Who is the Half-Season Red Sox MVP?

[Darnell's Son]

Yesterday abs wrote up a breakdown of Boston's first half, and today he has who he believes carried the team's offense and pitching staff through the first 81 games of the 2016 season.

So what does SoSH say? Is there even a MVP? Or are Farrell's boners the LVP to rule them all?

 

[Pegleg]

Ortiz

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Ortiz. X a close second. Wright for pitching.

 

[mikeford]

I think, for all the tremendous work Ortiz and X do every day, that it still has to be Wright. He's been the only consistently good starter we've had all year.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

I think you could say any of Ortiz or the Three B's. I'm going to say JBJ, only because I think he came into the season as a huge question mark and has answered the questions so decisively. X has been what we were fairly sure he could be, Mookie has been what we were fairly sure he could be. JBJ has been what we hoped he could be, but weren't sure at all. What he has added by being so outstanding at the plate (and his defense is rapidly catching up) is hard to overestimate.

 

[Rovin Romine]

I think, for all the tremendous work Ortiz and X do every day, that it still has to be Wright. He's been the only consistently good starter we've had all year.

He's got 108 innings in 16 starts for 6.75 innings average. He's had 4 sub-6 inning games, as opposed to 8 games where he's finished the 7th inning or better (including 3 complete games). His only bad game was 4.1 IP, 5 ER against Houston on May 16.

Price has 4 sub-6 inning games, and 10 games where he's finished the 7th or better (no complete games). But Price has had 3 "lose it by yourself games" - 2.1 IP, 6 ER v. Texas June 24, 3.2 IP, 8 ER v. TB April 21, 4.2 IP, 6 ER v. NYY May 7.

Porcello has 3 sub-6 inning games, but only 3 were he's finished 7 innings (no complete games, no shockingly bad ones.)

 

[RedOctober3829]

It has to be Ortiz. At his age to be putting up the numbers he has is incredible. Betts and Bogaerts are what we thought they were going to be. Bradley has added another solid bat to the lineup to lengthen it. On the pitching staff, Wright is the obvious choice.

 

[mwonow]

Adding another vote for Papi

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

My vote's for Wright.

The number of games this season he's saved a wiped-out bullpen -- in addition to his overall excellent numbers -- has been phenomenally valuable to this team, especially considering what the rest of the starters have done.

It's seems almost unbelievable that arguments for his eventual demotion to swingman continued around here through late April.

 

[Hee Sox Choi]

Sandy Leon

 

[E5 Yaz]

Ortiz

 

[Al Zarilla]

Betts, for hitting exceedingly well at the leadoff position, a position the Red Sox have had trouble with for years, outside of when Ellsbury was here. Actually, his numbers are great no matter where he might be hitting. Also, he's been a plus fielder at probably the hardest fielding position at Fenway, allowing the veteran Pedroia to stay at the only position in which he can excel. Mookie.

Ed., also the best base stealer on the team.

 

[koufax32]

No votes for JBJ? I agree that Papi and Wright have probably contributed slightly more but between the 900+ ops and the improvement in his defense to last year norms (at least to the eye) he deserves some mention.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Betts, for hitting exceedingly well at the leadoff position, a position the Red Sox have had trouble with for years, outside of when Ellsbury was here.

Johnny Damon didn't get it done for you?

 

[dbn]

By my calculations if Holt hadn’t gotten hurt the Sox would have almost certainly finished 2016 with a 141-21 record. That would likely win the AL East title...

Fantastic

 

[dbn]

Sandy Leon

He does sport a 226 OPS+ and a 11.1 bWAR/162.

 

[Al Zarilla]

Johnny Damon didn't get it done for you?

Sure, but he goes back > a decade.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Xander.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

No votes for JBJ? I agree that Papi and Wright have probably contributed slightly more but between the 900+ ops and the improvement in his defense to last year norms (at least to the eye) he deserves some mention.

Yes. Yes he does.

 

[santadevil]

I like the choice in the article.

 

[phenweigh]

If Brock Holt can be considered a legit candidate, my vote goes to Travis Shaw. The value to this board in ending the Fat Panda posts is enormous.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

If Brock Holt can be considered a legit candidate, my vote goes to Travis Shaw. The value to this board in ending the Fat Panda posts is enormous.

Come to think of it, you're absolutely right. The season so far has been blissfully Panda-free, and while Pablo has made his own inimitable contribution to that cause, it was Shaw who got the ball rolling by outplaying him in March. That's worth, like, 10 eWAR (emotional wins above replacement) right there.

 

[geoduck no quahog]

Literally MVP should stand for the player whose presence single-handedly led to the most wins. That's the "most valuable", not necessarily the best. By that definition, pitchers have a huge edge since they have the greatest single impact on the game. But fuck that, I'm going to name 2:

Offense: Ortiz. Period. He leads the team in RBI's. He leads the team in OBP (providing added opportunity for the guys behind him to drive in runs). He leads the team in slugging (including doubles) - providing even better opportunity to score more runs. If David Ortiz had David Ortiz hitting behind him he'd have probably scored 100 by now. He makes the 1-3 hitters better because he scares the shit out of the opposition. David Ortiz.

Defense: Kimbrel. Period. Without him lurking at the back of the bullpen who knows what the team's record would be today. 17 of 19 save opportunities (I know). Looking at his body of work as a whole (despite the failures) he's striking out 48 guys in in 32 innings with a BAA of 183. Without Kimbrel the back of the bullpen would be Tazawa, Uehara and ??? There's no question in my mind that he's the most valuable pitcher under the premise of what the team's record might be without him. Craig Kimbrel.

Overall MVP: Kimbrel

 

[nvalvo]

As good as Bogaerts and Ortiz have been, I'm with Bradley. I think UZR's selling him short. 140 wRC+ from CF, second on the team to our All-Star DH.

 

[Sampo Gida]

I agree on Wright being the MVP of the pitching staff. I suspect it will be David Price in the 2nd half though. It needs to be.

On the position player side, well, I can't agree with Holt being MVP. His absence and the subsequent poor play of the team had more to do with the schedule toughening up and some hot hitters cooling off IMO. Chris Young did a pretty good job filling in for him and was the teams hottest hitter for much of June. There are actually so many contributors I can't name an MVP. Choose one of Papi, Bradley, Betts or Boegarts. I'd have Pedey in there if not for all the GIDP. Shaw for not being Panda, and Hanley for not being the guy he was last year all get honorable mentions.

In the 2nd half, I think we need Papi to be hitting balls out of the park like he did the first 2 months of the season when I felt he was the MVP. Only 3 HR the last month. Hopefully thats not because of his achilles, but I fear it may be. He needs to be the man in the 2nd half.

 

[glasspusher]

In that I can't honestly ever vote for a DH or a pitcher for MVP, I vote for Xander.

</sarcasm>

 

[Auger34]

The top 4 in some order have to be Ortiz, Wright, Bradley and Bogaerts. I'll go with Wright just because the starting pitching other than him has been such a disaster but you could make convincing arguments for all 4 of them

 

[Zososoxfan]

Can people explain why they would consider X the midseason MVP over Bradley? Papi is a bit trickier due to DH, so leave him aside for the moment. Bradley had lower expectations coming in, both play premium defensive positions, but Bradley's slugging is ~75 points higher and his OPS+ is 141 compared to X's 127. X does have a slightly higher OBP, fewer strikeouts, and some more SB, but it seems to me that the difference in slugging should outweigh the other metrics.

On the pitching side, it has to be Wright IMO. The consideration of expectations comes into it for me, but regardless, his ERA+ is better than any other starter, FIP comparable to Price (who leads among starters), 2nd among starter WHIP (to Porcello), and the best H9 of any starter by a fairly large margin. The walks are certainly an issue, but he is second only to Price on SO.

Between Bradley and Wright, I'm taking Wright. Bradley has been incredibly valuable, but the lineup would be OK if he was merely good instead of allstar caliber. Wright has given the pitching staff a puncher's chance of staying balanced and rested while the 4 and 5 slot keep throwing up on themselves.

 

[j44thor]

I'm going to give a slight edge to JBJ who has been incredibly consistent, .800+ OPS in every month, over Ortiz simply because of the defensive value. Not to mention JBJ has put up his .900+ OPS hitting throughout the lineup. Ortiz has been the centerpiece of the offense so I'd have him 2nd followed by X and Wright.

 

[DanoooME]

My vote goes to JBJ for the reasons already noted above, plus imagine the cataclysm it would have caused to have him suck like the last two years. You thought there were OF issues before, imagine having Mookie and two messes to clean up instead of one.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Can people explain why they would consider X the midseason MVP over Bradley? Papi is a bit trickier due to DH, so leave him aside for the moment. Bradley had lower expectations coming in, both play premium defensive positions, but Bradley's slugging is ~75 points higher and his OPS+ is 141 compared to X's 127. X does have a slightly higher OBP, fewer strikeouts, and some more SB, but it seems to me that the difference in slugging should outweigh the other metrics.

Perhaps because while "both play premium defensive positions," Xander's is generally considered the most difficult of all. Also, Xander has been the better baserunner of the two, though they've both been above average.

Xander vs. JBJ is an interesting case study in the perils of using short-term advanced defensive metrics to evaluate performance. According to UZR, Xander has been a +2.8 shortstop so far, while JBJ has been a -0.7 CF. But if you move to the DRS column, suddenly JBJ is +3 and Xander is the worst defensive player on the team by a considerable margin, at -7. That's remarkable: DRS is saying that JBJ's defense has been a whole win better than Xander's. To me they've both looked pretty average on D, the main difference being that that's what we expect from Xander, while it's a disappointment from JBJ.

FWIW, BBref's WAR formula has Betts as the best player on the team so far, followed by Papi, JBJ, and Xander in that order. FG says Xander, Ortiz, Betts, JBJ. I really think the four of them have contributed nearly indistinguishable value so far, so it boils down to whose contribution you think has been most surprising or exciting or whatever subjective yardstick you like.

 

[PapaSox]

Ortiz & Wright.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

If you eliminate steroid users and the Coors Field effect (Larry Walker and Todd Helton, I'm looking at you), and the season ended today, Ortiz' 1.104 OPS would be one of the 5 highest in the past like 70 years. I realize it's the easy answer, so I hope most folks are just trying to find other choices for discussion sake, but he's not just having a good year, he's arguably having a historic year. He shouldn't just be the MVP of the Red Sox, IMO, he's the MVP of the entire American League.

And every time he does something great, I quietly weep to myself that this is the end. Unless he's announced he's coming back and I missed it, I'm curious what amount of money people here would offer him to come back. I'm seriously thinking that I wouldn't have an issue with the Sox throwing $40,000,000 at him for another year. Maybe more. Sure, it may be an overpay, and those resources can likely be better spent elsewhere, but fuck it. It ain't my money and it's David Fucking Ortiz. He means so damn much to this team and this city that I'm not sure you can overpay him when he's continuing to produce like this.

 

[PapaSox]

If you eliminate steroid users and the Coors Field effect (Larry Walker and Todd Helton, I'm looking at you), and the season ended today, Ortiz' 1.104 OPS would be one of the 5 highest in the past like 70 years. I realize it's the easy answer, so I hope most folks are just trying to find other choices for discussion sake, but he's not just having a good year, he's arguably having a historic year. He shouldn't just be the MVP of the Red Sox, IMO, he's the MVP of the entire American League.

And every time he does something great, I quietly weep to myself that this is the end. Unless he's announced he's coming back and I missed it, I'm curious what amount of money people here would offer him to come back. I'm seriously thinking that I wouldn't have an issue with the Sox throwing $40,000,000 at him for another year. Maybe more. Sure, it may be an overpay, and those resources can likely be better spent elsewhere, but fuck it. It ain't my money and it's David Fucking Ortiz. He means so damn much to this team and this city that I'm not sure you can overpay him when he's continuing to produce like this.

Jerry had a cab ride with David about a week ago, heading from the hotel to Fenway and David said he's made up his mind and its time to retire. He told Jerry that things are going great but he is dealing with all sorts of small aches and pains and he'd like to enjoy the season and finally rest. Jerry seemed to think that Ortiz has had enough, knows he's going out big and he's okay with retiring. Jerry did say Ortiz would love to go out with another ring but that would just be the perfect ending to his career.

 

[simplicio]

His name's David Fucking Ortiz
He'll retire whenever he please
To have functional heels
Not a chair on four wheels
For his Cooperstown ceremonies.