What does the Red Sox 40-Man Roster look like in 2024?

[jon abbey]

Even if it's a player with a .01% shot of being a contributor to the ML team, it's better than 0%.

I mean, they also take up a minor league roster spot, which are more limited now, so it's more complicated than that. Plus you are giving up their rights, it's not generally easy to keep a rule 5 guy around all season as we saw with Noah Song last year.

 

[JM3]

The danger with that approach though is that you genuinely cut ties. NY had Nestor Cortes taken in the rule 5 by BAL at one point but he wasn't ready and was offered back to them. If they had traded him as JM3 suggests, then he never comes back to NY.

I think, in most cases, you should either bet on your guys & put them on your 40, or bet against them & trade them before they potentially expire for nothing.

The Cortes example kind of rings hollow since all they got for getting him back was $28k of international pool money when they traded him to the Mariners a year later. & then they signed him back as a Minor League free agent after the Mariners let him walk. He was also R5'd in 2018 & didn't become useful until 2021. They proved that you can trade away a guy & then bring him back later more than they proved that they did better by not trading him.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

What truly is the potential of losing a player for nothing, though? The odds of a team selecting Drohan and him sticking in the majors all season is pretty small, no? Now weigh that against the potential trade return .

 

[JM3]

What truly is the potential of losing a player for nothing, though? The odds of a team selecting Drohan and him sticking in the majors all season is pretty small, no? Now weigh that against the potential trade return .

Drohan is a better more polished pitcher than Ward was, with a higher upside. SoxProspects lists Ward's upside as a back of the rotation starter if he continues to improve (compared to Drohan who they had as mid rotation or higher).

Summation: Potential major league swingman type. Ceiling of a back-end starter if his development continues on an upward trajectory.

https://soxprospects.com/players/ward-thaddeus.htm

Ward pitched 35 innings all season for the Nationals, poorly, & they kept him around despite the low ceiling, meh stuff thing. Ward had pitched 59.1 innings in the last 3 years combined, including 33.1 in AA. It's not hard to see why a team who is not trying to win this year would be perfectly comfortable hanging on to a Drohan (who has 56 better innings over 2 seasons at Portland than Ward had), for the chance to see if they can get him back to a previous level of really good pitching that he has already shown.

Could they be right & Drohan sucks now for whatever reason & no one will want to add him & he also had no trade value for the same reason? Sure. Could the A's take Drohan with the 1st pick & have him be a good part of their rotation for like 4 years before they trade his last year of control to someone else? Also, yes. I just don't think it's smart asset management. Could it all work out? Of course, but the way they have managed the 40-man roster has seemed suboptimal the last couple years.

Other teams just aren't leaving this type of player lying around. So why are we? Do we think we're managing our 40-man roster better than those other teams & they're just behind the curve?

 

[pjheff]

Could they be right & Drohan sucks now for whatever reason & no one will want to add him & he also had no trade value for the same reason? Sure. Could the A's take Drohan with the 1st pick & have him be a good part of their rotation for like 4 years before they trade his last year of control to someone else? Also, yes. I just don't think it's smart asset management. Could it all work out? Of course, but the way they have managed the 40-man roster has seemed suboptimal the last couple years.

Wasn’t there just a report in which Breslow said that his program had been successful in helping pitchers add velocity and change the shapes of their breaking stuff but not in developing plus plus command? Maybe he thinks that Drohan has issues that he can’t fix compared to others but inherited him too late in the offseason to do much else but expose him.

 

[jon abbey]

Also it needs to be noted that it was pretty impossible to pitch well in the International League last year, NY had multiple guys who pitched better in MLB than they did in AAA.

Jhony Brito: 5.45 ERA in 36.1 innings in AAA, 4.28 ERA in 90.1 innings in MLB
Randy Vasquez: 4.59 ERA in 80.1 innings in AAA, 2.87 ERA in 37.2 innings in MLB

 

[JM3]

Wasn’t there just a report in which Breslow said that his program had been successful in helping pitchers add velocity and change the shapes of their breaking stuff but not in developing plus plus command? Maybe he thinks that Drohan has issues that he can’t fix compared to others but inherited him too late in the offseason to do much else but expose him.

Drohan has not really been a big control problem guy the past couple seasons, though. In '22 he walked he walked 3.5 per 9 across A+ & AA (while striking out 10.9 per 9), & in Portland this year he was walking 2.4 per 9. Yes, everything went wrong in Worcester, which included bumping the walk rate to 6.4 per 9. But we don't have to look back very far to a guy with adequate control.

Yes, Breslow took over late in the process...which is why this is probably something driven by the incumbents who may or may not be decent at managing a 40-man roster.

Also it needs to be noted that it was pretty impossible to pitch well in the International League last year, NY had multiple guys who pitched better in MLB than they did in AAA.

Jhony Brito: 5.45 ERA in 36.1 innings in AAA, 4.28 ERA in 90.1 innings in MLB
Randy Vasquez: 4.59 ERA in 80.1 innings in AAA, 2.87 ERA in 37.2 innings in MLB

Red Sox have a good example of that, too...

Chris Murphy: 6.32 ERA in 52.2 innings in AAA, 4.91 ERA in 47.2 innings in MLB

Despite all of Drohan's struggles, he had a 6.47 ERA in AAA. Murphy walked 5.3 per 9 in AAA & 3.2 per 9 in MLB.

 

[JM3]

Non-tender deadline is tomorrow.

MassLive suggests that Urias is a likely non-tender, McGuire is a possible but less likely non-tender possibility, & that Verdugo, Pivetta & Schreiber will all be offered arbitration.

The guess here is that Urías is either non-tendered or the Red Sox try to sign him to a preemptive deal to avoid arbitration at a lower cost before the Friday deadline.

https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2023/11/red-sox-roster-decisions-cutting-trade-deadline-addition-coming-friday.html

My ideal outcome is they reach an agreement with Urias on a lower #... but I don't necessarily think there are much better free agent options out there & those would likely cost significantly more money.

View: https://twitter.com/BostonStrong_34/status/1724982801496236163

Fangraphs has Urias's '21 & '22 seasons valued at $35.2m combined. At a projected $4.7m, there's still a lot of upside potential there. Of course, if they have a specific target at 2B you're expecting to get & have a framework in place, you're a lot more comfortable letting him walk. But I wouldn't feel great if we let him go to go be the highest bidder on Whit Merrifield, who is more than 9 years older & who has not been particularly good for a couple years.

 

[Fishy1]

Non-tender deadline is tomorrow.

MassLive suggests that Urias is a likely non-tender, McGuire is a possible but less likely non-tender possibility, & that Verdugo, Pivetta & Schreiber will all be offered arbitration.



https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2023/11/red-sox-roster-decisions-cutting-trade-deadline-addition-coming-friday.html

My ideal outcome is they reach an agreement with Urias on a lower #... but I don't necessarily think there are much better free agent options out there & those would likely cost significantly more money.

View: https://twitter.com/BostonStrong_34/status/1724982801496236163

Fangraphs has Urias's '21 & '22 seasons valued at $35.2m combined. At a projected $4.7m, there's still a lot of upside potential there. Of course, if they have a specific target at 2B you're expecting to get & have a framework in place, you're a lot more comfortable letting him walk. But I wouldn't feel great if we let him go to go be the highest bidder on Whit Merrifield, who is more than 9 years older & who has not been particularly good for a couple years.

Yeah, the certainty around him being nontendered is strange to me. Once he recovered from his hamstring injury he was roughly league-average (a wrc+ of 98 with the Sox) and has been better than that in the past. He's got 20 home run pop and an excellent eye at the plate. Give me that any day. He's been about an average defensive second baseman for his career. Why wouldn't we pay that guy 5 million or so?

 

[chawson]

Yeah, the certainty around him being nontendered is strange to me. Once he recovered from his hamstring injury he was roughly league-average (a wrc+ of 98 with the Sox) and has been better than that in the past. He's got 20 home run pop and an excellent eye at the plate. Give me that any day. He's been about an average defensive second baseman for his career. Why wouldn't we pay that guy 5 million or so?

This is where I’m at too. Seems like a situation where he’s got too much Bloom residue for a lot of the fan base, and some reporters too. Everyone was angry we did “nothing” at the deadline and pretending Urias doesn’t exist helps substantiate that.

 

[JM3]

Here's the Fangraphs writeup of our R5 additions:

More interesting than what Boston did Tuesday is what they didn’t do. They arguably had the biggest roster crunch in baseball, with nearly a dozen potential additions and eight or so current 40-man occupants who I’d consider on the roster bubble. Young righties Luis Perales (whose fastball has monstrous vertical carry) and Wikelman Gonzalez (plus secondary stuff) are both young and raw enough to expect they’ll spend their first year on the 40-man entirely in the minors. Prospects Grant Gambrell, Ryan Fernandez, Angel Bastardo, Chih-Jung Liu, Shane Drohan, Juan Daniel Encarnacion, Eddinson Paulino, and Allan Castro all had interesting cases to be added versus not. The relief-only guys (Gambrell, Fernandez) are lower-impact types who were probably safe to leave unprotected, Drohan’s rough second half hurt his chances of being rostered, and most of the rest of the candidates are extremely young and unlikely to stick on someone else’s active roster next spring. Especially as more and more teams tend to err on the side of not adding players this time of year, more and more players fill the potential Rule 5 Draft pool and the chance any one of your team’s guys gets popped in the draft drops through the sheer volume of alternatives. Liu (sitting 95 mph with a plus breaking ball and average split as a starter) could be vulnerable in the Rule 5, especially if teams think his stuff will tick up in relief.

Along with other teams.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/40-man-roster-deadline-reaction-and-analysis-american-league/

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

I think it’s a situation where they simply place his market value at less than what he will be awarded in arbitration.

 

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

What truly is the potential of losing a player for nothing, though? The odds of a team selecting Drohan and him sticking in the majors all season is pretty small, no? Now weigh that against the potential trade return .

Yes. There is not a high probability that Drohan will pitch well enough to stay in the majors all year*. But say the Nats (to use a team) want to pick him and are willing to keep him on their roster all year. We know that teams rarely surprise other teams and Breslow hears that the Nats want Drohan. Wouldn't it be beneficial for Breslow to call Washington and say, "Hey you can have Drohan but I want Player X from your A ball team"? That way the Nats can farm Drohan out and the Sox, who were going to lose Drohan anyway, can get someone in return for him.

* Which is I'm sure what the Yanks thought about Whitlock in 2020. Or what the Phillies thought when the Blue Jays selected George Bell, or what the Dodgers thought when the Pirates plucked Roberto Clemente and so on.

In other words, if you don't value Drohan enough to protect him on the 40-man roster and someone else values him, I think that it's just due diligence to see what you could get for him. If you don't come to an agreement, that's fine, good luck to the Nats and Drohan. It certainly won't break the Red Sox farm system, but you could find a nice lottery ticket too.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

I guess but every team has guys like Drohan that they are trying to keep without adding to the 40 man. How many trades do we see this time of year of players like that? There’s probably a reason.

 

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

I guess but every team has guys like Drohan that they are trying to keep without adding to the 40 man. How many trades do we see this time of year of players like that? There’s probably a reason.

That doesn't mean you shouldn't try to do it. When MLB players were being sent to Japan, they would normally go through waivers and go unclaimed by the 29 other teams as part of a gentleman's agreement. In 2003 Theo Epstein claimed Kevin Millar and he did well for us.

The thing is, one of the black marks Dombrowski gets around here is that he lost prospects for "nothing" or included more prospects than he needed to to get the deal done which dried up the farm system. At least you could argue that DD got what he wanted for the extra players. The Rule 5 Draft goes a step further in that you lose a prospect (fringe at best) for nothing. Best case scenario, you get a prospect back who might have his confidence shattered because he got lit up in the Majors and now realizes that he has a long way to go. Worst case scenario, you lose a dude for nothing.

All I'm saying is that try to get something for him. I don't see what the downside is here.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

That doesn't mean you shouldn't try to do it. When MLB players were being sent to Japan, they would normally go through waivers and go unclaimed by the 29 other teams as part of a gentleman's agreement. In 2003 Theo Epstein claimed Kevin Millar and he did well for us.

The thing is, one of the black marks Dombrowski gets around here is that he lost prospects for "nothing" or included more prospects than he needed to to get the deal done which dried up the farm system. At least you could argue that DD got what he wanted for the extra players. The Rule 5 Draft goes a step further in that you lose a prospect (fringe at best) for nothing. Best case scenario, you get a prospect back who might have his confidence shattered because he got lit up in the Majors and now realizes that he has a long way to go. Worst case scenario, you lose a dude for nothing.

All I'm saying is that try to get something for him. I don't see what the downside is here.

So they should be actively trying to trade every rule 5 eligible player they chose not to protect, even if the odds of losing a player is super tiny? Again, I think there’s a balance here- if there are trades that make sense to be made, I’d imagine they’d be being made, but since it seem to rarely happen….i dunno. Did the Nats want Thad Ward so bad that they’d have been willing to give up something for him, or would they have just taken someone else / similar had he not been available? Hard to know. But there are always gonna be interesting guys available, that’s the whole point.

 

[moondog80]

It’s not like we are aware of the logic behind trying to trade Drohan and the Red Sox are not. My assumption is that either they tried or, perhaps more likely, it’s understood that fringe 40 guys have virtually no trade value this time of year, when everyone is facing the same roster crunch. I mean, what’s the other explanation? That they didn’t do it because they are lazy? Or out of extreme hubris?

 

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

So they should be actively trying to trade every rule 5 eligible player they chose not to protect, even if the odds of losing a player is super tiny? Again, I think there’s a balance here- if there are trades that make sense to be made, I’d imagine they’d be being made, but since it seem to rarely happen….i dunno. Did the Nats want Thad Ward so bad that they’d have been willing to give up something for him, or would they have just taken someone else / similar had he not been available? Hard to know. But there are always gonna be interesting guys available, that’s the whole point.

Re: the bolded, I didn't say that. Like at all. My point was if there is a team that is hot and heavy for one of your unprotected players, it might not be a bad idea to see if you could work out a deal. That's it. Hard stop. If it doesn't work out, it doesn't work out.

Getting something for a player is better than getting nothing for a player, can we agree on that?

Unless you think it's okay to give away players for nothing. That's certainly okay to think that, but we'll just have to agree to disagree on that.

EDIT: Basically what I'm saying is to treat the Rule 5 Draft like a yard sale. You put all your junky prospects on the lawn to see if anyone wants them, if someone will give a buck for a trash bag of baby clothes (your kids are in college now), you take it. If they don't, well that bag is going to be on the side of the curb tomorrow and if a team really doesn't want to spend that dollar, they can grab it for free. At the end of the day, not getting that dollar (probably) won't preclude you for paying your mortgage. But add it to a couple of other dollars and maybe you can buy a pizza. Everyone likes pizza.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Re: the bolded, I didn't say that. Like at all. My point was if there is a team that is hot and heavy for one of your unprotected players, it might not be a bad idea to see if you could work out a deal. That's it. Hard stop. If it doesn't work out, it doesn't work out.

Getting something for a player is better than getting nothing for a player, can we agree on that?

Unless you think it's okay to give away players for nothing. That's certainly okay to think that, but we'll just have to agree to disagree on that.

Getting something for a player is likely better than getting nothing, but giving a player away for little return, a player who isn’t likely to be claimed / kept all year, is a different calculus, IMO. All comes down to what is being offered, if anything.

 

[YTF]

This is where I’m at too. Seems like a situation where he’s got too much Bloom residue for a lot of the fan base, and some reporters too. Everyone was angry we did “nothing” at the deadline and pretending Urias doesn’t exist helps substantiate that.

This seems really strange to me. Has anyone even hinted at this?

 

[JM3]

I guess but every team has guys like Drohan that they are trying to keep without adding to the 40 man. How many trades do we see this time of year of players like that? There’s probably a reason.

The primary example this year was this trade...

Brewers get Oliver Dunn
Phillies get Hendry Mendez & Robert Moore

Phillies trade R5 eligible AA 2B Oliver Dunn. Dunn is 26 & raked this year in AA with a 148 wRC+. Walks a lot (16.2%), strikes out a lot (27.5%), 21 homers, 16 steals. He also did well in the AFL. Mendez & Moore were both in High-A & neither did amazing, but Mendez only turned 20 a few days ago & Moore was 21, & as such are much more age appropriate level. Mendez was an IFA & also played in the AFL this season. Moore was a '22 6th round pick. Both are 2 years away from being R5 eligible.

https://www.brewcrewball.com/2023/11/14/23960986/brewers-acquire-oliver-dunn-from-phillies

But yeah, not a lot of movement on that front overall.

 

[jon abbey]

The primary example this year was this trade...

Brewers get Oliver Dunn
Phillies get Hendry Mendez & Robert Moore

Phillies trade R5 eligible AA 2B Oliver Dunn. Dunn is 26 & raked this year in AA with a 148 wRC+. Walks a lot (16.2%), strikes out a lot (27.5%), 21 homers, 16 steals. He also did well in the AFL. Mendez & Moore were both in High-A & neither did amazing, but Mendez only turned 20 a few days ago & Moore was 21, & as such are much more age appropriate level. Mendez was an IFA & also played in the AFL this season. Moore was a '22 6th round pick. Both are 2 years away from being R5 eligible.

https://www.brewcrewball.com/2023/11/14/23960986/brewers-acquire-oliver-dunn-from-phillies

But yeah, not a lot of movement on that front overall.

Ironically PHI got Dunn from NYY in the minor league rule 5 draft last year, which means not only didn’t NY protect him on the 40 man, he also wasn’t on the additional 38 man AAA roster they chose.

Anyway as I think JM3 said, almost none of this matters much. I definitely think there’s value to retaining a player’s rights by not trading them beforehand as you may get them back, like Noah Song last year.

There’s also value in not adding someone to the 40 man and then having them not get picked, as then you get an additional year to look at them without having them clog your 40 man, because once they’re added, then they can’t be removed and retained without clearing waivers from the other 29 teams.

 

[JM3]

Anyway as I think JM3 said, almost none of this matters much. I definitely think there’s value to retaining a player’s rights by not trading them beforehand as you may get them back, like Noah Song last year.

There’s also value in not adding someone to the 40 man and then having them not get picked, as then you get an additional year to look at them without having them clog your 40 man, because once they’re added, then they can’t be removed and retained without clearing waivers from the other 29 teams.

I'm not sure that I said that. It definitely doesn't matter nearly as much as many other things that will happen over the course of a year, & it's a mostly academic conversation, especially prior to the actual results of the R5 draft.

But I wouldn't be surprised if for the 2nd straight year we had multiple pitching prospects taken in the R5 draft, & I wouldn't be surprised if we lost 2 or more guys who could be useful, cost-controlled players as a result of those players sticking with their new teams all season...despite having a universally maligned pitching prospect pipeline & lots of non-useful players on our 40-man roster...which seems like an odd result & use of resources.

& not protecting Noah Song was a no-brainer based on his military service status & not having pitched in years. Same with not protecting AJ Politi because he's a JAG reliever. Similarly, I won't be upset if a team takes Justin Hagenman or Politi himself again. & if a team drafts Noah Song again? Smh.

However, guys like Fernandez & Penrod who have higher leverage arms & could be useful bullpen pieces for the Red Sox, or another team, as soon as this year, & AAA starters with fairly interesting profiles like Drohan & Gambrell, are more concerning to me, & I'm not really sure what risk we're protecting against by leaving them all exposed.

These are the players on our 40-man roster who I would trade for Drohan in rough order:

Open Slot
Logan Gillaspie (already DFA'd & claimed)
Wyatt Mills (out for the year with TJ)
David Hamilton
Joe Jacques
Bobby Dalbec
Brandon Walter
Zack Weiss
Mauricio Llovera
Zack Kelly

& probably 1 of Urias, Valdez or Reyes

In terms of off season needs, we need to replace Turner & Duvall & add 2 starters. Anyone else who gets added beyond that would be bumping someone else who's not even on this list for the most part.

So I disagree with the way they're building out their 40-man & hope it improves going forward. But of course I could always be wrong. That's the beauty of having mostly uninformed opinions.

 

[LoLsapien]

To be captain obvious here, the flip side of not protecting Drohan is that perhaps there are better players that will be available in the Rule5 that we'd prefer to roster. I'm looking forward to learning whether there are more Whitlock's out there for the Sox to claim.

 

[JM3]

The guys who fall under the "lets not add them too soon" are much more the Eddinson Paulino (21), Allan Castro (20), Felix Cepeda (23) types who have all done quite well in A+, but are still probably 2+ years from potentially being in MLB & aren't sure things to ever make it, despite having a variety of intriguing skills. Angel Bastardo (21) falls into that category, too, even though he made it to AA this season. It's the same logic that led to them not protecting Wikelman Gonzalez last year when he was almost drafted & that makes a lot of sense to me not to tie up a 40 man spot for multiple years for all but the very tippy-top level of prospects.

If they view Drohan (24), Fernandez (25), Penrod (26) & Gambrell (25) as not talented enough to ever make an impact on the MLB club, then it's fine, but none of them are examples of guys that you would be concerned about tying up a spot for a long time.

To be captain obvious here, the flip side of not protecting Drohan is that perhaps there are better players that will be available in the Rule5 that we'd prefer to roster. I'm looking forward to learning whether there are more Whitlock's out there for the Sox to claim.

They aren't really related issues as Drohan can start the year in AAA & if they pick up someone in the R5, they would have to be on the MLB roster all season. & we've already gotten rid of Logan Gillaspie, putting our 40-man at 38 spots, & we can only pick up 1 guy in the R5. But we shall see.

The best unprotected Cubs pitching prospect is Kohl Franklin, who was ranked as their #28 prospect (MLB Pipeline), who is 24 & had a 6 ERA in AA last year.

Our top 30 unprotected players (Pipeline rankings):
#16 Angel Bastardo
#18 Shane Drohan
#21 Eddinson Paulino
#30 Allan Castro

& I'll throw in the unprotected people who made the SP Top 60 (my rankings in parens after)
#13 Shane Drohan (#22)
#17 Allan Castro (#18)
#20 Eddinson Paulino (#17)
#30 Angel Bastardo (#26)
#31 Ryan Fernandez (#42)
#35 Stephen Scott (#41)
#38 Grant Gambrell (#35)
#45 Matthew Lugo (#73)
#49 Zach Penrod (#40)
#50 Brock Bell (#84)
#52 Nick Sogard (#94)
#53 Ryan Zeferjahn (#75)
#54 Felix Cepeda (#53)
#55 Reidis Sena (#101)
#60 Noah Song (#46)

https://soxprospects.com/

But yeah, I've written enough words on the subject to last a few lifetimes. Will hope for the best, & even if the worst happens, it's not a big deal compared to the big decisions Breslow has coming going forward.

 

[chrisfont9]

To be captain obvious here, the flip side of not protecting Drohan is that perhaps there are better players that will be available in the Rule5 that we'd prefer to roster. I'm looking forward to learning whether there are more Whitlock's out there for the Sox to claim.

The open spot hints at this pretty loudly. Our GM (or PBO or whatever) just came from the Cubs. I wonder if he already knows a guy he likes.

 

[jon abbey]

There are 2 open spots now, they’re at 38.

 

[LoLsapien]

Yeah with Breslow (and hopefully Bailey?) coming in with pitching expertise in two different orgs, hopefully they've got some insight so we can pluck a live arm to plug into the 40!

Interesting that JM3 shows the best unprotected arm being the cubs 28th best prospect, versus Drohan as our 24th. But hopefully (again, captain obvious here) there's some traits or advanced underlying stats that Breslow has or had access to that perhaps gives him a different view of the unprotected talent in that system.

Looking forward to hearing about all the claims, whenever that process happens.

 

[JM3]

Yeah with Breslow (and hopefully Bailey?) coming in with pitching expertise in two different orgs, hopefully they've got some insight so we can pluck a live arm to plug into the 40!

Interesting that JM3 shows the best unprotected arm being the cubs 28th best prospect, versus Drohan as our 24th. But hopefully (again, captain obvious here) there's some traits or advanced underlying stats that Breslow has or had access to that perhaps gives him a different view of the unprotected talent in that system.

Looking forward to hearing about all the claims, whenever that process happens.

The Rule 5 draft is on December 6th in Nashville at the Winter Meetings.

Other than Garrett Whitlock, the Red Sox haven't exactly picked up a lot of useful players in the R5.

https://www.soxprospects.com/dhrule5.htm

As far as I can tell, the only Red Sox R5 acquisitions besides Whitlock with a positive fWAR with the Red Sox since 2003 are Joe Jacques who put up 0.1 fWAR this year after being drafted in the Minor League portion & Lenny Dinardo put up 0.1 fWAR in 3 seasons after being drafted in the 2003 R5 draft.

 

[LoLsapien]

As the man with the prospect stats in his hands, what's the MLB R5 hit rate overall?

 

[JM3]

As the man with the prospect stats in his hands, what's the MLB R5 hit rate overall?

Define hit rate? Stays with their new team & has a positive fWAR? That's definitely not information I have off hand. But pretty low.

 

[LoLsapien]

Got it. So maybe the whole R5 process is less important than I thought. Still fun to dream on. Also interesting to see that there are minor league R5 drafts, I'll have to look more into what that's all about. Thanks for all this JM3!

 

[JM3]

Got it. So maybe the whole R5 process is less important than I thought. Still fun to dream on. Also interesting to see that there are minor league R5 drafts, I'll have to look more into what that's all about. Thanks for all this JM3!

It's important on the margins & it makes people add their most interesting prospects to the 40 man roster earlier than they would otherwise like in a lot of cases. For example, Luis Perales is not going to contribute to the Red Sox this year, but they couldn't risk another team picking him up, so they added him. If teams didn't add their most interesting prospects, the draft itself would be more interesting.

Some of the players who were drafted in the Rule 5 over the years include Roberto Clemente, Johan Santana, Dan Uggla, Joakim Soria, Josh Hamilton, Jose Bautista, former Red Sox Ryan Pressly...& even Hack Wilson & Christy Mathewson.

The Minor League Rule 5 stuff is a bit weird, but teams can submit an additional list of 38 names of guys who are eligible for the R5 draft, & anyone eligible who is not covered under those 78 total names can be drafted by another team, who can put that player at any level they want.

Last year the Red Sox didn't use the Major League Rule 5, but in the MiLB portion drafted Jacques from the Pirates & Ryan Miller, who pitched in Portland this season from the Yankees.

 

[nvalvo]

As the man with the prospect stats in his hands, what's the MLB R5 hit rate overall?

WIkipedia of all places has a decent list of everyone taken in the last 25 or so drafts. There are some notable players in the mix (Josh Hamilton, R.A. Dickey, Shane Victorino...), but not that many. It's a fun opportunity to remember some guys.

 

[JM3]

Here's Jen McCaffrey's take on Urias as it relates to today's deadline:

Acquired at the trade deadline from Milwaukee in exchange for minor league right-hander Bradly Blalock, Urías hit .225 with a .698 OPS in 109 plate appearances. While chief baseball officer Craig Breslow mentioned Urías as one of four options the team has at second base ahead of 2024, including Enmanuel Valdez, Pablo Reyes and David Hamilton, the club might view his $4.7 million projected salary as better spent elsewhere. However, the free-agent market for second basemen is thin with Whit Merrfield among the best candidates. The Red Sox could try upgrading second base via trade or perhaps they non-tender Urías but then re-sign him on a cheaper deal.

The article also touches on Pivetta, Verdugo, McGuire & Schreiber, who she all expects will be tendered. Then there's a little bit on the pre-arb guys.

Pre-arbitration players
The Red Sox also have a handful of pre-arbitration players they could part with including right-handers Zack Weiss, Mauricio Llovera and Wyatt Mills as another way to make room on the roster.

https://theathletic.com/5069648/2023/11/17/red-sox-roster-decisions-non-tender/

 

[JM3]

No more Wyatt Mills, so the 40 is at 37.

View: https://twitter.com/ChrisCotillo/status/1725687058121781602

 

[JM3]

Here's a bit of a breakdown on some of the guys who were nontendered who might be of interest to Breslow, including a former Cubs LHP.

https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2023/11/red-sox-free-agency-might-craig-breslow-consider-lefty-cubs-non-tendered.html

Brandon Hughes, LHP: Breslow is familiar with Hughes from their time together with the Cubs. Chicago non-tendered the 27-year-old left-handed reliever after he spent much of the 2023 season on the 60-day IL with left knee inflammation. Hughes was effective when healthy in ‘22, posting a 3.12 ERA, .200 batting average against and 28.5% strikeout percentage.

 

[JM3]

No more Wyatt Mills, so the 40 is at 37.

View: https://twitter.com/ChrisCotillo/status/1725687058121781602

More Wyatt Mills, just not on the 40, & we are still at 37.

11/19/23 Boston Red Sox signed free agent RHP Wyatt Mills to a minor league contract.

11/26/23 RHP Wyatt Mills assigned to Worcester Red Sox.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

Gone 3 days then resurrected

 

[Fishy1]

Mills is a guy who posted astronomical K/BB ratios in the minors all the way up through AAA and then got shelled in his first couple exposures to the big leagues. But relievers have sorted things out later than he has, and with worse stuff. Good depth move keeping him around.

 

[JM3]

Yeah, it's a 2-year deal, which is ideal considering the whole "probably not pitching in '24" thing.

View: https://twitter.com/ChrisCotillo/status/1728896473130287580

 

[JM3]

Not really sure where to put this & don't want to start a new thread, but Fangraphs basically says the Red Sox project to be mid next year.

The Red Sox look like an 80–86 win team or so. That kind of team can surprise, and with the coins flipping a bit different last year, they could have made a real wild card run. The Orioles, Blue Jays, and Rays are a clear tier above them, though, and when all is said and done by winter’s end, I think the Yankees may be as well. But that last question is a tale for another ZiPS entry.

...which is unsurprising.

OPS+ projections...

Devers 131
Casas 127
Yoshida 119
Verdugo 115
Turner 114
Refsnyder 107
Duvall 107
Alvarez 104
Valdez 103
Story 102
Abreu 101
Duran 98
C Note 94
Reyes 94
Wong 91
McGuire 82

In terms of prospects...

Hickey 93
Teel 89
Mayer 89
Blaze 89
Meidroth 86
Roman 83
Yorke 74

ERA projections for startable guys...

Whitlock 3.73
Bello 4.28
Sale 4.30
Winckowski 4.36
Crawford 4.49
Pivetta 4.55
Houck 4.62
Walter 4.72
Paxton 4.78
Murphy 5.04

& prospects...

Coffey 4.61
Dobbins 4.79
Santos 4.93
BVB 4.94
Gambrell 5.12
Wikelman 5.16
Bastardo 5.19
Drohan 5.20

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-zips-projections-boston-red-sox/

 

[simplicio]

Eddy Alvarez making the majors and hitting above average? I think the bot's broken.

 

[chawson]

Not really sure where to put this & don't want to start a new thread, but Fangraphs basically says the Red Sox project to be mid next year.



...which is unsurprising.

OPS+ projections...

Devers 131
Casas 127
Yoshida 119
Verdugo 115
Turner 114
Refsnyder 107
Duvall 107
Alvarez 104
Valdez 103
Story 102
Abreu 101
Duran 98
C Note 94
Reyes 94
Wong 91
McGuire 82

In terms of prospects...

Hickey 93
Teel 89
Mayer 89
Blaze 89
Meidroth 86
Roman 83
Yorke 74

ERA projections for startable guys...

Whitlock 3.73
Bello 4.28
Sale 4.30
Winckowski 4.36
Crawford 4.49
Pivetta 4.55
Houck 4.62
Walter 4.72
Paxton 4.78
Murphy 5.04

& prospects...

Coffey 4.61
Dobbins 4.79
Santos 4.93
BVB 4.94
Gambrell 5.12
Wikelman 5.16
Bastardo 5.19
Drohan 5.20

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-zips-projections-boston-red-sox/

I’d be pretty happy with a 94 OPS+ from Rafaela at age 23. That full-time in CF is basically 2018 vintage JBJ (92 OPS+), who was a 2.5 bWAR/3.4 fWAR player.

 

[JM3]

There's a thread in the Minor League forum (https://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/sox-rule-5-thread.41202/), but the Rule 5 draft is done & the Red Sox had Shane Drohan (White Sox) & Ryan Fernandez (Cards) taken in the MLB portion, & 7 players taken in the MiLB portion.

Here's the list with my rankings & then SPs at the end:

Draft over. 7 of the 63 players taken were Red Sox, 9 of 73 overall.

#21 SP Shane Drohan (SoxProspects #15) (could return)
#39 RP Ryan Fernandez (#31) (could return)
#50 IF Johnfrank Salazar
#88 OF Alexis Hernandez
#89 RP Brock Bell
#97 SP Jose Ramirez
#113 RP Railin Perez
#135 UT Ryan Fitzgerald
#217 RP Ryan Miller

2 of the 10 MLB selections & 7 of the 63 MiLB selections were from the Red Sox.

The passed on the MLB portion & the only player we drafted in the MiLB portion was C Mickey Gasper from the Yankees, who is 28 & hasn't had any success past AA (where he was teammates with Richard Fitts).

ETA - oops, left off the SP ranks.

 

[NickEsasky]

High RORP factor going on with these picks. (Ryan Over Replacement Player)

 

[Sin Duda]

What is the rule for the MiLB Rule 5 draftees? Do they have to stay with their new team, at the same or higher level, all year?

And, JM3, do any of the MiLBers taken from the Sox cause us any real pain?

 

[JM3]

What is the rule for the MiLB Rule 5 draftees? Do they have to stay with their new team, at the same or higher level, all year?

They can be assigned anywhere & do not have to be returned.

 

[Sin Duda]

They can be assigned anywhere & do not have to be returned.

Huh, thanks. Does that mean the Sox made them available to draft?

 

[JM3]

Huh, thanks. Does that mean the Sox made them available to draft?

Each team can protect 38 guys who are eligible for the Rule 5 draft but not on the 40-man roster. So they did not use any of their 38 protection spots on the guys who were drafted.