What does Red Sox starting pitching look like in 2024?

[Petagine in a Bottle]

It sure it. But that's why I made my original point that I don't think they'll go for two in free agency. I've never loved free agency, because you're at the mercy of what happens to be on the market that year. Targeting a trade with prospect capital can potentially give them an option of someone who they feel has a high chance of success. But it will always be risky.

Burnes is basically like a free agent though- you get one year at his last year of arb rate and then need to extend him at a close to market rate.

I think they need to trade for someone with more control. Burnes teammate, Freddy Peralta, would be ideal- 3 years / $22M left for his age 28-30 years. But, Milwaukee would ask for a haul.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Burnes is basically like a free agent though- you get one year at his last year of arb rate and then need to extend him at a close to market rate.

I think they need to trade for someone with more control. Burnes teammate, Freddy Peralta, would be ideal- 3 years / $22M left for his age 28-30 years. But, Milwaukee would ask for a haul.

I just think that Peralta is exactly the type of pitcher that the Brewers keep. So yeah, it would have to be a crazy haul.

 

[YTF]

I don’t disagree, but damn, you better hope it all works out, or you are looking at Sale-Price again. Two huge contracts to pitchers is still risky.

It's all risky. Do you prefer doing something when you're in the best position to do so or keep on as you have been? Presumably this is the off season that we've been waiting for and the need is great. Not for nothing but Sale and Price did help bring a championship, but I understand the financial concern that you're expressing.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

It's all risky. Do you prefer doing something when you're in the best position to do so or keep on as you have been? Presumably this is the off season that we've been waiting for and the need is great. Not for nothing but Sale and Price did help bring a championship, but I understand the financial concern that you're expressing.

I guess it all depends- do you fundamentally think that the the contracts the Red Sox gave to Price and Sale were bad ideas in general, or just bad specifically because of the players they chose? I get that there’s all this talent coming up but these players will need to be extended if they are good- if you are paying two pitchers something like $55-$60M combined per year, it’s potentially going to make things more difficult down the road, as it did the last time they had two really highly paid pitchers.

I think one top of the market starter (acquired via FA), and another, ideally, younger cheaper and cost controlled one acquired via trade are probably the way to go.

 

[simplicio]

Which brings us back to: who's actually out there selling young starters with multiple years of control?

 

[YTF]

I guess it all depends- do you fundamentally think that the the contracts the Red Sox gave to Price and Sale were bad ideas in general, or just bad specifically because of the players they chose? I get that there’s all this talent coming up but these players will need to be extended if they are good- if you are paying two pitchers something like $55-$60M combined per year, it’s potentially going to make things more difficult down the road, as it did the last time they had two really highly paid pitchers.

I think one top of the market starter (acquired via FA), and another, ideally, younger cheaper and cost controlled one acquired via trade are probably the way to go.

Wish I had thought of that.

100% this. This is the first season under Bloom that the Sox have had a decent amount of both. I think the working number here on the cash available next season is in the neighborhood of $80M. Part of that is going to have to go toward arbitration and extensions. I've no idea what that amount might be but just for the Hell of it lets say that ties up $30M leaving $50M. It's likely that at least $30M of that is needed to land one of the big FA fish. Will the remainder be enough to fetch another #1 or #2 type? I think this is where Bloom is going to have to wheel and deal to find a good young pitcher with at least a couple of years of control left. Do I have any idea who that might be? Nope, I honestly don't know the league well enough to toss out suggestions, but I do feel that this is a path that Chaim's going to have to explore to land two arms to help Bello lead the '24 rotation.

 

[RS2004foreever]

With respect to a trade - a reasonable template is the Rays deal for Aaron Civale. Civele has 2+ years of control and he cost the 38th ranking project in the Minors.
The simple truth is the Red Sox farm system went nearly a decade without producing anyone who looked like a front-line starter (Bello is arguably the first since Lester).

I hear a lot of resistance to signing a free agent. I get it in part - but there isn't anything really in the minors coming. So the Red Sox don't have a choice and resigning guys to short-term deals is unlikely to make the Red Sox competitive. That means a trade or Free Agency.

If they do nothing they are probably not a playoff team - and I do think the Red Sox brand is getting hurt at this point. I can't imagine the Red Sox not doing something significant about the pitching.

There was progress in '23 in terms of positional players.
If you look at it:
Total Cost $112
Wong - not eligible for arb until '28
Casas - eligible for arb in '27
Urias - Free agent in '26 (Or someone else)
Story - under contract $20 million, opt out in '26
Devers - $30 million
Yoshida - $18 million through '27
Duran - eligible for arb in '26
Rafaela - Free agent in '29?
Refsnyder - $2 million through '25

I would resign Turner - maybe that costs $15 million (people underestimate how hard it will be to replace his production)
I would resign Duvall as well - maybe that costs $25 million for 2 years.

But that still leaves plenty of money to go get pitching.

 

[Brohamer of the Gods]

One thing to keep in mind about Turner is they are on the hook for $6.7 million no matter what happens. If he is signable for $15 million next year, you have to think of who you would replace him with for $9 million.

I'm off the Paxton train as across the board Pivetta and Crawford have similar or better numbers.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

The $6.7 million is accounted for off the 23 payroll though, right? I think you have it think of it is a sunk cost.

 

[PapnMillsy]

Why is that? If anything I would expect the opposite. Unlike Sale, who outside of the late-April/early-May stretch has never looked like his old self, Paxton has. Why would wearing down over the course of his first full season in like three or four years suggest a permanent loss of stuff?

What? Sale looked pretty good in his return from TJ in 2021. Arguably better than Paxton has been this year. And he was good in his very limited sample in 2022.

 

[simplicio]

Julio Urias gets arrested for felony domestic violence so we can scratch that shitty name off the list.

 

[bosockboy]

Everyone just got more expensive.

 

[The Filthy One]

This is his second domestic violence arrest in the last four years. Let’s pass on him, please.

 

[bosockboy]

This is his second domestic violence arrest in the last four years. Let’s pass on him, please.

I suspect we won’t have that option. Which is how it should be.

 

[chrisfont9]

I suspect we won’t have that option. Which is how it should be.

Max penalty is four years in prison. His first one wasn't charged so this will go as a first offense I guess. He's not quite at Trevor Bauer levels of shame (yet), but Bauer got frozen out based on a few restraining orders, not actual criminal charges. So this is probably it for Urias for a while.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Max penalty is four years in prison. His first one wasn't charged so this will go as a first offense I guess. He's not quite at Trevor Bauer levels of shame (yet), but Bauer got frozen out based on a few restraining orders, not actual criminal charges. So this is probably it for Urias for a while.

Man the Dodgers really know how to pick them....

 

[chrisfont9]

Urias being off the list probably makes Ian Snell or (longer shot) Aaron Nola more likely targets? All we can do is guess but they are both just 30, whereas Giolito is the only other big name below thirty (along with Yamamoto of course), so to the extent that the Sox view age as a big part of their risk tolerance, they would be next up.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Urias being off the list probably makes Ian Snell or (longer shot) Aaron Nola more likely targets? All we can do is guess but they are both just 30, whereas Giolito is the only other big name below thirty (along with Yamamoto of course), so to the extent that the Sox view age as a big part of their risk tolerance, they would be next up.

Ian Snell would be very cheap. Blake Snell would not, and he seems like the kind of guy who is going to get a contract I want no part of.

 

[azsoxpatsfan]

Ian Snell would be very cheap. Blake Snell would not, and he seems like the kind of guy who is going to get a contract I want to part of.

It would be an incredible comeback story, though. I’m rooting for him

 

[chrisfont9]

Ian Snell would be very cheap. Blake Snell would not, and he seems like the kind of guy who is going to get a contract I want to part of.

I'm heartened to know that at least half my brain is working...

 

[Sin Duda]

It would be an incredible comeback story, though. I’m rooting for him

Well played

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

Ian Snell would be very cheap. Blake Snell would not, and he seems like the kind of guy who is going to get a contract I want to part of.

Yep, I’ve said it before, but I would pass on Snell and his many walks.

 

[chawson]

Urias being off the list probably makes Ian Snell or (longer shot) Aaron Nola more likely targets? All we can do is guess but they are both just 30, whereas Giolito is the only other big name below thirty (along with Yamamoto of course), so to the extent that the Sox view age as a big part of their risk tolerance, they would be next up.

Giolito is a mess but I can think of worse reclamation projects. He had a pretty strong few months there from early April to July. He seems like someone the Dodgers will sign to a 1/$10 deal and coax a 3-win season from.

I don't think the Sox go after (Blake) Snell, Nola or Sonny Gray, who will all get QOs. The way I'm looking at it, there are four tiers of starters who seem like good fits.

Tier One
Yamamoto, Montgomery, E-Rod

Tier Two
Paxton, Giolito, Flaherty, Gibson, Maeda, Ryu
These guys are probably getting two years max.

Tier Three (trade)
Bieber, Singer, Skubal, Oviedo, Rogers, Cabrera, Matz
Maybe Verdugo and someone like Hunter Dobbins or Angel Bastardo can be put toward this effort.

Tier Four (the three rehabbing SP2s)
Montas, Mahle, Márquez
This would be a creatively structured deal roughly similar to the Paxton contract.

The Sox should acquire one pitcher from at least two tiers, preferably three. Prepare Whitlock, Houck, Crawford and Pivetta as starters throughout the offseason, and adjust accordingly once the season begins. Whitlock is here to stay, but if they can somehow land one starter from three of the above tiers, then it should free up Houck, Crawford and/or Pivetta for trades.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

Giolito is a mess but I can think of worse reclamation projects. He had a pretty strong few months there from early April to July. He seems like someone the Dodgers will sign to a 1/$10 deal and coax a 3-win season from.

I don't think the Sox go after (Blake) Snell, Nola or Sonny Gray, who will all get QOs. The way I'm looking at it, there are four tiers of starters who seem like good fits.

Tier One
Yamamoto, Montgomery, E-Rod

Tier Two
Paxton, Giolito, Flaherty, Gibson, Maeda, Ryu
These guys are probably getting two years max.

Tier Three (trade)
Bieber, Singer, Skubal, Oviedo, Rogers, Cabrera, Matz
Maybe Verdugo and someone like Hunter Dobbins or Angel Bastardo can be put toward this effort.

Tier Four (the three rehabbing SP2s)
Montas, Mahle, Márquez
This would be a creatively structured deal roughly similar to the Paxton contract.

The Sox should acquire one pitcher from at least two tiers, preferably three. Prepare Whitlock, Houck, Crawford and Pivetta as starters throughout the offseason, and adjust accordingly once the season begins. Whitlock is here to stay, but if they can somehow land one starter from three of the above tiers, then it should free up Houck, Crawford and/or Pivetta for trades.

I agree with a ton of this. Only caveat I'll add in is that I think they have to acquire at least two pitchers from the first and third tiers. Adding a pitcher from one of your first three tiers and a pitcher from the 4th isn't enough, and puts the rotation right back in the same place it's been since completion of the 2019 season.

I'm more and more on board with the idea of Montgomery as an FA signing and then a trade for a "tier three" type, but one that could be reasonably seen to be a top half of the rotation starter with term. Like many others, I'd prefer to have Yamamoto, but I don't think the Sox will spend what it takes to land him. Montgomery is a good pitcher that I can see them spending what it takes to land.

My hope for the rotation is Yamamoto, Bello, trade for "Gilbert" (again, this is a "hope" not necessarily realistic), Houck and "Crawvetta".

Not for nothing, but I'd be much more interested in taking a shot on Flaherty or Giolito than another turn with Paxton. They all have xFIPs at 4.00 or above (4.44; 4.55; 4.00, respectively) but I'd rather take the chances on younger pitchers. As such, I think Giolito would be my "first pick" from that group since he's at least been durable but I really hope that we land better than these.

I think it's probably more likely to be Bello, Montgomery, Houck, Crawford, Pivetta and someone from the "second" or "fourth" tiers, which I don't think is likely enough to get back into the playoffs, but it'd at least be an improvement on the 2022 and 2023 "error bars" rotations (Sale will be here as well for his customary lets call it 15ish starts).

 

[chrisfont9]

I agree with a ton of this. Only caveat I'll add in is that I think they have to acquire at least two pitchers from the first three tiers. Adding a pitcher from one of your first three tiers and a pitcher from the 4th isn't enough, and puts the rotation right back in the same place it's been since completion of the 2019 season.

I'm more and more on board with the idea of Montgomery as an FA signing and then a trade for a "tier three" type, but one that could be reasonably seen to be a top half of the rotation starter with term. Like many others, I'd prefer to have Yamamoto, but I don't think the Sox will spend what it takes to land him. Montgomery is a good pitcher that I can see them spending what it takes to land.

My hope for the rotation is Yamamoto, Bello, trade for "Gilbert" (again, this is a "hope" not necessarily realistic), Houck and "Crawvetta".

Not for nothing, but I'd be much more interested in taking a shot on Flaherty or Giolito than another turn with Paxton. They all have xFIPs at 4.00 or above (4.44; 4.55; 4.00, respectively) but I'd rather take the chances on younger pitchers. As such, I think Giolito would be my "first pick" from that group since he's at least been durable but I really hope that we land better than these.

I think it's probably more likely to be Bello, Montgomery, Houck, Crawford, Pivetta and someone from the "second" or "fourth" tiers, which I don't think is likely enough to get back into the playoffs, but it'd at least be an improvement on the 2022 and 2023 "error bars" rotations (Sale will be here as well for his customary lets call it 15ish starts).

Agree and will add that they really probably need one from the top tier, or maybe push the chips in and get two. Their current staff is already full of guys who are the equivalent of tiers 2-4, with only Bello on a trajectory to exceed that.

 

[Trapaholic]

I like Kutter Crawford. This is a case where he was a bit of a "swing guy" this year and last. The team needed a starter, and he stepped in and has performed admirably in my opinion.

Looks like he has the stuff and the makeup. Much like Eddy Rodriguez, he gets in trouble because he is not efficient. This is where we see a lot of 90-plus pitch, >5 inning performances. I feel that this is something that can be addressed and fixed.

If this guy is your 4th or 5th starter, the team is in a good spot. Having terrible defense behind him does not help either, such is the case with every Red Sox pitcher.

 

[Tokyo Sox]

Another name to perhaps add to the "potential free agents" list is the guy who started the WBC Final for Japan, Shota Imanaga. He's 5 years older than Yamamoto but has gotten better each of the last three seasons, currently pitching to a 1.99 ERA / 0.85 WHIP line in 14 starts this year.

Minor technical point but neither Yamamoto nor Imanaga are actual FA's though, they would both need to be posted. But there shouldn't be any roadblocks there; the teams will post them if they want to go.

Imanaga will indeed look to head to MLB for 2024:
https://www.mlb.com/news/shota-imanaga-to-be-posted-to-mlb-clubs

Here's a Yakyu Cosmo twitter thread from July on pitchers who may make the move for next season, with a bit of color on Imanaga:
View: https://twitter.com/yakyucosmo/status/1681527521135980544?s=20


When I made the original post above he was having a great stretch -- he had a 1.15 ERA/0.727 WHIP across 55 innings in 7 June/July starts. But since the start of August he's had 6 starts / 33 IP, and thrown to a 5.18 ERA/1.64 WHIP line. I haven't seen any of his starts lately so no idea what's going on there. He's still K'ing a bunch of guys at least.

 

[JM3]

Looks like if Crawford is starting next year they might want to work on his pitch mix.

View: https://twitter.com/RRyanmedeiros/status/1699181077808480567

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Looks like if Crawford is starting next year they might want to work on his pitch mix.

View: https://twitter.com/RRyanmedeiros/status/1699181077808480567

Isn’t this something you’d expect the pitching analytics department to notice?
Perhaps they have and advised him not to use it often? But those numbers are crazy

 

[Fishy1]

Isn’t this something you’d expect the pitching analytics department to notice?
Perhaps they have and advised him not to use it often? But those numbers are crazy

Seriously. I wonder if it's something to do with the wear the sweeper puts on his arm?

 

[nvalvo]

IMO, the thing that needs figuring out with Crawford is why the red line in the attached chart has declined so precipitously.

 

[Yo La Tengo]

Seriously. I wonder if it's something to do with the wear the sweeper puts on his arm?

I wonder if bad sweepers are being charted as curveballs.

 

[Rovin Romine]

IMO, the thing that needs figuring out with Crawford is why the red line in the attached chart has declined so precipitously.

Sort for fastball velocity by game and tell me what you see. . .

 

[JM3]

Will have to cross German Marquez off the list of possibilities.

View: https://twitter.com/JeffPassan/status/1700242205246406845

 

[nvalvo]

Sort for fastball velocity by game and tell me what you see. . .

I don't know how to sort on baseballsavant, but...



The magnitudes here aren't huge given the change in swing and miss.

In a way, that would be a pretty bullish explanation looking forward.

 

[Tokyo Sox]

Yamamoto just threw his 2nd career no-hitter. Hit a guy and walked a guy, 8 K's, 102 pitches.

 

[JM3]

I don't hate the general concept of Snell as much as some of you do, but it's probably not happening.

View: https://twitter.com/RotoClegg/status/1700487152973250739

 

[JM3]

Yamamoto just threw his 2nd career no-hitter. Hit a guy and walked a guy, 8 K's, 102 pitches.

View: https://twitter.com/tylermilliken_/status/1700490452078588382

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

What’s his likely cost?
When does that process start for him too?

 

[JM3]

George Kirby disgruntled about being left on the game too long. I have exciting news for George Kirby about the Red Sox...

View: https://twitter.com/Jake_M_Garcia/status/1700328461267796153

 

[JM3]

What’s his likely cost?
When does that process start for him too?

I think it's the same time frame as regular free agency, but would have to double check.

There is a posting tax element in the new agreement (different than the Daisuke process):

According to the agreement between MLB and NPB, for teams that decide to sign Japanese League players for more than $50 million, the release fee will be 20 percent of the first $25 million plus 17.5 percent of the next $25 million plus 15 percent of the total guaranteed value exceeding $50 million.

This article posits 9/$207m or 8/$192m.

The release fee on a $200m contract would be just under $32m.

The Mets can guarantee more years than the rest of the team but with an AAV slightly less than $23 million for nine seasons for a total value of $207 million, thus surpassing the $200 million barrier. On the other hand, the team can offer an increase in AAV to $24 million, reducing the number of years of commitment to eight years ending with a total value of $192 million.

https://risingapple.com/posts/ny-mets-rumors-yoshinobu-yamamoto-contract

 

[Max Power]

George Kirby disgruntled about being left on the game too long. I have exciting news for George Kirby about the Red Sox...

View: https://twitter.com/Jake_M_Garcia/status/1700328461267796153

"Let those bullpen guys tear their arms up so I don't ever have to throw more than 90 pitches." I'm sure his teammates will love hearing that in the heat of a playoff race.

 

[Tokyo Sox]

What’s his likely cost?
When does that process start for him too?

The posting window is officially November 1st-February 1st. But Orix is currently in 1st place in the Pacific League and may well be playing baseball into late October or early November. I wouldn't expect him to try to focus on posting negotiations until at least a week or two after his season here is over, probably.

There is a posting tax element in the new agreement (different than the Daisuke process):

This article posits 9/$207m or 8/$192m.

The release fee on a $200m contract would be just under $32m.



https://risingapple.com/posts/ny-mets-rumors-yoshinobu-yamamoto-contract

Yeah I think you're looking at a contract of at least 8/200 at this point but who knows. As for the posting fee, it's potentially a bit confusing to call it a "posting tax"; that's just how the fee is structured now. And as a reminder only the contract counts against the luxury tax threshold, the posting fee does not.

 

[JM3]

The posting window is officially November 1st-February 1st. But Orix is currently in 1st place in the Pacific League and may well be playing baseball into late October or early November. I wouldn't expect him to try to focus on posting negotiations until at least a week or two after his season here is over, probably.


Yeah I think you're looking at a contract of at least 8/200 at this point but who knows. As for the posting fee, it's potentially a bit confusing to call it a "posting tax"; that's just how the fee is structured now. And as a reminder only the contract counts against the luxury tax threshold, the posting fee does not.

I just used it as a shorthand to show that it's a calculation based on the dollar value of the contract that doesn't count toward the MLB tax threshold, but yeah, it's lazy terminology by me.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

So the Sox road to contention next year seems dependent on spending $300M+ to land two top of the rotation starters, and hoping it works out. Man, just hope they pick the right guys.

 

[LogansDad]

"Let those bullpen guys tear their arms up so I don't ever have to throw more than 90 pitches." I'm sure his teammates will love hearing that in the heat of a playoff race.

He's a kid making league minimum and they have a good bullpen, with guys whose job is to pitch the 7th through 9th.

He's not wrong, and if his arm blows up he has a lot to lose.

 

[Comfortably Lomb]

He's a kid making league minimum and they have a good bullpen, with guys whose job is to pitch the 7th through 9th.

He's not wrong, and if his arm blows up he has a lot to lose.

Right. And if he felt he was out of gas after 90 pitches and 6 innings he shouldn't have been sent out there anyway.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

So the Sox road to contention next year seems dependent on spending $300M+ to land two top of the rotation starters, and hoping it works out. Man, just hope they pick the right guys.

Isn’t that the case with every long term free agent signing? I mean, they aren’t just throwing darts, they're scouting and forming a strategy, but in the end, all long term deals are risky. Committing long term to a 25 year old star like Yamamoto would seem to be right in line with the Sox strategy, and a risk worth taking.

 

[PRabbit]

When was the last time, really, that a team doled out significant (well, not as significant as the $$$ being talked about for Yamamoto) money on a Japanese player and didn't work out?

The Sox, probably, about 16 years ago.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

When was the last time, really, that a team doled out significant (well, not as significant as the $$$ being talked about for Yamamoto) money on a Japanese player and didn't work out?

The Sox, probably, about 16 years ago.

Pretty sure you mean the Yankees about 16 years ago. The Sox got relatively fair value for their Japanese signings around that time.

There was also the Yankees about 26 years ago.