White Sox Fan Posting Here- Would you do this trade?

Would you trade Betts and Bogaerts straight up for Chris Sale tomorrow?

  • Yes

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • No

    Votes: 319 100.0%
  • I need more time think about it while eating a Fenway Frank

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    319
  • Poll closed .

Brian26

lurker
Nov 16, 2015
22
Hey Everyone,

White Sox fan here. I've been posting on WhitesoxInteractive for 15 years. I wanted to do a bit of a case study on how home teams covet their own players.

I posted this question, with a poll, on WSI just for fun. I was curious what the response would be. I asked White Sox fans if they would trade Chris Sale tomorrow straight-up for Bogaerts and Betts. I was a bit surprised at the response, as nearly 80% of the responses were no.

I'll ask the same question here.

Would you guys send Betts and Bogaerts straight up for Sale? I have a feeling I know what the response will be, but I'm curious about the numbers.
 

SydneySox

A dash of cool to add the heat
SoSH Member
Sep 19, 2005
15,547
The Eastern Suburbs
No. Most people wouldn't do Bogaerts straight up at the least.

Do you have a link to your thread? It would be interesting to see the reasoning behind your board's decision.
 

moondog80

heart is two sizes two small
SoSH Member
Sep 20, 2005
5,429
Hey Everyone,

White Sox fan here. I've been posting on WhitesoxInteractive for 15 years. I wanted to do a bit of a case study on how home teams covet their own players.

I posted this question, with a poll, on WSI just for fun. I was curious what the response would be. I asked White Sox fans if they would trade Chris Sale tomorrow straight-up for Bogaerts and Betts. I was a bit surprised at the response, as nearly 80% of the responses were no.

I'll ask the same question here.

Would you guys send Betts and Bogaerts straight up for Sale? I have a feeling I know what the response will be, but I'm curious about the numbers.
No. B & B are not lottery tickets, they're already very good major leaguers, with nine more years of control between them. I'll bet most here agree with me, if not all. The question should be whether or not we'd agree to trade just Betts alone for him -- I would in a heartbeat, but I'll bet many would not.
 

Minneapolis Millers

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
2,170
Twin Cities
Criminy. X just won a Silver Slugger and Betts is a top 15 or so OF already. Sale's great and cheap, but c'mon. It would be fine for White Sox fans to say no to either, but to both? Stupid.
 

moondog80

heart is two sizes two small
SoSH Member
Sep 20, 2005
5,429
You people who wouldn't trade X alone for him are just as insane as the White Sox fans who wouldn't trade Sale for both. Face of the franchise? I'm bullish on him, but Carlos Correa is a face of the franchise player. X is a guy who put up a 108 OPS+ on what may have been a lucky BABIP. He's a good bet to improve, but slow down.
 

Tharkin

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 11, 2006
1,408
Maine
Is there any single player worth both Betts and Bogaerts right now? Trout starts getting paid next year and becomes ungodly expensive in 2018. I don't think there's anyone else I'd even give a moment's thought about.
 

The_Powa_of_Seiji_Ozawa

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 9, 2006
5,994
SS Botany Bay
Hey Everyone,

White Sox fan here. I've been posting on WhitesoxInteractive for 15 years. I wanted to do a bit of a case study on how home teams covet their own players.

I posted this question, with a poll, on WSI just for fun. I was curious what the response would be. I asked White Sox fans if they would trade Chris Sale tomorrow straight-up for Bogaerts and Betts. I was a bit surprised at the response, as nearly 80% of the responses were no.

I'll ask the same question here.

Would you guys send Betts and Bogaerts straight up for Sale? I have a feeling I know what the response will be, but I'm curious about the numbers.
No. And incidentally, this has nothing to do with coveting our home grown players irrationally. So for the purposes of your study I'm not sure you'll find what you need here. Perhaps if you adjust your hypothetical to a more plausible scenario. For example, I was ok with the Kimbrel trade, even though I liked the prospects we traded and on paper seems like an overpay in that those assets probably could have helped net something more than a closer (albeit a premier closer). As others have already explained, it would be an incredibly illogical and impractical overpay for Sale. Now all things being equal, I might slightly prefer homegrown players just for sentimental purposes, but if a trade improves the club, at the end of the day most of us root for the laundry and would probably do it, perhaps a few exceptional cases excluded (i.e. nothing would ever get me to like AJ Pierzynski, I didn't want to see Nomar traded even though he got all moody, etc.)
 

redsox3g2

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2006
1,219
I think the only thing you got with this is proof the white Sox fans on your board don't know enough about betts and bogaerts, which is understandable after a year of playing mostly in last place (I know x has played longer). So that is probably a massive part of why fans favor their own players. I don't think I need to go into why, as it's covered above, but this would be an absurd trade.
 

Savin Hillbilly

loves the secret sauce
SoSH Member
Jul 10, 2007
18,781
The wrong side of the bridge....
It would be hard to turn down a deal of Sale for either Xander or Mookie one-up, though in Betts' case at least I think I might not be able to pull the trigger; after all, you could make an argument that Mookie is already in Sale's league value-wise (though less firmly established), and he's younger and cheaper.

But both of them? That's an extremely easy no.

EDIT: BTW, if you look at FG's trade value list, Sale is #6, Mookie #11 and Xander way down at #33. But that list was compiled at the All-Star break. Xander OPS'd .750 in the first half and .803 in the second. Mookie OPS'd .792 in the first half and .859 in the second. And Sale FIP'd 2.27 in the first half and 3.35 in the second.

So it's a pretty good bet that if the list could be recompiled today Mookie and Sale would be pretty close to neck and neck, and Xander would have made up some ground as well. Of course that list is not gospel, but it least it has an objective methodology to it.
 
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kazuneko

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 10, 2006
1,983
Honolulu HI
Yeah, I don't think you are going to get one "yes" vote on this one. I don't think you'd even get a single "yes" if you exchanged one of Betts or X for Swihart. The best the White Sox could possibly hope for is one of those players - two just isn't going to happen. The more interesting question is what percentage of SOSH members would agree to trade either X or Betts straight up for Sale. Don't think many would - but more than the 0% response you're going to get with this proposal...
 

Brian26

lurker
Nov 16, 2015
22
No. And incidentally, this has nothing to do with coveting our home grown players irrationally. So for the purposes of your study I'm not sure you'll find what you need here.
I'm comparing this to White Sox fans coveting Chris Sale and telling me I'm crazy to consider trading him for Betts and Bogaerts. Two different fanbases, two entirely polar-opposite opinions. Is the truth somewhere in the middle?
 

Turrable

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 12, 2011
2,670
This is awesome

1) It would be another PR disaster for the organization.
2) It would be a bad trade for the White Sox.
3) I wish they would make some kind of major trade as soon as possible. I hope they have no intentions of running out the same team next season. The team could not hit. They need to find some hitters.
 

williams_482

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 1, 2011
391
Is there any single player worth both Betts and Bogaerts right now? Trout starts getting paid next year and becomes ungodly expensive in 2018. I don't think there's anyone else I'd even give a moment's thought about.
That's an interesting question.

Trout is going to be 24 next season. In his career, he has averaged 8.7 fWAR / 8.6 rWAR per 650 PAs, and steamer is projecting him for 9.2 fWAR in 2016. He is going to be paid $139.3M over the next five years. That is a ton of money, but it is fraction of what he would get on the open market.

When Dave Cameron did his trade value series this summer, he got ZiPS projections for the 2016-2020 seasons of everyone on the list. Although things have changed since then, these 2016 projections and the most recent Steamer projections are close enough that I'm not too worried about underselling Betts or Bogaerts. Trout was projected at +47.0 WAR, Betts at +26.7, Bogaerts at +20.1 (+15.8 in his four years of team control). With the massive error bars involved in a 5 year projection that is really, really close. Financially, three years of pre-arb plus six years of arbitration might work out to something in the area of $70M if we are generous ($5M arb1, $10M arb2, $15M arb3, plus an extra $10M padding just to be safe), half of what Trout is being paid. Mike Trout is both an amazing player and a severely underpaid one, but this isn't even close in terms of overall value.

For reference, Chris Sale is signed for $47.2M over the next four years (counting his two no-brainer option years). He is projected to produce +23.8 wins in that time period. Once again long term projections have large error bars: I wouldn't fault someone for picking Sale over Betts on the basis of short term value and extra importance of an ace starter in the playoffs, but I am struggling to construct a good argument in favor of Sale over both Betts and Bogaerts.
 

nvalvo

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
17,180
Rogers Park
I'm comparing this to White Sox fans coveting Chris Sale and telling me I'm crazy to consider trading him for Betts and Bogaerts. Two different fanbases, two entirely polar-opposite opinions. Is the truth somewhere in the middle?
Maybe different franchise circumstances are a factor. Boston is always up against the soft cap, payroll wise, and so the 8-10 WAR Mookie and Xander should accrue together, health willing, for $1m is really the reason our team has a prayer of contending next season. The White Sox' budget is a bit more nebulous — I think? I'm not saying the White Sox have no budget restrictions; I'm saying the fans maybe don't have as good an idea of what it is. Or maybe its just that I don't.

Sale is on a great contract, without question, but there's *no way* he could be as good in terms of cost per WAR as those two.

The other thing is that we're accustomed to dreaming on the upside of Mookie and Xander. Both guys have MVP type ceilings (at least in a year Mike Trout gets mononucleosis or something) assuming the considerable power Xander showed in the minors eventually appears at this level. In contrast, Sale, a fully realized Cy Young contender, is all downside risk: it would be hard to get much better, and I think people worry that, with his unorthodox mechanics, he might find himself on the Tim Lincecum career trajectory.

(I just moved to Chicago this year and went to the Cell for the first time this summer. I enjoyed it a lot!)
 

kazuneko

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 10, 2006
1,983
Honolulu HI
If Betts was swapped out for JBJ does that change any opinions?
I'm guessing that Xander straight up for Sale (which would probably be hated by both fan bases but might actually be a pretty fair trade) would only be supported by about 5%...
 
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AlNipper49

Huge Member
Dope
Apr 3, 2001
40,680
Mtigawi
I would do X straight up for Sale in a cocaine heartbeat. Folks love X but I honestly think most of the Sox fans that I know would be fine without after the dust settled.

It would never happen though, outside of Donaldson what cost controlled superstar has been traded recently? You'd have to have an extreme need matched up perfectly between two teams or have one team back up the Brinks truck and pour all of their prospects out (as Toronto did with Donaldson)
 

MikeM

Member
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May 27, 2010
2,923
Florida
I'd hypothetically trade X straight up for Sale as well, but the backfill plan would first need to be a heck of lot better then handing the job to Marrero. Or signing one of this year's offensive free agents to an overpay contract in an effort to make up the difference elsewhere.
 

Flunky

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Jan 3, 2009
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CT
unfortunately this is the wrong year to ask this question given the FA's available. it'd be an overpay for both but one plus others not so much - I think X or Betts alone for Sale would be a steal for the Red Sox.
 

Hank Scorpio

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 1, 2013
5,504
As incredibly good as Sale is, I wouldn't trade X for him straight up - right now. With Price, Cueto, Greinke and Zimmermann all available for just money, I don't see a pressing "need" to deal X for Sale. I'd rather sign one of those FA guys, and then if you want to further improve the rotation, trade someone less than X for someone less than Sale.

Betts for Sale makes more sense from a roster standpoint, especially if you're able to go out and sign Alex Gordon on a 3-4 year deal as a very good bridge to Benintendi and still bring in say Jordan Zimmerman, and maybe trade Miley for a cost-controlled, semi-premier bullpen arm.

C: Swihart
1B: Hanley
2B: Pedroia
SS: X
3B: Sandoval
LF: Castillo
CF: JBJ
RF: Gordon
DH: Ortiz
Hanigan, Shaw, Holt, 4th OFer

Sale
Zimmermann
Buchholz
Rodriguez
Porcello

Kimbrel
Uehara
Tazawa
Whoever we get for Miley
Ross
Kelly
Layne

I love both X and Mookie, but I do think Mookie is easier to somewhat replace right now. Of course, if all this was possible, it probably would have happened by now, and I suspect any Mookiecentric package involving Sale is probably going to include enough top prospects (Benintendi and/or Devers and/or Moncada) to turn DD's stomach.
 

Minneapolis Millers

Member
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Jul 15, 2005
2,170
Twin Cities
I realize we're talking hypothetically, but I don't think DD would have dealt Margot for a closer if he were willing to deal Betts for a SP. Besides, I'm sure DD gets the valuations discussed upthread. Betts straight up for Sale is an iffy value bet, one that creates other roster issues.

One other option if we traded X: sign Desmond. He's not as good as Alex Gordon but he'll likely cost less. And no, I'm not advocating trading X. But X for Sale would be a decent value bet for us. It'd be more plausible, though, if Marrero projected to be a solid .700+ OPS guy (if we had a viable replacement for X in house).
 

Savin Hillbilly

loves the secret sauce
SoSH Member
Jul 10, 2007
18,781
The wrong side of the bridge....
Betts for Sale makes more sense from a roster standpoint, especially if you're able to go out and sign Alex Gordon on a 3-4 year deal as a very good bridge to Benintendi and still bring in say Jordan Zimmerman, and maybe trade Miley for a cost-controlled, semi-premier bullpen arm.
This would be silly. The only possible point of trading somebody like Betts or Bogaerts for a top starter is so that you can avoid giving that kind of contract to a 30-year-old pitcher. Doing both would be just plain nuts. Our pitching isn't that bad, and this isn't fantasy baseball. The Sox need one top arm for the rotation. Giving up the resources it would take to add more than that would weaken the team more than it would add.
 

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

has big, douchey shoulders
Lifetime Member
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I hope this dispels the notion folks have here at SoSH that Chris Sale for Blake Swihart, Rafael Devers, and Henry Owens would be an acceptable trade from the White Sox perspective.
While I agree that this wouldn't be an acceptable return for the White Sox, it certainly has nothing to do with the results of a fan poll
 

TheoShmeo

Skrub's sympathy case
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Jul 19, 2005
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I was loving the results of the poll until now.

And would be interested to read the rationale behind that yes vote (assuming it was not a joke).

Edit: Looks like that yes vote was retracted or I was hallucinating. Either is possible.
 
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cheekydave

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 11, 2004
3,023
Bohoken
Been on this board since 2003 and I have never EVER seen 163 people all agree on one thing. Though bet someone posts a contrarian vote just for the heck of it soon.
 

RIFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
2,177
Blackstone MA
Reading that board I can only assume some read it as Betts OR Bogaerts. It would be insanity to trade both for a pitcher - any pitcher. Swap a 26 YO Tim Lincecum for Sale in this scenario and would you do it? The odds are that two positional players that have posted the results Betts and Bogaerts have at their ages will provide more value over the next 5+ years than Sale will just do to the natural risk that exists with CY level pitchers being able to maintain that level.
 

PrometheusWakefield

Nasty, brutish, and short
SoSH Member
May 25, 2009
9,269
Boston, MA
The 2 biggest problems with this offer are:

1. Reports indicate we could get Harvey for Boegarts alone;
2. DD is on record saying we're going to acquire a top of the rotation starter via free agency.

Both of these options are obviously far, far better than the trade proposed here. Obviously spending some of JWH's money on Price is a much better option for the Sox then Sale.
 

djhb20

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Feb 7, 2004
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Honestly, this is a not good poll question for estimating how much we overvalue our own players (and of course we do).

I don't think you could find one reasonably intelligent (unbiased) baseball person who would trade Betts AND Boegarts for Sale. Try putting this poll up at a Twins site or a Pirates site or something. You'd get something close to 100% no there, too.

Or ask them to choose between adding Betts and Boegarts at their current contract/control years or adding Sale under his contract. Again, it would be all but unanimous.
 

Minneapolis Millers

Member
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Jul 15, 2005
2,170
Twin Cities
Well, the Twins wouldn't want the White Sox to trade Sale because they OWNED him this year (6 G v. MN, 1-4, 7.36 ERA) :behave. Otherwise, I'm not sure their fans would care that much about a Sox-sox trade. ;) A Sale trade for Sano-Buxton, on the other hand, yeah, not happening.
 

Devizier

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Jul 3, 2000
12,158
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It would be hard to trade one of the two for Sale, never mind both.

All else being equal, I would always take positional players over pitchers, given the risk involved in the latter.
 

snowmanny

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 8, 2005
11,183
I would do the Bogaerts for Sale trade and I think most would, despite the fact that a majority of the comments say no. They both have four years remaining and Sale is the rarer commodity. I wouldn't do Betts/Sale. Betts has that fifth year and might be extendable and I think he's just that good and that important to the team*. Bogaerts + JBJ or Swihart would be very very tough to do but I'd be open to persuasion.

X/Mookie is nuts.

In the Trade Rumor thread Snodgrass called Sale the single most valuable asset in baseball so I'd be interested in his take.

*I might be persuaded on Betts. It's really hard for me to imagine trading him, though.
 
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Rasputin

Will outlive SeanBerry
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Oct 4, 2001
29,159
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I'm not trading any current major leaguer or stud prospects for any pitcher as long as there are more high quality free agent pitchers available than at any time in recorded history.
 

chrisfont9

Member
SoSH Member
Betts was a 6.0 bWAR player in 2015 and is a free agent in 2021. Bogaerts was a 4.6 win player this year and is ours thru 2020. Sale was a 3.3 win player this year, though he peaked at 6.9 bWAR two years ago. He's controllable through 2018. So via the simplest assumptions possible -- continued performance based on 2015 until free agency -- you are talking about trading close to 50 bWAR for somewhere between 10-20 bWAR (using Sale's 2015 and 2013 numbers).