Our 9-1-2 hitters have wRC+ of 63, 50, and 57, respectively. That's going to hurt the offense. Have Pedroia and Hanley really "gone right," though? They seem healthy, which you can say bodes well for the future, but over the small sample size that is this season, they have underperformed (Pedroia has a wRC+ of 82, Hanley is at 98, but for a slightly below-average defensive 1B, that's not going to be much above replacement level).
Price, Ortiz, Shaw, Wright, and Holt are the only real 'success' guys I can see so far, everyone else is 'pending.'
There's no way to not have a small sample size after thirteen games. The guys who aren't performing are one or two good games away from having respectable numbers. There's just not much you can take from thirteen games worth of data. But:
David Ortiz looks healthy and productive.
Hanley Ramirez looks to be exceeding almost everyone's expectations in regards to first base defense, and if his offensive results haven't quite been as impressive as we'd like, he looks like he's doing all the things that he needs to do to have a productive offensive season. There's no indication that the shoulder thing has carried over to this season.
Dustin Pedroia looks like he has the healthiest hands he's had in three or four years.
Jackie Bradley doesn't look completely lost.
what's more, let's make the point that a lot of our losses have been, if you'll pardon the cliche, the kind of losses that a good team loses.
In other words, yes the number on the standings hasn't looked good but there's a few good trends going on here and I think that the team isn't in nearly as rough shape as the standings suggest.
Yes, this. In addition, if Carson Smith had been healthy from the get go, it's entirely possible our bullpen has one or two losses instead of four. That's not to say it's gone right, but an indication that things aren't as bad as they may look.
Begin think like Tom Werner: "It's Patriot's Day, David Ortiz' final Patriot's Day, and Farrell is sitting him? Did people come to Fenway to watch another game with the best team NOT on the field? Did they come to watch Clay effing Buccholz, Chris effing Young, Josh effing Rutledge, and Noe effing Ramirez? Who is the effing manager and why is he still employed by us?" End think like Tom Werner.
Why the hell would any of us want to think like Tom Werner?
Every team - even the very best teams - will go through 2-week stretches where they basically play around .500 ball, or even a little under. If it happens right away, it's panic time.
There's a lot to like so far, IMO. There's a lot NOT to like as well. It's early.
I must be misunderstanding. Every team--even the very best teams--will go through month long stretches where they basically play around .500 or a little under and you should no more panic because it happens in April than you should if it happens in July.
There are plenty of things that have gone wrong. Carson Smith's injury has probably already cost the team a win or two. Eduardo Rodriguez hasn't pitched yet. The entire rotation save Steven Wright has had at least one stinker of an outing, putting more strain on the bullpen than is preferable and contributing directly to four bullpen losses.
On the other hand, the things that have gone wrong don't look like they're structural problems so much as they are the kind of shit every team has to deal with every year. Everyone in the rotation save Joe Kelly has had at least one really good outing and there's no particular reason to believe the bad outing is more predictive than the good one. The sixth starter has performed well. The only members of the bullpen who haven't performed well overall are the ones that wouldn't have been there if Carson Smith and Eduardo Rodriguez hadn't been injured.
I think the goals for the rest of the month are clear.
Get Carson Smith and Eduardo Rodriguez healthy and on the 25 man roster.
Get Mookie Betts on track.
Finish the month (say through the Yankees series that ends on May 1) at 13-12 or better.
Winning two from Tampa, one in Houston, three v Atlanta, and two from the Yankees would put us at 14-11 and probably no more than 3 games back. That's not running away with the division, but it's certainly weathering the early storm and positioning the team for a competitive season.