"Wildest" Post-Season Games Ever?

[ToeKneeArmAss]

The great back-and-forth AL Wild Card play-in game got me thinking about what post-season games have been the "wildest".
 
To test this, I picked out (by memory) a bunch of post-season games that had a lot of tension, downloaded the play-by-play from Baseball-Reference, and computed the standard deviation of that game's play-by-play "win expectancy" as a proxy for volatility.  (As an aside, this analysis does not account for the extra excitement generated by "win-or-go-home" situations. I noticed that some games I vividly recall as gut-wrenching didn't score as high as I imagined because of this missing factor.)
 
Here's the list, ranked in inverse order of STDEV(wWE) (games in red more recently added):
 
44. 1991 World Series Game 7 - Morris goes 10 to win the World Series for the Twins 1-0.  STDEV(wWE) = 0.117.  Exciting game but not a lot of back-and-forth or late-inning heroics/lead changes that are needed to drive volatility of Win Expectancy.
 
43. 1992 World Series Game 6 - a 4-3 final in 11, ending with old friend Mike Timlin clinching the Jays' first championship by pouncing on an Otis Nixon 2-out bunt with the tying run on 3rd.  STDEV(wWE) = 0.122
 
42. 1953 World Series Game 6 - Carl Furillo ties it in the top of the 9th with a 2-run blast, but Yankees score in the bottom to win this one 4-3 and take the series.  STDEV(wWE) = 0.122.
 
41. 1947 World Series Game 4 - Yankees' Bill Bevens walks 10, but takes a no-hitter into the 9th, then with two out gives up the only hit the Dodgers would need to win this one. STDEV(wWE) = 0.125.
 
40. 1972 World Series Game 1 - A's counter Tigers' single run in the top of the 11th with a pair of their own. The first of 12 World Series games they would win over a three-year span.  STDEV(wWE) = 0.129.
 
39. 1912 World Series Game 8 - Red Sox beat Christy Mathewson 3-2 to clinch the series, thanks in part to Snodgrass' Muff.  STDEV(wWE) = 0.133.  Again, low-scoring without lots of late-inning lead changes.
 
38. 1985 World Series Game 6 - The Royals stare down elimination with an assist from Don Denkinger.  STDEV(wWE) = 0.137.
 
37. 2001 World Series Game 7 - While the rest of the nation cheers on a recovering NYC, Diamondback and Red Sox fans elate when Luis Gonzalez ruins the fairy-tale ending.  STDEV(wWE) = 0.148.
 
36. 1992 NLCS Game 7 - Years later, TBS would tout Braves' broadcasts with the tag line "Where were you when Sid slid?"  STDEV(wWE) = 0.156.
 
35. 2014 NLCS Game 2 - Up-to-the-minute action. The line score to this one looks like binary code.  Kolten Wong sure is trying to make up for that pickoff, isn't he?  STDEV(wWE) = 0.156.
 
34. 2009 AL "Game 163" - Down 3-0 early, Twins battle back to end Tigers' hopes in 12 innings, when the twelfth man to hit off of Fernando Rodney (Alexi Casilla) singles to right to plate Delmon Young.  STDEV(wWE) = 0.161.
 
33. 1951 NL Playoff Game 3 - "The Giants win the pennant!" (Surprised this isn't higher.) STDEV(wWE) = 0.162.
 
32. 2004 ALCS Game 4 - We all know what happened in this game. I was surprised it didn't score higher.  STDEV(wWE) = 0.162.  
 
31. 2004 ALCS Game 5 - Ditto and ditto.  STDEV(wWE) = 0.163.
 
30. 2003 NLDS Game 3 - Giants score one in the 11th but 2 runs score on Ivan Rodriguez' game-winner with 2 outs in the bottom. And the Marlins are headed toward breaking Yankee fans' hearts.  STDEV(wWE) = 0.164.
 
29. 1997 World Series Game 7 - Cleveland snatches defeat from the jaws of victory, and rolls it through Tony Fernandez' legs.  STDEV(wWE) = 0.171.
 
28. 1995 ALDS Game 5 - Mariners' Andy Benes and Yankees' David Cone lock horns at the Kingdome, with Yankees taking a 4-2 lead in the 6th.  Mariners tie it in the bottom of the 8th on a Griffey Jr. solo shot and a bases-loaded walk. Yankees score once in the top of the 11th, but Mariners get a pair and the win in the bottom.  STDEV(wWE) = 0.176.
 
27. 2007 NL Wild Card "Game 163" - Red-hot Rox and ice-cold Padres duke it out for access to the post-season. Padres land two body blows in the top of the 13th, Rockies counter with a three-spot off Trevor Hoffman to advance. STDEV(wWE) = 0.178.
 
26. 1986 World Series Game 6 - Obviously this isn't weighted by degree of heartbreak caused.  STDEV(wWE) = 0.181.  Total tears created immeasurable.
 
25. 1929 World Series Game 5 - A's clinch by rallying from behind for the second night in a row. In this one, they score three times in the 9th to win 3-2.  This one was played in 102 minutes.  STDEV(wWE) = 0.185
 
24. 1980 NLCS Game 5 - I don't remember this Phils-Astros series, but it clearly was a doozy with four of the five games going extras. In the clincher, Astros score five in the top of the 8th to jump ahead 7-5, but 'Stros score twice in the bottom.  Philly plates one in the top of 10th and Dick Ruthven closes it out.  STDEV(wWE) = 0.188.
 
23. 2008 ALCS Game 5 - Red Sox stave off elimination thanks to Big Papi and J. D. Drew, overcoming a 7-0 deficit with four in the 7th, three in the 8th, and the game-winner in the 9th. Not so much a back-and-forth game as a BACK ... and ... FORTH game.  STDEV(wWE) = 0.194.
 
22. 1925 World Series Game 7 - A see-saw battle but Walter Johnson tires and the Pirates come through for 2 in 7th and 3 in the 8th for what will be their last championship until Bill Mazeroski's HR.  STDEV(wWE) = 0.195.
 
21. 2011 World Series Game 6 - Nelson Cruz cheats in to be early to the dog pile.  As a result he misses the fly ball that would have won the Series for the Rangers, leaving the door open for David Freese's heroics. STDEV(wWE) = 0.200.
 
20. 1975 World Series Game 7 - Jim Burton pitched in 32 games in his major league career.  Astonishingly, this was one of them.  Did you know he died last December?  I didn't.  STDEV(wWE) = 0.203.
 
19. 2009 NLCS Game 4 - Down one in the 9th with two out and two on, Jimmy (not Henry) Rollins hits a game-winning double off Jonathan Broxton to put the Phils up 3-1 in the series.  STDEV(wWE) = 0.207
 
18. 1972 World Series Game 4 - Down one in the 9th with one out and none on, Dick Williams pulls out all the stops, sending pinch-hitters up for 3 of his next 4 hitters.  They all get hits and A's come back to beat the Reds 3-2. STDEV(wWE) = 0.210.
 
17. 2003 ALCS Game 7 - This would have scored higher except the Win Expectancy doesn't change as the result of mind-blowingly stupid mound visits. STDEV(wWE) = 0.213
 
16. 2005 World Series Game 3 - I still find it hard to believe that the Astros and White Sox played in a World Series.  Astros take a 4-0 lead only to have Oswalt give up five runs in the 5th.  Astros tie it in 8th.  No scoring til the top of the 14th, when the White Sox break through for a pair.  Save goes to ... Mark Buerhle (who knew?) STDEV(wWE) = 0.216.
 
15. 2014 AL Wild Card Play-In game - a wild one for sure, but not the wildest.  STDEV(wWE) = 0.226.
 
14. 1975 World Series Game 6 - again the stakes and our Red Sox bias amplify the impact of this game.  It's right up there.  STDEV(wWE) = 0.227.
 
13. 2005 NLDS Game 4 - Facing elimination, Braves squander a 6-1 8th inning lead, and this one goes 18 innings before the Astros advance on a Chris Burke (who?) walk-off homer. Roger Clemens pitches the last three innings for the win. STDEV(wWE) = 0.234.
 
12. 1999 ALDS Game 5 - Troy O'Leary's finest hour.  Maybe Pedro's too. STDEV(wWE) = 0.235.
 
11. 1993 World Series Game 4 - the game that led to death threats for Mitch Williams.  Lots of scoring and late lead changes resulted in a STDEV(wWE) = 0.240.
 
10. 1996 World Series Game 4 - Braves lead 6-0 after 5, but Yankees score 3 in the 6th and Leyritz hits a 3-run HR in the 8th off Mark Wohlers that leads to extras.  In the top of the 10th, Steve Avery gets two quick outs, then surrenders 2 runs on 3 walks, an IF single, and an error.  STDEV(wWE) = 0.245.
 
9. 1986 ALCS Game 5 - Don Baylor's and Dave Henderson's HRs give the Sox a stunning 9th inning lead.  But Angels tie it in the bottom of the 9th, with the Red Sox winning in 11.  AKA the Donnie Moore game - if you haven't read the recent SI article on the last year's of Moore's life, look for it.  STDEV(wWE) = 0.252
 
8. 1993 World Series Game 6 - the Joe Carter series-winning walk-off game.  Had forgotten that was a 3-run shot to come back from behind.  STDEV(wWE) = 0.254.
 
7. 1980 NLCS Game 4 - this game bookends entry 23 above. Phils overcome a 2-0 deficit with three runs off Vern Ruhle in the top of the 8th.  Astros get one back in the bottom of the 9th, but the Pride of Saskatchewan Terry Puhl gets doubled off first on a fly to RF and we go to extras.  Greg Luzinski drives in Pete Rose with a pinch-hit single in the 10th, and Manny Trillo plates the Bull for an insurance run.  STDEV(wWE) = 0.264.
 
6. 2002 World Series Game 6 - Giants take a 5-run lead after 6-1/2 and look to be headed for their first San Fran championship. But Angels score 3 in the 7th and 3 more in the 8th to force game 7.  STDEV(wWE) = 0.268.
 
5. 1960 World Series Game 7 - Mazeroski clubs one out of Forbes Field, over Yogi Berra's head.  Didn't realize what a back-and-forth game this was.  Excitement-wise, this may well be the best World Series clincher ever. STDEV(wWE) = 0.275.
 
4. 1986 NLCS Game 6 - Mets have to score 3 in the ninth to postpone the spectre of a 7th game, and get the lead run to third but can't take the lead.  Mets and 'Stros exchange single runs in the 14th. Mets break through for 3 in the top of the 16th, and Astros get a pair but can't make it all the way back.  STDEV(wWE) = 0.276.
 
3. 2003 NLCS Game 6 - Can you say Steve Bartman?  Not in Chicago you can't, not even eleven years later.  STDEV(wWE) = 0.277.
 
2. 1956 World Series Game 2 - Yankees send unheralded starter Don Larsen to the mound against Don Newcombe.  Yankees drive Newcombe from the game trailing 6-0 in the top of 2nd, only to have Larsen spit the bit and we're tied after 2.  But the Dodgers keep scoring and go on to win 13-8.  STDEV(wWE) = 0.281.  (Larsen would pitch a little better in game 5.)
 
1. 1929 World Series Game 4 - Down 8-0 to the Cubs going into the bottom of the 8th, the A's send 15 men to the plate and score ten times before making their second out, to take a 3-1 series edge.  STDEV(wWE) = 0.303.
 
Edit: Now up to 44 games and I'm done for now.  Lots of good new additions.  New adds have numbers in Red.  This has been fun.

 

[worm0082]

It's not baseball, but I wonder where the 'Frank Reich game' would rank against that list. 
 
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/199301030buf.htm

 

[singaporesoxfan]

Seems like some years have more dramatic games than others (1975, 1986, 1993, 2004) or maybe that's just Sox bias. How about the 2004 NLCS game 6 with the 9th inning Bagwell homer and the Edmonds walk off?

 

[cannonball 1729]

What I picture as "wild" would definitely be something like 2011 Game 6. I feel like a game that's wild has to end up with some ridiculous score like 12-11.  But if we're talking about a close back-and-forth game, I have to throw in:
 
1992 Game 6: Braves tied up the game in the 3rd and again in the 9th, Blue Jays score 2 in the top of the 11th, Braves score 1 in the bottom of the 11th before Mike Timlin comes in and strands the tying run on 3rd.  Bonus points because Jimmy Key got the win in relief.  Probably doesn't have the same game variance as the ones above, but I figure any extra-inning World Series elimination game where a team ties the game in the 9th qualifies as wild.
 
2005 Game 3: Astros go up 4-0, White Sox score 5 to go up 5-4, Astros score 1 in the 8th to tie, game goes 14 innings, White Sox finally score 2 in the top of the 14th to win.

 

[Kevin Jewkilis]

This was a regular-season game, but had the same impact of a playoff game -- the wildcard play-in game in 2007, with the Rockies coming back to take the lead, but the Padres tied it in the 8th.  The Padres then went ahead in the 13th, only for Hoffman to blow the save and then give up the game-winning sac fly that propelled the Rockies into the playoffs.  The impact of this one is magnified by the incredible runs (in the opposite direction) the Rockies and Padres went on to get into this game, and then by the Rockies winning the next 7 to earn their only pennant.  (After that, they ran into Josh Beckett, and their season took a turn for the worse.)

 

[ThePrideofShiner]

2003 ALCS Game 7: This was certainly wild. http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYA/NYA200310160.shtml
 
2005 NLDS Game 4: I guess this one was more long than wild, but an 18-inning game is certainly up there. http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/HOU/HOU200510090.shtml

 

[jon abbey]

Games 4 and 5 of the 1980 NLCS between the Phillies and Astros should be up there, game 2 maybe also. This was the series that locked me in for life as a baseball fan at the age of 13 (although I was a Yankee fan since seeing the ALCS-winning Chambliss HR at the age of 9).
 
http://www.baseball-reference.com/postseason/1980_NLCS.shtml

 

[ToeKneeArmAss]

Added games suggested above to opening post.  Keep em coming.

 

[jose melendez]

How about Game 5 of the 1999 ALDS?

 

[VORP Speed]

Game 5 of 2008 ALCS.

 

[ToeKneeArmAss]

Game 5 of 2008 ALCS.

 
Ha - just remembered that one myself and added it.  Also added the Troy O'Leary game.

 

[Dehere]

This could really be a published article somewhere. Great work.

Would be interesting if you made adjustments by round, weighing WS games more heavily, and adjusted for non-elimination games, elimination games for one team, and elimination games for both teams. Great stuff regardless.

 

[kieckeredinthehead]

This could really be a published article somewhere. Great work.

Would be interesting if you made adjustments by round, weighing WS games more heavily, and adjusted for non-elimination games, elimination games for one team, and elimination games for both teams. Great stuff regardless.

People were definitely doing this with the 2004 ALCS. Rather than looking just at win expectancy for the game, you can measure World Series win expectancy.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

How about game 5 of the 1995 Divisional Series between the Yankees and Mariners? Probably not at the top of the list but might crack the back end. That was a fantastic baseball game with tons of drama.

 

[Laser Show]

Take a look at the 2009 AL Central tiebreaker between Minnesota and Detroit. I remember that being nuts.

 

[curly2]

Anyone old enough to remember it probably has a failing memory, but in Game 4 of the 1929 World Series, the A's trailed the Cubs 8-0 after 6 1/2 innings, then scored 10 in the bottom of the seventh: http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/PHA/PHA192910120.shtml
 
Not AS wild, but the next day, the Cubs led 2-0 before the A's scored three in the ninth to win the series.

 

[ToeKneeArmAss]

Anyone old enough to remember it probably has a failing memory, but in Game 4 of the 1929 World Series, the A's trailed the Cubs 8-0 after 6 1/2 innings, then scored 10 in the bottom of the seventh: http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/PHA/PHA192910120.shtml
 
Not AS wild, but the next day, the Cubs led 2-0 before the A's scored three in the ninth to win the series.

 
New leader in the clubhouse - Game 4 of 1929 Series.  Game 5 also makes the list.  Nice pull, curly2.  Did stiffy help you with this one?  

 

[cannonball 1729]

If big comebacks count as wild, Game 6 of the 2002 World Series probably fits somewhere in the back half of the list.  5-0 Giants, Angels are down to their last eight outs of the series, and then the Halos score six times to force a game 7.

 

[Zona90]

There were four wild games in the 2001 World Series. Derek "Mr. November" Jeter hits a game-winning homer in game 3. Kim blows a 2-run lead in the 9th inning in both game 4 and 5. Mariano Rivera, the greatest post-season closer gives up two runs in the 9th inning and the Diamondbacks win game 7 and the World Series.

 

[Brand Name]

2009, Game 4, NLCS (Rollins hits a game winning double off Broxton to avoid the series being tied at 2 down a run; they win the next game, and win their 2nd straight pennant, the first NL team to do so since the 95-96 Braves): http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/PHI/PHI200910190.shtml
2003, Game 6, NLCS (Bartman): http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CHN/CHN200310140.shtml
2003, Game 3, NLDS (Ivan Rodriguez ties the game with a single, bottom 11, but winning run scores same play on an error): http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/FLO/FLO200310030.shtml
2001, Game 7, WS (Rivera blows it/DBacks win 1st WS): http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/ARI/ARI200111040.shtml
1992, Game 7, NLCS (Fransisco Cabrera beats Belinda, similar style to hit+error=walkoff of 2003 NLDS, down 2-0 in 9th to win 3-2 in 9): http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/ATL/ATL199210140.shtml
1996, Game 4, WS (Leyritz ruins Wohlers): http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/ATL/ATL199610230.shtml
1985, Game 6, WS (Iorg gets the Royals a pair of runs in, down 1 in the 9th, to win the game, if with plenty of controversy): http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/KCA/KCA198510260.shtml
1972, Game 1, ALCS (Gonzalo Marquez of the A's gets a hit to right, to tie the game 2, which the Tigers had taken the lead of in the top of the inning, however the winning run, Tenace, scores on a throwing error by Al Kaline. Without this win, Oakland does not threepeat from 72-74, meaning the Yankees would become the only team to win the World Series more than two consecutive years): http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/OAK/OAK197210070.shtml
1956, Game 2, WS (Down 6 nothing in the 2nd, and having given up 5 in the second Brooklyn comes back with 6 of their own, wins 13-8 in a wild back and forth): http://www.baseball-reference.com/postseason/1956_WS.shtml  
1953, Game 6, WS (Dodgers get 2 off a Furillo home run to tie the game in the 9th, but the Yankees get the last laugh, in the same inning to win with the walkoff): http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYA/NYA195310050.shtml
1951, NL, Game 157 (The Giants win the pennant!): http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NY1/NY1195110030.shtml
1947, Game 4, WS (one hit is enough to win the game!): http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BRO/BRO194710030.shtml
1925, Game 7, WS (wild back and forth 9-7 game throughout, Walter Johnson denied a 2nd WS win, but goes the full game, allows 15 hits): http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/PIT/PIT192510150.shtml
 
 
Sorry for all these, though I think many of them feature some quirks, for instance, Game 4 of 1947; Brooklyn was being no hit into the 10th, by Bill Bevens, but he had given up 10 walks to that point. The Yankees had just taken a 2-1 lead into the 10th, and then it was subsequently blown; first hit was the only one the Dodgers needed. Bevens was reportedly so wild they tried to get him to throw into a pitch for sport science, to see how the ball would react in a tube. He was unable to do so.
 
PS: Thank you for this topic. It's an awesome read that has been make this postseason even better, with fun tales of the past, be they recent, or before my time.

 

[jon abbey]

I wonder if last night's NLCS game 2 makes this list. 

 

[runnels3]

1972 WS game 4. A's down 2-1 in the 9th at the Coliseum. Dick Williams sends up three pinch hitters and they all deliver, the M boys! Marquez, Mincher, and finally Mangual with the walk-off single through a drawn in infield.  Wild and crazy at the time. Remember it like it was last night.
 
http://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/1972/B10190OAK1972.htm

 

[rajendra82]

2003 NLCS Game 6 (AKA The Bartman game)

 

[curly2]

 
New leader in the clubhouse - Game 4 of 1929 Series.  Game 5 also makes the list.  Nice pull, curly2.  Did stiffy help you with this one?  

 
Actually it was a feature in Sports Illustrated years ago about the best dynasty nobody remembers. I had always figured that the Ruth-Gehrig Yankees were invincible, but the A's won the pennant three straight years with Ruth and Gehrig still in their primes. 

 

[ToeKneeArmAss]

Thanks for all the suggestions. It takes some time to process each game and I'm busy with work so will pick this back up when I have spare time. I also have some ideas about how to weight games based on importance of the outcome that I'd like your take on when I can articulate them clearly.

 

[cannonball 1729]

 
Actually it was a feature in Sports Illustrated years ago about the best dynasty nobody remembers. I had always figured that the Ruth-Gehrig Yankees were invincible, but the A's won the pennant three straight years with Ruth and Gehrig still in their primes. 

 
You can definitely win some bar bets with the question, "Which MLB team was the first to win back-to-back World Series titles twice?"

 

[ToeKneeArmAss]

Bump. List extensively updated. Now 44 games.  See opening post.
 
Also, my thinking regarding weighting goes something like this:
 

• Clearly the most potential for tension exists when both teams are facing elimination.  Or said differently, when both teams can clinch with a win.  
• Or in other words, for two teams a and b, P(a wins the series|a wins the game) = 1 and P(b wins the series|b wins the game) = 1.  (I use "series" here to mean the current playoff round, not the ultimate World Series outcome.  Also for ease of notation, let's call those two terms Pa|a and Pb|b.)
• So for highest-of-all tension conditions in a series, Pa|a * Pb|b = 1.
• And we can compute Pa|a * Pb|b for all different series situations (ie, 2 games to 1, or 3 to 2, or whatever), and these form an index of series state tension.

Following this logic generates the following tension "weightings" for 5-game and 7-game series (assuming each game is a coin flip):
 

Tension Index for a 5-Game Series

Series State	Tension Index
0-0	0.47265625
1-0	0.328125
1-1	0.5625
2-0	0.25
2-1	0.5
2-2	1

 
 

Tension Index for a 7-Game Series

Series State	Tension Index
0-0	0.430664063
1-0	0.40625
1-1	0.47265625
2-0	0.29296875
2-1	0.328125
2-2	0.5625
3-0	0.125
3-1	0.25
3-2	0.5
3-3	1

 
These results seem sensical to me on inspection.
 
The next level decision is whether to weight a World Series more heavily than a LCS, and/or an LCS more heavily than a DS.  My initial instinct would be to make this geometric - that is, if you win a DS you're still just 25% to go all the way, or 50% if you win a LCS.  So you might see an additional weight factor of 1 to 0.5 to 0.25 that could be a multiplier on the series state tension index.
 
The problem with this in my view is it discounts the huge investment made in the regular season.  When you're fighting for your life in a DS, it's not just to progress to the next round, but it's also to validate all the hard work done over 162 games to advance to the post-season.  Plus just subjectively, the tension in the 7th game of an LCS doesn't strike me as being only 50% of game 7 in a World Series.  Sure the latter has more tension, but twice as much?  I don't think so.
 
Anyway, when I have more time (i.e., not for a while), I'll apply some version of this to the 44 games listed above to re-rank them.
 
In the meantime would love to hear others' thoughts on this.
 
 
Edit: typos

 

[jon abbey]

That 1986 NLCS game 6 was like a game 7 for the Mets, because although they were up 3-2, if they lost, they would have faced Mike Scott again, who had already thoroughly dominated them in games 1 and 4 (both complete games, a combined 18 8 1 1 1 19). No way to quantify that probably, but just saying. 

 

[ToeKneeArmAss]

Two things I find interesting there Jon. One is the observation that what might come next influences the tension in today's game. The other (which seems obvious now that I think about it) is how different it can be for each team.

 

[joyofsox]

Related list:
 
Was Giants' win best 5-game series ever?
 
David Schoenfield lists five great best-of-7 series that went only 4 or 5 games.

 

[timlinin8th]

The problem with this in my view is it discounts the huge investment made in the regular season. When you're fighting for your life in a DS, it's not just to progress to the next round, but it's also to validate all the hard work done over 162 games to advance to the post-season. Plus just subjectively, the tension in the 7th game of an LCS doesn't strike me as being only 50% of game 7 in a World Series. Sure the latter has more tension, but twice as much? I don't think so.

The other thing about any "tension factor" is that it is also not going to be equally weighted for both teams... That is, in a 3 games to none 7 game series, the team with 3 wins is going to have far less tension to win than the team with no wins fighting to survive (see: 2004 ALCS). Just anecdotally, thinking back on playoff series I've watched, elimination type games where even one team stands to be eliminated have more tension than, say, the first game of a series or a 1-1 series, since regardless of the outcome of that individual game, the certainty level of there being another game is 100%.

Also I do believe there should be a weight for which series a game falls in but clinch games for any of the series SHOULD generally still come out on top... You're probably far better at this than me but figure a three-tiered equation where you take your standard weighting that you defined in your post, multiplied by a weighting that ONE team has of being eliminated, times the odds that team has of winning the WS? Or does that assign too much weighting to any one category? Could you double-weight your standard weighting that you defined to compensate for that?

 

[glasspusher]

That 1986 NLCS game 6 was like a game 7 for the Mets, because although they were up 3-2, if they lost, they would have faced Mike Scott again, who had already thoroughly dominated them in games 1 and 4 (both complete games, a combined 18 8 1 1 1 19). No way to quantify that probably, but just saying. 

 
That game was amazing, and indeed for the specter of an unwinnable game 7 for the Mets. Also agree with your assessment of the 1980 NLCS- that game 3 was incredible alone.

 

[jon abbey]

 
That game was amazing, and indeed for the specter of an unwinnable game 7 for the Mets. Also agree with your assessment of the 1980 NLCS- that game 3 was incredible alone.

 
I was lucky enough to be at game 5 of the 1986 NLCS, also essentially a game 7 for NY to avoid facing Scott again (they needed to win all four non-Scott games to take the series). That game was understandably overshadowed by the incredible game 6, but was an amazing one in its own right, Nolan Ryan against Dwight Gooden in his prime, 1-1 into the 12th (Gooden pitched 10, Ryan 9), Gary Carter won it on a single up the middle. Best baseball game I have ever been to, I don't think second place is very close. 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYN/NYN198610140.shtml

(I have told this story before here, apologies to anyone who's read it multiple times). 

 

[glasspusher]

 
I was lucky enough to be at game 5 of the 1986 NLCS, also essentially a game 7 for NY to avoid facing Scott again (they needed to win all four non-Scott games to take the series). That game was understandably overshadowed by the incredible game 6, but was an amazing one in its own right, Nolan Ryan against Dwight Gooden in his prime, 1-1 into the 12th (Gooden pitched 10, Ryan 9), Gary Carter won it on a single up the middle. Best baseball game I have ever been to, I don't think second place is very close. 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYN/NYN198610140.shtml

(I have told this story before here, apologies to anyone who's read it multiple times). 

 
Slightly unrelated, but the last baseball game I went to with my old man was this one:
 
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYN/NYN198409070.shtml
 
Saw Dwight Gooden break Herb Score's record for strikeouts by a rookie. One guy pulled the ball against him all night- Leon Durham, grounding out to first.
 
DAMN he was good back then.