Who's Your choice for Sox Top of the Rotation Ace?

[bankshot1]

Ben moves fast or he had done a lot of work on the starter trades before the Lester decision came down. But for all his hard work, it seems we have a staff of four #3s and no real Ace, and in rebuilding the staff there is a hole in the top of the rotation.
 
1-???
2-Buchholz
3-Porcello
4-Miley
5-Kelly
6-AAA guy
 
So with a fair amount of financial flexibility and a quiver full of highly regarded prospects, how does Ben fill the hole?.
 
Pursue the best FA on the market Max Scherzer under the assumption that choice may be for 7/8 years at about a $28 million AAV.
 
Pursue free-agent James Shields, lets assume he could be had for 5/110.
 
Cole Hamels can be had in a trade. Lets assume his cost is 2 high ceiling prospects plus his 5/114 contract (5th year option guaranteed) 
 
Johnny Cueto. He's a free agent in 2016 so he's basically a 1 year rental, but may cost 2 prospects but his contract for 2015 is 10 million.
 
Or there may be other choices, like Jordan Zimmerman. 
 
Or Ben could do nothing, and fill the rotation with try-outs and hope that internal candidates like Owens or Ranaudo fill out the rotation.
 
You're Ben Cherington, what do you advise your bosses is the best course to take?

 

[Kliq]

Ryan Zimmerman would be a shitty choice to lead our staff, and Pablo Sandoval is already at third. Now Jordan Zimmerman...

 

[foulkehampshire]

Or there may be other choices, like Ryan Zimmerman. 

 
His arm is so bad that he has to move to 1B. Are you sure you want him as a #1?

 

[MakMan44]

Considering what'll take to get them, I went with James Shields. In a vacuum, I'd want Cueto but I don't see it happening. 

 

[bsj]

I'd love to see a move for Jordan Zimmerman. I would trade more to get him than anyone else on the list. 

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

 
His arm is so bad that he has to move to 1B. Are you sure you want him as a #1?

He goes on cold streaks too. And yeah the shoulder issues make me nervous. I'll pass...

My vote is for both Hamels and Shields. Do this right.

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

The problem with the options is that they all have caveats .. maybe the FA options should have included a "On a 2015 Market Rate Deal" . Likewise the trade options are all dependent on what we would have to give up.

 

[bankshot1]

Ryan Zimmerman would be a shitty choice to lead our staff, and Pablo Sandoval is already at third. Now Jordan Zimmerman...

 
And I would suck at making a trade.
 
edited

 

[gammoseditor]

I think Jordan Zimmermann is much more likely to be traded before the season than Cueto now that Latos and Simon have been moved.  Although I don't think either would be cheap or likely, both would be great.  I think Cueto is a very interesting trade deadline candidate.
 
I voted Hamels because I think we could get him for Owens and depth prospects like Cecchini.  I don't have a strong preference for Hamels over the money for Shields and I think they're the two most likely.  

 

[smastroyin]

The biggest problem is that we don't know the prices.
 
First choice would be Scherzer, in a vacuum.  But if he goes for more than Lester, then I would pass.  It seems likely he will go for more than Lester.
Second choice would be Hamels, but that depends on the prospect cost.  Maybe with the Dodgers signing McCarthy for 4 years they will be out on Hamels.  That would help a lot in terms of prospect cost.  If you can get Hamels without giving up Betts/Bogaerts/Swihart I do it (yes I'm happy to change Owens into Hamels).  I don't think that is possible right now though.
 
So, third choice is Shields and I think there are competitive with that rotation.

 

[timlinin8th]

Could trading for Cueto be contingent on being able to extend him right away? Yes you'd have to give up prospects instead of waiting until he hits FA, but it also nets an exclusive negotiating period... the Sox have both money and depth, have an immediate need, and Cueto is probably the best player available. If the Sox table a contract similar to what Lester and Scherzer are getting, that could be attractive to Cueto's camp.

 

[67WasBest]

I know I'm likely a minority of 1 for this, but I see them doing something like::
 
Bogaerts, Buchholz, Cecchini and Owens for Chris Sale and Alexi Ramirez.
 
Been seeing it all offseason and not moving off it now.

 

[derekson]

Apparently Cherington's answer to this question is Justin Masterson.

People seem to think Kelly or someone else will end up on the move for Hamels or something but I think this move is it and we have our 2015 rotation. I can't say I'm impressed.

 

[NJ_Sox_Fan]

Probably can take Cueto off since Latos was just traded to Miami.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Given that the Reds have moved Latos and Simon today, I don't think Cueto is going anywhere.  I doubt the asking price for Hamels is going to change significantly, so I really don't see that happening either.  So, given the options, I picked Shields.
 
But I also think it's likely that the next Red Sox "ace #1 frontline" starter is either in the minors or will be available on the free agent market next winter.

 

[mr_smith02]

I'd love to see a move for Jordan Zimmerman. I would trade more to get him than anyone else on the list. 

Agreed

 

[HangingW/ScottCooper]

Probably can take Cueto off since Latos was just traded to Miami.

I would think the opposite. Cueto is most definitely available.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

If I had to guess, I'd expect that Ben is not going to add a #1 at the moment and see what becomes available at the deadline, or when prices drop.
 
After all - without looking into it - isn't Porcello, Buchholz, Miley, Kelly, and 5th person to be determined (Masterson, Ranaudo, etc.) at least as good if not better than what the Orioles threw out there last year?

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I would think the opposite. Cueto is most definitely available.

 
How do you work that out?  All rumors and reports were that the Reds wanted to move a starter for salary reasons.  They've moved two today.  They are a team that can contend in the Central...they're not moving 60% of their rotation when they can contend in 2015.

 

[dylanmarsh]

Probably can take Cueto off since Latos was just traded to Miami.

 
I wouldn't write-off Cueto.  The Reds have several bad contracts making salary jumps in 2016, including Chapman going into his 3rd arbitration.  I would not be surprised if the Reds are looking for cost-controlled players to mitigate the bad contracts.  Joe Kelly, JBJ, WMB, Nava and others make a lot of sense for them.  I imagine some combination could get Cueto here since Shark was had for similar players.

 

[IdiotKicker]

From that list, Shields and Hamels make the most sense as Hamels is a 4-year deal and I would imagine you could get Shields in that range as well. This is big because a number of your young players are going to start hitting later arb years or be looking for extensions, and you're not going to want cash tied up during that time. So while part of me says spend a shitload for Scherzer, I don't think that makes any sense given where the rest of this team is likely heading, so I would like to keep things to 4 years in that role if possible. I could be swayed if Scherzer isn't as expense as we think he is, but I have a feeling that contract is going to be much bigger than anyone wants.

 

[pdub]

I think we can take Cueto out of the equation, the Reds have traded Matt Latos and Alfredo Simon today. My pick would be Hamels, depending on what it takes to acquire him (I'd build a deal around Owens and Cecchini). 

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

I voted for Cueto but agree that he's not likely available after the Reds' recent trades.  Hamels is my 2d choice.

 

[HangingW/ScottCooper]

 
How do you work that out?  All rumors and reports were that the Reds wanted to move a starter for salary reasons.  They've moved two today.  They are a team that can contend in the Central...they're not moving 60% of their rotation when they can contend in 2015.

The Reds are the worst team in their division. The Cubs finished three games behind them last year, the Cubs have gotten better and the Reds have gotten worse. If they can find a taker for the remaining 16 years on Votto's contract they'd do that as well.

 

[Hee Sox Choi]

The Reds are the worst team in their division. The Cubs finished three games behind them last year, the Cubs have gotten better and the Reds have gotten worse. If they can find a taker for the remaining 16 years on Votto's contract they'd do that as well.

Oh my goodness gracious, you weren't kidding about Votto:  15:$14M, 16:$20M, 17:$22M, 18-23:$25M annually, 24:$20M club option ($7M buyout)

 

[JimD]

If the Sox can acertain via back channels that Cueto would be willing to sign an extension, I think they should go big and make a serious run at him.

 

[ivanvamp]

If I had to guess, I'd expect that Ben is not going to add a #1 at the moment and see what becomes available at the deadline, or when prices drop.
 
After all - without looking into it - isn't Porcello, Buchholz, Miley, Kelly, and 5th person to be determined (Masterson, Ranaudo, etc.) at least as good if not better than what the Orioles threw out there last year?

 
It's potentially *excellent* and potentially problematic.  Let's take the best years of these guys from the last few seasons (so it's not like we need to delve into the distant, unrelated past):
 
Buchholz (2013) - 108.1 ip, 1.74 era, 237 era+, 1.03 whip, 8.0 k/9
Porcello (2014) - 204.2 ip, 3.43 era, 116 era+, 1.23 whip, 5.7 k/9
Miley (2012) - 194.2 ip, 3.33 era, 122 era+, 1.18 whip, 6.7 k/9
Kelly (2013) - 124.0 ip, 2.69 era, 140 era+, 1.36 whip, 5.7 k/9
Masterson (2013) - 193.0 ip, 3.45 era, 110 era+, 1.20 whip, 9.1 k/9
 
Now, obviously it won't work out that all five of them perform to their peak.  But the point is that they all have the capability of it.  They also have the capability of not being very good.  Perhaps for balance it may be helpful to post a recent bad season from each of them?  Ok….ouch...
 
Buchholz (2014) - 170.1 ip, 5.34 era, 72 era+, 1.39 whip, 7.0 k/9
Porcello (2012) - 176.1 ip, 4.59 era, 93 era+, 1.53 whip, 5.5 k/9
Miley (2014) - 201.1 ip, 4.34 era, 86 era+, 1.40 whip, 8.2 k/9
Kelly (2014) - 96.1 ip, 4.20 era, 91 era+, 1.35 whip, 6.2 k/9
Masterson (2014) - 128.2 ip, 5.88 era, 63 era+, 1.63 whip, 8.1 k/9
 
So they have a real possibility of this being a bad rotation.  But it'll probably fall somewhere in-between, which will mean a rotation of slightly above average starters.  Combine that with a (presumably) good offense and defense, and a good bullpen, and that's a pretty good team.

 

[Hee Sox Choi]

If the Sox can acertain via back channels that Cueto would be willing to sign an extension, I think they should go big and make a serious run at him.

 

[ifmanis5]

Contreras. I think we can win that one this time.

 

[Pedro 4 99MVP]

I voted for Hamels, but I agree with many other posters who say that this is a really difficult question to answer without knowing the cost. If we could get Zimmerman or Cueto without including Betts, Bogaerts or Swihart AND we could sign them long term, then 1 of those 2 would be my first choice.
 
I went with Hamels because he is signed long term for a reasonable contract, and I believe that eventually Amaro will realize the Sox are serious about not trading Betts, Bogaerts, Swihart. Now that the Dodgers have signed McCarthy and seem to have a full rotation, I don't think there are many teams with the financial flexibility and the prospects to offer anything better than Owens and a couple other B prospects who we don't mind giving up. Owens, Marrero (Rollins replacement), Cecchini or Coyle, maybe a 2nd arm that isn't top 10. We have enough prospects to put together a very attractive and competitive package without trading the untouchables. Whether Amaro realizes that or not is up for debate. 

 

[JohntheBaptist]

I would say Hamels by an eyelash over Zimmermann. I don't think you get Zimm and keep B/B/S, Hamels you have for four/ five years where Zimmermann won't sign an extension, and like smas I'd be happy to turn Owens into Hamels, at cheaper and shorter than Lester money. I think with the Dodgers less likely to get in on Hamels, the price will eventually come off of the B/B/S trio and center more on Owens, which I'm fine with. If it doesn't, I move on to Shields.

 

[geoduck no quahog]

The Sox now have a surplus of young pitchers and a surplus of money having passed on Lester. Those two facts point to Hamels for me, even more so with Cueto off the boards.

Is there any doubt that Hamels is the best pitcher remaining?

 

[rembrat]

Is there any doubt that Hamels is the best pitcher remaining?

 
I think you could argue for any of the remaining 1A options but where Hamels shines through is his veterancy as an ace. We have a core of young, mid-tier starters who need a Hamels at the top to look to as a stopper and dude-who-has-been-there-before.

 

[TigerBlood]

The Sox now have a surplus of young pitchers and a surplus of money having passed on Lester. Those two facts point to Hamels for me, even more so with Cueto off the boards.

Is there any doubt that Hamels is the best pitcher remaining?

 
I think the fact that Hamels is the best pitcher remaining means Amaro won't budge on the requirement of 2 of Bogaerts, Betts and Owens, which is absurd.
 
Also, there's still Scherzer.

 

[geoduck no quahog]

Plus, cost control - essentially what they were willing to pay Lester, but for fewer years.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

The Sox now have a surplus of young pitchers and a surplus of money having passed on Lester. Those two facts point to Hamels for me, even more so with Cueto off the boards.

Is there any doubt that Hamels is the best pitcher remaining?

 
Do they have a surplus of money though?  At least in the framework of not paying Lester, I'm not sure.  Lester likely would have cost in excess of $25M.  They're getting Miley, Masterson, and Porcello for about $26M.
 
Unless the original plan was Lester + Hamels (or an equivalently salaried pitcher), I'm not seeing an surplus in the budget large enough that still fits Hamels.

 

[67WasBest]

 
Do they have a surplus of money though?  At least in the framework of not paying Lester, I'm not sure.  Lester likely would have cost in excess of $25M.  They're getting Miley, Masterson, and Porcello for about $26M.
 
Unless the original plan was Lester + Hamels (or an equivalently salaried pitcher), I'm not seeing an surplus in the budget large enough that still fits Hamels.

They can afford them in 2015, but not 2016.  In a year, it's likely one or two of the lefties are ready, if not, taking on another big contract would hinder their flexibility.  I don't see that happening.

 

[GilaMonster]

Given that the Reds have moved Latos and Simon today, I don't think Cueto is going anywhere.  I doubt the asking price for Hamels is going to change significantly, so I really don't see that happening either.  So, given the options, I picked Shields.
 
But I also think it's likely that the next Red Sox "ace #1 frontline" starter is either in the minors or will be available on the free agent market next winter.

 
Maybe he will. Maybe this means the Reds are committed to a rebuild.

 

[turnthe2]

I'm in it for Max. Yes he's going to cost alot and yes there's a draft pick attached. However, if it doesn't take as much as he's reportedly wanting I'm all for it. When you consider the possibility that Boston will not have a protected top 10 pick in the 2016 draft, better to spend big on a pitcher now when the first round pick is protected.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I'm in it for Max. Yes he's going to cost alot and yes there's a draft pick attached. However, if it doesn't take as much as he's reportedly wanting I'm all for it. When you consider the possibility that Boston will not have a protected top 10 pick in the 2016 draft, better to spend big on a pitcher now when the first round pick is protected.

 
They've already spent two draft picks this year by signing Ramirez and Sandoval.  I think adding a third signing that costs a pick creates a situation where they don't pick at all between that protected first round pick and the fourth round.

 

[67WasBest]

It should also be noted their International funds for next year have been cut in half.  Other than that 1st pick, next year looks like a wasteland for prospects.  But that 1st pick will be an oh so nice addition.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

 
They've already spent two draft picks this year by signing Ramirez and Sandoval.  I think adding a third signing that costs a pick creates a situation where they don't pick at all between that protected first round pick and the fourth round.

 
They still have the supplemental pick, don't they?

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

 
They still have the supplemental pick, don't they?

 
The one from the A's?  No.  Right now, they have their #1, then nothing till round 3.  No competitive balance picks, no compensatory (QO) picks.
 
Updated draft order

 

[Al Zarilla]

Ryan Zimmerman would be a shitty choice to lead our staff, and Pablo Sandoval is already at third. Now Jordan Zimmerman...

You got the first name right for Zimmerpitcher. Now, just remember, three m's, two n's.
 
 - Spel polese

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Hamels would really round this rotation out beautifully.
 
The fact that the Phillies traded Rollins would seem to indicate that Amaro finally realizes that they need to rebuild.  Now he certainly may hold on, hoping for a ridiculous haul, but I would be happy giving up Owens, Kelly, and lower level guy, and picking up the full salary.

 

[grimshaw]

I would not count out Sonny Gray or a name or two that haven't been discussed yet.  These guys are always thinking huge.
Billy Beane hasn't finished his roster reconstruction yet and we have no idea what the Nats blockbuster is going to involve.

 

[sackamano]

Have to believe that at this point the target is Hamels. With Miley and Kelly still having multiple years of team-control, I'd guess that one of them will ultimately end up the deal.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Another vote for Shields. The prospect cost on Hamels or Cueto is probably going to be too high, especially in light of moving RDLR and Webster to bring in Miley. They still have a lot of depth for the rotation in Pawtucket, but I wouldn't want to thin it any more for a marginal upgrade over Shields who will only cost us money. I was comfortable with 4 year contract at around 20 AAV with a vesting option for a 5th year, and I'm still comfortable with that. Have the option vest at 200 innings pitched in year 4 or 400 between years 3 and 4.
 
If push comes to shove, I'd probably cave on a guaranteed 5th year, but I would hold out on that as long as possible and would prefer bringing up the AAV over the years.

 

[EricFeczko]

Another vote for Shields. The prospect cost on Hamels or Cueto is probably going to be too high, especially in light of moving RDLR and Webster to bring in Miley. They still have a lot of depth for the rotation in Pawtucket, but I wouldn't want to thin it any more for a marginal upgrade over Shields who will only cost us money. I was comfortable with 4 year contract at around 20 AAV with a vesting option for a 5th year, and I'm still comfortable with that. Have the option vest at 200 innings pitched in year 4 or 400 between years 3 and 4.
 
If push comes to shove, I'd probably cave on a guaranteed 5th year, but I would hold out on that as long as possible and would prefer bringing up the AAV over the years.

Ditto. I'd try for a 4yr/$100 mil deal. I'd swing it for 5 yr/110. At 7 mil per WAR, Shields would have to accumulate about 14 WAR, or 3.5 WAR per year in order to break even. Fortunately he's done that in nearly every season except his first year in the bigs, and his 2010 season when he had a .341 BABIP.
 
Despite his age, I'm actually less concerned about decline. His velocity has trended in the opposite direction of the average pitcher; he has increased his fastball velocity by 2 MPH from 2007-2014.
I'm sort of surprised that Steamer is projecting only a 3.0 WAR.

 

[foulkehampshire]

I vote other.
 
The painful and unlikely (really no way in hell) way?: Package Betts+ to the Nationals for Jordan Zimmermann; conditional upon a successful negotiating window and Lester-type money extension. 
 
The Cherington way?: Swing a deal for Tyson Ross or Andrew Cashner for a lesser cost, roll the dice.
 
I'd honestly be happy with either scenario.