What does 2023 look like?

jon abbey

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These make sense to me. I don't know the precise optimal points to slip fringe players through waivers but it seems intuitive that Ort is likelier to at the end of spring training than he was in January.
I don't really know either, but if it's someone like Ort who still has options, I would think it would be much more likely he would clear in January as opposed to March, because teams can use the 60 day IL now.

For instance, NY has 4 guys they can put on the 60 day IL whenever they need space, dunno if they'd want Ort back (he was in NY's system from 2017-2020) but they'd certainly easily be able to fit him if they did.
 

chawson

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I don't really know either, but if it's someone like Ort who still has options, I would think it would be much more likely he would clear in January as opposed to March, because teams can use the 60 day IL now.

For instance, NY has 4 guys they can put on the 60 day IL whenever they need space, dunno if they'd want Ort back (he was in NY's system from 2017-2020) but they'd certainly easily be able to fit him if they did.
That makes sense too, though maybe the bet is that teams with newly cleared roster spots will have signed FA stragglers by then?

After all the post-pandemic roster effects I figure a lot of teams are playing this kind of roulette. I doubt there’s an exact science. The Sox tried to claim-and-DFA Easton McGee, Kyle Tyler, Joel Payamps, Ralph Garza Jr., Jake Reed, Tim Locastro and Hoy Park at various points of the offseason the last couple winters and lost out on each. Ort’s not exactly the same situation but almost.
 

JM3

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I don’t think you can go with Alfaro as your only back at C and 1B that early in the season. I’d swap Dalbec for Valdez and think we are good to go. And doubt Whitlock is ready which opens up a spot for Kelly or Ort.
Chang can play 1st, too. But no Turner makes Dalbec pretty likely.
 

simplicio

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Good article breaking down the changes Brasier made to pull out of his terrible season last year: https://theathletic.com/4281744/2023/03/07/ryan-brasier-red-sox-committed?source=user-shared-article

Part of Brasier’s late-season turnaround was a mechanical fix. His chase rate, walk percentage and fastball velocity were in the top 15 percent or so of the league last season. Based on quality of contact, plus strikeouts and walks, Brasier had the majors’ eighth-largest difference between expected ERA (3.97) and actual ERA (5.78). That was a lot to work with, and the Red Sox noticed that most of his hard contact came on pitches that drifted to the middle of the plate instead of going to the edges.

Brasier worked in the bullpen to fix some bad habits, getting into better positions throughout his delivery to help himself reach the proper release point more consistently. With those changes, Brasier’s command improved. He was able to keep his fastball up and on the edges, and he was able to better control his slider for strikes or swings-and-misses.

But Brasier also had to change his tendencies and pitch mix. The Red Sox had focused heavily last spring on throwing competitive pitches, and Brasier took it to heart. His 1.88 walks-per-nine last season was the best of his career and the 17th-best in the majors, but Brasier said he was sometimes too much in the zone. Late last season, he said, he found a better balance between throwing strikes and throwing good strikes.

He also started throwing more sliders, especially in two-strike counts — at least, that’s what the Statcast data shows. Brasier didn’t want to get into the details of his pitch mix adjustments, but he did acknowledge that he’d become predictable in certain situations, and he changed his pitch mix to keep batters guessing.
 

ookami7m

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If he succeeds on the field, he's going to be one of those larger than life guys.

What’s cooking with Triston Casas? The Red Sox rookie has the fires burning this spring. - The Boston Globe

He looks like a stretched out Charlie McAvoy.
Comes across as a smart and thoughtful guy in a sport full of macho and the like. I hope he succeeds for the Sox and sets a good example.

“The whole ideology of this campaign is to be yourself no matter what,” he says. “I’m taking a stand for people who are afraid to be themselves. I don’t want to just be another player. I want to do good.”
I sent this quote to my oldest kid who has struggled with LGBTQ acceptance going to school in Alabama. More being yourself is good for everyone.
 

joe dokes

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Following up on Opening Day. Abraham had it right. No Sale:
]Chris Sale won’t be the Opening Day starter, Red Sox manager Alex Cora said on Sunday morning prior to the team’s tie with the Yankees.

“You can write that one down. He’s not,” Cora said. “I want him to enjoy [Opening Day] as a regular baseball player. Just the whole Opening Day thing. Wherever he pitches in the rotation is where he’ll pitch in the rotation.”
Alex Cora hasn’t chosen the Sox’ Opening Day starter, but it won’t be Chris Sale - The Boston Globe
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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It wasn't that much of a leap by Abraham. Just projecting out the schedule based on when they've worked this spring, Kluber is lined up for Opening Day, followed by Sale, Houck, Pivetta, and Crawford. Obviously they can make adjustments to the order still, but that's what makes sense with where things are now. If any of Paxton, Whitlock, or Bello can get back in time to start the year, they can slot in where ever, though it's highly unlikely any of them would get the Opening Day nod.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Feltman seems like he’s had a good spring. Wasn’t that long ago he was considered a top prospect. Assuming he’s in AAA- it’d be great to see him earn his way back to a ML spot this season.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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I suspect they go Duran; just don’t see how they can get Tapia on the roster, absent a trade. Also think they roll with Ort, allows them to keep all the pitching for now.

(Now watch them go Tapia / Sherriff)
 

nvalvo

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It’s not shocking to me that nobody wanted to add a questionable defensive catcher to their 26 man roster at this stage in the spring, even if it comes with a roughly league average bat.

He adds much needed depth, but I think it’s a good decision to get a real look at Wong with an eye to the future.
 

Cassvt2023

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I have a horrible feeling that Ort is going to make this team in spite of himself and terrible spring. I know he throws hard, but what am I missing here? He is holding a very valuable 40 man spot right now....
 

BaseballJones

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Just a friendly reminder that the Boston Red Sox begin their 2023 baseball season in.... (checks the calendar and my watch)....3 days, 2 hours, and 15 minutes.

LFG!!!!
 

BaseballJones

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Projected opening day lineup:
  1. Alex Vedugo, RF
  2. Rafael Devers, 3B
  3. Justin Turner, DH
  4. Masataka Yoshida, LF
  5. Adam Duvall, CF
  6. Triston Casas, 1B
  7. Christian Arroyo, 2B
  8. Reese McGuire, C
  9. Kiké Hernández, SS
So to me, that lineup looks like it has the potential to be awful or really good.

The case for awful:

- Verdugo - just an average hitter
- Devers - maybe doesn't do well after signing a huge contract
- Turner - guy is 38 years old and only hit 13 homers next year, and he's the #3 hitter?
- Yoshida - who knows how he will adjust to MLB pitching every day
- Duvall - from 2018-2022 he hit .221/.284/.453/.736, with an ops+ of 94
- Casas - a rookie...who knows how he will do against MLB pitching
- Arroyo - seems to be injured a ton
- McGuire - career ops+ of just 87
- Hernandez - 3 of the last 4 seasons he's hit .237 or worse, with an ops+ of 87 or worse

The case for really good:

- Verdugo - seems to have figured it out; from Aug 5 through the end of the year: 52 g, .311/.371/.476/.847
- Devers - MVP caliber hitter
- Turner - super solid professional hitter; even as an older player, had ops+ of 120 and 116 past two years
- Yoshida - GREAT hitter in Japan, and that carried over all spring and in the WBC
- Duvall - tons of pop, potential 30+ homer guy, even with a low avg
- Casas - huge power, plays to all fields, if he's even half of what he could be, that's an enormous improvement at 1b for Boston
- Arroyo - 103 ops+ each of the last two years; top draft pick pedigree....can easily see him putting it all together
- McGuire - was terrific for Boston after coming over in trade; good Fenway hitter
- Hernandez - has had 3 seasons with ops+ of 117 or more; clearly is capable of being a good, solid MLB bat


Probably the reality will be somewhere in the middle, but there's a legit case for massive optimism and also massive pessimism. Have we ever seen a Sox lineup with more potential variance than this one?
 

Rovin Romine

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Probably the reality will be somewhere in the middle, but there's a legit case for massive optimism and also massive pessimism. Have we ever seen a Sox lineup with more potential variance than this one?
2021 - Team Versatility. https://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/red-sox-2021-season-predictions.33006/ 92 victories when most predicted less. (Made for some occasional bitter posting too, like the team was a mirage or something.)

Boegarts and Vazques were the only known quantities. Devers and Verdugo were mostly solid question marks in the sense they were expected to be average if not good.

Full range of outcomes for Dalbec, Hernandez, Renfroe, Cordero, Gonzalez, Arroyo, Santana, and Martinez. Any of those guys could become an important contributor or, if they played like they had in the prior couple years, or failed to transition, they could be benched or traded.

C: Vazquez - had logged two solid years at this point. Probably the starter with the second least questions for 2021.

1B: Dalbec - a Sam Hornian partial 2020. A potential ROY candidate. What's the name of the board again? Isn't K-rate a new fangled stat or something?

2B: Enrique Hernandez - 29year old oft injured Dodgers super-sub, his last above average year with the bat was 2018. He'll be batting leadoff. If he can stay on the field. Good thing we have Marwin Gonzalez.

SS: Boegarts - pencil him in for 120-130 OPS+. Probably the starter with the least questions in 2021, although his defense isn't what it was.

3B: Devers: Meh 2020 both offensively and defensively. Career OPS+: 112, 94, 132, 107. Which Devers is showing up? Is he going to pork out out not?

OF: Verdugo - (CF) brilliant 2020 - seems a 120 to 130 OPS+ will be in line with his career arc going into his age 25 season. But who really knows how he will handle a full season in Boston with real crowds and so many looking for him to fail?
Renfroe - Age 29. Might only be averageish at the end of the day, even though he had shown power in his career.
Franchy Cordero - exciting replacement for Bulky Benni. Will his age 26 season be the year he figures it out? Could be an All-Star and lead the team in HRs.

DH: JD Martinez - age 33. 139 OPS+ in 2019, 79 OPS+ in 2020. What do we have? Should we have traded him in the off-season?

Utility: Marwin Gonzalez - Leader of Men, Friend of Cora. For his age 32 season, could bounce back to league average supersub or continue his fall off the cliff following 2020?
Arroyo - Never saw an injury he didn't like. Can he even play more than 20 games in a season?
Danny Power and Speed Santanner - Would he recover from injury and revisit his age 28 career year with TX? And if so, what do we do with both Dalbec and Verdugo in the lineup?
 
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Yo La Tengo

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Projected opening day lineup:
  1. Alex Vedugo, RF
  2. Rafael Devers, 3B
  3. Justin Turner, DH
  4. Masataka Yoshida, LF
  5. Adam Duvall, CF
  6. Triston Casas, 1B
  7. Christian Arroyo, 2B
  8. Reese McGuire, C
  9. Kiké Hernández, SS
So to me, that lineup looks like it has the potential to be awful or really good.

The case for awful:

- Verdugo - just an average hitter
- Devers - maybe doesn't do well after signing a huge contract
- Turner - guy is 38 years old and only hit 13 homers next year, and he's the #3 hitter?
- Yoshida - who knows how he will adjust to MLB pitching every day
- Duvall - from 2018-2022 he hit .221/.284/.453/.736, with an ops+ of 94
- Casas - a rookie...who knows how he will do against MLB pitching
- Arroyo - seems to be injured a ton
- McGuire - career ops+ of just 87
- Hernandez - 3 of the last 4 seasons he's hit .237 or worse, with an ops+ of 87 or worse

The case for really good:

- Verdugo - seems to have figured it out; from Aug 5 through the end of the year: 52 g, .311/.371/.476/.847
- Devers - MVP caliber hitter
- Turner - super solid professional hitter; even as an older player, had ops+ of 120 and 116 past two years
- Yoshida - GREAT hitter in Japan, and that carried over all spring and in the WBC
- Duvall - tons of pop, potential 30+ homer guy, even with a low avg
- Casas - huge power, plays to all fields, if he's even half of what he could be, that's an enormous improvement at 1b for Boston
- Arroyo - 103 ops+ each of the last two years; top draft pick pedigree....can easily see him putting it all together
- McGuire - was terrific for Boston after coming over in trade; good Fenway hitter
- Hernandez - has had 3 seasons with ops+ of 117 or more; clearly is capable of being a good, solid MLB bat


Probably the reality will be somewhere in the middle, but there's a legit case for massive optimism and also massive pessimism. Have we ever seen a Sox lineup with more potential variance than this one?

Comparing this team to the 2022 squad provides some comfort. Last year the Sox scored the 4th most runs in the AL, with the 3rd best OBP and 4th best SLG.

Those ranks were despite the fact that the team had pathetic production from first base (.683 OPS ranked 21st in MLB), LF (.693 OPS ranked 24th), CF (.671 ranked 13th), RF (.661 ranked 24th). They will definitely miss Xander and Story, but, I would wager that the offense will be fine and the determining factor of awful v. really good is going to be, as always, the starting pitching.
 

BaseballJones

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Anyone besides me really unhappy with how Houck has performed this spring? He's been terrible. I hope it's just "working on stuff" rather than "omg he stinks".
 

JM3

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Anyone besides me really unhappy with how Houck has performed this spring? He's been terrible. I hope it's just "working on stuff" rather than "omg he stinks".
It's a bit concerning, but if he's healthy, people don't usually stop being good at baseball at 26.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Again, last spring Wacha had a 6.66 era and Hill was at 9.35. Dalbec and Franchy had OPS of 1051 and 1152, respectively.

Martin, Schreiber, and Jansen are all above 7 this spring. Alfaro had a 1390 OPS.

If there’s some info that spring training stats are predictive of…something, I’d love to read it. Otherwise, it seems like the same people who were skeptical of Houck and Pivetta before…still are.
 

JM3

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Again, last spring Wacha had a 6.66 era and Hill was at 9.35. Dalbec and Franchy had OPS of 1051 and 1152, respectively.

Martin, Schreiber, and Jansen are all above 7 this spring. Alfaro had a 1390 OPS.

If there’s some info that spring training stats are predictive of…something, I’d love to read it. Otherwise, it seems like the same people who were skeptical of Houck and Pivetta before…still are.
Last spring was truncated so sample sizes were even smaller than usual, & after today none of those 3 relievers are above 7 (although Schreiber is at exactly 7).

But as long as we can all agree that Ort is still bad...I think Mosqueda is getting that job? Idk.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Last spring was truncated so sample sizes were even smaller than usual, & after today none of those 3 relievers are above 7 (although Schreiber is at exactly 7).

But as long as we can all agree that Ort is still bad...I think Mosqueda is getting that job? Idk.
Possibly. Is there a risk in adding a guy like that to the 40-man, though? Thinking that in some ways it may be preferable to have the spot be taken by someone more expendable - like Ort. Dump Ort for Mosqueda, suddenly Wong tweaks his hammy, and then you’ve got to DFA Mosqueda (or someone else) to get Alfaro on the roster, right?
 

JM3

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Possibly. Is there a risk in adding a guy like that to the 40-man, though? Thinking that in some ways it may be preferable to have the spot be taken by someone more expendable - like Ort. Dump Ort for Mosqueda, suddenly Wong tweaks his hammy, and then you’ve got to DFA Mosqueda (or someone else) to get Alfaro on the roster, right?
I think Sherriff makes the most sense but apparently he's hanging out in New Jersey?

Although I guess there's probably a trade in the works.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Possibly. Is there a risk in adding a guy like that to the 40-man, though? Thinking that in some ways it may be preferable to have the spot be taken by someone more expendable - like Ort. Dump Ort for Mosqueda, suddenly Wong tweaks his hammy, and then you’ve got to DFA Mosqueda (or someone else) to get Alfaro on the roster, right?
Isn't there always a risk with these kind of edge of the roster moves? That's just the nature of the beast. Injuries are unpredictable. They can't account for every contingency. Some bridges have to wait until it's necessary to cross them.

I think the most likely move to add another LH reliever like Mosqueda or Sherriff is to put Rodriguez on the 60-day IL. Then they still have the "dump Ort" move if they need a catcher or someone else added to the 40-man. And that guy (Mosqueda or Sherriff) can be dumped when Rodriguez is ready to return.
 

Rovin Romine

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Anyone besides me really unhappy with how Houck has performed this spring? He's been terrible. I hope it's just "working on stuff" rather than "omg he stinks".
It's concerning.

Dalbec and Franchy had OPS of 1051 and 1152, respectively.
On mistake made in looking at ST stats is assuming the players are facing ML competition, and so the stats have some bearing on the subsequent ML season.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Isn't there always a risk with these kind of edge of the roster moves? That's just the nature of the beast. Injuries are unpredictable. They can't account for every contingency. Some bridges have to wait until it's necessary to cross them.

I think the most likely move to add another LH reliever like Mosqueda or Sherriff is to put Rodriguez on the 60-day IL. Then they still have the "dump Ort" move if they need a catcher or someone else added to the 40-man. And that guy (Mosqueda or Sherriff) can be dumped when Rodriguez is ready to return.
Sure there’s a risk, which is why I think that you’d rather give the spot to someone more expendable than Mosqueda, given his age, and theoretical value over the next few year. Of course, if they think he can really help or don’t think much of his long term upside, the calculus changes.

Sherriff seems like a better fit for the spot, but they sent him back to minor league camp a few weeks back which suggests he’s below Mosqueda in the pecking order, I think.

Joely to the 60-day seems like a no brainer if the injury warrants it. Seems like oblique strains can run the gamut for recovery time.
 

JM3

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Sure there’s a risk, which is why I think that you’d rather give the spot to someone more expendable than Mosqueda, given his age, and theoretical value over the next few year. Of course, if they think he can really help or don’t think much of his long term upside, the calculus changes.

Sherriff seems like a better fit for the spot, but they sent him back to minor league camp a few weeks back which suggests he’s below Mosqueda in the pecking order, I think.

Joely to the 60-day seems like a no brainer if the injury warrants it. Seems like oblique strains can run the gamut for recovery time.
I don't think the bolded is true. They haven't used Sherriff much, but the last time was 3/23.

https://www.mlb.com/player/ryan-sherriff-595411?stats=gamelogs-s-pitching-mlb&year=2023
 

JM3

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According to this, they reassigned him to minor league camp a few weeks ago. Although, they reassigned Mosqueda a few days later. So I guess it probably doesn’t really mean anything.

https://www.rotowire.com/baseball/player/ryan-sherriff-15176
Fair. I forgot for a minute there that being sent to minor league camp is not similar to being sent to the minor leagues because there is still a lot of overlap in who is actually playing the games, including guys who never even were in major league camp to begin with.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Fair. I forgot for a minute there that being sent to minor league camp is not similar to being sent to the minor leagues because there is still a lot of overlap in who is actually playing the games, including guys who never even were in major league camp to begin with.
It is confusing, I’m not really sure what it truly means, especially for non roster players who weren’t optioned or anything.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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It is confusing, I’m not really sure what it truly means, especially for non roster players who weren’t optioned or anything.
I think it's just a matter of where they work out, which coaches they work with, which locker room they report to, etc. From our perspective, the designations really only clarify who's got a shot to make the big club and who doesn't. The sooner guys are sent to the minor league camp, the further they are from making the roster (barring injuries like Rodriguez's).
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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That makes sense. Ultimately, it seems like the most likely scenario here is Ort and Duran make the team. Anything else requires a roster move and potentially losing someone. Now maybe some other team is willing to give Tapia a major league roster spot, but I’m skeptical.
 

chrisfont9

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Last spring was truncated so sample sizes were even smaller than usual, & after today none of those 3 relievers are above 7 (although Schreiber is at exactly 7).

But as long as we can all agree that Ort is still bad...I think Mosqueda is getting that job? Idk.
Hasn't the case for Ort been entirely projection? Not sure it's any different now. If they liked him in December, they'll still want to see him across a season of AAA before changing their mind.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Hasn't the case for Ort been entirely projection? Not sure it's any different now. If they liked him in December, they'll still want to see him across a season of AAA before changing their mind.
Perhaps, but it’s pretty much impossible to get him to AAA right now given all the injuries, he will be in Boston. He’s also 31 years old, he’s either ready to pitch in the majors or he’s not.
 

JM3

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Hasn't the case for Ort been entirely projection? Not sure it's any different now. If they liked him in December, they'll still want to see him across a season of AAA before changing their mind.
The biggest thing is they probably need a lefty with only Bleier in the pen right now. There's also only so far you can project a 31 y/o against all evidence. But who knows? Maybe he will shock the world.
 

chrisfont9

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Perhaps, but it’s pretty much impossible to get him to AAA right now given all the injuries, he will be in Boston. He’s also 31 years old, he’s either ready to pitch in the majors or he’s not.
I dunno, pitching is weird. Guys find stuff when they find it. Yes, the top of the rotation guys emerge on a predictable schedule in their earlyish 20s, but bullpen fillers can appear seemingly out of nowhere. I'm sure they have a file that says something exciting to them. I am less sure it ever translates.