What does Red Sox starting pitching look like in 2024?
- Thread starter JM3
- Start date
How else to respond to the “no way anyone could realistically have done better” assertion?
& here are the hitters who lets say got more than Rogers...
Marcelo Mayer $6.7m (#1) - '21 1st round
Kyle Teel $4m (#3) - '23 1st round
Nazzan Zanetello $3m (#14) - '23 2nd round
Nick Yorke $2.7m (#11) - '20 1st round
Roman Anthony $2.5m (#2) - '22 2nd round
Mikey Romero $2.3m (#13) - '22 1st round
Cutter Coffey $1.8m (#40) - '22 2nd round
Blaze Jordan $1.8m (#15) - '20 3rd round
Antonio Anderson $1.5m (#28) - '23 3rd round
Nathan Hickey $1m (#29) - '21 5th round
Tyler McDonough $829k (#71) - '21 3rd round
Brooks Brannon $713k (#31) - '22 9th round
Justin Riemer $500k (#48) - '23 4th rounder
Kristian Campbell $493k (#23) - '23 4th rounder
I wasn't using that to say they did bad work on IFA pitching - just that they hadn't spent much money on it. The rankings were mostly just for reference. The '19 & '20 IFA periods were combined & Eddie Romero spent a lot of $$$ on CJ Liu ($750k) after Dombrowski was fired & before Bloom took over so Bloom didn't have much money to spend on that. That class did include Luis Perales ($85k) & Allan Castro ($100k), though. Bloom spent $$$ on 2 guys after taking over - YORDANNY, which is obviously a great investment for $35k & Stiwar Adames, who was cut Nov. '22 & was not a great investment for $50k.
The '21 class is still so recent/young that Paez hasn't turned 20 yet, & has already had a rather successful A-Ball season. But yeah, no matter how much they had invested in IFA pitching, they would not have gotten anything at the MLB level from it, yet.
Yeah, I wasn't trying to say they should have gotten anything from the IFA pitching side at the MLB level, to be clear. But I think they could have had more tradable SP prospects than they do at the various levels of the minors, or more pitching prospects to hope on.
They certainly could have gotten more from the draft than they did, both in MLB now but also at the higher levels of the minors.
They also could have some decent rotation pieces for the "pitching gap" that wouldn't have broken the bank, or at least TRIED (I don't mean Gausman or Rodon) but guys like Chris Bassitt, outbid the Cubs for for Taillon (which I advocated also and he wasn't good last year, so I'm not just trying to pick guys that have been good), or given up the prospects necessary for Berrios in 2021, or for Castillo in 2022 or given Wacha 3 years last year, or simply given Eovaldi the money when he came back and asked for it deciding that 3 years of Eovaldi was better than one of Duvall, or tried to see if 5/$100m might have made Senga change his mind - who knows.
There were plenty of "not Eflin" and "not deGrom / Rodon" options that were there as recently as last year that some of us on the board opined for and we got none of them.
For what it's worth, if I'd been posting in 2021-22 I would have advocated for someone from Scherzer (Mets), Gausman (Toronto), Ray (Seattle), Stroman (Cubs), Gray (Rangers), Kikiuchi (Toronto). Some of which turned out well (Gausman), moderately (Gray, Stroman, Kikuchi) or poorly (Ray, Scherzer). I'll even allow maybe the FO wouldn't let Bloom spend in 2022 so maybe Gausman and Ray were never possible, but the others should have been.
Though again, I'm really not trying to just pick guys that worked out and saying "go get them"; that approach might have yielded signing Ray, trading for Tyler Mahle, signing Jameson Taillon (whom I'd still take at his exact deal, but I admit he was bad the first half of last year) and drafting Jared Shuster. But - for this one fan at least - I would have looked at the process and said "I agree this could work".
They certainly could have gotten more from the draft than they did, both in MLB now but also at the higher levels of the minors.
They also could have some decent rotation pieces for the "pitching gap" that wouldn't have broken the bank, or at least TRIED (I don't mean Gausman or Rodon) but guys like Chris Bassitt, outbid the Cubs for for Taillon (which I advocated also and he wasn't good last year, so I'm not just trying to pick guys that have been good), or given up the prospects necessary for Berrios in 2021, or for Castillo in 2022 or given Wacha 3 years last year, or simply given Eovaldi the money when he came back and asked for it deciding that 3 years of Eovaldi was better than one of Duvall, or tried to see if 5/$100m might have made Senga change his mind - who knows.
There were plenty of "not Eflin" and "not deGrom / Rodon" options that were there as recently as last year that some of us on the board opined for and we got none of them.
For what it's worth, if I'd been posting in 2021-22 I would have advocated for someone from Scherzer (Mets), Gausman (Toronto), Ray (Seattle), Stroman (Cubs), Gray (Rangers), Kikiuchi (Toronto). Some of which turned out well (Gausman), moderately (Gray, Stroman, Kikuchi) or poorly (Ray, Scherzer). I'll even allow maybe the FO wouldn't let Bloom spend in 2022 so maybe Gausman and Ray were never possible, but the others should have been.
Though again, I'm really not trying to just pick guys that worked out and saying "go get them"; that approach might have yielded signing Ray, trading for Tyler Mahle, signing Jameson Taillon (whom I'd still take at his exact deal, but I admit he was bad the first half of last year) and drafting Jared Shuster. But - for this one fan at least - I would have looked at the process and said "I agree this could work".
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The thing is, though, when only adjusting for ballpark & opponent, the Red Sox were exactly average in pitching last year with a 101 ERA+, and exactly average in hitting with a 100 OPS+. They also had the worst defense in the league by far.
So I think it's an oversimplification & frankly the wrong way to look at it to say that Bloom invested too heavily in hitting at the expense of pitching. I think the better way to look at it is that Bloom invested in the wrong players & got fired as a result.
https://twitter.com/bossportsgordo/status/1732861237912871413?s=46
I keep on singing this over and over again.
I keep on singing this over and over again.
Did Bloom or anyone else ever come out and say that they had an organizational philosophy of hedging their bets on pitching more and emphasizing position players? Something like "obviously you need all of the above but the hit rate of teenage pitchers is further weighed down (compared to teenage hitters) by the greater/more severe injury risk, and if you build a strong foundation of position players you can just buy/acquire almost all the pitching you need at the major league level"?
I'm sure they probably alluded to it here & there, but it's a pretty commonly held belief in the draft, prospect & analytics communities that hitters have a much higher success rate than pitchers, & pitchers are often better attacked in volume rather than a specific large expenditure on one prospect. I'm kind of curious if Breslow will spend a lot more capital on pitching prospects...or whether he'll continue to treat acquiring pitching in a similar manner & just trust their processes, both in selecting the right pitchers & in development, to make those pitchers better.
I don't fault him for investing in hitting over pitching. I fault him for basically not investing in pitching with any type of capital, or more to the point, I think he took it to a ridiculous extreme AND bet on the wrong guys, and personally I find the first one more "damning."
I mean the Dodgers and Friedman are seen as an analytical team, right?
Yet they took Bobby Miller in Rd1, Clayton Beeter in Rd2, Maddux Bruns in Rd1 and Peter Heubeck in Rd 3 (and that is just in 2020 and 2021). They also obviously spent capital to acquire guys via trade (Scherzer), and did spend (short term at the top of the market (Bauer).
I suppose one can say, "they're in a different spot" than the Red Sox, but after the 2021 season, Bloom couldn't have found ONE pitcher he wanted to invest in. Give Eovaldi another extension. Sign ERod then at age 28. Add Jon Gray or Marcus Stroman or someone like that.
He had 4 years in Boston and I literally cannot think of one single transaction Bloom made where he gave up real assets (and I'll allow that he was never allowed to spend big money, which I disagree, but I'll allow it to cede the point) to acquire a rotation piece. He thought he could do it all by waiting on prospects already in the ostensibly barren system (Bello, Houck, Crawford) or giving up nothing and striking gold (and maybe more like striking low grade bronze - Pivetta or whatever one wants to call Whitlock - maybe silver).
The most he gave up for any pitching that I can think of was Benintendi for Winckowski (who hadn't pitched above A+ when acquired). If I'm forgetting something, tell me.
I don't think you can give up nothing at all for starting pitching (big money, trades, mid tier money, high picks, big IFA money) and expect to field an entire rotation of pitchers that can have success in Fenway Park, in the AL East.
I agree with this philosophy but I loved the commitment shown by the Angels in their 2021 draft to drafting all college pitchers and one IMG academy kid.
Boston went for the quantity approach, as they have for a long time. This predates Bloom, it goes back to the advent of the bonus pool caps. The last year before the cap went in Boston went hog wild (the 2014-15 period, when they signed Moncada for $30+ million, they also dumped another $3-$4 million on Anderson Espinoza and the International Man of Mystery, Christopher Acosta). This is why, for example, that the year they signed Brayan Bello he got either the sixth or seventh highest bonus for a pitcher signed by Boston.
Rightly or wrongly the scouting department has decided that there's so much variance in pitching prospects that it's best to throw as many darts as the board as possible in hopes of hitting a few bullseyes.
Bloom's approach seemed to have been to set up a minor league system that provided cheap, cost controlled position players allowing them to spend more freely on free agent pitching. But, given that he started out with weird covid draft (five rounds) docked a high pick, he had three drafts and needed another year for the minor league system to start graduating prospects.
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Well yeah, he drafted a lot of highschoolers and even younger IFAs and they're still in the system having only played professionally since 2021, what do you expect?
How much of any team's performance can be tied to pitchers drafted in 2020 or later??
[Answer: one, the Braves.]
Or does Whitlock count? If you just want to take pot shots at the team's development, you can't credibly do so without going back a few more years.
This is so great. I want to dump on them for their hit rate, but it's way too early to judge. They might end up being geniuses. But so far Costieu is the highest-rated guy in their system from this draft, at #21 in the ranking of Angels prospects. For reference, they have one top-100 player among all of MLB, so it's not a sterling system.
Interesting stuff, thank you.
Do you think (or know) if the decision not to spend draft capital early was solely a Bloom call then?
Groome was a 1st round pick in 2016 and Shaun Anderson in the 3rd; Houck was a 1st round selection in 2017; Casas was 1st in ‘18, but Feltman in the 3rd, they didn’t have a ‘19 first, but with Ryan Zeferjahn (who?) and Song in the 3rd - all following the ’14-‘15 period you referenced.
I don’t believe any SPs have been selected in the first 4 rounds since.
I can totally understand why FSG believed in the idea you referenced last, tied in to the analytical community viewpoint @JM3 mentioned. I do wonder why following the 2020 “whatever that crapshow was”, 2021 and 2022 seasons the front office deviated from that plan and spent in no way “freely” on the FA starting pitching market.
Hopefully Breslow will spend something on starting pitching (big tier money, mid tier money, prospects, or a combination thereof) that is not just “whatever the best is I can get cheaply” and has several layers of plans for to use that on if his plan A and B options fall through, as they often do.
Its almost like a better “take” on Bloom is he often had a really good “Plan A and B” and then got rattled if that failed for whatever reason, and couldn’t recover from it. (That would coincide with the reported shock at losing Bogaerts or basically doing nothing after losing out on Eflin.)
My guess is Breslow does spend real assets on the rotation, but until something actually happens, it’s obviously only a guess.
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Which was my intended point, that he was being blamed for the poor MLB results due to how the prospects were picked, however the players were not actually in the majors to generate those same poor stats. Maybe I'm missing something here, I'm new to these discussions.
For reference purposes, here are the 3 years prior to Bloom with the same over $50k criteria.
CJ Liu $750k (#73) - '19
Gabriel Jackson $350k (#119) - '18
Wikelman Gonzalez $250k (#9) - '18
Nathanael Cruz $200k (#156) - '19
Cesar Ruiz $200k (#190) - '19
Carlos Reyes $180k (released '22) - '18
Francis Hernandez $142k (#121) - '19
Brayan Aquino $100k (released '19) - '17
Luis Talavera $100k (#152) - '18
Claudio Ochoa $75k (released '21) - '18
Luis Perales $75k (#6) - '19
Irving Medina $60k (released '22) - '19
Those were all draft picks, not IFA signings. And Groome is part of the object lesson about prep arms busting out at a high rate. Boston is not the only team to adopt a version of this approach. Focus on churning out averagish position players so that you can trade for/sign pitching. And in the draft and IFA go for quantity over quality (and focus on college arms rather than prep ones). Bloom clearly sold FSG on his ideas/mods to the general approach. Just as Breslow likely convinced FSG that he has the ability to take those players and churn out MLB pitchers (some teams, Cleveland, Minnesota, etc. are pretty good at this).
I'm not sure that Dombrowski had any guiding principle beyond "pay whatever it takes for pitching". Someone around here mentioned that Boston's minor league instruction staff was reduced under DD (in another thread), so it seems that he saw the point of the minor league system as to generate enough helium to trade for more pitching. Rebuilding the talent base and the infrastructure was always going to take time, and in that narrow sense Bloom was up to the task.
I'm not certain that they really did. The payroll was a royal mess when Bloom took over. At the end of 2019 they were slated to spend $61 million on two pitchers that combined to throw zero innings in 2020. And they had a lot of money tied up in reasonable middle class contracts that drove the payroll through the roof because there were a lot of them. Those contracts needed to be churned through while Boston remained competitive and stayed around the luxury tax line. That was a job that Bloom wasn't up to.
On the bright side the disastrous Sale contract is about to go off the books and starting in '25 the minor league system will start spitting out cost controlled players. So if Breslow can turn his pitching lab into a Red Sox assembly line he should be in a good spot.
This is a tad misleading- Price was not slated to skip the year because of covid at the end of 2019, nor was E-Rod expected to miss the year either. Sale, I’ll give you. But, this is the risk of high priced pitching- which makes the YAMAMOTO AT ANY PRICE + ONE MORE GUY potentially problematic. Fingers crossed it works out but tying up a shitload of money in a few pitchers can always go badly.
I think it's kind of fascinating how much Fenway (& the AL East) skews our perception of us being a good hitting & bad pitching team when we were completely average at both last year.
Just curious how it looks in other years...
2023: 101 ERA+, 100 OPS+
2022: 93 ERA+, 102 OPS+
2021: 110 ERA+, 106 OPS+
2020: 87 ERA+, 104 OPS+
2019: 104 ERA+, 106 OPS+
2018: 118 ERA+, 112 OPS+
2017: 123 ERA+, 92 OPS+
2016: 112 ERA+, 112 OPS+
2015: 100 ERA+, 97 OPS+
2014: 100 ERA+, 91 OPS+
2013: 109 ERA+, 116 OPS+
2012: 90 ERA+, 96 OPS+
2011: 103 ERA+, 116 OPS+
2010: 104 ERA+, 109 OPS+
2009: 107 ERA+, 106 OPS+
2008: 116 ERA+, 107 OPS+
2007: 123 ERA+, 107 OPS+
2006: 99 ERA+, 98 OPS+
2005: 96 ERA+, 111 OPS+
2004: 116 ERA+, 110 OPS+
2003: 104 ERA+, 118 OPS+
2002: 122 ERA+, 106 OPS+
2001: 108 ERA+, 101 OPS+
2000: 120 ERA+, 90 OPS+
Sale made $29 million in 2020 and Price $32 million. And Price was trending downwards in 2019 (his career comprised another 120 innings or so spread between 2021 and 22). Those two deals were hamstringing the payroll, which was infuriating because the Sale extension was 100% unnecessary. Y2K is still 25, so he should be OK for a few years.
Ok, but imagine a world where Sale isn’t extended. That payroll slot probably goes to another high priced FA pitcher. Which would be just as risky! I guess I struggle to see how some of the same folks suggesting that price and sale were a disaster are almost demanding that the Sox give $400-$500m to Yamamoto and Montgomery or whomever else. It’s the same thing! If two high priced pitchers get hurt, which isn’t all that unlikely, there’s gonna be problems.
It probably goes to [name redacted to prevent another all out message board brawl].
Price's deal wasn't necessarily a disaster, but is an example of a pitcher whose last good season was when he was 32, and was signed to a 7 year deal to his age 36 season.
Sale's extension was unnecessary because he was actually injured in the stretch run of 2018 and again in 2019, all leading up to his extension. And Dombrowski could have waited.
3 1/2 minutes of Imanaga highlights...
View: https://twitter.com/tylermilliken_/status/1732919700718256523
View: https://twitter.com/tylermilliken_/status/1732919700718256523
@Hank Scorpio - you could be totally right that I overstate "desperation" with recent titles. I fully admit to (if given the choice and it had to be one or the other) I'd far rather be the 2010-2015 Red Sox (meh; craptastic finish; Bobby V, WTF is this; WORLD SERIES TITLE; meh, meh) as opposed to the entirety of the Dodgers run to this point (playoffs every year, no title that at least I consider legitimate) but I could be in the minority there, and I often - admittedly - have a hard time remembering that.
I agree you're right about Bloom still having a job with that outcome, for the record. I still don't think in a truly open bid situation that Steve Cohen will be topped for Yamamoto, but I also agree that at some point the decision will probably come down to something beyond "$1m total value more." I still think the Sox lose across the board there (to NYY or LAD) but if anything but the absolute highest dollar is a consideration, I don't think YY will be a Met or a Red Sox (Red Sock?)
@nighthob - really interesting stuff on the minors and thank you for the insights. Also, I do understand the idea of flameout rates among pitchers and the quantity approach. I just really cannot think of a team that has taken it to the extreme that Bloom did - which at least in my opinion could be another reason he ultimately wasn't up to the task as you put it. The closest I can think of to spending (for all intents and purposes) nothing on starting pitching and trying to maybe trade for it has been Baltimore. Sure they took Rodriguez in the 1st round, and Bradish in the 4th, but that was in 2018 (so pre Bloom). They did spend significant draft capital on pitching last year Baumeister in Rd2 and Lord in Rd3, but outside of those two, I similarly cannot think of a single time they've made a signification allocation of resources to starting pitching over the same time frame (possibly accepting the Flaherty acquisition last year, but that was short term so I don't count it any more than I "count" hitting on Michael Wacha for one year, so to speak).
Of course, re Baltimore, it also doesn't surprise me that while that did fine in the regular season they got demolished in the playoffs. They might start trading some of their ridiculous positional talent for pitching, but assuming they don't want to part with Rodriguez or Bradish (just like we don't want to part with Bello), I think it's going to be pretty tough for them to accomplish. Unless they're willing to lose significantly on value - similar to what I have proposed the Sox do in dealing Bleis, Yorke, and even Mayer if need be.
I'm literally trying to think of another team that has gone so far to the "don't spend at all on long term starting pitching" route besides Baltimore and the Sox, or done so with any degree of success. Not trying to be argumentative, but when you talked about the Sox not being the only team to adopt that approach, I assume you're right, and I just can't think of any outside of the Birds. I was initially thinking the Brewers, but even they used a 2nd on Smith in '21, a 2nd on Misiorowski in '22 and a first on Knoth in '23 (and I don't think anyone is advocating for the Sox to "spend" like the Brewers).
Like you said, the plan was, ostensibly, to draft and develop a pipeline of positional players (which Bloom was excellent at) and then to spend in the FA or trade market to acquire starting pitching (both of which he never did), which is what seems odd to me. Especially following the 2020 reset and the '21 season (to allow that they lost a ton of revenue in 2020). It's the inaction from '21 on that I just cannot square in my head - which again - is (my opinion) the most likely reason Bloom is gone and why I seriously don't think Breslow will make the same mistake.
Breslow might very well bet on the wrong guys (which DDski did with the Sale extension obviously; and to a lesser extent targeting Pomeranz), but I don't think the pattern of not bothering to make any acquisitions of multiple years of control will be repeated. Though to be fair, there I should say "I hope not" since we have no proof to the contrary yet.
@JM3 - what is your take on Imanaga from what you've seen of him (probably much more than I have, which is just the WBC, admittedly). I tend to think of him as a really good bet to be at worst a bottom tier 3 high end 4 but with the upside of a 2 as far as floor and ceiling go. Call it a bit better version of Maeda that could be Ryu (just for a lazy comparison in terms of value of Japanese / Korean leagues that have recently come to the States).
I agree you're right about Bloom still having a job with that outcome, for the record. I still don't think in a truly open bid situation that Steve Cohen will be topped for Yamamoto, but I also agree that at some point the decision will probably come down to something beyond "$1m total value more." I still think the Sox lose across the board there (to NYY or LAD) but if anything but the absolute highest dollar is a consideration, I don't think YY will be a Met or a Red Sox (Red Sock?)
@nighthob - really interesting stuff on the minors and thank you for the insights. Also, I do understand the idea of flameout rates among pitchers and the quantity approach. I just really cannot think of a team that has taken it to the extreme that Bloom did - which at least in my opinion could be another reason he ultimately wasn't up to the task as you put it. The closest I can think of to spending (for all intents and purposes) nothing on starting pitching and trying to maybe trade for it has been Baltimore. Sure they took Rodriguez in the 1st round, and Bradish in the 4th, but that was in 2018 (so pre Bloom). They did spend significant draft capital on pitching last year Baumeister in Rd2 and Lord in Rd3, but outside of those two, I similarly cannot think of a single time they've made a signification allocation of resources to starting pitching over the same time frame (possibly accepting the Flaherty acquisition last year, but that was short term so I don't count it any more than I "count" hitting on Michael Wacha for one year, so to speak).
Of course, re Baltimore, it also doesn't surprise me that while that did fine in the regular season they got demolished in the playoffs. They might start trading some of their ridiculous positional talent for pitching, but assuming they don't want to part with Rodriguez or Bradish (just like we don't want to part with Bello), I think it's going to be pretty tough for them to accomplish. Unless they're willing to lose significantly on value - similar to what I have proposed the Sox do in dealing Bleis, Yorke, and even Mayer if need be.
I'm literally trying to think of another team that has gone so far to the "don't spend at all on long term starting pitching" route besides Baltimore and the Sox, or done so with any degree of success. Not trying to be argumentative, but when you talked about the Sox not being the only team to adopt that approach, I assume you're right, and I just can't think of any outside of the Birds. I was initially thinking the Brewers, but even they used a 2nd on Smith in '21, a 2nd on Misiorowski in '22 and a first on Knoth in '23 (and I don't think anyone is advocating for the Sox to "spend" like the Brewers).
Like you said, the plan was, ostensibly, to draft and develop a pipeline of positional players (which Bloom was excellent at) and then to spend in the FA or trade market to acquire starting pitching (both of which he never did), which is what seems odd to me. Especially following the 2020 reset and the '21 season (to allow that they lost a ton of revenue in 2020). It's the inaction from '21 on that I just cannot square in my head - which again - is (my opinion) the most likely reason Bloom is gone and why I seriously don't think Breslow will make the same mistake.
Breslow might very well bet on the wrong guys (which DDski did with the Sale extension obviously; and to a lesser extent targeting Pomeranz), but I don't think the pattern of not bothering to make any acquisitions of multiple years of control will be repeated. Though to be fair, there I should say "I hope not" since we have no proof to the contrary yet.
@JM3 - what is your take on Imanaga from what you've seen of him (probably much more than I have, which is just the WBC, admittedly). I tend to think of him as a really good bet to be at worst a bottom tier 3 high end 4 but with the upside of a 2 as far as floor and ceiling go. Call it a bit better version of Maeda that could be Ryu (just for a lazy comparison in terms of value of Japanese / Korean leagues that have recently come to the States).
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I don't really have a strong Imanaga opinion. The analytics people love his pitch shape & such. I think his floor is a bit lower than that, but I think generally we're on the same page.
I would be pretty happy if he we got him & someone else comparable & of course if he was our 2nd best acquisition, that would be a productive off season on field, then it's just a matter of the acquisition costs.
Moving this over to here as well..
View: https://twitter.com/jaketodonnell/status/1733162921004282032
Jake brings up a good point here especially wrt to the Devers stuff.. the Sox FO rarely leaks its moves.... you could also use Yoshida as another example. with Yoshida there were very few (If any?) reports of us being linked to him, until it was announced he signed with BOS... I also believe that it was a DR based reporter who first reported about the sox contingent in the DR, and the local reporters here threw water on it at first before admitting they were wrong and that they were in fact in the DR...
As we saw last year Cohen seems to love the spotlight and attention as evident by his constant post on twitter and social media regarding the current state of the team....
Also
View: https://twitter.com/BOSSportsGordo/status/1733164894818574709?
How to get over the top? Sign Imanaga too? Burn a Colonel Sanders mockup to show distaste for the Hanshin Tigers? Point out that Fenway Park is the only American baseball stadium to appear in a Godzilla movie?
... by the DR-based journalists, and questioned by the New England media (by some in a kind inappropriately dismissive way, as I remember) — as SoxHop says.
correct
View: https://twitter.com/ChrisCotillo/status/1584917803026599937?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1584917803026599937%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=
View: https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/1585025042844246016
https://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/red-sox-and-devers-discussing-a-7-year-deal.37842/
This isn’t really true, in 2020 half their drafted/signed players were pitchers (2/4). In 2021 it was 9/18 signed players. In 2022 it was 12/18 signed players. In 2023 it was 11/19 players. So overall 34 of 59 of the guys drafted and signed were pitchers (58%). That’s not “extreme ignoring of pitching”. That’s throwing as many darts against the board as they can in hopes of uncovering some gems. Which they have, even if some of those guys are relievers (Guerrero, possibly Troye).
They didn’t spend high picks on pitchers because pitchers have a huge bust rate. So high picks have been used on positional players, because Boston’s system was so dry that they couldn’t afford to waste 1st and 2nd round picks. But they literally used a majority of their picks/signings on pitchers.
On the IFA front they signed 21 pitchers this past period and 16 in 2022. In 2021 it was 15 (one of the pitchers had his signing voided), and another 16 in 2020. So Bloom signed a lot of pitchers. And some of them are progressing rapidly through the system (Guerrero has already reached AAA, Perales high A, etc.)
Or there’s no leaks coming out of Fenway because there’s not much to leak. That’s what the Bloom years were. We were all waiting for another shoe to drop when a minor move was made but it turned out the big move never really came. The Devers move was out of pure necessity when Bogaerts left. I’m glad it happened, but when was the last time a major move was made by this team that made fans jump out of their collective seats with excitement? David Price?
Its clearly incorrect to say they havent taken pitchers, but its very accurate to say they havent invested much. Its almost all volume after the top 5 rounds are down. The highest pitcher drafted under Bloom was Rogers at #99. He only spent $300k+ on three IFA pitchers during the same time period (and never more than $500k). While there is clearly analytically better outcomes to bats, other FOs know this as well and I dont think there are other teams out there zagging that hard on the all bat strategy.
It's a valid point that he didn't spend much there and its worth wondering if he didn't go too hard in on the strategy.
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There’s no way to actually know as pitching takes longer to develop and there’s really only 2020 and 2021 to look at. Three of their 2021 pitching draftees have reached the high minors. So the approach at the developmental level worked. But by nature building through development takes time which Boston just hasn’t had in part due to weird covid year.
Agreed, theres no real conclusion that the strategy worked or didnt work; only that it is an outlier (at least as to the extent Bloom took it) of other large market franchises who also heavily rely on analytics so assuredly know that pitching tends to bring lower returns in the draft and IFA.
Exactly the point I'm trying to make. Thank you for saying it succinctly because I'm admittedly a wordy individual.
@nighthob - I truly appreciate you taking the time to explain the strategy. I'm not a fan of taking it to such an extreme, especially in the draft, but I can conceptualize why they did it, relative to prospects, even though I don't agree.
What I really can't figure is why that was always the approach at the MLB rotation level. Not one significant expenditure of capital (neither top of the market FA deals; nor "middle class" deals, as you put it; no significant trades for it). It just makes no sense to me that an organization that wins 4 titles in 15 seasons with Pedro and Schilling; Beckett and Schilling; Lester and Lackey; Price and Sale and then they spend 5 years not investing outside of short term, bottom of the market moves.
I can "understand" the reset going into 2020 (when they thought there would be a full season) but once you got beyond that, to still do nothing is baffling.
There is no reason to rehash the results because my point isn't that the results sucked. It's that I think the thought process sucked and the results, predictably, sucked. I hope Breslow doesn't believe the same thing or act in the same way (and I don't think he will) but if he follows the same process, I think the results will be quite bad.
Someone recently posed a question of if we think the process is bad or the guys picked were bad, and to be clear, think that kind of process is the problem. It might "hit" in a season and you win a round or something, but nothing more than 2021 or every Red Sox team from 1988-1997 (and even then, you need two top starters, even when one quite possibly has the literal right arm of God or whatever deity one believes in, or is a robot / alien if one doesn't believe in any deity.)
Over lets say a decade, I think that will lead to something like 5 really bad seasons, 2 meh ones, 3 that make the playoffs and might occasionally win a round or two but never hangs up a banner.
Though now I'll try not to continually clog up the board with my diatribes and wait until a move is made and see where it fits in this continuum then opine.
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Nohei Ohtani. Plane don't lie.
[I think it's probably a thing & this is just people covering themselves buuuut...]
View: https://twitter.com/bnicholsonsmith/status/1733200651830661127?s=20
https://dodgersnation.com/shohei-ohtani-to-sign-with-toronto-blue-jays-over-los-angeles-dodgers-sources/2023/12/08/
[I think it's probably a thing & this is just people covering themselves buuuut...]
View: https://twitter.com/bnicholsonsmith/status/1733200651830661127?s=20
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Imagine if Eflin had signed with the Sox? Bloom would have signed a top starter, reliever, and hitter as free agents last off-season. It is one of those butterfly effect thought exercises, and ultimately does provide some insight into Bloom's strength in identifying talent and his struggles in finalizing a deal.