, but a Dolphins fan's nightmare for Sunday has to involve Wilfork 2 yards deep into the backfield every other play.
And really the line as a whole is a question mark.  Even if I think the majority are upgrades at their positions, when you have an all new line, you may not see that upgrade Week 1.  It may take some time to gel as a cohesive unit.
 
The Kicking game.
Sturgis was inconsistent last year and he missed most of the pre-season with an injury,
He really solidified his job by default when a real threat to his position (Potter) wound up hurt as well.
 
 
The Good (what you may want to worry about)
 
I promise you this Dolphins offense will not look like anything you've seen in the last decade.
This is not Henning, Daboll or Sherman...There will be motion, tempo, mis direction and an actual attempt to create and exploit matchups. Outside of Ireland finally being gone, Bill Lazor is the #1 reason for most fans optimism.  Thus far he looks to have a great offensive mind and there's the potential he could be a "QB Whisperer" that helps elevate Tannehill's game.
 
This also may be a surprise to you guys but WR is now a position of strength.
Landry and Williams now add even more depth and talent to last years group of Gibson, Matthews, Hartline and Wallace.
You add Clay and Moreno to that group and this team actually looks like they finally have some playmakers.  That's a group that Brady may even be jealous of.  It's up to Tannehill now to take advantage of it...Now if he can just figure out how to connect deep to Wallace...
 
Even with Jordan missing the first 4 games the Defensive Line is still a strength.
They'll need that crew, especially Wake to cause havoc on Sunday and make Brady uncomfortable.
 
 
Those are the main things that came to mind when thinking of Sunday's matchup. 
I haven't seen a line yet, but in my opinion a fair line would be along the lines of NE 2 1/2 - 3 1/2
I'm more excited for this opening day than I have been in a few years and even more excited they'll have the game on TV here in Ann Arbor.

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

Pats with Game 1 results with final opposing team's record in ( ); Miami bolded: 

• 2013: 31-23 W @ Buffalo (6-10)
• 2012: 34-13 W @ Tenn (6-10)
• 2011: 38-24 W @ Miami (6-10)
• 2010: 38-24 W vs. Cinci (4-12)
• 2009: 25-24 W vs. Buffalo (6-10)
• 2008: 17-10 W vs. KC (2-14)
• 2007: 38-14 W @ NYJ (4-12)
• 2006: 19-17 W vs. Buffalo (7-9)
• 2005: 30-20 W vs. Oakland (4-12)
• 2004: 27-24 W vs. Indy (12-4)

Some notes:

• Remarkably, you have to go back all the way to 2004 to find a winning team (Colts)
• 1st game is usually it's a shootout, with the average score being 29.7 vs. 19.3
• Pats have scored 30+ points in 4 consecutive season openers
• This would be 4 straight year playing the first game on the road

Brady in last 3 openers:

• 29-52 for 288 yds / 2 TD / 1 INT (boxscore) @ Buffalo
• 23-31 for 236 yds / 3 TD / 0 INT (boxscore) @ Tenn
• 32-48 for 517 yds / 4 TD / 1 INT (boxscore) @ Miami

Some quick thoughts on the game:

• If Gronk is healthy and starts week 1, Miami's LB & secondary will have a tough time matching up with the suddenly varied Patriots receiving options. 
• Not having Reshad Jones is absolutely critical for the Phins, more than missing Pouncey. 
• Only way to keep this close is to force a positive turnover number for the Phins, ala attacking the unusually transitional Pats OL. This is what happened last year (NE 3, Buffalo 2 -- a net +1 for the Bills)
• Regarding heat, Pats have always pulled game late in early season games by utilizing the quick-tempo, no-huddle offense. I believe Pats are not only more talented but also better conditioned than most teams in the league -- if the game is close, it could be decided by the ability for Phins pass rushers to keep going at Brady in the last 5 min. of the game

My sleepers for the game:

• Pats: Dominique Easley -- haven't heard squeak about Easley lately, coincidentally as he came back to healthy the practices were closed to the public and the media. He could be a surprise factor for the mashed up Phins OL unit
• Phins: Tannehill -- easy one, but he could have a TO free game and display poise and ability to keep the ToS numbers in Miami's favor

 

[Tony C]

I was thinking the same thing about Easley. With the Dolphins interior OL in poor shape, this would the sort of game a quick, impact guy like Easley could really show up for. No idea if he'll be ready to go and, presumably if he does play, it'll be for a limited number of snaps -- but I'm excited to see Easley and doubly excited in this sort of match-up.
 
Generally I'm bullish on the Dolphins, but am glad to catch them this first week when they're short-handed already.

 

[Eric Ampersand]

This could be a game where both QBs struggle due to question marks on the OL. As a result I think it will be lower scoring than expected. The Patriots defense is still being undersold. These guys are going to be really good. The Patriots should win 21-10 or similar. 

 

[Stitch01]

Unless the Dolphins pass rush just ruins the game and forces turnovers, I think the Pats are going to win this one handily. As long as the Pats defense is healthy, and it is right now, they're going to be really good. If the O line holds up at all Brady carves up the current Dolphins secondary. 35-17 or something like that feels right.

 

[Clears Cleaver]

Dolphin LBs suck, both against the run and in coverage. Pats will attack them with Vereen and in the running game.
Miami secondary is skilled but first game as a unit. there will be at least one wtf moment, likely more than that.
Olivier Vernon will get to Brady as much s Wake will. He had 11.5 sacks last year and is even better this preseason. Wake is healthy now, as well. Key for the Pats is keeping Brady upright.
 
Be interested to see if Revis is allowed to grab and clutch like in past. I bet he's on Hartline most of the game. Wallace has been more active in the short and intermediate passing game but Hartline is the guy Tannehill goes to in big spots. 
 
Moreno is the best dolphins back and will be the guy in the fourth quarter if the game is close or Dolphisn are ahead

 

[dwainw]

So Belichick has now signed two players cut by the Dolphins toward the end of the preseason (Jones & Thigpen).  Not sure how much of an advantage this provides, but you'd think it would give them at least a slight edge.   I guess at the very least it'll prevent the Phins from "Wildcatting" their way to a surprise victory in week 1.  And if anyone can squeeze more than a marginal advantage out of this, Belichick certainly can.  

Or, what with me being a Dolphins fan, is he just trying to get all up in my head? 

 

[dynomite]

So Belichick has now signed two players cut by the Dolphins toward the end of the preseason (Jones & Thigpen).  Not sure how much of an advantage this provides, but you'd think it would give them at least a slight edge.   I guess at the very least it'll prevent the Phins from "Wildcatting" their way to a surprise victory in week 1.  And if anyone can squeeze more than a marginal advantage out of this, Belichick certainly can.  

Or, what with me being a Dolphins fan, is he just trying to get all up in my head? 

Or neither: they're potentially useful players at positions of need for the Pats. This happens to the Pats all the time* and, I think I can say without actually being in the locker room, is completely irrelevant.

* I remember in '09ish the Jets getting the Pats' former 3rd string QB Kevin O'Connell and hilariously making him a captain the week of a Pats/Jets game. And the Colts signed Deion Branch before our Divisional Round game last year.

 

[Stitch01]

Dolphin LBs suck, both against the run and in coverage. Pats will attack them with Vereen and in the running game.
Miami secondary is skilled but first game as a unit. there will be at least one wtf moment, likely more than that.
Olivier Vernon will get to Brady as much s Wake will. He had 11.5 sacks last year and is even better this preseason. Wake is healthy now, as well. Key for the Pats is keeping Brady upright.
 
Be interested to see if Revis is allowed to grab and clutch like in past. I bet he's on Hartline most of the game. Wallace has been more active in the short and intermediate passing game but Hartline is the guy Tannehill goes to in big spots. 
 
Moreno is the best dolphins back and will be the guy in the fourth quarter if the game is close or Dolphisn are ahead

Had the same thought on Hartline, he might take Clay some too.  IIRC last year BB had Arrington on Wallace with help a lot and tried to take Clay out of the game with Talib.
 
Like the Dolphins secondary a lot more with Jones in there, feels like the safeties can be picked on a bit as is.
 
Think this would be a harder game for NE later in the season where both teams might be banged up and the Miami OL had some more time to play together.

 

[soxfan121]

If I were to guess at the game plan...
 
Offense: 
- Look to establish the run early and let the offensive line get some confidence. Draw plays on second and long are a favorite trick for McDaniels when looking to do this.
- Test the middle of the Dolphins pass defense and if they are doubling Gronk and/or paying too much attention to Edelman, see what Wright, Amendola and LaFell can do against single coverage in a favorable matchup. 
- Throw a pass in Ridley's direction so defenses have to at least acknowledge the Pats might not run with him on the field. The predictability of intent based on the back was a problem last season.
 
Defense: 
- Play left-right with the corners; don't give away all of the Revis-follows-a-guy schemes to be used later in the year in a game against a team without a true #1 outside thread (sorry Mike Wallace, you ain't it)
- Keep Tannehill in the pocket, even if it means sacrificing some pass rush aggressiveness. Per this piece at Grantland:
 

According to ESPN Stats & Info, Tannehill’s QBR inside the pocket over the past two years is 47.3, which is a dismal 29th out of the 35 qualifying quarterbacks over that time frame. Once he gets out of the pocket, though, Tannehill’s a totally different player. His QBR once outside the pocket in 2012-13 is 57.7, which is actually a pretty significant improvement given how most quarterbacks get worse outside the pocket. He has actually been the fifth-best passer in football outside of the pocket since arriving in the NFL, per QBR, and the gap between his performance outside and inside the pocket is the third largest in football. 
 

 
- Find out if Collins can lock up a very good TE in Clay one-on-one; will come in useful later in the season. 
- Figure out what is going on with the other safety position. 

 

[Tony C]

So who starts opposite Revis. I'd guess Dennard, given how poor Rtan has been and that Hartline seems a good match for him.

 

[RedOctober3829]

So who starts opposite Revis. I'd guess Dennard, given how poor Rtan has been and that Hartline seems a good match for him.

Butler had been starting opposite him in the preseason.

 

[Stitch01]

I'd guess Dennard as well with Arrington as the slot.

Whose starting in the front 7 base defense? Wilfork, Jones, Ninkovich, Hightower, Mayo, Collins make six who is the seventh?

 

[RedOctober3829]

I'd guess Dennard as well with Arrington as the slot.
Whose starting in the front 7 base defense? Wilfork, Jones, Ninkovich, Hightower, Mayo, Collins make six who is the seventh?

Siliga?

 

[Ed Hillel]

Easley is my guess. He's not on the injury report at all.

 

[rodderick]

Are you guys considering they'll be in a 4-3 base? Because I thought they'll be running a 3-4.

 

[Stitch01]

Easley is my guess. He's not on the injury report at all.

I'll be surprised if Easley is out there on anything other in sub packages with instructions to kill the QB

Does 3-4 or 4-3 change the six I listed? Sort of hate playing 3-4 if it takes one of those guys off

Think Silinga/Jones rotation is my guess for the 7th

 

[Darnell's Son]

Easley is my guess. He's not on the injury report at all.

I would think they may want to ease him in because he hasn't had much action. They're more likely to play him on third downs than use him as a starter.

 

[Super Nomario]

Are you guys considering they'll be in a 4-3 base? Because I thought they'll be running a 3-4.

This seems to be the consensus, but I think it's overblown. They ran some 3-4 in the preseason, but they always run some 3-4. Some weeks they'll run 3-4, some weeks 4-3, and it doesn't really matter because 70% of the time they'll be in sub (with a 4-man line almost all the time).
 
And if Chandler Jones is one of the 3-4 ends and Ninkovich is playing OLB, it's an arbitrary distinction anyway, as they'll have essentially 4-3 personnel lined up in a 3-4.

 

[Darnell's Son]

Google "Belichick 3-4 4-3". Belichick is a situational coach. He has always taken the players he has and used them to counter the players the other teams have. I honestly believe it's that simple to him. He's constantly adjusting to the problem he's facing.
 
This article from last year displays his attitude.
 
If you haven't read Education of a Coach by Halberstam, you're doing yourself and this board a disservice. 

 

[Tony C]

Right, in terms of laying who will be playing, I don't think it will be matter...3-4/4-3 will be a matter of either Jones/Nink having a hand down or not (of course, when it comes to the Pats one should never be definitive...maybe there's some serious love for Darius Fleming or something, who knows).
 
Given that Siliga is banged up and Easley's on the rebound, I suspect they'll definitely be rotating. Same as Vince, for that matter, I'm guessing he won't be getting as many snaps as he did pre-injury, at least not initially.
 
As for Dennard v Butler, true that Butler has been out there, but Dennard was banged up some and then they were trying him at safety. Given how well he played last year, I suspect he gets first call. Be exciting if they really think Butler has earned a starter slot, though.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Brady not at practice today. Two separate unconfirmed calls to Felger saying its a torn calf.

WTF!!

 

[soxhop411]

Brady not at practice today. Two separate unconfirmed calls to Felger saying its a torn calf.

WTF!!

If it was a torn calf we would have known by now

 

[Corsi]

Brady not at practice today. Two separate unconfirmed calls to Felger saying its a torn calf.

WTF!!

 
Guys, the calf's fine.
 

 

[Ed Hillel]

Brady not at practice today. Two separate unconfirmed calls to Felger saying its a torn calf.

WTF!!

 
Even if it's true, it's not a major injury, and we don't know the severity anyway. He's expected to play, and I'd expect he'll be fine by October, even if he's a bit off for a few weeks. Alternatively, Jimmy G comes in and Brady's Brady. Either way, SEASON SAVED.
 
Edit - Actually, the time out depends completely on the grade. Two-four weeks is for the most minor. We'll see, I guess, but I'm optimistic at this point. I think we'd have heard more about panic, etc, if this was truly devastating. We'll see, I guess.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

If it was a torn calf we would have known by now

Right because the first thing Belechick is going to do is immediately notify us and the Dolphins.

Ed, a torn calf isn't a major injury????

Edit: just saw your edit and the new calf thread.

 

[soxfan121]

 
Guys, the calf's fine.
 

 
That's a goat, all right.

 

[RedOctober3829]

 
That's a goat, all right.

Is that Brady or Giovanni Carmazzi?

 

[BornToRun]

Is that Brady or Giovanni Carmazzi?

Brilliant.

 

[rodderick]

Is that Brady or Giovanni Carmazzi?

 

 

[amarshal2]

Is that Brady or Giovanni Carmazzi?

So. Many. Levels.

 

[Ed Hillel]

Hey, I made that joke reference in my nomination for the draft forum name and nobody liked it :colbert:
 
"Where one G.O.A.T. is better than five goats" was brilliant. I demand a recount. If that doesn't work, I claim racism.

 

[Stitch01]

Chris Jones and Buchanan out Sunday for the Pats, Brady/Gronk/Siliga are all questionable.
 
Wheeler out for Miami along with Poncey, Jordan Tripp, Terrance Fede

 

[snowmanny]

Hey, I made that joke reference in my nomination for the draft forum name and nobody liked it :colbert:
 
"Where one G.O.A.T. is better than five goats" was brilliant. I demand a recount. If that doesn't work, I claim racism.

I don't really get it. Sorry. Maybe next time.

 

[Dollar]

I don't really get it. Sorry. Maybe next time.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B1Y3yJMwqnk

 

[PeaceSignMoose]

Forgive me if this is in the wrong place, but this can't be real can it?
 

f
 
Wouldn't be surprised to see this little event get cancelled.
 
EDIT:  Probably fake.  Curran retweeted it, but it's not on the Cameo website at all.

 

[MJM2344]

Satire.
 
http://www.pageqsports.com/2014/09/rob-gronkowski-hosting-party-at-miami-club-saturday-night/

 

[mpx42]

Says "Satire" right at the top of the article. Gronk's not that stupid.

 

[Dollar]

I dunno, it sounds real to me.  From the same source:
 
Report: Giancarlo Stanton Traded to Red Sox
We’re hearing the package of prospects heading back to South Florida revolves around highly touted speedster Elian Gonzalez and the rocket armed Danny Almonte. As long as Jeffrey Loria owns this franchise, the cycle of building players into superstars and shipping them away for zilch will continue.