The "On to Seattle" v. "Pumped and Jacked" thread seems likely to turn into a megathread, so maybe we can split out more focused discussions regarding each side of the ball and special teams. The Patriots offense versus the Seattle D and the Legion of Boom is the marquee matchup in this game. Seattle has a fantastic, maybe even historically good defense against which nobody can expect to have great success. But let me kick off the discussion by offering a couple thoughts on why we might match up better than most teams:
1. Seattle's pass defense is built around dominating the perimeter in the passing game, taking away the outside receivers and deep threats which are the prototypical #1 options for most teams in today's NFL, and forcing QBs to repeatedly connect on shorter passes to secondary and tertiary options, especially the TEs and the backs. But the Patriots offense is built to do exactly that: You're not going to find a better combination of TE, slot receiver, and pass catching RB in the NFL than Gronk/Edelman/Vereen. And Tom Brady is as good as anybody at identifying what the defense is going to give him, especially in terms of attacking zone defenses, and moving the ball up the field little chunk by little chunk with throws over the middle and into the flats. I don't think we can afford to give up entirely on the outside (especially with LaFell on Maxwell) and deep passing game as the field becomes too compressed. But I think a lot of this game will be decided over the middle and in the flats, where the trio of Gronk/Edelman/Vereen should be largely defended by the quartet of Chancellor/Wagner/Wright/Lane. Those guys on the other side are fantastic and they cover and tackle really well. But I like our chances as much as anybody, especially if we can stay out of 3rd and long (which is death against this defense IMO).
2. Seattle's DTs are poor overall. Its a much weaker group than last year after losing Clinton McDaniel to free agency and then having Brandon Mebane and Jordan Hill go down with injuries. There really aren't any dominant run defenders without Mebane and the team struggles to get push up the middle in the passing game unless they move Michael Bennett inside. The interior OL of the Patriots isn't exactly a strength either so I'm not expecting to dominate inside, but I'm not that worried about getting blown up inside in either the running or passing game in ways that could completely wreck the offensive gameplan. I think its a game where we can reasonably expect to have a little success running the ball and where Brady should often find a relatively clean pocket to climb and maneuver if pressure comes around the edge.
3. Seattle's run defense is fantastic but somewhat lopsided according to FO's statistics, stoning teams that run right and up the middle but only ranking in the middle of the pack against runs to the left end and off left tackle. I assume this is because the RDE is usually a lightweight player that isn't a great run defender and they no longer have Mebane at RDT dominating that side. GB had a good amount of success running off left tackle yesterday. Meanwhile, our offensive running game according to FO has been awful running down the middle but very good running off left tackle and left end (and outside in the other direction too). While I think our run/pass ratio will be skewed toward the pass, we're going to need to run the ball well enough to keep the defense honest and stay away from 3rd and longs. And our strengths in the running game might match up fairly well with their biggest weakness.
In sum, I think its going to be a fantastic matchup and its going to take both a great game plan from McDaniels and a very patient game from Brady - especially avoiding forcing throws downfield - for us to have success. But I feel like we have the tools, maybe moreso than any other team in the NFL, to do some damage against this defense. Nobody should be expecting 30+ points but that's not what we're likely to need to win the game.
What are your keys to the game from an offensive standpoint? I've written this from a Pats-centric perspective but I'd also love to hear the thoughts of our resident Seahawks fans on what they expect to see.
1. Seattle's pass defense is built around dominating the perimeter in the passing game, taking away the outside receivers and deep threats which are the prototypical #1 options for most teams in today's NFL, and forcing QBs to repeatedly connect on shorter passes to secondary and tertiary options, especially the TEs and the backs. But the Patriots offense is built to do exactly that: You're not going to find a better combination of TE, slot receiver, and pass catching RB in the NFL than Gronk/Edelman/Vereen. And Tom Brady is as good as anybody at identifying what the defense is going to give him, especially in terms of attacking zone defenses, and moving the ball up the field little chunk by little chunk with throws over the middle and into the flats. I don't think we can afford to give up entirely on the outside (especially with LaFell on Maxwell) and deep passing game as the field becomes too compressed. But I think a lot of this game will be decided over the middle and in the flats, where the trio of Gronk/Edelman/Vereen should be largely defended by the quartet of Chancellor/Wagner/Wright/Lane. Those guys on the other side are fantastic and they cover and tackle really well. But I like our chances as much as anybody, especially if we can stay out of 3rd and long (which is death against this defense IMO).
2. Seattle's DTs are poor overall. Its a much weaker group than last year after losing Clinton McDaniel to free agency and then having Brandon Mebane and Jordan Hill go down with injuries. There really aren't any dominant run defenders without Mebane and the team struggles to get push up the middle in the passing game unless they move Michael Bennett inside. The interior OL of the Patriots isn't exactly a strength either so I'm not expecting to dominate inside, but I'm not that worried about getting blown up inside in either the running or passing game in ways that could completely wreck the offensive gameplan. I think its a game where we can reasonably expect to have a little success running the ball and where Brady should often find a relatively clean pocket to climb and maneuver if pressure comes around the edge.
3. Seattle's run defense is fantastic but somewhat lopsided according to FO's statistics, stoning teams that run right and up the middle but only ranking in the middle of the pack against runs to the left end and off left tackle. I assume this is because the RDE is usually a lightweight player that isn't a great run defender and they no longer have Mebane at RDT dominating that side. GB had a good amount of success running off left tackle yesterday. Meanwhile, our offensive running game according to FO has been awful running down the middle but very good running off left tackle and left end (and outside in the other direction too). While I think our run/pass ratio will be skewed toward the pass, we're going to need to run the ball well enough to keep the defense honest and stay away from 3rd and longs. And our strengths in the running game might match up fairly well with their biggest weakness.
In sum, I think its going to be a fantastic matchup and its going to take both a great game plan from McDaniels and a very patient game from Brady - especially avoiding forcing throws downfield - for us to have success. But I feel like we have the tools, maybe moreso than any other team in the NFL, to do some damage against this defense. Nobody should be expecting 30+ points but that's not what we're likely to need to win the game.
What are your keys to the game from an offensive standpoint? I've written this from a Pats-centric perspective but I'd also love to hear the thoughts of our resident Seahawks fans on what they expect to see.