What does 2023 look like?

[moondog80]

The good news: they'll have a lot of payroll room, at least $120 million.

The bad news is that I'm not sure that's enough, given the unavoidable nature of free agency and the number of holes they will have to fill. The system just isn't there yet in terms of producing youngsters who can contribute, and we might be nearing the point where we can write off Downs, Dalbec, and Duran. In terms of roster pieces, we have:

Devers: One more year, at least of all-star level production. Hopefully the can extend him on semi-reasonable terms.
Story: Maybe the most dependable lineup piece we have after Raffy, should be able to pencil him in as an above average starter at 2B with very good defense, question will be if he can get the K rate down and get the bat into the 110 OPS+ range.
Verdugo: Appears to have been unlucky with the bat this year, I'm OK counting on him to be a perfectly cromulent OF.
Casas/Hosmer: I envision Hosmer at the backup/fallback plan with Casas getting every chance to win the job. I'll worry if the plan is for both of them to start (1B and DH), as the chance of both of them flopping is real.
McGuire: Likely backup catcher. Whatever.
Arroyo: Perfectly cast as backup utility guy, hopefully he doesn't get Peter Principled into a larger role.
Pham: Given the other holes they have to fill, I won't be shocked if his option gets picked up.

And that's all I have for position players. No starter in sight for SS, CF, C, DH, and some questions at 1B and at least one corner OF spot. Excited yet?

Pivetta: The Alex Verdugo of starters -- reasonable to pencil him to fill a spot adequately.
Houck/Whitlock: Probably our best two assets on the mound, but starter? Reliever?
Paxton/Sale/Barnes: Complete wild cards. Great if they pay off, but can't count on anything.
Crawford/Winckowski: Good enough to take a step up next year and hold down rotation spots? If one of them does and the other fades away, that will be a big victory.
Schreiber: Above average bullpen piece, if he can repeat. A solid asset.
Bello: Rushed this year of out necessity, could probably use more time in AAA next year.

I do not see a lot to be excited about. Other than Devers/Story/Whitlock/Houck, who is there that could be projected as above average in their role?

There is a lot of money to spend. But maybe 5 lineup and 2 to 3 rotation spots will be empty on November 1, and there will also be a bullpen to fill out. This looks like a very pivotal offseason.

 

[chawson]

And that's all I have for position players. No starter in sight for SS, 3B, CF, C, DH, and some questions at 1B and at least one corner OF spot. Excited yet?

Devers is still under team control next season.

 

[moondog80]

Devers is still under team control next season.

Yes. Glaring omission, I will fix.

 

[E5 Yaz]

No starter in sight for SS, CF, C, DH, and some questions at 1B and at least one corner OF spot. Excited yet?

Yes.

I'm probably more "excited" about this coming offseason than I have been in a while. Then again, I don't mind the idea of a rebuild and am fascinated by what the offseason will bring.

 

[Sausage in Section 17]

I was saying to a friend last week that for the first time in about a decade, I'm not sure where the Red Sox are headed. They won in '13, in part because of the way the team pulled together after the marathon bombing. After that was the lead up to '18, with the prospect train we had at that time (Mookie, JBJ, AB, Vasquez, Xander, etc.), and we have now officially reached the end of that era. We have OK prospects, but as noted above, a lot of questions and holes.

This is the least optimistic I've been about their future in a long time. Chaim has some work to do.

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

They don't need to do everything in free agency or even have a bunch of prospects ready to contribute right away to get great value out of the improved system. They have accumulated more than enough interesting prospects to trade from their depth to bring in legit major leaguers without touching Mayer or other top guys. It's not going to be easy but there is a lot of flexibility to reshape the roster without emptying the cupboard Dombrowski-style. You can swing 1-2 big FA deals, a couple value signings, and a couple 3 dimes for a quarter-type trades and suddenly things don't look so dire.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Yes.

I'm probably more "excited" about this coming offseason than I have been in a while. Then again, I don't mind the idea of a rebuild and am fascinated by what the offseason will bring.

I’m expecting a significant trade or two. We have the capital now.

 

[RedOctober3829]

I was just talking about this last night. Of the players not free agents from this roster would you even want back next year? Devers, Bogaerts, Story, Hosmer, Verdugo for position guys and Sale/Pivetta/Bello/Winckowski/Crawford/Houck/Schrieber/Whitlock on the pitching staff. Paxton's option picked up? With the amount of holes to fill, Bloom is going to have a great offseason to be considered a true contender.

 

[E5 Yaz]

I’m expecting a significant trade or two. We have the capital now.

I think the potential to be the most intriguing is what they decide with Hosmer and Casas. Hosmer's contract would allow them to emphasize adding payroll elsewhere in the lineup, with an expected performance at first base. Committing to Casas allows the same financial flexibility, but without knowing what they're going to get once he hits the major leagues. Until he's driven off the lot, Casas remains both a significant prospect and a valued trade chip.

It's a coin flip for me, but if a significant return requires Casas being in the deal, I think I make the trade.

 

[dynomite]

There is a lot of money to spend. But maybe 5 lineup and 2 to 3 rotation spots will be empty on November 1, and there will also be a bullpen to fill out. This looks like a very pivotal offseason.

Thanks for starting the thread. I personally find it helpful to have things broken down by lineup/rotation based upon what we have. I know a bunch of good posters have done this elsewhere. Can someone post a few of those in here?

Something like (presumed starters listed, backups in parens):

C -- ??? (McGuire)
1B -- Hosmer/Casas (Dalbec?)
2B -- Story (Arroyo?)
SS -- ???
3B -- Devers
LF -- ??? (Pham?)
CF -- ??? (Duran)
RF -- Verdugo?

SP1 -- Sale
SP2 -- Pivetta
SP3 -- Paxton
SP4 -- Crawford?
SP5 -- ??? (Bello?)

Bullpen: Whitlock, Houck, Schreiber, Sawamura, Barnes, etc.

And definitely missing some FA guys, as well as acknowledging there's uncertainty given many of the top FAs are potential opt outs: https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/

Notable free agent hitters:
- Aaron Judge, OF
- Willson Contreras, C
- Xander Bogaerts, SS
- Trea Turner, SS
- Jose Abreu, 1B
- Brandon Nimmo, OF
- Dansby Swanson, SS
- Christian Vazquez, C
- Michael Brantley, OF
- Carlos Correa, SS – $35.1 million player option (potential opt out)
- Nolan Arenado, 3B -- $35 million player option (potential opt out despite 5 years, $144 million remaining)

Notable free agent pitchers:
- Jacob deGrom, New York Mets – $30.5 million player option
- Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies – $16 million club option
- Carlos Rodón, San Francisco Giants – $22.5 million player option
- Nathan Eovaldi, Boston Red Sox – 2023 free agent
- Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers
- Chris Bassitt, New York Mets – 2023 free agent
- Noah Syndergaard, Los Angeles Angels – 2023 free agent
- Charlie Morton, Atlanta Braves – 2023 free agent
- Adam Wainwright, St. Louis Cardinals – 2023 free agent

- Edwin Diaz, New York Mets -- 2023 free agent
- Craig Kimbrel, Los Angeles Dodgers - 2023 free agent
- Kenley Jansen, Atlanta Braves - 2023 free agent

 

[moondog80]

I think other than maybe SS and/or a Devers extension, they don't sign any deals more than 2 years, but still spend up to the tax. To that end, Michael Brantley on a 2 year deal seems like a very good fit.

 

[Daniel_Son]

Thanks for starting the thread. I personally find it helpful to have things broken down by lineup/rotation based upon what we have. I know a bunch of good posters have done this elsewhere. Can someone post a few of those in here?

Something like (presumed starters listed, backups in parens):

C -- ??? (McGuire)
1B -- Hosmer/Casas (Dalbec?)
2B -- Story (Arroyo?)
SS -- ???
3B -- Devers
LF -- ??? (Pham?)
CF -- ??? (Duran)
RF -- Verdugo?

SP1 -- Sale
SP2 -- Pivetta
SP3 -- Paxton
SP4 -- Crawford?
SP5 -- ??? (Bello?)

Bullpen: Whitlock, Houck, Schreiber, Sawamura, Barnes, etc.

And definitely missing some FA guys, as well as acknowledging there's uncertainty given many of the top FAs are potential opt outs: https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/

Notable free agent hitters:
- Aaron Judge, OF
- Willson Contreras, C
- Xander Bogaerts, SS
- Trea Turner, SS
- Jose Abreu, 1B
- Brandon Nimmo, OF
- Dansby Swanson, SS
- Christian Vazquez, C
- Carlos Correa, SS – $35.1 million player option (potential opt out)
- Nolan Arenado, 3B -- $35 million player option (potential opt out despite 5 years, $144 million remaining)

Notable free agent pitchers:
- Jacob deGrom, New York Mets – $30.5 million player option
- Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies – $16 million club option
- Carlos Rodón, San Francisco Giants – $22.5 million player option
- Nathan Eovaldi, Boston Red Sox – 2023 free agent
- Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers
- Chris Bassitt, New York Mets – 2023 free agent
- Noah Syndergaard, Los Angeles Angels – 2023 free agent
- Charlie Morton, Atlanta Braves – 2023 free agent
- Adam Wainwright, St. Louis Cardinals – 2023 free agent

- Edwin Diaz, New York Mets -- 2023 free agent
- Craig Kimbrel, Los Angeles Dodgers - 2023 free agent
- Kenley Jansen, Atlanta Braves - 2023 free agent

I could be wrong about this, but I don't think Bloom is going to splurge on one of the top free agents. We're still in the rebuilding cycle. For that reason, I think we bring back a lot of the current squad - Vazquez, Eovaldi, Hernandez, Pham.

The one wrench in all this is what they decide to do with Xander.

 

[Papo The Snow Tiger]

I'm bearish on the 2023 Red Sox. There's going to be many holes to fill, and there's going to be competition with making trades and signing free agents, too much to fill every hole. I have a feeling that a few of the second-tier free agents will be coming to Boston.

 

[dynomite]

I think other than maybe SS and/or a Devers extension, they don't sign any deals more than 2 years, but still spend up to the tax. To that end, Michael Brantley on a 2 year deal seems like a very good fit.

I agree, although injuries are a major red flag and have limited him to 60 games this season. But at some point they have to break out of that cycle, right? The Dodgers did, if they’re the model we’re after.

Personally, maybe this is "old school" thinking, but I also think the team needs to make a splash for an ace in the rotation. The Yankees have Cole. The Jays have Gausman. The Rays have McClanahan and Glasnow. Chris Sale was supposed to be our guy but I don’t think the 2023 rotation is enough to face the AL East lineups throughout the season -- or advance through multiple postseason series -- without more top end pitching (as we're seeing this year).

Carlos Rodon could fit the bill, who is 3 years younger than Eovaldi* and has been outstanding for two seasons now.

* NB I'd rather have Eovaldi than Paxton, but I get the sense he's a replacement?

 

[Reggie's Racquet]

Sign Devers to an extension in the offseason.
Let Xander walk. Give that money and much more to Judge.
Slide Story to shortstop.
Resign Kike to play second base.
Hosmer or Casas at first.
From free agency sign an outfielder who can play center, a top-of-the-rotation starter (Rodon?), and two dependable bullpen pieces.

 

[gryoung]

Isn’t moving Story to SS a risk? There have been numerous references on this site to the condition of his elbow.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Sign Devers to an extension in the offseason.
Let Xander walk. Give that money and much more to Judge.
Slide Story to shortstop.
Resign Kike to play second base.
Hosmer or Casas at first.
From free agency sign an outfielder who can play center, a top-of-the-rotation starter (Rodon?), and two dependable bullpen pieces.

If I'm targeting a soon to be FA, I would put all my money into Jacob DeGrom but I think ultimately JWH can't compete money-wise with Steve Cohen.

 

[BigSoxFan]

If I'm targeting a soon to be FA, I would put all my money into Jacob DeGrom but I think ultimately JWH can't compete money-wise with Steve Cohen.

NYC sports talk (not the best source, I know) seems to think DeGrom may want out of NY.

 

[nattysez]

There is zero shot they will continue paying Story so much to play 2B. He will be the SS until he demostrates he's incapable of doing so. And if he's incapable of doing so, they have major, major problems.

 

[DisgruntledSoxFan77]

If I'm targeting a soon to be FA, I would put all my money into Jacob DeGrom but I think ultimately JWH can't compete money-wise with Steve Cohen.

With his recent injury history alone, as awesome as it would be to have a pitcher like him, I would run not walk away from him

 

[SoxFanInPdx]

Bogey leaves and Story comes over to replace him at short. We fill in some of the holes on this team with some of the second-tier FA's on short deals while continuing the develop the farm and bring some guys up. I just don't see them wanting to spend big money/years to snag a person like Judge, etc. And they're not a contender.

The Devers situation isn't resolved this offseason and he gets dealt during the Winter Meetings. It becomes crystal clear to everyone that the team is in a big rebuild.

 

[BaseballJones]

Yes.

I'm probably more "excited" about this coming offseason than I have been in a while. Then again, I don't mind the idea of a rebuild and am fascinated by what the offseason will bring.

I’m with you.

 

[Ganthem]

I am going to have a little fun with this. I think Bloom really values defense. I think that is one of the reasons he had no trouble trading Vaz and I would guess that is why he has been hesitant to sign X and Devers to a long term extension. So what about signing Arenando, trading Devers and signing Turner. The infield would be Arenando, Turner, Story and Hosmer/Dalbec. That is a pretty good defensive infield. Use Casas and a few other prospects to aquire a legit top of the rotation starter. I started going through names yesterday, but I am uncertain who will be available in the off season that would fit that mold. Sign Kike to a one year make good deal and sign a mid tier outfielder such as Peralta. Use the remaining money/prospect capital to acquire bullpen arms, a lefty hitter to complement Verdugo and some depth type signings for the pitching staff. Lineup would be
Kike
Turner
Arenando
Peralta
DH maybe Martinez
Verdugo/lefty hitting outfielder
Story
Hosmer/Dalbec
Mcguire/Ronaldo/Wong

Rotation is
Pitcher X
Sale
Paxton
Whitlock
Crawford

Winchowski, Bello and depth signing would be bringing up the rear.

Having around 70 million earmarked for two players should not hurt. That still gives Bloom a 170 million to play with.

 

[simplicio]

Turner has been slightly worse defensively than Xander this year. Not sure I see the point of a sidegrade like that.

 

[chawson]

I'd be willing to wager something considerable that Trea Turner won't be on the Red Sox next year, and I'm not a betting man. The Dodgers gave up a haul to get him and he has publicly wished to stay. But beyond that, imagine the backlash if we replaced Xander, a beloved team leader, with a player who has a history of tweeting racist and homophobic slurs. (Turner has apologized.) Signing him would also certainly be more expensive than Bogaerts, so there'd be no other economics-y narrative to fall back on. Why would Bloom give his enemies that much ammo?

 

[Ganthem]

I'd be willing to wager something considerable that Trea Turner won't be on the Red Sox next year, and I'm not a betting man. The Dodgers gave up a haul to get him and he has publicly wished to stay. But beyond that, imagine the backlash if we replaced Xander, a beloved team leader with a player who has a history of using racist and homophobic slurs. (Turner has apologized.) Signing him would certainly cost far more than keeping Bogaerts, so there'd be no other narrative to fall back on. Why would Bloom give his enemies that much ammo?

I did not know about the racist and homophobic slurs. I walk back Turner. I still think Bloom is going to try to find a more defensive minded short stop.

 

[manny]

Can someone fill me in on why we can't be more excited by Enmanuel Valdez? He's crushed both AA and AAA this year (granted, AAA is PCL). Is his defense that bad? Slotting him at 2B (with a solid veteran backup that can be a serviceable starter) and shifting Story to SS would solve the IF (aside from C). Then they could extend Devers and still go hard after someone like Judge (or Nimmo for a third of the cost) and maybe a starter like Nola? Then trade some minors depth for good relievers. I'm probably simplifying this but I think giving Valdez a shot could be a nice way to save money on filling a hole.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

I will wager that whoever signs Judge will regret it.
He has one or two more years left at great to very good production before he starts spending 1/2 the season on the DL and his swing starts slowing down just enough to crack him and he ends up an .800 OPS opt-injured DH

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

I will wager that whoever signs Judge will regret it.
He has one or two more years left at great to very good production before he starts spending 1/2 the season on the DL and his swing starts slowing down just enough to crack him and he ends up an .800 OPS opt-injured DH

Perhaps, but I learned today* that the first few years of the contract will appear to be very fruitful.



*I didn't really learn that today

 

[jon abbey]

Can someone fill me in on why we can't be more excited by Enmanuel Valdez? He's crushed both AA and AAA this year (granted, AAA is PCL). Is his defense that bad? Slotting him at 2B (with a solid veteran backup that can be a serviceable starter) and shifting Story to SS would solve the IF (aside from C). Then they could extend Devers and still go hard after someone like Judge (or Nimmo for a third of the cost) and maybe a starter like Nola? Then trade some minors depth for good relievers. I'm probably simplifying this but I think giving Valdez a shot could be a nice way to save money on filling a hole.

Willie Calhoun is the comparison I keep thinking of with Valdez, not that I know much, but Calhoun was a huge prospect based on his bat and he never had a position, and hasn't done anything positive in MLB so far. Calhoun is the guy TEX got from LAD for a rental Yu Darvish in mid-2017.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=calhou003wil

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Perhaps, but I learned today* that the first few years of the contract will appear to be very fruitful.



*I didn't really learn that today

Maybe. He’s dodged injury in a contract year

 

[grimshaw]

Willie Calhoun is the comparison I keep thinking of with Valdez, not that I know much, but Calhoun was a huge prospect based on his bat and he never had a position, and hasn't done anything positive in MLB so far. Calhoun is the guy TEX got from LAD for a rental Yu Darvish in mid-2017.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=calhou003wil

He's the first guy I thought of too. Him and Red Sox killer Frank Catalanatto.

 

[GB5]

As for Judge, I get the sense he is going to test the market, bring the best offer he has back to the Yanks, and they will add an extra year and about 35 mill on to it and he will be back to the Pinstripes.

 

[CJM]

It’s all idle speculation, but is there a remotely feasible number for Judge that the folks here would consider? 8yrs/$280mil?

 

[Apisith]

Given that there's very little chance of getting surplus value from Judge's FA deal, I don't think we'll be in for him. IMO we're more likely to be in for deGrom because he could put up 7 wins, if healthy, and $40m per year will mean some chance of surplus value. But how likely is it that we re-sign Xander, Devers and also get someone like deGrom? That would eat up ~$70m of cap room and we wouldn't be that much better than this year, still uncompetitive against the rest of the AL East.

 

[Yo La Tengo]

Thinking about next year's roster, is there room for our old friend Jose Iglesias? He's been really good this year: .318/.358/.420. And, before we get all worked up about Coors Field, almost all of that has come on the road: .358/.392/.458. I expect his underlying numbers are not that good (fangraphs has his xBA at .268 for the year).

He's been playing SS all year and the defensive numbers I'm seeing look pretty good, but, those stats are outside my comfort zone. I'm not really sure how he'd fit, but, he'll be 33 and probably not that expensive.

(This is assuming Xander leaves and that the Sox don't want to sign a SS to a big contract.)

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Thinking about next year's roster, is there room for our old friend Jose Iglesias? He's been really good this year: .318/.358/.420. And, before we get all worked up about Coors Field, almost all of that has come on the road: .358/.392/.458. I expect his underlying numbers are not that good (fangraphs has his xBA at .268 for the year).

He's been playing SS all year and the defensive numbers I'm seeing look pretty good, but, those stats are outside my comfort zone. I'm not really sure how he'd fit, but, he'll be 33 and probably not that expensive.

I'd love him back if he's cheap, but after such a good year he'd likely want to start and I strongly suspect that Bloom has an eye on moving Story back to his first position of SS once X is allowed to leave after this year. Maybe he'd come here to play 2B instead, but that seems like a stretch to me.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Can someone fill me in on why we can't be more excited by Enmanuel Valdez? He's crushed both AA and AAA this year (granted, AAA is PCL). Is his defense that bad? Slotting him at 2B (with a solid veteran backup that can be a serviceable starter) and shifting Story to SS would solve the IF (aside from C). Then they could extend Devers and still go hard after someone like Judge (or Nimmo for a third of the cost) and maybe a starter like Nola? Then trade some minors depth for good relievers. I'm probably simplifying this but I think giving Valdez a shot could be a nice way to save money on filling a hole.

None of the scouting reports actually talk about his defense other than saying "He plays 2b, 3b and LF." Fan graphs has his defense at 30/35.

He's going to have to hit.

 

[moondog80]

I hope they set their sights a little (a lot) higher than Jose Iglesias.

 

[Yo La Tengo]

I hope they set their sights a little (a lot) higher than Jose Iglesias.

If the Sox don't sign Xander, do you think they will sign a SS or 2B to a long term deal this winter? I would be surprised if they went that route and anticipate the team spending on Devers, maybe Xander, the outfield, and pitching rather than a long contract for a middle infielder.

 

[chawson]

It’s all idle speculation, but is there a remotely feasible number for Judge that the folks here would consider? 8yrs/$280mil?

I'd be thrilled to sign him for that.

It's going to become really fashionable (edit: typo) the next few months to pshaw advocates of a Judge signing, but I think he really does make a lot of sense for this team, and costs "only money." The Sox need power, they need plate discipline and they need a strong defensive right fielder. They also need someone who hits fastballs and sliders well (the Sox are 18th and 20th by wOBA vs. those pitches, respectively), and Judge is one of the very best there is at that. He's the best position player in baseball this decade.

You can point to his age and injury history, and yes of course there's some risk. But he's a unique hitter, and I'd wager that his body type and plate discipline makes him likelier to age well. The hitter he's been the last two years is much better than he used to be, and the swinging strike rate has gotten much better. Of course it's unlikely and I'm 90 percent sure he stays in New York, but I don't know why you wouldn't just sign him and Devers to deals around $275-300M, re-up Bogaerts at 6/$150M, and then let the waves of kids come up and join them.

 

[moondog80]

If the Sox don't sign Xander, do you think they will sign a SS or 2B to a long term deal this winter? I would be surprised if they went that route and anticipate the team spending on Devers, maybe Xander, the outfield, and pitching rather than a long contract for a middle infielder.

I suppose if they use up their resources filling every other hole and go cheap at SS with Igelsias, I could buy in. But given the SS that will be out there, that seems like a spot to invest in.

 

[jwbasham84]

I'd be thrilled to sign him for that.

It's going to become really unfashionable the next few months to pshaw advocates of a Judge signing, but I think he really does make a lot of sense for this team, and costs "only money." The Sox need power, they need plate discipline and they need a strong defensive right fielder. They also need someone who hits fastballs and sliders well (the Sox are 18th and 20th by wOBA vs. those pitches, respectively), and Judge is one of the very best there is at that. He's the best position player in baseball this decade.

You can point to his age and injury history, and yes of course there's some risk. But he's a unique hitter, and I'd wager that his body type and plate discipline makes him likelier to age well. The hitter he's been the last two years is much better than he used to be, and the swinging strike rate has gotten much better. Of course it's unlikely and I'm 90 percent sure he stays in New York, but I don't know why you wouldn't just sign him and Devers to deals around $275-300M, re-up Bogaerts at 6/$150M, and then let the waves of kids come up and join them.

I am completely on board with this. I guarantee by the end of the contract he's not performing up to the salary, but that is every mega-deal free agent. Not only do we get one of the best players in the game that fills so many of our weaknesses, we also get the benefit of addition by subtraction from our biggest rival. Judge has also shown the ability to play center, which adds a level of versatility as well. I know he will never sign with the Red Sox, but the deal makes a TON of sense.

 

[johnlos]

Can someone fill me in on why we can't be more excited by Enmanuel Valdez? He's crushed both AA and AAA this year (granted, AAA is PCL). Is his defense that bad? Slotting him at 2B (with a solid veteran backup that can be a serviceable starter) and shifting Story to SS would solve the IF (aside from C). Then they could extend Devers and still go hard after someone like Judge (or Nimmo for a third of the cost) and maybe a starter like Nola? Then trade some minors depth for good relievers. I'm probably simplifying this but I think giving Valdez a shot could be a nice way to save money on filling a hole.

Agree. Having him and Arroyo duke it out in the spring seems perfectly reasonable. Or just platoon them. Although it doesn't seem like Arroyo hits lefties particularly well (100 wRC+) but he does hit Fenway Park really well fwiw (143 wRC+)

 

[nvalvo]

Judge is a better fit for the roster than another SP, that's for sure, especially in a scenario where Bogaerts leaves and we don't add a ton of salary elsewhere. We'll need another middle of the order bat.

I wouldn't mind an off-season in which we let Bogaerts go, promoted a ton of young pitching, and extended Devers, signed Judge, and basically went cheap everywhere else.

You could see a 26-man roster like this:

SP: Sale, Paxton, Whitlock, Pivetta, Crawford
RP: Houck, Schreiber, Taylor, Mata, Ward, Sawamura, Murphy, German
OF: Judge, Verdugo, Duran, Cordero
IF/OF: Kiké Hernández
IF: Devers, Arroyo, Story, Casas, Valdez, Dalbec
C: Wong, McGuire

Typical starting lineup, but I'm imagining that we're giving a lot of different guys PAs from the DH spot:

DH Duran LH
2B Story RH
3B Devers LH
RF Judge RH
1B Casas LH
CF Hernández RH
LF Verdugo LH
SS Arroyo RH
C Wong RH

 

[johnlos]

Of course it's unlikely and I'm 90 percent sure he stays in New York, but I don't know why you wouldn't just sign him and Devers to deals around $275-300M, re-up Bogaerts at 6/$150M, and then let the waves of kids come up and join them.

I know why: because Henry has this bug in his brain that tells him to hoard money. Nevermind how much equity he's gained from owning the team.

 

[CarolinaBeerGuy]

I know why: because Henry has this bug in his brain that tells him to hoard money. Nevermind how much equity he's gained from owning the team.

Please provide proof of how you “know” this.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Judge is a better fit for the roster than another SP, that's for sure, especially in a scenario where Bogaerts leaves and we don't add a ton of salary elsewhere. We'll need another middle of the order bat.

I wouldn't mind an off-season in which we let Bogaerts go, promoted a ton of young pitching, and extended Devers, signed Judge, and basically went cheap everywhere else.

You could see a 26-man roster like this:

SP: Sale, Paxton, Whitlock, Pivetta, Crawford
RP: Houck, Schreiber, Taylor, Mata, Ward, Sawamura, Murphy, German
OF: Judge, Verdugo, Duran, Cordero
IF/OF: Kiké Hernández
IF: Devers, Arroyo, Story, Casas, Valdez, Dalbec
C: Wong, McGuire

Typical starting lineup, but I'm imagining that we're giving a lot of different guys PAs from the DH spot:

DH Duran LH
2B Story RH
3B Devers LH
RF Judge RH
1B Casas LH
CF Hernández RH
LF Verdugo LH
SS Arroyo RH
C Wong RH

You forgot Winckowski.

I'd also guess that Brandon Walter and Brayan Bello will stick before Ward and Mata. Though if the latter 2 are fast tracked as bullpen arms, maybe. The Red Sox have a lot of options when it comes to pitching. Majority of it home grown and cheap. I wouldn't be looking to add more pitching either. At least not pitching with a big price tag.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

A rotation of Sale, Pivetta, Paxton, Crawford, and Whitlock is expecting a lot from guys who really haven’t pitched much as starters in the last few years. I agree that the Sox have some pitching depth, in terms of guys capable of starting games, but don’t they need some more reliable younger pitching with upside? Trading for a guy like Pablo Lopez, Alcantara, Zac Gallen, Skubal or a similar type (maybe the brewers move one of Burnes or Woodruff?) seems ideal and a way to turn some of our prospect capital into major league help.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

A rotation of Sale, Pivetta, Paxton, Crawford, and Whitlock is expecting a lot from guys who really haven’t pitched much as starters in the last few years. I agree that the Sox have some pitching depth, in terms of guys capable of starting games, but don’t they need some more reliable younger pitching with upside? Trading for a guy like Pablo Lopez, Alcantara, Zac Gallen, Skubal or a similar type (maybe the brewers move one of Burnes or Woodruff?) seems ideal and a way to turn some of our prospect capital into major league help.

What exactly are you expecting next year? I'm expecting a team that will be much like the 2015 Red Sox, just with more pitching than hitting. A season that is probably similar to this one in W/L record but the team is far more likeable because there's room for growth. I guess they could trade the farm for a young arm with upside but that just leaves holes elsewhere. I don't see the point, really. The team doesn't have a core set in place to empty the farm for a player or two. The team has multiple holes and requires an infusion of young, cost controlled talent.

2015 had Betts, Eduardo, Bradley, Barnes, Owens, Swihart, Shaw all breaking in and a young Xander. Still a loaded farm. Watching that team, it wasn't hard to envision them winning 90+ games for a stretch. And then DD used the loaded farm to trade for the players the Sox needed once they had the core in place.