Maybe. This is Breslow's wheelhouse, so hopefully he will choose correctly.I'd honestly rather give Stroman 3 yrs/72m and Imanaga 5yr/105m and take my chances....
Well he obviously knows Stroman from his Cubs days. I've heard mixed things about him as a clubhouse guy, which isn't awesome. I used to not like to have to face him when he was with Blue Jays. He pitches with a chip on his shoulder as a smaller guy, but man he knows how to pitch and seems to love the big stage with all eyes on him.Maybe. This is Breslow's wheelhouse, so hopefully he will choose correctly.
He can look for it all he wants. Most projections have him getting 5 years, and the only guy who has really outkicked his projection is Yamamoto. Good luck on 8 years.If the rumors are true, Montgomery is looking for 7/175 or 8/200, right? He’s the same age that Price was when the Sox gave him 7/217.
For me the error bars are troubling (see previous discussions about his HR rate), but again, you have to believe Breslow is looking at vastly superior information with a trained eye, so if they do push their chips in for Imanaga, I'm sure there will have been a good reason.Well he obviously knows Stroman from his Cubs days. I've heard mixed things about him as a clubhouse guy, which isn't awesome. I used to not like to have to face him when he was with Blue Jays. He pitches with a chip on his shoulder as a smaller guy, but man he knows how to pitch and seems to love the big stage with all eyes on him.
As for Imanaga, I only have the WBC to go by, and he looked very good. I'm sure they have done their diligence on him and Alex Speier seems to think the Sox are all over him. He compared the 4yr/80m deal E-Rod signed as a fit...
Snell, easily. He's the only one of the bunch that I think has ace level talent.I’m betting they will end up with one of Montgomery, Imanaga, Snell or Stroman (Man or Stroman?). Another SP will come via trade that half the board will hate.
Curious out of the 4 (Monty, Snell, Imanaga or Stroman) who posters would prefer say at 6/180
There aren't any rumors out there (that I've seen) that Montgomery is looking for 7 or 8 years.He can look for it all he wants. Most projections have him getting 5 years, and the only guy who has really outkicked his projection is Yamamoto. Good luck on 8 years.
I'd certainly take Montgomery at 6/$180m of that group. I wouldn't honestly even hate getting both he and Snell at that if you could (and I'm not even a huge Snell fan, but I'd take him at 6/$180m for sure). But forced to think I'm guessing:I’m betting they will end up with one of Montgomery, Imanaga, Snell or Stroman (Man or Stroman?). Another SP will come via trade that half the board will hate.
Curious out of the 4 (Monty, Snell, Imanaga or Stroman) who posters would prefer say at 6/180
6/180? I think you might get Stroman and Imanga for that.I’m betting they will end up with one of Montgomery, Imanaga, Snell or Stroman (Man or Stroman?). Another SP will come via trade that half the board will hate.
Curious out of the 4 (Monty, Snell, Imanaga or Stroman) who posters would prefer say at 6/180
He hates the Yankees, that is good enough for me.Well he obviously knows Stroman from his Cubs days. I've heard mixed things about him as a clubhouse guy, which isn't awesome. I used to not like to have to face him when he was with Blue Jays. He pitches with a chip on his shoulder as a smaller guy, but man he knows how to pitch and seems to love the big stage with all eyes on him.
As for Imanaga, I only have the WBC to go by, and he looked very good. I'm sure they have done their diligence on him and Alex Speier seems to think the Sox are all over him. He compared the 4yr/80m deal E-Rod signed as a fit...
Hm, I've been stumping for Monty but the numbers all say Snell. Of course, it's baseball, the past only means so much. I guess I will stick with Monty on his trend of incremental improvement, but it's like 51-49 for me.I’m betting they will end up with one of Montgomery, Imanaga, Snell or Stroman (Man or Stroman?). Another SP will come via trade that half the board will hate.
Curious out of the 4 (Monty, Snell, Imanaga or Stroman) who posters would prefer say at 6/180
That’s fair. I imagine if he settles for 5 years, it won’t be for awhile, though.He can look for it all he wants. Most projections have him getting 5 years, and the only guy who has really outkicked his projection is Yamamoto. Good luck on 8 years.
Lifetime 4.32 FIP that's headed in the wrong direction Lorenzen? We don't need any more JAGs. Do you think there's some latent quality there in that spin rate?Why has there been no talk about Michael Lorenzen? Cora said this week on a podcast that the Red Sox could be in the market for 3 starters, Lorenzen would be a solid number 5 starter or another long guy from the bullpen who could spot start when injuries pop up. He doesn’t walk many guys and he has a high spin rate and low extension. If he’s signed in conjunction with getting two top half of the rotation starters I would feel very comfortable with their rotation and depth.
Why would you sign another long guy/ multi inning RP/spot starter when they already have an overload of those guys?Why has there been no talk about Michael Lorenzen? Cora said this week on a podcast that the Red Sox could be in the market for 3 starters, Lorenzen would be a solid number 5 starter or another long guy from the bullpen who could spot start when injuries pop up. He doesn’t walk many guys and he has a high spin rate and low extension. If he’s signed in conjunction with getting two top half of the rotation starters I would feel very comfortable with their rotation and depth.
The "we don't really know that" rationalization logic ultimately applies the same to both speculative stances there imo. Which in essence is also likely the reason most of the same people who always want to point out "it's early and there are still guys left on the table. geeze stop overreacting to the first couple of signings" don't just start there to begin with. Regardless of the fact those opinionated stances always seem to end up latter collapsing into that after-the-fact anyway.We really really don't know that. The Yamamoto one gets all the attention because nobody else besides Nola staying home would sign until YY did
I guess, except nobody else signed guys so it's not just the Sox. Anyway, I'm sure they know all this about making the next guy feel like he's "our guy," but as I said somewhere today, the next tier guys usually take the most money and point to that as the reason they felt wanted, so if the Sox pony up, it'll probably work. Maybe Imanaga is an exception if he's not open to moving anywhere in the US, but Monty is already in Boston.The "we don't really know that" rationalization logic ultimately applies the same to both speculative stances there imo. Which in essence is also likely the reason most of the same people who always want to point out "it's early and there are still guys left on the table. geeze stop overreacting to the first couple of signings" don't just start there to begin with. Regardless of the fact those opinionated stances always seem to end up latter collapsing into that after-the-fact anyway.
As far as i'm concerned we were never realistically going to get YY. For the same systematic failure point in the big picture that once-upon-a-time worked a lot more then not in our own favor then it is in 2023. There is just no win to be had for teams/owners at the highest end of the competitive bidding rainbow if you can't win a equal value bid, and all you really end up doing is further inflating the market on a losing cause LA was never going to get outbid on. So at face value I'm actually fairly disappointed there hasn't been more leaked speculation on Breslow at least better acknowledging that reality, and potentially being more aggressive asap on other SP option fronts. Attainable options I can at least find more rational speculation buy-in, as opposed to holding out for the lottery ticket payout stuff, within the idea that going out of your way to make one of the "lesser" guys feel like he's *YOUR* #1 from the jump is the better pay actual dividends bet for *us*.
What do you mean? The Cardinals have signed Gray, Lynn, and Gibson. Royals have signed Lugo and Wacha. Arizona landed EdRod, Tigers signed Flaherty. Nola stayed in Philly. Now, maybe none of those guys were under consideration by the Sox for one of their rotation spots, but lots of pitchers have signed.I guess, except nobody else signed guys so it's not just the Sox. Anyway, I'm sure they know all this about making the next guy feel like he's "our guy," but as I said somewhere today, the next tier guys usually take the most money and point to that as the reason they felt wanted, so if the Sox pony up, it'll probably work. Maybe Imanaga is an exception if he's not open to moving anywhere in the US, but Monty is already in Boston.
You know what I mean. The other SP1 types are still there. Nola is the only guy in that tier who signed, because he wanted to stay with his current club.What do you mean? The Cardinals have signed Gray, Lynn, and Gibson. Royals have signed Lugo and Wacha. Arizona landed EdRod, Tigers signed Flaherty. Now, maybe none of those guys were under consideration by the Sox for one of their rotation spots, but lots of pitchers have signed.
Because he threw over 150 innings last season as a starter (where he also made the All-Star game as a starter and threw a perfect game). He would be an improvement over what we currently have and has a high chase rate and high spin rate who doesn’t walk many. The Red Sox need 3 new starters as the depth in AAA is not promising and with injuries you need 7 or 8 dependable starters.Why would you sign another long guy/ multi inning RP/spot starter when they already have an overload of those guys?
While Snell would be the obvious next move, Montgomery seems to be the likeliest move for these Red Sox. And there’s a good chance Montgomery will be the only only significant signing of a starting pitcher in free agency by Breslow.
That’s a bummer.
As I’ve written, Montgomery doesn’t profile as a true No. 1. But he’s better than nothing, and that might as well be the Red Sox’s new slogan. “Greg Weissert, better than nothing” … “Cooper Criswell, better than nothing” … “Jordan Montgomery, better than nothing.”
It’s all kind of subjective; I don’t really see a ton separating Gray, Snell, Rodriguez, or Montgomery. Some of them seem to have better representation than others; each of them would have been the best pitcher on the Sox last year.You know what I mean. The other SP1 types are still there. Nola is the only guy in that tier who signed, because he wanted to stay with his current club.
I think Snell. We need a solid #1.I’m betting they will end up with one of Montgomery, Imanaga, Snell or Stroman (Man or Stroman?). Another SP will come via trade that half the board will hate.
Curious out of the 4 (Monty, Snell, Imanaga or Stroman) who posters would prefer say at 6/180
This is spot on @chrisfont9. Nola obviously wanted to stay in Philly or he could've likely got more. And the only other guy there who could be considered a SP1 is Gray and he seemed to want to go to STL. Plus he doesn't seem like a guy cut out for BOS or the AL East.You know what I mean. The other SP1 types are still there. Nola is the only guy in that tier who signed, because he wanted to stay with his current club.
Snell is definitely a #1 and definitely not solid.I think Snell. We need a solid #1.
This is spot on @chrisfont9. Nola obviously wanted to stay in Philly or he could've likely got more. And the only other guy there who could be considered a SP1 is Gray and he seemed to want to go to STL. Plus he doesn't seem like a guy cut out for BOS or the AL East.
This was where the debate started this offseason. To each his own, I guess, for now; we will have to see it settled on the field next year. Edro left on weird terms though, I was pretty sure he wasn't going to get a look in Boston.It’s all kind of subjective; I don’t really see a ton separating Gray, Snell, Rodriguez, or Montgomery. Some of them seem to have better representation than others; each of them would have been the best pitcher on the Sox last year.
The Sox met with him before he signed with Arizona. They didn't make an offer because they were engaged on Yamamoto. That's also why they didn't get in on Gray.This was where the debate started this offseason. To each his own, I guess, for now; we will have to see it settled on the field next year. Edro left on weird terms though, I was pretty sure he wasn't going to get a look in Boston.
Agreed on Montgomery @moondog80. This is why i continue to mention Imanaga (who, btw, had more K's in Japan than Yamamoto last year) Stroman and Giolito. Would much rather have 2 of these guys on shorter deals for similar overall outlay than just JM.If Jordan Montgomery is the only significant move, they shouldn't bother. Because he alone doesn't move the needle enough for 2024 and he represents increased risk every year beyond that.
That said, it sounds like this guy is guessing just like the rest of us.
By solid, I mean he is a real #1. At least we would have that. Monty is a #2/3 in my opinion and I don't think he is that comparable to Snell to anchor a staff. I like Monty, but I don't think he is the big move we need.Snell is definitely a #1 and definitely not solid.
I agree that Snell is elite and probably the only #1 FA now that YY is gone. The 3 things that worry me about him are 1.) his ability to pitch 175+ innings. 2.) the QO attached to him. 3.) The fact he walked 100 dudes last year. Breslow and Bailey seem to want strike thowers.By solid, I mean he is a real #1. At least we would have that. Monty is a #2/3 in my opinion and I don't think he is that comparable to Snell to anchor a staff. I like Monty, but I don't think he is the big move we need.
Minor point, Montgomery turns 31 next week, BTW, in case anyone was thinking that he had any slight age advantage over Snell.Here are the top free agent SP still unsigned:
LHP Blake Snell (31)
RHP Marcus Stroman (32)
RHP Lucas Giolito (29)
LHP Jordan Montgomery (30)
LHP Clayton Kershaw (35)
LHP James Paxton (35)
LHP Shota Imanaga (30)
RHP Frankie Montas (30)
Top RP still unsigned:
LHP Josh Hader (29)
RHP Jordan Hicks (27)
RHP Hector Neris (34)
RHP Robert Stephenson (30)
LHP Aroldis Chapman (35)
LHP Hyun-Jin Ryu (36)
I think the Sox need to add two starters, though one can come by trade. But Montas is a pretty good pitcher (career 3.90 era, 3.79 fip, 1.29 whip, 9.3 k/9) and I don't think there's any sort of robust market for him. Not an ace, but once he was (2021, when he finished 6th in the CYA voting), so he has legit upside. I'd definitely take a look at him (unless there's some character issue I'm unaware of).
Adding Stroman on a 3-year deal plus Montas would give Boston a significantly upgraded rotation without breaking the bank.
Stroman
Montas
Sale
Bello
Crawford
It would allow both Houck and Whitlock to pitch out of the pen, which would be a huge upgrade there too. Then if they can sign Hader to a large, but short-term, deal, he would be an awesome addition to the pen, and would give the Sox this bullpen:
Houck
Whitlock
Winckowski
Pivetta
Schreiber
Hader
Martin
Jansen
That's four guys who can give you multiple innings in Houck, Whitlock, Pivetta, and Winckowski. It gives you two dominant setup guys in Hader and Martin, and Jansen is still a solid closer. Hader is better than Jansen but I think Jansen fits better in the closer role.
That rotation plus that bullpen would make for an ace-less, but really solid, pitching staff. And it wouldn't cost a fortune. Though maybe Hader wouldn't sign here to be a setup guy, no matter how much money he was getting.
But if they could swing this, I'd be pretty pleased.
Yeah i'm not really as concerned with the potential market standing miscalculations of other teams . Just our's.I guess, except nobody else signed guys so it's not just the Sox.
Which is why they should take a shot on Imanaga. While he’s also 30, I think he has a better chance at returning value relative to his contract. You would be paying Montgomery for his peak numbers, which I doubt you will get over the life of the contract.If Jordan Montgomery is the only significant move, they shouldn't bother. Because he alone doesn't move the needle enough for 2024 and he represents increased risk every year beyond that.
That said, it sounds like this guy is guessing just like the rest of us.
I think YY was the move to make. It didn't go our way, so we must move on. Now it gets a lot more complicated. Montgomery is in his early 30s and doesn't make sense in my opinion unless they plan to bring in an ace as well. Snell is also getting older and he kind of goes against Sox philosophy. If I had to pick between the two, it would be Snell. That said, I am not sure Snell is a good fit here and I have a ton of doubts about bringing both in together. Maybe the Sox do need to go with what they have and see if they can cobble together a workable rotation next season. My expectations are so low for Sale, maybe that is clouding things for me a bit.Yeah i'm not really as concerned with the potential market standing miscalculations of other teams . Just our's.
For us I just generally believe that if you are willing to concede to the current uncapped spending reality where the Sox simply can't and won't compete in a highest level competitive bidding match against a team like the LAD, then THAT default option 2 where you are still expected to be all in on landing at least 1 of those lesser SP1 is the probability outcome equation it makes the most sense to put our priority focus on from the get go. Maybe that isn't the most fun approach by a long shot, but it just makes the most sense imo.
Where i then agree with that initial comment that if Montgomery was gonna be Craig's guy once YY signed with <never gonna be you>, then I like the probability odds of Montgomery jumping early to sign a fairly agressive market value offer to play here put in front of him 3 weeks ago a lot more then I do now and only after that lottery ticket dreaming focus going on elsewhere shifts off YY.
Pretty solid and consistent numbers over his career. He would be my #1 preference.Which is why they should take a shot on Imanaga. While he’s also 30, I think he has a better chance at returning value relative to his contract. You would be paying Montgomery for his peak numbers, which I doubt you will get over the life of the contract.
Maybe a good direction to go in based on what we know.Pretty solid and consistent numbers over his career. He would be my #1 preference.
He does not have a middling fastball.Out of all of the upper end starting pitchers available, Imanaga scares me the most. A left hander with a middling fastball and a 58% fly ball rate pitching in front of a mediocre outfield defense with a short porch in left feels like a recipe for disaster. He’s also on the shorter side at 5’10” with a slim frame and has already had shoulder issues in his career.
His four-seamer is rated as an elite pitch. The guy throws strikes and has a 35% chase rate. His stuff was rated higher than Yamamoto in the WBC. He should be at the top of Breslow’s list.Out of all of the upper end starting pitchers available, Imanaga scares me the most. A left hander with a middling fastball and a 58% fly ball rate pitching in front of a mediocre outfield defense with a short porch in left feels like a recipe for disaster. He’s also on the shorter side at 5’10” with a slim frame and has already had shoulder issues in his career.
Ah, forgot about that. Definite no then.Hader has a QO pick attached, I don't see how that's worth it given that relievers are so far from our area of need.