What went wrong?

Dan to Theo to Ben · Sep 6, 2014

The loss of Jacoby started the descending spiral. That should be up there. (Kind of is with #'s 1 and 4, but not really)

/P91

hellborn · Sep 6, 2014

It's easier to compile a list of what went right...

- Brock Holt

williams_482 · Sep 6, 2014

hellborn said:
It's easier to compile a list of what went right...

- Brock Holt

You could add Mike Napoli, Jon Lester, John Lackey, and Andrew Miller to that list as well, but that is pretty much it.

"Virtually everything that could have gone wrong did go wrong" is a boring answer which fails to offer any nice, easy, encouraging solutions, but that does not make it incorrect.

brandonchristensen · Sep 6, 2014

Wow, I had almost completely forgotten about the Sizemore Incident.

Buzzkill Pauley · Sep 6, 2014

Losing Victorino was, I think, the absolute toughest situation to work through for the offense.

If Vic had been healthy to start the year the Sox could have kept JBJ down in AAA, shifted Vic from RF over to CF when Sizemore proved unable to field the position adequately, and taken at-bats away from the weak-side platooning of Nava and Gomes.

Vic wasn't likely to have provided that much additional power, so losing Napoli's power stroke to the finger dislocation probably still would have been enough to drag the offense to average-or-slightly-below anyway.

But an average-or-slightly-below offense would have kept the Sox in WC contention...at least before Koji imploded.

Frank Fenway · Sep 6, 2014

AJ Pierzynski is a blight on humanity. All of our lives have been made slightly worse having to gaze upon his ugly face in a Red Sox uniform.

Hee Sox Choi · Sep 6, 2014

Frank said:
AJ Pierzynski is a blight on humanity. All of our lives have been made slightly worse having to gaze upon his ugly face in a Red Sox uniform.

I'm hoping we can sign Josh Lueke or Angel Villalona to lift us up and help us forget the evil that was AJ Pierzynski.

benhogan · Sep 6, 2014

williams_482 said:
You could add Mike Napoli, Jon Lester, John Lackey, and Andrew Miller to that list as well, but that is pretty much it.

"Virtually everything that could have gone wrong did go wrong" is a boring answer which fails to offer any nice, easy, encouraging solutions, but that does not make it incorrect.

Papi
First 4 1/2 months of Koji
Badenhop
Betts

benhogan · Sep 6, 2014

Trotsky said:
A whole bunch of things, that's what. Don't know if I can put it in any order, but from the start....

-The Spring Training illusion of Grady Sizemore
-The missing season of Vic
-Nava's offensive shitshow early in the season
-JBJ's offensive struggles (his defense still made him a net positive however...)
-Middlebrooks utter ineptitude
-Sox' Brass lack of patience with X at SS (which led to)
-Bringing back Drew (which, IMO led to)
-X losing his rhythm, and his subsequent struggles at the plate
-Pedroia's down season on the offensive side
-AJfuckinP
-Clay
-Peavey
-Doobie

Boiling it down to: 3/5 of starting pitching. left side of infield. entire outfield. catcher. poop.

It seems a lot of people want to dump on X and especially JBJ's offensive struggles, but IMO they could have played reasonably well (.725 OPS out of X and .700 OPS out of JBJ) and there was still far, far, far too many other problems to overcome.

It sounds like you are doing your fair share of dumping on JBJ and X.

I really haven't read anyone on SoSH that has laid the entire blame of this season at the feet of JBJ and X. Its pretty universal around here that it was most of the players, the manager/coaches and front office that screwed up 2014.

bschase2 · Sep 6, 2014

The entire season changed when they signed Drew. It was completely reactionary, and not what we expected from this front office. Did it really effect X? Who knows, but clearly it didn't help. I can't really explain why I hated to move so much, as there were clearly some good arguments for the signing at the time. But for me, that's the moment I threw in the towel on 2015.

jimv · Sep 6, 2014

bschase2 said:
The entire season changed when they signed Drew. It was completely reactionary, and not what we expected from this front office. Did it really effect X? Who knows, but clearly it didn't help. I can't really explain why I hated to move so much, as there were clearly some good arguments for the signing at the time. But for me, that's the moment I threw in the towel on 2015.

Really? If you're going to make a sweeping statement like that you need to bring some data to back it up. Seems to me the team was mediocre before, during and after the Drew experiment

Traut · Sep 6, 2014

bschase2 said:
The entire season changed when they signed Drew.

This is wrong, They sucked before Drew and they sucked after Drew. They got a slight bump after signing Drew and before his arrival in Boston. The season didn't change when they signed Drew. It didn't get better but it pretty much didn't get worse when you factor in the departures of Lester, Lackey, Miller et al.

20-25 (.444) before they signed Drew on May 21, 2014.
7-4 (.636) after Drew's signing and before his arrival in Boston.
21-30 (.411) with Drew in Boston.
13-19 (.406) after trading Drew.
42-54 (.437) overall after signing Drew.
62-79 (.440) overall record.

*if you add these up and they don't make sense it's because I suck at simple math. But the point stands. Drew was a waste of money but not the reason the Sox tanked. Wealthy teams like the Sox should use their money trying to address problems. The left side of the infield blowing goats all season was a problem. Hard to fault the Sox for buying the best available solution.

geoduck no quahog · Sep 6, 2014

Don't you understand? They would have played .670 ball after 21 May if only they hadn't signed Drew.

Traut · Sep 6, 2014

geoduck no quahog said:
Don't you understand? They would have played .670 ball after 21 May if only they hadn't signed Drew.

And if Xander's panties got so bunched up as a result of the Drew signing that it caused him to forget how to field and hit than Xander is not ready for prime time. The blame for that lies primarily with Xander and secondarily with the front office and coaching staff. I hate coming to the defense of Drew but his signing was a non factor this season.

Savin Hillbilly · Sep 6, 2014

Trautwein's Degree said:
I hate coming to the defense of Drew but his signing was a non factor this season.

Right. The most you can say is that it didn't help. So yeah, Drew is a factor in the overall failure, in that whatever benefits the team hoped for from acquiring him did not materialize. But portraying him as some kind of catalyst of suck is simultaneously being too hard on him and giving him too much credit. He was just a fellow passenger on the good ship Titanic.

The answer to the thread question is "nearly everything." And that was directly following a season in which the answer was "nearly nothing." Instant karma got us.

Traut · Sep 6, 2014

Savin Hillbilly said:
Right. The most you can say is that it didn't help. So yeah, Drew is a factor in the overall failure, in that whatever benefits the team hoped for from acquiring him did not materialize. But portraying him as some kind of catalyst of suck is simultaneously being too hard on him and giving him too much credit. He was just a fellow passenger on the good ship Titanic.

The answer to the thread question is "nearly everything." And that was directly following a season in which the answer was "nearly nothing." Instant karma got us.

I didn't go to the Fris/Jnai SABR Seminar but I believe the math nerds call this "regression to the mean". Abs can tell me I'm wrong in chat - he always does. The Sox are on pace to go 71 and 91. The 2013 team went 91-65. That's good for a 162-162 record over the past 2 seasons. Yeah, this group of guys may have been both the best .500 club ever in 2013 and the worst .500 club ever in 2014.

Monbo Jumbo · Sep 6, 2014

I think your data shows "regression below the mean," Traut.

LeoCarrillo · Sep 6, 2014

benhogan said:
Papi
First 4 1/2 months of Koji
Badenhop
Betts

Vazquez has been enjoyable.

Traut · Sep 6, 2014

Monbo Jumbo said:
I think your data shows "regression below the mean," Traut.

Right. I knew I should have stopped with "regression". I'm a guy who got a 76 in a Framingham State stats course. I consider it a victory that I even remember the concept of regression. But anyhow, what went wrong with this team is kind of simple. The front office bought into 2012 as being an aberration and 2013 being closer to the real deal. Trouble is that right not it looks like 2013 was aberrant. If you conclude the 2013 team was the real deal than letting Ellsbury walk, signing Sizemore, and letting Bradley Jr. get at bats isn't a terrible decision. Even if it cost the Sox 3 wins they're still likely in first place.

The front office has failed miserably since Koji closed out the Cards last October. The weren't aggressive last winter. They got worse. Some of it is bad luck but much of it is poor design. Perhaps they should have moved guys like Middlebrooks and Bradley last offseason for an established player.

TomRicardo · Sep 6, 2014

LeoCarrillo said:
Vazquez has been enjoyable.

Vazquez is pretty much the same as JBJ. Can't hit but great with the glove.

TomRicardo · Sep 6, 2014

Trautwein's Degree said:
Right. I knew I should have stopped with "regression". I'm a guy who got a 76 in a Framingham State stats course. I consider it a victory that I even remember the concept of regression. But anyhow, what went wrong with this team is kind of simple. The front office bought into 2012 as being an aberration and 2013 being closer to the real deal. Trouble is that right not it looks like 2013 was aberrant. If you conclude the 2013 team was the real deal than letting Ellsbury walk, signing Sizemore, and letting Bradley Jr. get at bats isn't a terrible decision. Even if it cost the Sox 3 wins they're still likely in first place.

The front office has failed miserably since Koji closed out the Cards last October. The weren't aggressive last winter. They got worse. Some of it is bad luck but much of it is poor design. Perhaps they should have moved guys like Middlebrooks and Bradley last offseason for an established player.

Ellsbury is not going to be worth what he was paid this year. His contract is closer to Carl Crawford than Manny Ramirez. I am very glad the Red Sox had no part in that.

LostinNJ · Sep 6, 2014

Trautwein's Degree said:
I didn't go to the Fris/Jnai SABR Seminar but I believe the math nerds call this "regression to the mean". Abs can tell me I'm wrong in chat - he always does. The Sox are on pace to go 71 and 91. The 2013 team went 91-65. That's good for a 162-162 record over the past 2 seasons. Yeah, this group of guys may have been both the best .500 club ever in 2013 and the worst .500 club ever in 2014.

They were 97-65 last year, so a little better than .500 over two years.

It's not the same group of guys, though. They replaced Ellsbury/Victorino in the outfield with Sizemore/Bradley, Drew with Bogaerts, and Saltalamacchia with Pierzynski. In retrospect, the deployment of Sizemore and Pierzynski was a sign that they viewed 2015 as a bridge year.

The problem is, as bridge years go, this one has been pretty crappy. Bogaerts and Bradley have struggled, most of the signs of life among the pitching prospects have come in the minors, and Middlebrooks has turned into a rotten pumpkin.

I can live with a lousy season like this as long as it doesn't cause them to get stupid in the offseason. The Red Sox have what could be the core of a perennial contender with Betts, Bogaerts, Vasquez, Swihart, Castillo, maybe Bradley, Owens, and whichever of the other pitchers makes it. It would be infuriating to see them trade three or four of those guys for someone like Cole Hamels.

Traut · Sep 6, 2014

TomRicardo said:
Ellsbury is not going to be worth what he was paid this year. His contract is closer to Carl Crawford than Manny Ramirez. I am very glad the Red Sox had no part in that.

That's right but failing to find some better replacement than Sizemore and Bradley hurt this team. Bradley's at bats make Heidi Watney Era Varitek's at bats look good by way of comparison.

wade boggs chicken dinner · Sep 6, 2014

The front office has failed miserably since Koji closed out the Cards last October. The weren't aggressive last winter. They got worse. Some of it is bad luck but much of it is poor design. Perhaps they should have moved guys like Middlebrooks and Bradley last offseason for an established player.

They weren't aggressive because Ben (at least according to reports) thought the Sox had the best talent in the AL East.

I think you are right that the talent evaluation was biased by a 2013 where absolutely everything went right.

One would have hoped that the Red Sox front office realized that it was very unlikely that the same collection of players would have won 95+ games again.

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat · Sep 6, 2014

wade boggs chicken dinner said:
They weren't aggressive because Ben (at least according to reports) thought the Sox had the best talent in the AL East.

I think you are right that the talent evaluation was biased by a 2013 where absolutely everything went right.

One would have hoped that the Red Sox front office realized that it was very unlikely that the same collection of players would have won 95+ games again.

But absolutely everything didn't go right in 2013. For starters, they lost two closers for the season, their Ace for three months, and their stud lefty set-up man for the end of the season/post-season. Getting Buchholz back at full strength and rebuilding their bullpen(Miller, Badenhop, Mujica) could have/should have resulted in a pitching staff stronger than the one in last year's playoffs.

MuzzyField · Sep 6, 2014

Trautwein's Degree said:
This is wrong, They sucked before Drew and they sucked after Drew. They got a slight bump after signing Drew and before his arrival in Boston. The season didn't change when they signed Drew. It didn't get better but it pretty much didn't get worse when you factor in the departures of Lester, Lackey, Miller et al.

20-25 (.444) before they signed Drew on May 21, 2014.
7-4 (.636) after Drew's signing and before his arrival in Boston.
21-30 (.411) with Drew in Boston.
13-19 (.406) after trading Drew.
42-54 (.437) overall after signing Drew.
62-79 (.440) overall record.

*if you add these up and they don't make sense it's because I suck at simple math. But the point stands. Drew was a waste of money but not the reason the Sox tanked. Wealthy teams like the Sox should use their money trying to address problems. The left side of the infield blowing goats all season was a problem. Hard to fault the Sox for buying the best available solution.

The best available solution wasn't taking a flyer on an unemployed player 29 other team, several needing a SS passed on. QO be damned. Drew was a major contributor to the suck of this season. He made the 2014 Red Sox measurably worse.
No Drew, the Holt bump takes over for WMB's at 3rd and X, still better than Drew at the plate even when sucking, is at SS.
I'd also like to add to the 'reaction' frustrated pitchers, and others bitching for help and the Drew signing being their pacifier.
Thankfully, so far, the Drew failed experiment didn't serve as a spring training to awesomeness for him as a Yankee.
Drew's 30, fucking lost, and currently sporting an empty Scott Boras binder. Maybe John Henry is on to something.

Sprowl · Sep 6, 2014

Hee Sox Choi said:
I'm hoping we can sign Josh Lueke or Angel Villalona to lift us up and help us forget the evil that was AJ Pierzynski.

Unforgettable
Never before
has someone been more

Never mind, I've already forgotten him. Devil spawn come, devil spawn go, it's just another transaction.

MakMan44 · Sep 6, 2014

MuzzyField said:
The best available solution wasn't taking a flyer on an unemployed player 29 other team, several needing a SS passed on. QO be damned. Drew was a major contributor to the suck of this season. He made the 2014 Red Sox measurably worse.
No Drew, the Holt bump takes over for WMB's at 3rd and X, still better than Drew at the plate even when sucking, is at SS.
I'd also like to add to the 'reaction' frustrated pitchers, and others bitching for help and the Drew signing being their pacifier.
Thankfully, so far, the Drew failed experiment didn't serve as a spring training to awesomeness for him as a Yankee.
Drew's 30, fucking lost, and currently sporting an empty Scott Boras binder. Maybe John Henry is on to something.

Brock Holt was playing over his head in a big way most of the season. There was literally zero reason to suspect he'd be that good, and SOSH would have collectively flipped if Holt had just been handed the keys to 3rd after WMB's injury. Hell, I'm sure there actually was quite a few of those posts before the Drew signing. Holt was expected to be a stop gap at 3rd, nothing more.

MuzzyField · Sep 6, 2014

MakMan44 said:
Brock Holt was playing over his head in a big way most of the season. There was literally zero reason to suspect he'd be that good, and SOSH would have collectively flipped if Holt had just been handed the keys to 3rd after WMB's injury. Hell, I'm sure there actually was quite a few of those posts before the Drew signing. Holt was expected to be a stop gap at 3rd, nothing more.

Ben didn't let the moment breath. Stop gap turned into lightning in a bottle.
I hated the Drew signing, and it's no secret. Immediate need isn't filled by a guy taking swings at Camp Boras. Drew was playing MLB games that counted because 10-days was all he needed to be ready as negotiated. Turned out, he needed many more. I hope Ben has figured out 10-days isn't enough time to prep, and would not repeat this type of move in the future.
That said, I give Drew much credit for creating the fire sale that currently has me optimistic for 2015.

Sprowl · Sep 6, 2014

MakMan44 said:
Brock Holt was playing over his head in a big way most of the season. There was literally zero reason to suspect he'd be that good, and SOSH would have collectively flipped if Holt had just been handed the keys to 3rd after WMB's injury. Hell, I'm sure there actually was quite a few of those posts before the Drew signing. Holt was expected to be a stop gap at 3rd, nothing more.

Judging by his fielding performance, he's just a stopgap at 3B. He's a very good RF, a solid 2B, rangebound but not bad at SS, and prone to overthrowing at 3B. As super-utility players, both Betts and Holt are limited by their arms.

MakMan44 · Sep 6, 2014

MuzzyField said:
Ben didn't let the moment breath. Stop gap turned into lightning in a bottle.
I hated the Drew signing, and it's no secret. Immediate need isn't filled by a guy taking swings at Camp Boras. Drew was playing MLB games that counted because 10-days was all he needed to be ready as negotiated. Turned out, he needed many more. I hope Ben has figured out 10-days isn't enough time to prep, and would not repeat this type of move in the future.
That said, I give Drew much credit for creating the fire sale that currently has me optimistic for 2015.

Doesn't really matter either way, now that I think about it. Unless you're a believer of X's confidence being shattered by Drew's signing, I don't really see how Drew was a big reason for this year. I mean, Holt's racked up nearly 500 PA so far this season anyway.

Sprowl said:
Judging by his fielding performance, he's just a stopgap at 3B. He's a very good RF, a solid 2B, rangebound but not bad at SS, and prone to overthrowing at 3B. As super-utility players, both Betts and Holt are limited by their arms.

Agreed. He's an incredibly useful player.

MuzzyField · Sep 6, 2014

Sprowl said:
Judging by his fielding performance, he's just a stopgap at 3B. He's a very good RF, a solid 2B, rangebound but not bad at SS, and prone to overthrowing at 3B. As super-utility players, both Betts and Holt are limited by their arms.

I definitely agree Sprowl... But the lightning was Holt's bat and ability to lead off. The team was so run starved his glove/arm at 3rd would have been a worthy trade off. It was the outfield that needed help to return Nava/Gomes to LF platoon and protect JBJ's lack of bat.

geoduck no quahog · Sep 6, 2014

Saying Drew is responsible for Red Sox suck is like blaming your headache on the aspirin instead of the 12 shots of bourbon and 5 grappas you drank last night.

seantoo · Sep 6, 2014

Trautwein's Degree said:
Right. I knew I should have stopped with "regression". I'm a guy who got a 76 in a Framingham State stats course. I consider it a victory that I even remember the concept of regression. But anyhow, what went wrong with this team is kind of simple. The front office bought into 2012 as being an aberration and 2013 being closer to the real deal. Trouble is that right not it looks like 2013 was aberrant. If you conclude the 2013 team was the real deal than letting Ellsbury walk, signing Sizemore, and letting Bradley Jr. get at bats isn't a terrible decision. Even if it cost the Sox 3 wins they're still likely in first place.

The front office has failed miserably since Koji closed out the Cards last October. The weren't aggressive last winter. They got worse. Some of it is bad luck but much of it is poor design. Perhaps they should have moved guys like Middlebrooks and Bradley last offseason for an established player.

That is a opinion shared by more than 1, but why is 2013 more or less of an aberration then 2014, isn't it more likely that both years have been and the truth lies somewhere in the middle?

MuzzyField · Sep 6, 2014

geoduck no quahog said:
Saying Drew is responsible for Red Sox suck is like blaming your headache on the aspirin instead of the 12 shots of bourbon and 5 grappas you drank last night.

That's not what I'm saying. I'm saying he gets a full share of the team suck. He earned it!

seantoo · Sep 7, 2014

Sprowl said:
Judging by his fielding performance, he's just a stopgap at 3B. He's a very good RF, a solid 2B, rangebound but not bad at SS, and prone to overthrowing at 3B. As super-utility players, both Betts and Holt are limited by their arms.

I wanted to trade Nava after last season because it seemed obvious at his age that he had a career year, while the same is less likely to be true for Holt he'll still be 27 years old at seasons end and Betts makes Holt a little redundant. Brock's splits this season; before the all-star 327/371/463 and after 217/278/271 and monthly splits show that his overall numbers heavily influenced by a strong June. All things considered I'd rather trade him while his value is high and risk being wrong.

ji oh · Sep 7, 2014

seantoo said:
I wanted to trade Nava after last season because it seemed obvious at his age that he had a career year, while the same is less likely to be true for Holt he'll still be 27 years old at seasons end and Betts makes Holt a little redundant. Brock's splits this season; before the all-star 327/371/463 and after 217/278/271 and monthly splits show that his overall numbers heavily influenced by a strong June. All things considered I'd rather trade him while his value is high and risk being wrong.

You think Holt's value is high after a 217/278/271 second half?

TheoShmeo · Sep 7, 2014

Most of the reasons for this season have been covered. I'll add an intangible factor that, to be sure, should not be at the top of any list. At the same time, I don't think it can be totally discounted as a factor, albeit not a leading one.

In 2013, I think one of the many things the Sox had going for them was good team chemistry and an overall extremely positve teamwide culture, likely fueled in part by the Marathon bombing and the impact the team knew it was having on the city. This is obviously a bit of psychobabble and impossible to measure, but the players sure talked about it a lot during the season and after they won.

In 2014, the failure to get Lester done in Spring Training or thereafter -- a move that seemed so sensible given the player's public statements and his pedigree, including his post season heroics -- seemed to cast a shadow of sorts over the team. "If they're not going to sign THAT guy...."

Now I get it. Losing Ellsbury, the many injuries, the paltry production at C, SS and CF, Will's continued suck, Buck's hideous performance and many other tangible problems are all above the Lester non-signing on the list. But, again, I think it played a role. Not on Lester's performance, ironically, but on the overall sense of where this season was going.

jasail · Sep 7, 2014

I started to type out what went wrong and realized it's probably easier to tell you what went right:

Ortiz continued to be a productive middle of the line up bat; Koji, Taz and Miller provided a formidable back end of the bullpen; Napoli was reliable; Pedroia and Bradley played gold glove defense; and while Lester and Lackey wore Sox jerseys they were very good starters.

Other than that, the team fielded a pitiful OF and left side of the infield; they couldn't hit for power; 3/5 of their rotation sucked; and their starting catcher was terrible. The FO didn't do a good enough job building depth to mitigate obvious risk of injury (Victorino, Buchholz); regression from 2013 (Nava, Gomes, AJP, Doubront, Peavy); or rookie struggles (X, JBJ, WMB). In retrospect, they would have needed to win nearly all their gambles to put together a team similar to last year, but it just so happened that every roster gamble they took they lost on.

knucklecup · Sep 7, 2014

MuzzyField said:
The best available solution wasn't taking a flyer on an unemployed player 29 other team, several needing a SS passed on. QO be damned.

It bothers me when people try to pump up their argument in this fashion. Qualifying offer shall not be damned. That was the sole reason he wasn't signed by the 29 other teams you're referring to.

Yaz4Ever · Sep 7, 2014

geoduck no quahog said:
Saying Drew is responsible for Red Sox suck is like blaming your headache on the aspirin instead of the 12 shots of bourbon and 5 grappas you drank last night.

Only if the aspirin doesn't help make you feel better about what you did the night before.

I think Trotsky's list is pretty good, but as others have mentioned you need to include positives like Holt and Vazquez. I'm still a believer in Xander and feel he'll help us forget this lost year beginning early next season. That may very well be my man-crush on him shining through any evidence to the contrary.

Plympton91 · Sep 7, 2014

ji oh said:
You think Holt's value is high after a 217/278/271 second half?

You have to remember that some major league GMs might be unaware of things like Nava's age and Holt's second half numbers. This is is why SOSH rocks.

More seriously:

The best way to hedge against Victorino's obvious inability to be ready at the start of spring training and Bradley's obvious inability to hit major league pitching in 2013 was to sign Ellsbury. As I laid out in multiple offseason posts, the Yankee contract is fully justified by a reasonable WAR projection.

But I understand others vehemently disagree. That's fine. However, If they weren't going to sign Ellsbury, they should have beaten Houston's offer and traded for Dexter Fowler.

They also should have gotten Lester and Miller signed to extensions in spring training.

They also should have sign Saltalamacchia. I understand the arguments against that too. However, If they weren't going to sign Salty, they should have beaten TB offer and traded for Ryan Hannigan, a catcher that matched their offensive and game planning philosophies far far better than AJP.

Can't really say I blame them for the left side of the infield. They had depth without Drew, it all went to shit. When they signed Drew he hit like shit, though his defense was nearly as fun to watch as Bradley's. But, since his last name is Drew, the sports talk contingent can't see that.

One thing not mentioned is Bryce Brentz getting hurt for most of the year. He probably wouldn't have been any better than Bradley offensively, but you never know if he could of had a month like Middlebrooks in 2012 and given them a boost.

Agree that the failure of any of the AAA pitcher that they wanted to take a step forward to do so was a big problem too. That was compounded perhaps by the failure to give out starts on merit, which would have meant giving them to Wright.

OptimusPapi · Sep 8, 2014

How was Jbj inability to hit obvious last offseason?

Snodgrass'Muff · Sep 8, 2014

It's also worth pointing out that Rubby de la Rosa absolutely took a step forward this season.
A 4.01 ERA, 4.28 FIP and 4.19 xFIP are signicantly better than he looked last year.

jscola85 · Sep 8, 2014

Most important for Rubby IMO is he has flashed the ability to throw 2-3 plus pitches, and also has the ability to dial up an extra gear even in the 6th/7th inning when needed. I feel totally confident giving him a rotation spot next year. Not nearly the case for Ranaudo, Webster or Workman.

KillerBs · Sep 8, 2014

On the offensive side of the ball, the conclusion that everything went wrong (to some extent) seems about right.

Comparing 2013 team splits by position to 2014, you see a significant reduction in production at all 9 spots.

c -- massive decline from 270/334/453 to 222/273/326 -- AJP acquisition fails, Ross declines and Vazquez not ready with the bat
1b -- significant decline from 262/361/480 to 237/353/385 -- Napoli aging/down year. Carp collapses
2b -- signficant decline from 302/372/424 to 275/335/372 -- Pedroia aging/down year
3b -- massive decline from bad 244/288/395 to terrible 206/266/296 -- WMB and XB totally inept at the plate
ss -- massive decline from 263/340/431 to 212/313/357 -- Drew collapses and Herrera stinks too
lf -- marginal decline from 278/356/434 to 260/330/379 -- Gomes and Nava take step back, esp. Gomes, Sizemore offers little
cf -- massive decline from 292/348/425 to 216/292/313 -- Bradley's ineptitude traded for Ellsbury's excellence
rf -- marginal decine from 285/350/436 to 262/318/376 -- Victorino's injury not quite set off by Holt's contribution.
dh -- signficant decline from 310/400/560 to 259/352/512 -- Papi aging/down year

In sum, all the vets went backwards (AJP, Napoli, Caro, Pedroia, Gomes, Nava, Victorino and Ortiz) and none of the kids save Holt could hit.

IOW, one year after everything went right, everything went (at least a bit) wrong. I think this distribution of fortune is itself fortunate, given the glory of 2013.

I wonder if this tells us something about a kids + vets strategy. I wouldn't read too much into it but I do note we had very few ABs this year from players 26 to 29 years of age.

Plympton91 · Sep 8, 2014

Now put down the spreadsheet and look at the stuff, and if you're going to look at a spreadsheet, at least look at xFIP complete stats and trends. Stuff doesn't always translate, and it certainly hasn't to date for Ruby, but he has at least 2 above average pitches when operating as a starter -- a 94+ FB and a changeup, whereas Workman has none. That K rate for De La Rosa is just inconsistent with his arsenal.

On the trends side, Ruby's control is vastly improved. He went from walking 4.6 per 9 in his last significant major league stint (in 2011 with the Dodgers) to 3.2 this year. Looking at the last two seasons, he went from 5.4 in 2013 at Pawtucket, to 3.8 in the first half of 2014 at Pawtucket, to 3.2 in the second half of 2014 major leagues. If an improvement in command follows the improvement in control, perhaps that will cause the strikeouts to jump as well. Workman's BB/9 showed some improvement in the minors from 2013 to 2014, when you account for jumping a level, but his 2013 to 2014 in the majors is basically the same.

He's also got a .321 BABip and 0.84 GB/FB ratio, whereas Workman's BABip is .281 and GB/FB ratio 0.68. So, to the extent you put stock in the reversion of BABip to a .300 average, and a generally higher BABip on groundballs than flyballs, it is De La Rosa who should improve a bit in that sphere, not Workman.

Workman's overall K and BB numbers in the majors this season are boosted a little bit by a 7 to 1 K/BB ratio in 6.1 relief innings; as a starter his K/BB is 54/29 in 72.2 innings.

To be positive about Workman, he has 38.1 IP as a reliever including the 2013 postseason, and in that time he has a K/9 above 9 and a BB/9 of 3.5. He was snakebitten by HR as a reliever last season (5), but if you assume that is supposed to normalize to a regular HR/FB rate (consistent with his overall line, 8.1%, to league avg, 7.3%), those 38.1 IP paint the picture of a very effective reliever, not somebody you're just burying at the back of the bullpen.

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