The only way you get value out of guys like Bello and Whitlock is by playing them, not stashing them in the minors to answer what ifs. I think it is likely that we see the starting rotation be, Sale, Paxton, Pivetta, Whitlock, and Bello. Hill will probably come back to add depth and there will be probably a couple more Hill/Wacha signings to provide additional depth. I also don't think we are going to see a tremendous amount of movement from the Seabold/WInchowski/Crawford group since they will be needed for depth. In addition, Mata and Walters should be able to provide additional depth. I guess I can see another mid rotation starter signed or traded for. Whitlock only pitched seventy eight innings last year, so it might make sense to limit his innings by starting him in the pen and then having him step in when someone goes down. At the end of the day though, when you have players like Bello and Whitlock who have shown they could be potentially mid to top of the rotation potential, you don't get cute by sticking them in the minors for depth. You play them so they can live up to their potential.
What does 2023 look like?
- Thread starter moondog80
- Start date
I am assuming he is on the roster because he has not pitched in three years and a four million one year deal is probably going to be the best he can get. I could be wrong and time will tell.
I think the point regarding Bello is that for a team that plans to contend, it’s probably best to count on Bello as depth to start the season as opposed to a lock in the rotation. Because if he’s a lock and has issues, you are further down the depth chart.
That being said, there are real 40-man roster issues; they can’t keep everyone they have, resign Wacha and Hill, add others, etc. At some point you have to make difficult roster decisions.
That being said, there are real 40-man roster issues; they can’t keep everyone they have, resign Wacha and Hill, add others, etc. At some point you have to make difficult roster decisions.
I mostly agree here. I think Bello and Whitlock are both extremely legit as starters, but there could be some level of strategic benefit in declining to say that either opens the season in the rotation.
It may then be easier to lure a FA starter — be it one of Eovaldi or Wacha or a fresh face like Kluber or Stripling — to fill a vacant rotation spot. Then Bloom could deal Pivetta from a position of some depth, if he likes, before revealing that Bello and Whitlock were in the rotation all along.
A similar principle applies with holding out until spring training to announce a Hill signing.
As for the difficult roster decisions, I think they'll happen. Aside from the Bogaerts/Devers decisions, I'm betting that the "solid regulars without remaining upside"/"mild fan favorites" will end up as the surprise deals. To me, that's Verdugo and Pivetta, and I'm still a little intrigued by the Story-to-Seattle plot line.
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The bolded really understates the situation in Bello's case.
4.71 ERA on a 2.94 FIP — that's a huge discrepancy, one of the biggest in the majors. The quality of contact-based xwOBA also loves him, which isn't surprising for a guy who gave up one HR in ~60 IP.
But more important than that IMO is just separating his different stints. His first four starts weren't as bad as their line, but they certainly weren't good. 16.1 IP, 8.82 ERA, 3.91 FIP, .370/.470/.557 on a .456 BABIP. 13 SO to 11 BB. So... way too many walks (6 per 9) and a terrible BABIP.
Thereafter: 41 IP, 3.07 ERA, 2.55 FIP, .292, .351, .357 on a .381 BABIP. 42 K to 16 BB. The K/9 climbed, the BB/9 almost halved, and the BABIP headed towards normal. His BABIPs will tend high as a groundball pitcher, but even .381 is nuts.
But again: one HR allowed.
I know there have been some changes to how AAV is calculated, but does the rule still exist where if an extension is signed after the start of a season than it doesn't trigger an increase to the AAV? I believe the Sox circumvented a jump with Adrian Gonzalez back in the day. I'm thinking out loud here regarding Devers.
View: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WWRsQNsGZkWuJZwlY8--xVBXMJGjh230D45KiHTHuvY/edit
I know the other relatively straight forward variable is Hosmer, who is due $13 mil a year for the next 3 seasons but his AAV is $18 mil. So the Sox are picking up the difference in AAV from what San Diego is paying vs. the $720K they're paying.
With all that said, there's still plenty of wiggle room here. Even with Devers and Bogaerts being undershot in AAV on Cots by $20 mil total, the Sox still have $48 mil to play with and are certainly not against exceeding that. I'm assuming Pham and Hosmer return. At that point, I'm in the camp of get another bat (I'd accept JD, but would prefer Nimmo) and spend the rest on pitching.
View: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WWRsQNsGZkWuJZwlY8--xVBXMJGjh230D45KiHTHuvY/edit
I know the other relatively straight forward variable is Hosmer, who is due $13 mil a year for the next 3 seasons but his AAV is $18 mil. So the Sox are picking up the difference in AAV from what San Diego is paying vs. the $720K they're paying.
With all that said, there's still plenty of wiggle room here. Even with Devers and Bogaerts being undershot in AAV on Cots by $20 mil total, the Sox still have $48 mil to play with and are certainly not against exceeding that. I'm assuming Pham and Hosmer return. At that point, I'm in the camp of get another bat (I'd accept JD, but would prefer Nimmo) and spend the rest on pitching.
They removed the so-called Adrian Gonzalez loophole. A player's AAV is based on his current contract no matter when he signed it.
That is not what I am saying at all. Bello starting in AAA has very little to do with his performance and everything to do with the other pitchers on staff and available in free agency. If they had 3-4 established starters without red flags about their health, then giving Bello the 5th spot makes sense. Unfortunately that is not the case.
Bello is likely to be one of the top 3 performers in the rotation. You don't stash that in AAA for any reason.
This is my exactly my point. Saying you can just sign a few extra starters as depth doesn't really work in reality. First, those guys have to be willing to sign on as a 7/8 starter and most would rather take guaranteed innings from the Royals than be stuck in the bullpen. Second, signing guys to major league contracts means they either have to be on the roster or DFA. Taking 2-3 spots in the bullpen for depth starters leaves it pretty thin for high leverage relievers.
Again, I am not arguing Bello should be in AAA because he pitched badly. He has the unfortunate status of being a talented young pitcher with options.
I'm still confused. If they have 3-4 starters with injury concerns, wouldn't you want a young, healthy arm pitching every 5 games?
As the rotation stands now, sure. After signing 2 more established starters as I am advocating for? That seems like an overly certain position for someone with all of 57 major league innings
There seems to be an unwarranted degree of confidence in Bello's ability to give 32 major league quality starts.
And even if they did what I am suggesting, I would still expect Bello to make a significant number of starts. Nobody is rotting away in AAA.
How many posters have assigned a number and why can't the depth be behind Bello?
I guess the ultimate question is who are these two more established starters going to be? There aren't a ton of guys on the prospective free agent list that I want to see taking a rotation spot over Bello.
Sure, if the Sox had a rotation of DeGrom, Rondon, Sale, Pivetta, Whitlock- Bello would be in AAA. I just don't see many realistic scenarios where he's not one of the 5 best pitchers they have in the starting rotation. He made 28 starts last year between the minors and majors in 153 IP. He had 21 starts the year before and 25 2 years ago. I'd say he's a pretty safe bet to get close to those 32-33 starts you say each spot in the rotation needs to have. His minor league stats are excellent and his limited MLB stats show quite a bit of promise. I'm not sure what more you want from a young starter to be the #5 guy in the rotation.
As Red(s)HawksFan says, it comes down to the guys you're looking to sign. Who are they, how do they fit into the budget and can they be expected to pitch better than Bello?
Not to mention that the money saved on a mediocre FA can be allocated elsewhere.
The first question isn't as smart as you seem to think it is. As to the second, the obvious answer is options. You can probably sign one guy with major league starting experience as a swing man but no more than that. That means the 7/8/9 starters are Crawford/Winck/Seabold or guys willing to take minor league deals, which will not be very good. Maybe you are ok with but I am not. What happens if Sale gives 5 innings again? Throw in a starter or two with regular 1 month stints on the DL and you quickly get to the July 2021 rotation again.
I would start by offering QOs to both Eovaldi and Wacha.
It's not comparing Wacha versus Bello, it's comparing X starts of Wacha and Y starts of Bello versus X starts of Bello and Y starts of Winckowski.
I'm not even sure WTF this means. I asked a question about an opinion you seem to have based on the posting of others.
Established starters are expensive, half the point of having guys like Bello is that you can save that money and use it somewhere else. Signing a guy you'd expect to be better than Bello is going to cost you 15-20m a year likely for multiple years.
I keep reading that the Sox have a loaded farm system and boatloads of cash. Instead of signing FA pitching, perhaps they could make a trade or two? And of course free agents are expensive, but the Sox are going relatively cheap at quite a few positions, where exactly will they spend the money if not on pitching- the teams biggest weakness?
There are a couple of high priced players that many in these parts would like to see extended and the numbers being suggest are in the neighborhood of $30M per season EACH. That corner OF situation isn't likely to correct itself and bullpen arms ain't as cheap as the once were.
So by that logical the Sox should keep Bello in Triple A in 24 as well. I mean he has options right? The fact is you are ignoring the depth that is already in the minors. Winchowski, Seabold, Crawford, Mata and Walters should all be able to soak some innings. On top of that it seems that Hill is open to a reunion and I think there is a good chance he would be willing to either start in the bullpen to keep innings down or to join the club in June or July. As for Wacha type signings, the whole reason the Sox were able to get Wacha for one year and slated him for the bullpen prior to Sale's injury is that he was coming off a few down years. Just to be clear I am not saying that all that depth in the minors is going to amount to a team full of aces. It is likely that a few of them will either settle in as back of rotation starters or as bullpen arms and a few of them will not be in the majors in a few years. Perhaps the Sox get lucky and one of them settles in as a mid rotation starter. Starting Bello in the minors to add to depth is crazy. He needs to get at least 150 innings in the majors this year so he can continue to develop. He can't do that in triple A.
It's just not a great market for pitching. deGrom will be expensive and comes with a lot of injury risk, Rodon will be expensive and comes with injury risk, Eovaldi has injury risk, as well. After that, who's left? Not a whole lot.
In terms of a trade, who's dealing a top of the rotation arm? Maybe Miami if you think Pablo Lopez is that guy. Are the White Sox going to trade Cease? I doubt it. There doesn't appear to be an obvious trade candidate.
Bello led the starters in FIP. Chances are good that he's not only a top-5 starter on this team but also a top-1. Unless the team signs at least two ace starters, talk of Bello starting in the minors makes us all look dumb.
No, not at all. I fully expect Bello to have a spot in the rotation next year. I also expect him to make a significant number of starts in Boston this year.
For this particular year, with this particular grouping of pitchers, I think it makes sense to prioritize the depth/performance of the entire staff over maximizing the contribution of Bello. Next year we will have more info on whether Sale will ever be a healthy pitcher again, whether Whitlock can make it as a starter, what Bello looks like after batters have seen him a few times, etc.
Chances are good he is the best pitcher on the team next year? So good that we shouldn't even bother considering a rookie pitcher may stumble? I wish I had your confidence.
With that, I think I have argued my position enough. I look forward to seeing how the offseason plays out.
I don't think anyone is advocating not having backup in case the rookie stumbles or injuries.
So they should spend a buttload of money on an older pitcher with considerable injury risk because the young pitcher might get injured?
Look, he has nothing left to prove at AAA. Sending back down hurts his development, why slow down his developmental curve just to sign someone on the wrong side of 30 to a big money deal? That money is far better spent locking up Bogaerts and Devers and saving rotation money by plugging in the guy that’s already demonstrated that he can pitch at this level.
This so badly misrepresents my position that it is almost like you didn't bother reading the rest of the conversation. It has absolutely nothing to do with Bello's injury risk. It has almost nothing to do with Bello's ability as a pitcher. It has everything to do with the uncertainty of the rest of the members of the rotation.
It's fine if you disagree and want to reserve a spot in the rotation for Bello. Just stop with the ridiculous strawman arguments.
Moving on from the Bello debate, hopefully, I was just on Twitter and saw a picture of Judge in a Red Sox uniform, so I guess we locked up our need for a corner OFer. I also saw him in an Orioles uniform, but that can't be real.
I'm with @Petagine in a Bottle in thinking we should take advantage of a stocked minor leagues and explore the trade market. The money will always be there to sign free agents to fill remaining holes or go for the big piece we can't get via trade. I've seen far too many can't miss prospects who turn into dust to worry about trading potential for proven commodities.
I'm with @Petagine in a Bottle in thinking we should take advantage of a stocked minor leagues and explore the trade market. The money will always be there to sign free agents to fill remaining holes or go for the big piece we can't get via trade. I've seen far too many can't miss prospects who turn into dust to worry about trading potential for proven commodities.
They’ll get to that point in another 18-24 months. Right now they have a lot of prime talent at the A level, which leads to overpays in the trade market (when you’re dealing lottery tickets everyone wants volume. Once those guys are performing at the AA level it becomes easier.
This is my sense, too. Need guys like Yorke and Jordan to increase their value, maybe a young pitcher or two to pop. Even next year this time, rebuilding teams will have slightly more data and confidence in our younger guys. Although if Rafaela could headline a trade for Reynolds…
I don't know that I'm as enamored of Bryan Reynolds as many of you. He's obviously a very good player, but I'm not ready to give up a haul for him. Didn't he take some serious steps back last year?
He chased a ton of pitches out of the zone, for one thing, but more importantly his defense seemed to really fall off. Was he hurt? He was a -14 DRS and -7 OAA in center field in 2022, a major dip from -5 DRS and +10(!) OAA in 2021. That doesn't inspire me that he could handle Fenway's right field, it seems like a kind of guy we'd only be able to stick in left.
I'd worry that the total package is not especially different than Verdugo (though we'd have Reynolds an extra year). Incidentally, both Reynolds and Verdugo had a .329 expected wOBA last year. Verdugo is a better contact hitter and Reynolds has more power, but I'd worry that like Verdugo, much of his power would be lost in Fenway's deep right field. Against lefties, Reynolds turns into an extreme ground ball hitter (54.5% in 2022, 7th highest in MLB).
Don't get me wrong, he's definitely very good. But do the Sox need to give up a bunch of assets for three years of a 120 wRC+ left fielder?
Of course it's unlikely he gives the Sox 32 MLB quality starts. He's going to have some bad games, really bad games. But he's shown he can pitch at this level, so it's not unreasonable for people to think, you know, maybe he should just start out on the major league club.
The difference in breaking camp with Sale, Pivetta, Whitlock, Hill, and Bello and Sale, Eovaldi, Pivetta, Whitlock, and Hill is that in the first scenario, whoever gets hurt first or is in effective is replaced by Seabold or Crawford; in the second scenario they are replaced by Bello. (Just used Eovaldi and Hill as examples, replace them with others if you’d like).
Clearly, Bello should get a ton of innings with the big league club; but you need a bunch of starting options. Don’t we want to try to avoid all those starts by the minor league JAG’s that we point to as sinking our season?
So you're saying you want as many starts by our better pitchers as possible?
That includes Bello. Starting him back in AAA makes less than zero sense.
It looks like we have Sale, Bello, Pivetta, and Whitlock penciled into the rotation. Add a major league arm and a relatively fungible guy who can be stashed in AAA and we're fine.
Obviously you want to minimize how many starts are made by JAGs, but there are many ways to skin this cat. I think that's the bigger point being made by those objecting to the idea of starting Bello in Worcester. The caliber of who is brought in should be a factor in where Bello ends up. I'd be fine if he's in Worcester because they added deGrom and Rodon. I'd be less happy to see Bello relegated to the Woo Sox rotation because of Rich Hill and Chad Kuhl.
And we also can't ignore that it's possible to upgrade the JAGs without making Bello one of them to start the season. There's bound to be a free agent or two that can be signed to a minor league deal and stashed away, at least for the first part of the year.
The team had a terrible pitching staff last year - has a lot of money to spend- and also, several of their top starters are free agents. Is the idea that we only want to add one of the studs or no one else because we don’t want to block Bello? Seems like we’d really be asking a lot out of Sale, Whitlock, and Bello in that scenario, each of whom has significant question marks.
Is the consensus that we no longer should be offering QO’s to Eovaldi and Wacha? Because if they both accept, you are suddenly blocking Bello and Whitlock, right?
I think there’s a difference between planning on Bello as the #6 starter going into camp and planning on him starting the season in Worcester; shit happens…how often does a guy not expected to make the rotation out of spring training end up making it?
Is the consensus that we no longer should be offering QO’s to Eovaldi and Wacha? Because if they both accept, you are suddenly blocking Bello and Whitlock, right?
I think there’s a difference between planning on Bello as the #6 starter going into camp and planning on him starting the season in Worcester; shit happens…how often does a guy not expected to make the rotation out of spring training end up making it?
What happened this year was that the entire rotation got injured at the same time. Unless you think that Boston has five Bellos ready to step in should that happen again, they’re screwed if it happens again.
Bello will be in the rotation; he's shown he can handle it and maybe be special, and also starters are expensive so if you can have one at the league minimum, you do that. But I do find the question about the QOs interesting, the first shoe to drop on what will be a fascinating offseason.
Have the Red Sox come out and said Whitlock is definitely starting next year? They could easily sign 2 starters and keep Whitlock in the bullpen and Bello in the rotation. And then you've got Whitlock available to step in if someone gets hurt for an extended period of time, in addition to the Crawford/Wink/Seabold group and whoever they sign to a minor league deal.
There are so many ways this can go but I don't think any of them should include Bello in AAA.
There are so many ways this can go but I don't think any of them should include Bello in AAA.
The "Keep Bello in AAA" posters- so if he starts the year there and say... Sale and Eovaldi pitch well... Whitlock is okay, Pivetta and let's say they sign Rodon- are also just pitching okay but not great.... but all still making starts what do you do with Bello? All you all just assuming he gets called up after an injury to one of them? And what if they don't get injured but just don't pitch terribly. What's your call on how to proceed with him?
I just don't get the idea that you should keep your likely best young, cost controlled pitcher in AAA "for depth". Having him in the rotation allows the Sox to spend money on a RF'er... bullpen arms and sign some more Hill types...
Having Crawford as a depth guy is great. Crawford and Hill as your 6 and 7 is likely better depth than most other teams. Winckowski as 8 is fantastic. Then you're still looking at possibly Mata, Murphy.... right now with just adding Hill as a "no 6" and moving Whitlock and Bello into the rotation is pretty exciting to me and allows a lot of money to be invested in the bullpen where you've already got 3-4 good arms in Houck, Schreiber, Crawford, Barnes and then Hill
I just don't get the idea that you should keep your likely best young, cost controlled pitcher in AAA "for depth". Having him in the rotation allows the Sox to spend money on a RF'er... bullpen arms and sign some more Hill types...
Having Crawford as a depth guy is great. Crawford and Hill as your 6 and 7 is likely better depth than most other teams. Winckowski as 8 is fantastic. Then you're still looking at possibly Mata, Murphy.... right now with just adding Hill as a "no 6" and moving Whitlock and Bello into the rotation is pretty exciting to me and allows a lot of money to be invested in the bullpen where you've already got 3-4 good arms in Houck, Schreiber, Crawford, Barnes and then Hill
Would ownership/Chaim ever consider trying to sign X AND Devers AND Judge and go well over the luxury tax threshold - despite all the penalties? IOW, go all in. It worked for the Brooklyn Nets last year with Durant/Irving/Harden...wait
They have not and I doubt they will say anything like that until ST starts
I think the biggest value in the Sox system right now is that everything looks pretty flat outside the top 5ish. There are volume for talent trades to be had if a team is looking to save some cash. The Yankees have been doing this kind of trade for years (with mixed results, to be fair) without really touching the gems in their system. There are guys all the way out to the 40ish range in our system that may not be anything special but are at least of interest.Gilberto Jimenez has slid all the way to 39 after a down year, for example.
Agree. And if we’re talking about getting Scott Barlow, given our 40 man crunch, then quantity for quality makes sense and seems doable. But we won’t get guys like Luis Castillo, let alone Juan Soto, without trading virtually all of our top quality, some of which we kinda need right now! We’re not yet where we were in 2016.
According to Spotrac, the Red Sox payroll is $119 million and they have $114 million in "space" before hitting the $233 million 2023 luxury tax limit. (https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/tax/2023/) If they sign/extend both Bogaerts and Devers at $30 million each, that'd leave about $85 million left over to spend on FAs and the arb-eligible returning players. And that's assuming they stay under the tax threshold. Do I have that right?
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