What Happens Next if They Sign Teoscar?

[chawson]

One small but potentially noteworthy factor in bringing Teoscar to Boston is that it could help us sign Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. in a couple years, if we wanted to. The two are reportedly very close.

"We were born to have this friendship," Teoscar Hernandez said last summer. “We got his family and mine together, and it’s just one family. You can’t even tell who belongs to my family and who belongs to his family.”

https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/blue-jays-stars-guerrero-jr-hernandez-were-born-to-have-this-friendship-135048223.html?src=rss

Vlad is on track for long-term DH duties, so there could potentially be complications there. But he'll also be just 26.

This 2026 lineup could be pretty fun:

Anthony - CF
Guerrero, Jr. - DH
Casas - 1B
Devers - 3B
Hernández - RF
Yoshida - LF
Story - 2B
Mayer - SS
Teel - C

 

[Hee Sox Choi]

When Rotoworld drops some snark into a rumor, you know a 4-year deal is a BAD idea:

“Getting out of T-Mobile Park will help, but anything more than a two-year deal would seem to be a bad idea.”

Red Sox and Angels are continuing to pursue Teoscar Hernández, according to MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo.
It looks like we’re getting closer to a resolution here. The Dodgers are also supposed to be involved, and Cotillo speculates that the outfielder could get a four-year deal. Red flags seem abundant with Hernández, who saw his slugging percentage (and xSLG) fall by a significant margin for a third straight year while he struck out 211 times for the Mariners last season. Getting out of T-Mobile Park will help, but anything more than a two-year deal would seem to be a bad idea

 

[moondog80]

Other than 2021, Vlad has been…good. No defensive value, already not in good condition. Still young, so talk to me in a couple of years but I don’t see superstar.

 

[kazuneko]

Not sure if this belongs here or rumors:

View: https://twitter.com/chriscotillo/status/1740056304758984901?s=46&t=ruXftPZUQ24009U4JlZWeg


Chris Cotillo: Sources: Red Sox remain among the most aggressive on Teoscar Hernandez, who has a handful of interested teams. Angels heavily involved too. Could get a 4-year deal if bidding gets there.

Scary that this rumor persists - at least for those of us that have no interest in Teo. Let’s remember that the Mariners are in desperate need of hitting and didn’t think this guy was worth a qualifying offer. Four years is absurd.
One interesting part of this latest rumor is that the Angels are interested, suggesting they might actually be wanting to compete next year. The assumption was that Ohtani’s departure would be the beginning of a rebuild, which would mean that Vets like Drury would be available. If they aren’t going in that direction that would suck for the Sox as Drury would likely be off the table…

 

[chawson]

I think Teoscar would be a really solid addition, especially if it allows us to trade an outfielder. The strikeouts are high, but I feel pretty comfortable that last year’s struggles are attributable to playing in Seattle.

Teoscar 2023
Away v. RHP | .287/.344/.483 130 wRC+
Away v. LHP | .328/.343/.500 130 wRC+
Home v. RHP | .204/.258/.330 65 wRC+
Home v. LHP | .253/.277/.519 112 wRC+

Seattle was the most offense-suppressing ballpark in baseball for RHB last year, according to Statcast, while also elevating strikeouts.

I think this is an Adrian Beltré 2009 situation.

 

[sezwho]

When Rotoworld drops some snark into a rumor, you know a 4-year deal is a BAD idea:

“Getting out of T-Mobile Park will help, but anything more than a two-year deal would seem to be a bad idea.”

Red Sox and Angels are continuing to pursue Teoscar Hernández, according to MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo.
It looks like we’re getting closer to a resolution here. The Dodgers are also supposed to be involved, and Cotillo speculates that the outfielder could get a four-year deal. Red flags seem abundant with Hernández, who saw his slugging percentage (and xSLG) fall by a significant margin for a third straight year while he struck out 211 times for the Mariners last season. Getting out of T-Mobile Park will help, but anything more than a two-year deal would seem to be a bad idea

His slugging AND obp BOTH fell by a significant margin for a third straight year.

Abreu + Rafaela + Martin + $ = what SP? Crap, I forgot to add Yorke. Always need to add Yorke.

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

One small but potentially noteworthy factor in bringing Teoscar to Boston is that it could help us sign Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. in a couple years, if we wanted to. The two are reportedly very close.

"We were born to have this friendship," Teoscar Hernandez said last summer. “We got his family and mine together, and it’s just one family. You can’t even tell who belongs to my family and who belongs to his family.”

https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/blue-jays-stars-guerrero-jr-hernandez-were-born-to-have-this-friendship-135048223.html?src=rss

Vlad is on track for long-term DH duties, so there could potentially be complications there. But he'll also be just 26.

This 2026 lineup could be pretty fun:

Anthony - CF
Guerrero, Jr. - DH
Casas - 1B
Devers - 3B
Hernández - RF
Yoshida - LF
Story - 2B
Mayer - SS
Teel - C

Vlad canonically hates the Yankees, also. But the guy you really want to keep your powder dry for is (noted Red Sox fan) Bobby Witt Jr…

 

[chawson]

Vlad canonically hates the Yankees, also. But the guy you really want to keep your powder dry for is (noted Red Sox fan) Bobby Witt Jr…

Good points. We’ve got a lot of powder. Story’s contract will be off the books by a Witt FA too.

 

[jbupstate]

Vlad canonically hates the Yankees, also. But the guy you really want to keep your powder dry for is (noted Red Sox fan) Bobby Witt Jr…

Witt Jr. is going to sign a $400m contract to stay in KC.

 

[kazuneko]

I think Teoscar would be a really solid addition, especially if it allows us to trade an outfielder. The strikeouts are high, but I feel pretty comfortable that last year’s struggles are attributable to playing in Seattle.

Teoscar 2023
Away v. RHP | .287/.344/.483 130 wRC+
Away v. LHP | .328/.343/.500 130 wRC+
Home v. RHP | .204/.258/.330 65 wRC+
Home v. LHP | .253/.277/.519 112 wRC+

Seattle was the most offense-suppressing ballpark in baseball for RHB last year, according to Statcast, while also elevating strikeouts.

I think this is an Adrian Beltré 2009 situation.

If it was like the Adrian Beltre 2009 situation he'd be getting a one-year deal. The current equivalent would probably be something akin to this year's QO, which - interestingly enough- the Mariners didn't feel comfortable extending him (i.e. they didn't think he was worth 1/year $20 million). The reason those of us who are against this hate the idea is there have now been repeated rumors that he could get a 4-year deal, which is ridiculous.

 

[OCD SS]

His slugging AND obp BOTH fell by a significant margin for a third straight year.

Abreu + Rafaela + Martin + $ = what SP? Crap, I forgot to add Yorke. Always need to add Yorke.

... and who's the CFer?

Vlad canonically hates the Yankees, also. But the guy you really want to keep your powder dry for is (noted Red Sox fan) Bobby Witt Jr…

We could probably make a really long list of all of the "keep your powder dry for this eventual signing" type guys. This year it was YY, who was it last year, or the year before? At any rate we probably need to see the FO commit to spending money on outside FA, unless you're looking to sign Victor Vodnik to a make good 2 years at $15M per in 2027...

 

[chawson]

If it was like the Adrian Beltre 2009 situation he'd be getting a one-year deal. The current equivalent would probably be something akin to this year's QO, which - interestingly enough- the Mariners didn't feel comfortable extending him (i.e. they didn't think he was worth 1/year $20 million). The reason those of us who are against this hate the idea is there have now been repeated rumors that he could get a 4-year deal, which is ridiculous.

Okay, it’s like 80 percent of an Adrian Beltré situation. The relevant part is not the contract situation but the ballpark.

I’m not sure I see your point though. Us signing Beltré to a multiyear deal rather than a one-year pact would have been the second-best alternate history Red Sox move of the last couple decades.

The Mariners are widely reported to be cutting payroll, and cutting back on strikeouts after finishing 29th of 30 in the stat last year. (The Sox had the twelfth-lowest strikeout rate.)

 

[BigSoxFan]

Other than 2021, Vlad has been…good. No defensive value, already not in good condition. Still young, so talk to me in a couple of years but I don’t see superstar.

Yeah, he’s not a guy I go big for. Thought he would be a higher impact guy but he’s never really been that guy outside of one year in 2021. No idea why he was so bad at home last year even with the moved in fences. Will be interesting to see how he performs this year but I don’t think you give monster deals to people with his body type.

 

[Harry Hooper]

If Teoscar is signed as a starting OF, you have:

Yoshida - Unlikely candidate for trade. Becomes primary DH with Hernandez on the club.
O'Neill - Just got here so not moving on.
Duran - Age and injury end to 2023 season dings trade value. Also, Cora likes him in the leadoff spot as igniter. Unlikely to be traded.
Abreu - Needs to play more days than not but may be a crowd in the Boston OF. Possibly traded.
Ceddanne - Needs to play more days than not but may be a crowd in the Boston OF. Possibly traded.
Refsnyder - Signed for 2024 but could be moved.


Yoshida is the primary DH who starts 1-2 games/week in LF. On those days, you move Devers or Hernandez to DH and boost defense elsewhere than LF. I'm sure I have neglected some possibilities, but a list of possible scenarios could include:

Scenario A
Hernandez is a corner OF playing almost every day.
Duran is the starting CF, playing almost every day.
O'Neill and Abreu are splitting time in some fashion. {Good luck, Cora!}
Ceddanne is either the starting 2B, back in the minors, or traded.
Refsnyder is gone or getting very limited playing time.

Scenario B
Hernandez is a corner OF playing almost every day.
Duran and O'Neill are splitting time in some fashion. {Good luck, Cora!}
Ceddanne is the starting CF.
Abreu is back in the minors or traded, not enough plying time available in Boston.
Refsnyder is gone or getting very limited playing time.

Scenario C
Hernandez is a corner OF playing almost every day.
Duran and O'Neill are close to everyday starters in the OF.
Ceddanne is in a 2B demi-platoon, but also playing a chunk of OF and SS in Brock Holt-ian role.
Abreu is back in the minors or traded, not enough playing time available in Boston.
Refsnyder is gone or getting very limited playing time.

Scenario D
Hernandez is a corner OF playing almost every day.
Duran and Abreu are close to everyday starters in the OF.
O'Neill is the 4th OF, spotting the others.
Ceddanne is either the starting 2B, back in the minors, or traded.
Refsnyder is gone or getting very limited playing time.


I don't see much utility in Abreu playing for the Woosox in 2024, so I guess I prefer him in Boston and Ceddanne working on swing discipline in Worcester. If he shows no improvement on that in the minors in 2024, however, Ceddanne will be losing luster as a prospect. Don't think it could be quite a Lars Anderson 2.0 outcome, but it's still a concern. Some trades will reshuffle the deck, of course.

 

[simplicio]

O'Neill and Abreu platoon pretty naturally, I think Abreu is seen as having the biggest split of the group.

 

[6-5 Sadler]

I wonder if the plan is to carry 6 OFs next year and utilize platoons more. It would definitely be a stretch and you would need to bring in a 2b that can cover multiple infield spots (hello Brandon Drury). Refsnyder also has some experience on the infield but that was a few years ago. Theoretically it would be:

Vs RHP

LF - Abreu
CF - Duran
RF - Teoscar
DH - Yoshida

Vs LHP

LF - Refsnyder
CF - O’Neal
RF - Teoscar
DH - Yoshida

 

[chawson]

O'Neill and Abreu platoon pretty naturally, I think Abreu is seen as having the biggest split of the group.

O’Neill is too good for a short-side platoon role. I think he’s the primary (if not everyday) center fielder, where his 97th percentile sprint speed helps.

2024
Yoshida - LF/DH
Teoscar - RF/DH
Abreu - RF/CF/DH
O’Neill - CF
Refsnyder - all OF
Duran - traded
Rafaela - AAA
Anthony - AA

In 2025, one of Rafaela or Anthony is our likely CF, but a best-case scenario has us offering O’Neill a QO.

 

[6-5 Sadler]

Seattle was the most offense-suppressing ballpark in baseball for RHB last year, according to Statcast, while also elevating strikeouts.

This is pretty interesting - I knew about the offense suppressing but was surprised by the strikeouts. It was also consistent from year to year and similar for RHBs and LHBs. Any idea on what could be driving that? Poor batters eye? Thicker air causing breaking balls to move more (reverse Coors effect). Pitchers attacking hitters more aggressively in the zone because they’re not afraid of extra base hits?

I also found the Fenway strikeout splits interesting. It’s a fairly neutral strikeout park for RHBs (2023 factor: 105) but suppresses them for LHBs (2023 factor: 78).

 

[6-5 Sadler]

O’Neill is too good for a short-side platoon role.

Yeah this was my primary concern with the platoon plan above. I do think it’s possible to get O’Neal 80ish starts across CF and RF (giving Teoscar a day off/DH day here and there). Injuries and effectiveness (or lack there of) could also potentially expand his playing time.

 

[simplicio]

I've been thinking about O'Neill as a RF, at least at home, cause he's got the combo of speed and arm. Duran would be a disaster over there.

 

[chrisfont9]

This is pretty interesting - I knew about the offense suppressing but was surprised by the strikeouts. It was also consistent from year to year and similar for RHBs and LHBs. Any idea on what could be driving that? Poor batters eye? Thicker air causing breaking balls to move more (reverse Coors effect). Pitchers attacking hitters more aggressively in the zone because they’re not afraid of extra base hits?

I also found the Fenway strikeout splits interesting. It’s a fairly neutral strikeout park for RHBs (2023 factor: 105) but suppresses them for LHBs (2023 factor: 78).

Cooler evening temperatures than average. We didn't have any heat waves last year, really, to bump up the numbers. Marine layer comes in at some point; I suspect the ball flies further from noon to about 7pm, between marine effects. Also, weirdly enough, bringing in the fences in 2013 made homers easier but other hits more difficult, with fielders having less ground to cover compared to a Coors Field. In Fenway, by contrast, the left field area is small but you can ding hits off the wall all day. In Seattle, if you don't hit it out, you don't have much space for anything else.

Source: https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2023/1/5/23473410/t-mobile-park-pitchers-park-hit-park-factors-effects-marine-layer-safeco-field

 

[kazuneko]

I’m not sure I see your point though. Us signing Beltré to a multiyear deal rather than a one-year pact would have been the second-best alternate history Red Sox move of the last couple decades.

The point is that Teo now, just like Beltre when the Sox signed him, is not the type of guy you'd typically have to pay big money to acquire. Like Beltre in 2009, Teo is coming off his worst year with the bat since becoming a regular. Unlike Beltre, this decline fits into a 3 year pattern of declining power production. Also unlike Beltre, Teo providers little value outside of his ability to hit for power. Beltre's off year leading into free agency is why he signed a one-year deal; anything longer would have been too risky for a guy who was potentially in decline.
Sure, in the end it would have been better if the Sox had done something longterm, but that doesn't mean they did the wrong thing. Teams are understandably wary about giving big-money, long-term contracts to players who just had their worst season and are on the other side of 30. I am of the belief that that is a wise policy, which is why I'd have zero interest in signing Teo to anything but a Beltre-esque pillow contract for 1 year.

 

[chawson]

The point is that Teo now, just like Beltre when the Sox signed him, is not the type of guy you'd typically have to pay big money to acquire. Like Beltre in 2009, Teo is coming off his worst year with the bat since becoming a regular. Unlike Beltre, this decline fits into a 3 year pattern of declining power production. Also unlike Beltre, Teo providers little value outside of his ability to hit for power. Beltre's off year leading into free agency is why he signed a one-year deal; anything longer would have been too risky for a guy who was potentially in decline.
Sure, in the end it would have been better if the Sox had done something longterm, but that doesn't mean they did the wrong thing. Teams are understandably wary about giving big-money, long-term contracts to players who just had their worst season and are on the other side of 30. I am of the belief that that is a wise policy, which is why I'd have zero interest in signing Teo to anything but a Beltre-esque pillow contract for 1 year.

My point is that the “worst year at the plate” stuff is overblown because Seattle suppresses offense, particularly for right-handed batters. It’s not as predictive of decline as it would be everywhere else.

Beltré’s Seattle stint showed that clearly, and I think Hernández 2023 is similar, considering his home/road splits. The strikeout risk is real but I don’t think he’s in the decline his numbers suggest.

 

[nvalvo]

Is it the batters’ eye in Seattle that boosts Ks? The foul territory? What’s going on there?

 

[6-5 Sadler]

Is it the batters’ eye in Seattle that boosts Ks? The foul territory? What’s going on there?

Thanks to chrisfont9 for sharing that Lookout Landing article above. I was curious about the strikeout factors so I reached out to John who wrote the article to see if he had any insights, offering up some of my theories above. Here is what he responded with:

“Hey, thanks for reading! At sea level, as you suggest, the ball moves as much more as possible with air resistance, which contributes to Seattle’s park effect in aid of strikeouts for pitchers. However, plenty of parks have roughly the same benefit. By my understanding a key edge for T-Mobile Park in upping K’s is that it has very little in play foul territory. Those would-be outs instead tick up towards strikeouts. Some of that is year-to-year fluctuation from roster construction but broadly speaking the relatively cold weather, sea level, and specific layout do help facilitate K’s!”

 

[Beomoose]

One small but potentially noteworthy factor in bringing Teoscar to Boston is that it could help us sign Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. in a couple years, if we wanted to. The two are reportedly very close.

"We were born to have this friendship," Teoscar Hernandez said last summer. “We got his family and mine together, and it’s just one family. You can’t even tell who belongs to my family and who belongs to his family.”

https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/blue-jays-stars-guerrero-jr-hernandez-were-born-to-have-this-friendship-135048223.html?src=rss

Vlad is on track for long-term DH duties, so there could potentially be complications there. But he'll also be just 26.

This 2026 lineup could be pretty fun:

Anthony - CF
Guerrero, Jr. - DH
Casas - 1B
Devers - 3B
Hernández - RF
Yoshida - LF
Story - 2B
Mayer - SS
Teel - C

If Teo gets us into the running for Vlad Jr I'm onboard. Can we get the Thanksgiving Dinner plans started as soon as the ink is dry?

 

[PedroisGod]

If Teo gets us into the running for Vlad Jr I'm onboard. Can we get the Thanksgiving Dinner plans started as soon as the ink is dry?

Sign Soto next year and Vlad Jr. the year after and hope for Manny/Papi pt. 2.

 

[johnlos]

Thanks to chrisfont9 for sharing that Lookout Landing article above. I was curious about the strikeout factors so I reached out to John who wrote the article to see if he had any insights, offering up some of my theories above. Here is what he responded with:

“Hey, thanks for reading! At sea level, as you suggest, the ball moves as much more as possible with air resistance, which contributes to Seattle’s park effect in aid of strikeouts for pitchers. However, plenty of parks have roughly the same benefit. By my understanding a key edge for T-Mobile Park in upping K’s is that it has very little in play foul territory. Those would-be outs instead tick up towards strikeouts. Some of that is year-to-year fluctuation from roster construction but broadly speaking the relatively cold weather, sea level, and specific layout do help facilitate K’s!”

Thanks--was studying Teo's numbers and was wondering about that SO park factor at T-Mobile.

In any case, as @chawson pointed out, Teoscar was fine on the road last year (122wRC+) after three straight years of 130+. Hard hit % and barrel rate were on par with previous three years too. Probably a decent buy low if the price is right. I'll admit it seems strange to pick up another OF in a position of strength, but I suppose they just don't trust Rafaela and/or O'Neill (or want the former to compete at 2nd).

 

[nvalvo]

Thanks to chrisfont9 for sharing that Lookout Landing article above. I was curious about the strikeout factors so I reached out to John who wrote the article to see if he had any insights, offering up some of my theories above. Here is what he responded with:

“Hey, thanks for reading! At sea level, as you suggest, the ball moves as much more as possible with air resistance, which contributes to Seattle’s park effect in aid of strikeouts for pitchers. However, plenty of parks have roughly the same benefit. By my understanding a key edge for T-Mobile Park in upping K’s is that it has very little in play foul territory. Those would-be outs instead tick up towards strikeouts. Some of that is year-to-year fluctuation from roster construction but broadly speaking the relatively cold weather, sea level, and specific layout do help facilitate K’s!”

I am just now seeing this; thanks!

 

[Manuel Aristides]

Sign Soto next year and Vlad Jr. the year after and hope for Manny/Papi pt. 2.

This is a pipe dream but oh my god do I want this. Damn you for making me aware of this fantastic idea.

 

[nattysez]

He gone.

Report: Dodgers agree to 1-year, $23.5M deal with Hernández
https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/2815928

 

[pjheff]

Change thread title?

 

[Max Power]

What happens if they don't?

 

[Van Everyman]

I guess we’ll never know.

 

[Diamond Don Aase]

He gone.

Report: Dodgers agree to 1-year, $23.5M deal with Hernández
https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/2815928

No Longer In Play, Red Sox Out(s).

 

[DeadlySplitter]

Never that interested, it turns out.

View: https://twitter.com/ChrisCotillo/status/1744192491379728575

 

[Rovin Romine]

Never that interested, it turns out.

View: https://twitter.com/ChrisCotillo/status/1744192491379728575

No, this guy Cortillo says they were totally in it:

View: https://twitter.com/chriscotillo/status/1740056304758984901?s=46&t=ruXftPZUQ24009U4JlZWeg


Chris Cotillo: Sources: Red Sox remain among the most aggressive on Teoscar Hernandez, who has a handful of interested teams. Angels heavily involved too. Could get a 4-year deal if bidding gets there.

 

[chrisfont9]

It must be because Henry directed them to spend, and then told them not to spend. It couldn’t be because he’s a mediocre fielder with a 106 OPS+ last year who Breslow liked at $14m but not much more.

 

[DeadlySplitter]

Clearly all the prior stuff was his agent trying to get his client a 3+ year deal, which no one ever offered. The postmortem source is probably legit Red Sox guy.