What does Red Sox starting pitching look like in 2024?
- Thread starter JM3
- Start date
Well he obviously knows Stroman from his Cubs days. I've heard mixed things about him as a clubhouse guy, which isn't awesome. I used to not like to have to face him when he was with Blue Jays. He pitches with a chip on his shoulder as a smaller guy, but man he knows how to pitch and seems to love the big stage with all eyes on him.
As for Imanaga, I only have the WBC to go by, and he looked very good. I'm sure they have done their diligence on him and Alex Speier seems to think the Sox are all over him. He compared the 4yr/80m deal E-Rod signed as a fit...
He can look for it all he wants. Most projections have him getting 5 years, and the only guy who has really outkicked his projection is Yamamoto. Good luck on 8 years.
For me the error bars are troubling (see previous discussions about his HR rate), but again, you have to believe Breslow is looking at vastly superior information with a trained eye, so if they do push their chips in for Imanaga, I'm sure there will have been a good reason.
I’m betting they will end up with one of Montgomery, Imanaga, Snell or Stroman (Man or Stroman?). Another SP will come via trade that half the board will hate.
Curious out of the 4 (Monty, Snell, Imanaga or Stroman) who posters would prefer say at 6/180
Curious out of the 4 (Monty, Snell, Imanaga or Stroman) who posters would prefer say at 6/180
Snell, easily. He's the only one of the bunch that I think has ace level talent.
There aren't any rumors out there (that I've seen) that Montgomery is looking for 7 or 8 years.
The only rumor out there (and since it's from as close to Boras as we can get) is that he's looking for 6/$162m or thereabouts.
I've said that I think you could have enticed him to sign weeks ago (ie before Yamamoto signed) at 7/$175m and I'd have done it (and I think he would have done that because it's a pretty significant overpay. I advocated it because I think the overpay is a lesser evil than missing out on the player. But that's not a rumor, I don't know jack. It's more connecting the dots of what he's been projected at, what Boras (Heyman) has said he wants (and therefore hasn't been offered close to yet) and what I think it would have cost to get him to sign before YY did.
Now that Yamamoto has signed, he's probably back to where the market was - I'm guessing around 6/$138m/$23m and maybe he gets up to around $160m on the high side. I sincerely hope its from the Red Sox because they need him more than any other team.
I'd certainly take Montgomery at 6/$180m of that group. I wouldn't honestly even hate getting both he and Snell at that if you could (and I'm not even a huge Snell fan, but I'd take him at 6/$180m for sure). But forced to think I'm guessing:
Snell - 7 / $190m.
Montgomery - 7 / $160m.
Stroman - 4 /$100m
Imanaga - 5/$100m.
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6/180? I think you might get Stroman and Imanga for that.
Ohtani and Yamamoto were outliers. I don't think anyone else gets close to 30 AAV and 6 years. I'm not sure anyone else gets either.
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Why has there been no talk about Michael Lorenzen? Cora said this week on a podcast that the Red Sox could be in the market for 3 starters, Lorenzen would be a solid number 5 starter or another long guy from the bullpen who could spot start when injuries pop up. He doesn’t walk many guys and he has a high spin rate and low extension. If he’s signed in conjunction with getting two top half of the rotation starters I would feel very comfortable with their rotation and depth.
Hm, I've been stumping for Monty but the numbers all say Snell. Of course, it's baseball, the past only means so much. I guess I will stick with Monty on his trend of incremental improvement, but it's like 51-49 for me.
That’s fair. I imagine if he settles for 5 years, it won’t be for awhile, though.
Lifetime 4.32 FIP that's headed in the wrong direction Lorenzen? We don't need any more JAGs. Do you think there's some latent quality there in that spin rate?
Why would you sign another long guy/ multi inning RP/spot starter when they already have an overload of those guys?
The "we don't really know that" rationalization logic ultimately applies the same to both speculative stances there imo. Which in essence is also likely the reason most of the same people who always want to point out "it's early and there are still guys left on the table. geeze stop overreacting to the first couple of signings" don't just start there to begin with. Regardless of the fact those opinionated stances always seem to end up latter collapsing into that after-the-fact anyway.
As far as i'm concerned we were never realistically going to get YY. For the same systematic failure point in the big picture that once-upon-a-time worked a lot more then not in our own favor then it is in 2023. There is just no win to be had for teams/owners at the highest end of the competitive bidding rainbow if you can't win a equal value bid, and all you really end up doing is further inflating the market on a losing cause LA was never going to get outbid on. So at face value I'm actually fairly disappointed there hasn't been more leaked speculation on Breslow at least better acknowledging that reality, and potentially being more aggressive asap on other SP option fronts. Attainable options I can at least find more rational speculation buy-in, as opposed to holding out for the lottery ticket payout stuff, within the idea that going out of your way to make one of the "lesser" guys feel like he's *YOUR* #1 from the jump is the better pay actual dividends bet for *us*.
I guess, except nobody else signed guys so it's not just the Sox. Anyway, I'm sure they know all this about making the next guy feel like he's "our guy," but as I said somewhere today, the next tier guys usually take the most money and point to that as the reason they felt wanted, so if the Sox pony up, it'll probably work. Maybe Imanaga is an exception if he's not open to moving anywhere in the US, but Monty is already in Boston.
What do you mean? The Cardinals have signed Gray, Lynn, and Gibson. Royals have signed Lugo and Wacha. Arizona landed EdRod, Tigers signed Flaherty. Nola stayed in Philly. Now, maybe none of those guys were under consideration by the Sox for one of their rotation spots, but lots of pitchers have signed.
Imanaga 4yr/90 or 5yr/105.
Stroman 3/yr 70
Giolito 2/yr 39
The first two to say yes you sign. This gives Bailey and Breslow the next couple years to draft, develop, trade, evaluate and hope that one or two of Gonzalez, Perales, or Fitts hits. Along with Bello, Sale (18-20 starts), Pivetta, Crawford and/or Houck and two of the above, they could compete for wild cards if most other things went right.
Stroman 3/yr 70
Giolito 2/yr 39
The first two to say yes you sign. This gives Bailey and Breslow the next couple years to draft, develop, trade, evaluate and hope that one or two of Gonzalez, Perales, or Fitts hits. Along with Bello, Sale (18-20 starts), Pivetta, Crawford and/or Houck and two of the above, they could compete for wild cards if most other things went right.
You know what I mean. The other SP1 types are still there. Nola is the only guy in that tier who signed, because he wanted to stay with his current club.
Because he threw over 150 innings last season as a starter (where he also made the All-Star game as a starter and threw a perfect game). He would be an improvement over what we currently have and has a high chase rate and high spin rate who doesn’t walk many. The Red Sox need 3 new starters as the depth in AAA is not promising and with injuries you need 7 or 8 dependable starters.
It’s all kind of subjective; I don’t really see a ton separating Gray, Snell, Rodriguez, or Montgomery. Some of them seem to have better representation than others; each of them would have been the best pitcher on the Sox last year.
If Jordan Montgomery is the only significant move, they shouldn't bother. Because he alone doesn't move the needle enough for 2024 and he represents increased risk every year beyond that.
That said, it sounds like this guy is guessing just like the rest of us.
That said, it sounds like this guy is guessing just like the rest of us.
This is spot on @chrisfont9. Nola obviously wanted to stay in Philly or he could've likely got more. And the only other guy there who could be considered a SP1 is Gray and he seemed to want to go to STL. Plus he doesn't seem like a guy cut out for BOS or the AL East.
This was where the debate started this offseason. To each his own, I guess, for now; we will have to see it settled on the field next year. Edro left on weird terms though, I was pretty sure he wasn't going to get a look in Boston.
The Sox met with him before he signed with Arizona. They didn't make an offer because they were engaged on Yamamoto. That's also why they didn't get in on Gray.
We'll see how things play out, but at the moment this seems like a missed opportunity.
https://nesn.com/2023/12/why-red-sox-reportedly-didnt-make-offer-to-eduardo-rodriguez/
Agreed on Montgomery @moondog80. This is why i continue to mention Imanaga (who, btw, had more K's in Japan than Yamamoto last year) Stroman and Giolito. Would much rather have 2 of these guys on shorter deals for similar overall outlay than just JM.
By solid, I mean he is a real #1. At least we would have that. Monty is a #2/3 in my opinion and I don't think he is that comparable to Snell to anchor a staff. I like Monty, but I don't think he is the big move we need.
I agree that Snell is elite and probably the only #1 FA now that YY is gone. The 3 things that worry me about him are 1.) his ability to pitch 175+ innings. 2.) the QO attached to him. 3.) The fact he walked 100 dudes last year. Breslow and Bailey seem to want strike thowers.
Here are the top free agent SP still unsigned:
LHP Blake Snell (31)
RHP Marcus Stroman (32)
RHP Lucas Giolito (29)
LHP Jordan Montgomery (30)
LHP Clayton Kershaw (35)
LHP James Paxton (35)
LHP Shota Imanaga (30)
RHP Frankie Montas (30)
Top RP still unsigned:
LHP Josh Hader (29)
RHP Jordan Hicks (27)
RHP Hector Neris (34)
RHP Robert Stephenson (30)
LHP Aroldis Chapman (35)
LHP Hyun-Jin Ryu (36)
I think the Sox need to add two starters, though one can come by trade. But Montas is a pretty good pitcher (career 3.90 era, 3.79 fip, 1.29 whip, 9.3 k/9) and I don't think there's any sort of robust market for him. Not an ace, but once he was (2021, when he finished 6th in the CYA voting), so he has legit upside. I'd definitely take a look at him (unless there's some character issue I'm unaware of).
Adding Stroman on a 3-year deal plus Montas would give Boston a significantly upgraded rotation without breaking the bank.
Stroman
Montas
Sale
Bello
Crawford
It would allow both Houck and Whitlock to pitch out of the pen, which would be a huge upgrade there too. Then if they can sign Hader to a large, but short-term, deal, he would be an awesome addition to the pen, and would give the Sox this bullpen:
Houck
Whitlock
Winckowski
Pivetta
Schreiber
Hader
Martin
Jansen
That's four guys who can give you multiple innings in Houck, Whitlock, Pivetta, and Winckowski. It gives you two dominant setup guys in Hader and Martin, and Jansen is still a solid closer. Hader is better than Jansen but I think Jansen fits better in the closer role.
That rotation plus that bullpen would make for an ace-less, but really solid, pitching staff. And it wouldn't cost a fortune. Though maybe Hader wouldn't sign here to be a setup guy, no matter how much money he was getting.
But if they could swing this, I'd be pretty pleased.
LHP Blake Snell (31)
RHP Marcus Stroman (32)
RHP Lucas Giolito (29)
LHP Jordan Montgomery (30)
LHP Clayton Kershaw (35)
LHP James Paxton (35)
LHP Shota Imanaga (30)
RHP Frankie Montas (30)
Top RP still unsigned:
LHP Josh Hader (29)
RHP Jordan Hicks (27)
RHP Hector Neris (34)
RHP Robert Stephenson (30)
LHP Aroldis Chapman (35)
LHP Hyun-Jin Ryu (36)
I think the Sox need to add two starters, though one can come by trade. But Montas is a pretty good pitcher (career 3.90 era, 3.79 fip, 1.29 whip, 9.3 k/9) and I don't think there's any sort of robust market for him. Not an ace, but once he was (2021, when he finished 6th in the CYA voting), so he has legit upside. I'd definitely take a look at him (unless there's some character issue I'm unaware of).
Adding Stroman on a 3-year deal plus Montas would give Boston a significantly upgraded rotation without breaking the bank.
Stroman
Montas
Sale
Bello
Crawford
It would allow both Houck and Whitlock to pitch out of the pen, which would be a huge upgrade there too. Then if they can sign Hader to a large, but short-term, deal, he would be an awesome addition to the pen, and would give the Sox this bullpen:
Houck
Whitlock
Winckowski
Pivetta
Schreiber
Hader
Martin
Jansen
That's four guys who can give you multiple innings in Houck, Whitlock, Pivetta, and Winckowski. It gives you two dominant setup guys in Hader and Martin, and Jansen is still a solid closer. Hader is better than Jansen but I think Jansen fits better in the closer role.
That rotation plus that bullpen would make for an ace-less, but really solid, pitching staff. And it wouldn't cost a fortune. Though maybe Hader wouldn't sign here to be a setup guy, no matter how much money he was getting.
But if they could swing this, I'd be pretty pleased.
Minor point, Montgomery turns 31 next week, BTW, in case anyone was thinking that he had any slight age advantage over Snell.
Yeah i'm not really as concerned with the potential market standing miscalculations of other teams . Just our's.
For us I just generally believe that if you are willing to concede to the current uncapped spending reality where the Sox simply can't and won't compete in a highest level competitive bidding match against a team like the LAD, then THAT default option 2 where you are still expected to be all in on landing at least 1 of those lesser SP1 is the probability outcome equation it makes the most sense to put our priority focus on from the get go. Maybe that isn't the most fun approach by a long shot, but it just makes the most sense imo.
Where i then agree with that initial comment that if Montgomery was gonna be Craig's guy once YY signed with <never gonna be you>, then I like the probability odds of Montgomery jumping early to sign a fairly agressive market value offer to play here put in front of him 3 weeks ago a lot more then I do now and only after that lottery ticket dreaming focus going on elsewhere shifts off YY.
Which is why they should take a shot on Imanaga. While he’s also 30, I think he has a better chance at returning value relative to his contract. You would be paying Montgomery for his peak numbers, which I doubt you will get over the life of the contract.
I think YY was the move to make. It didn't go our way, so we must move on. Now it gets a lot more complicated. Montgomery is in his early 30s and doesn't make sense in my opinion unless they plan to bring in an ace as well. Snell is also getting older and he kind of goes against Sox philosophy. If I had to pick between the two, it would be Snell. That said, I am not sure Snell is a good fit here and I have a ton of doubts about bringing both in together. Maybe the Sox do need to go with what they have and see if they can cobble together a workable rotation next season. My expectations are so low for Sale, maybe that is clouding things for me a bit.
Pretty solid and consistent numbers over his career. He would be my #1 preference.
Out of all of the upper end starting pitchers available, Imanaga scares me the most. A left hander with a middling fastball and a 58% fly ball rate pitching in front of a mediocre outfield defense with a short porch in left feels like a recipe for disaster. He’s also on the shorter side at 5’10” with a slim frame and has already had shoulder issues in his career.
Assuming there aren’t character concerns or big issues with Stroman and Boston, I think I’ve settled on Imanaga/Stroman combo. Give Imanaga 5 year deal and 3 for Stroman. Neither is the ace we’re looking for but both guys would be nice upgrades to our rotation. Continue to want no part of Snell and I feel like that situation will resolve itself anyways. Would only take Giolito on super cheap deal. Someone else is probably going to outbid us for Montgomery and I’m ok with that. If Breslow wants to get really cheeky, I’d be interested in a Jansen trade and Hader signing but can’t see the team willing to commit what it would take to land Hader.
He does not have a middling fastball.
His main issue is he throws far too many fastball, he throws them down in the zone, and he doesn’t properly use secondary early in the count.
His stuff is gross. Far from middling. Electric stuff. It just appears he has some very odd pitch sequencing and pitch decisions. He’d require some work, but there is significant upside there and Breslow and Bailey think they can fix sequencing.
His four-seamer is rated as an elite pitch. The guy throws strikes and has a 35% chase rate. His stuff was rated higher than Yamamoto in the WBC. He should be at the top of Breslow’s list.
I don’t know if this scouting report from Fangraphs is accurate but here’s what it says about Imanaga’s repertoire:
“Imanaga has enjoyed a gradual velocity increase since entering pro ball in 2016, culminating in a strong 2023 walk year when he set a personal record for average fastball velo across an entire season (92 mph), as well as bests in strikeout rate (29%) and xFIP (2.38) in his 143 IP. His fastballs play up a bit due to his command and his low release, which is mostly created by his powerful, flexible lower body and drop-and-drive style of delivery. His low-80s slider is his finishing secondary pitch; it has plus two-plane wipe and, like the rest of his repertoire, is aided by Imanaga’s ability to locate. His stuff is otherwise pretty pedestrian.”
https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/international-players
“Imanaga has enjoyed a gradual velocity increase since entering pro ball in 2016, culminating in a strong 2023 walk year when he set a personal record for average fastball velo across an entire season (92 mph), as well as bests in strikeout rate (29%) and xFIP (2.38) in his 143 IP. His fastballs play up a bit due to his command and his low release, which is mostly created by his powerful, flexible lower body and drop-and-drive style of delivery. His low-80s slider is his finishing secondary pitch; it has plus two-plane wipe and, like the rest of his repertoire, is aided by Imanaga’s ability to locate. His stuff is otherwise pretty pedestrian.”
https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/international-players
Fangraphs has projections for all of these guys, and while the projections aren't at all perfect, at least they are unbiased and based on more evidence than our own feelings, or impressions, or ideas of who is a "#1 starter" or a #2 or whatever.
Montgomery:
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jordan-montgomery/16511/stats?position=P
190 IP, 3.84 ERA, 4.04 FIP, 3.2 fWAR.
Imanaga:
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/shota-imanaga/sa3023346/stats?position=P
148 IP, 3.84 ERA, 3.91 FIP, 2.6 fWAR
Snell:
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/blake-snell/13543/stats?position=P
174 IP, 3.65 ERA, 3.73 FIP, 3.3 fWAR
Strohman:
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/marcus-stroman/13431/stats?position=P
189 IP, 4.11 ERA, 4.15 FIP, 2.6 fWAR
Giolito
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/lucas-giolito/15474/stats?position=P
164 IP, 4.31 ERA, 4.39 FIP, 2.3 fWAR
Lorenzen:
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/michael-lorenzen/14843/stats?position=P
158 IP, 4.72 ERA, 4.77 FIP, 1.2 fWAR
For the hell of it, here's what they project for Yamamoto:
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/yoshinobu-yamamoto/sa3023345/stats?position=P
184 IP, 3.97 ERA, 3.95 FIP, 3.4 fWAR
Montgomery:
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jordan-montgomery/16511/stats?position=P
190 IP, 3.84 ERA, 4.04 FIP, 3.2 fWAR.
Imanaga:
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/shota-imanaga/sa3023346/stats?position=P
148 IP, 3.84 ERA, 3.91 FIP, 2.6 fWAR
Snell:
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/blake-snell/13543/stats?position=P
174 IP, 3.65 ERA, 3.73 FIP, 3.3 fWAR
Strohman:
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/marcus-stroman/13431/stats?position=P
189 IP, 4.11 ERA, 4.15 FIP, 2.6 fWAR
Giolito
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/lucas-giolito/15474/stats?position=P
164 IP, 4.31 ERA, 4.39 FIP, 2.3 fWAR
Lorenzen:
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/michael-lorenzen/14843/stats?position=P
158 IP, 4.72 ERA, 4.77 FIP, 1.2 fWAR
For the hell of it, here's what they project for Yamamoto:
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/yoshinobu-yamamoto/sa3023345/stats?position=P
184 IP, 3.97 ERA, 3.95 FIP, 3.4 fWAR
I'd take those roughly 350 innings pitched and those Fangraphs projections for Imanaga and Stroman if they could both be had for around the same total outlay as Snell OR Montgomery are reportedly seeking. Imanaga 5yr/105m, Stroman 3yr/70m.
Lugo, Rodriguez, Gray, and Glasnow are all projected in the 2.8 - 3.2 fWAR projection range too. Burnes is 3.4, Cease 3.7. So it certainly seems like most of these guys are coming in around the same and there isn’t a ton differentiating most of them.
I'm thinking Montgomery ends up with the Yankees for something like 6/162 at this point. That feels about right.