After beating Toronto 4-1 on July 28, the Red Sox were a season-high 23 games above .500 at 63-40, and were 2.5 games up in the AL East. Since then, they've gone 6-14 (.300), and now find themselves 6 games back - losing a staggering 8.5 games in the standings in just 20 games played. Their two main AL East rivals (TB and NY), meanwhile, have gone 14-5 (.737) and 16-5 (.762), respectively. So it's been a combination of Boston losing a ton and both TB and NY winning a ton. So the shift in the standings has been sudden and striking.
Now I haven't actually watched that much of this stretch of terrible baseball. But I can still ask the question, "What are losing streaks made of?" Because for the Red Sox, it's been a combination of a lot of different factors.
First, the offense has disappeared except for a few huge outbursts (that make the stats look better but only count as one win in the standings). In these last 20 games, here's the Sox' run distribution:
16-20 runs - 2 games
5-8 runs - 4 games
3-4 runs - 5 games
0-2 runs - 9 games
Put it all together and outside of the two huge outbursts, the Sox are averaging a paltry 3.1 runs a game. In today's baseball, that's simply not remotely going to cut it. I can't find the stat, but at one point during this run the Red Sox were like 0 for their last 30 with runners in scoring position, or something crazy like that. So situational hitting has been atrocious. They have gotten guys on base, they've had wonderful scoring opportunities, and they can't do jack squat with them.
Second, along those lines, their best hitters have slumped. Not counting last night's game (in which they only scored 2 runs), here's how their best hitters have done during this stretch:
Bogaerts:
- pre-slump: .309/.372/.518/.890
- slump: .297/.395/.484/.879
Martinez:
- pre-slump: .296/.365/.552/.916
- slump: .266/.309/.469/.778
Devers:
- pre-slump: .286/.357/.586/.944
- slump: .262/.366/.426/.792
So the key guys you're expecting to carry the offense have all basically crapped the bed at the same time. Verdugo has been better, and Renfroe is okay, but the anchors of the offense have been...well...anchors, weighing the offense down. The offense is constructed such that they need two of these guys going at basically all times, and right now none of them are, at least compared to what they had been doing (though Bogaerts is at least *close*).
Third, it's been terrible base running and fielding. We've seen butchery in the field. We've seen base running that Little Leaguers would be ashamed of. Making outs in silly situations.
Fourth, the bullpen has been worn down by overuse. Part of this is due to decreased effectiveness by the starting pitching, but part of it has to do with Cora's philosophy of not letting guys face the order a third time. He's not 100% strict on that but clearly he leans that way, and he's much more likely to go to the bullpen quicker. Though it must be said, on the days when he doesn't have a quick hook and it bites him, this place blows up with "Why is Cora trying to steal outs?" Barnes isn't nearly as effective as he had been. Taylor has regressed. And they've had several games in hand but the bullpen blew them. Those are demoralizing.
Fifth, the manager. He doesn't seem to be pushing any of the right buttons. Put that on the players, yes, because at the end of the day they are all professionals who have jobs to do. JD Martinez shouldn't need an inspirational speech by Cora to stop swinging at curve balls in the dirt. He's one of the most professional hitters I've ever seen and of COURSE he knows better. But, well, when you're slumping, even pros do things like that. He's in a major funk and that's not on Cora. But Cora doesn't seem to be able to pull them out of this. His decision-making is lacking, and though we don't know what he's doing behind the scenes, whatever he IS doing isn't working.
Sixth, they're doing just enough to lose. During this stretch, when they've gotten good pitching, the offense has disappeared. They lost 3-2 to Tampa, 1-0 to Toronto, and 2-0 to NY. And then when the offense is going (except for their blowup games), the pitching has crapped the bed. They lost 9-8 to Toronto, 9-5 to Tampa, and 8-4 to Tampa (the 4 represents a good offensive showing for them during this stretch).
The only games they've won during this stretch are:
- 4-1 over Detroit
- 2-1 over Toronto
- 20-8 over Tampa
- 8-1 over Baltimore
- 16-2 over Baltimore
- 6-2 over Baltimore
That's TWO wins against teams with a winning record during this 20-game stretch. TWO. They've lost *12* games to teams with winning records during this slump.
Seventh, there's been some bad luck. Bad calls by the umps changing the count (and thus the game situation), bad bounces, getting beat by Texas leaguers and infield choppers while their own lasers are finding opponents' gloves. That all comes into play, but the thing is, they've created so little margin for error that these things truly are impacting games. If they were playing better, yeah these bad breaks would annoy us, but they wouldn't be as impactful.
So all in all, it's been basically a total team effort in this slump. Hitting has been worse. Pitching has been worse. Managing has been worse. Fielding has been worse. There's been a bunch of bad luck involved. It's everything, combined with Tampa and New York playing lights out baseball (which makes it all so much worse), and this is what losing streaks are made of.
Now I haven't actually watched that much of this stretch of terrible baseball. But I can still ask the question, "What are losing streaks made of?" Because for the Red Sox, it's been a combination of a lot of different factors.
First, the offense has disappeared except for a few huge outbursts (that make the stats look better but only count as one win in the standings). In these last 20 games, here's the Sox' run distribution:
16-20 runs - 2 games
5-8 runs - 4 games
3-4 runs - 5 games
0-2 runs - 9 games
Put it all together and outside of the two huge outbursts, the Sox are averaging a paltry 3.1 runs a game. In today's baseball, that's simply not remotely going to cut it. I can't find the stat, but at one point during this run the Red Sox were like 0 for their last 30 with runners in scoring position, or something crazy like that. So situational hitting has been atrocious. They have gotten guys on base, they've had wonderful scoring opportunities, and they can't do jack squat with them.
Second, along those lines, their best hitters have slumped. Not counting last night's game (in which they only scored 2 runs), here's how their best hitters have done during this stretch:
Bogaerts:
- pre-slump: .309/.372/.518/.890
- slump: .297/.395/.484/.879
Martinez:
- pre-slump: .296/.365/.552/.916
- slump: .266/.309/.469/.778
Devers:
- pre-slump: .286/.357/.586/.944
- slump: .262/.366/.426/.792
So the key guys you're expecting to carry the offense have all basically crapped the bed at the same time. Verdugo has been better, and Renfroe is okay, but the anchors of the offense have been...well...anchors, weighing the offense down. The offense is constructed such that they need two of these guys going at basically all times, and right now none of them are, at least compared to what they had been doing (though Bogaerts is at least *close*).
Third, it's been terrible base running and fielding. We've seen butchery in the field. We've seen base running that Little Leaguers would be ashamed of. Making outs in silly situations.
Fourth, the bullpen has been worn down by overuse. Part of this is due to decreased effectiveness by the starting pitching, but part of it has to do with Cora's philosophy of not letting guys face the order a third time. He's not 100% strict on that but clearly he leans that way, and he's much more likely to go to the bullpen quicker. Though it must be said, on the days when he doesn't have a quick hook and it bites him, this place blows up with "Why is Cora trying to steal outs?" Barnes isn't nearly as effective as he had been. Taylor has regressed. And they've had several games in hand but the bullpen blew them. Those are demoralizing.
Fifth, the manager. He doesn't seem to be pushing any of the right buttons. Put that on the players, yes, because at the end of the day they are all professionals who have jobs to do. JD Martinez shouldn't need an inspirational speech by Cora to stop swinging at curve balls in the dirt. He's one of the most professional hitters I've ever seen and of COURSE he knows better. But, well, when you're slumping, even pros do things like that. He's in a major funk and that's not on Cora. But Cora doesn't seem to be able to pull them out of this. His decision-making is lacking, and though we don't know what he's doing behind the scenes, whatever he IS doing isn't working.
Sixth, they're doing just enough to lose. During this stretch, when they've gotten good pitching, the offense has disappeared. They lost 3-2 to Tampa, 1-0 to Toronto, and 2-0 to NY. And then when the offense is going (except for their blowup games), the pitching has crapped the bed. They lost 9-8 to Toronto, 9-5 to Tampa, and 8-4 to Tampa (the 4 represents a good offensive showing for them during this stretch).
The only games they've won during this stretch are:
- 4-1 over Detroit
- 2-1 over Toronto
- 20-8 over Tampa
- 8-1 over Baltimore
- 16-2 over Baltimore
- 6-2 over Baltimore
That's TWO wins against teams with a winning record during this 20-game stretch. TWO. They've lost *12* games to teams with winning records during this slump.
Seventh, there's been some bad luck. Bad calls by the umps changing the count (and thus the game situation), bad bounces, getting beat by Texas leaguers and infield choppers while their own lasers are finding opponents' gloves. That all comes into play, but the thing is, they've created so little margin for error that these things truly are impacting games. If they were playing better, yeah these bad breaks would annoy us, but they wouldn't be as impactful.
So all in all, it's been basically a total team effort in this slump. Hitting has been worse. Pitching has been worse. Managing has been worse. Fielding has been worse. There's been a bunch of bad luck involved. It's everything, combined with Tampa and New York playing lights out baseball (which makes it all so much worse), and this is what losing streaks are made of.