Will the Sox sign a shortstop this offeason?

Will the Sox sign a SS this offseason?

  • Yes, after also signing X to a longterm deal and having him play 2B/LF

    Votes: 5 2.8%
  • Yes, and without signing X to a longterm deal

    Votes: 28 15.9%
  • No

    Votes: 143 81.3%

  • Total voters
    176
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BringBackMo

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Interesting discussion in the Red Sox offseason thread about whether the Sox might sign Carlos Correa this offseason. Do you think they sign Correa or another shortstop? For context, here is some of the back and forth from that discussion.

EDIT: Adding a bit more context. Bogaerts is under contract for this season and then has an opt-out that he could exercise to become a free agent. He has reportedly expressed a willingness to move off of SS "down the road," although it is unclear what that time frame might actually be.

However, I would be borderline shocked if they sign Correa, move Bogaerts to second against his wishes, and then just let him walk. I think people assuming this is going to happen are dramatically underestimating the degree to which the Sox, having already traded Mookie, will be sensitive to the perception that they will ruthlessly dump generational, face-of-the-franchise players whenever it suits them.
They aren't ruthlessly dumping Bogaerts. X has an opt out after this year and will definitely use it so the Sox will have to assume this is X's walk year. If they can get Carlos Correa, why not do it?
That's how you view the situation. But a large portion of the fanbase will not view it that way. People are very aware that Bogaers wants to continue to play shortstop for at least another couple of years. Signing someone else to play that position and moving him off of it will be read by many, many Red Sox fans as treating him poorly and effectively dumping him since he would likely not resign with the club. The point I made in my post is that the Red Sox will be very sensitive to the *perception* that they would be ruthlessly dumping Bogaerts like they did Mookie. Maybe Bloom will do it anyway, and I'm not saying it would be the wrong baseball move, but I think you're kidding yourself if you believe that fans will react to a Correa signing that pushes Xander off short and leads to his departure the following season as, "Well, he just didn't want to be here." I don't think the Red Sox believe that would be the reaction either.
I agree. If X goes (even if they get Correa) there's going to be a lot of really pissed off fans. Triple that if they lose Devers too. No matter who replaces them.
Fans can be wrong that way. They were wrong about the Mookie situation, for example. I'm sure a lot of them are, right now, wrong about the value of signing Correa instead of committing to Bogaerts at SS long-term. Bloom's job is to be right.
"When you start thinking like a fan, you will end up sitting with them."

--Terry Francona (and probably others before him).
Let me start by stating that I agree with you in your Mookie assessment. He's one of my five favorite ballplayers and I wish every day that he were still on the Sox, but given the situation, trading him was the right thing to do. But even here at SOSH, that trade remains very controversial in some quarters. Sports are about winning, yes, but they are also about entertainment, and most clubs are very sensitive to the marketing and engagement aspects of the business. Bloom's job is to be right about baseball. It's my opinion that others in the organization would be consulted about anything involving Bogaerts' future with the club.
I really have to disagree with pretty much everything you and others are saying. What makes the Mookie departure and a potential Xander departure different is who they have replacing the player. When you trade Betts and all you get back is Alex Verdugo and some minor league players, fans are going to have a problem with that. You dumped a MVP-caliber player and you didn't get a player close of his value in return. With a Bogaerts departure, you're getting back a player that is arguably better all around and is younger. I would have no problem getting Correa and either moving X to another position or trading him. And I'm speaking as someone who is a gigantic Bogaerts fan.
 
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Tim Salmon

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I don't think they'll sign another shortstop this offseason, but I think it has everything to do with the likely commitment in years and dollars, and nothing to do with fear of fan backlash for doing Bogaerts dirty.

If you let Bogaerts walk and replace him with, say, Arauz, then the fans can run wild with all sorts of narratives: the Red Sox aren't loyal to their homegrown players... John Henry only cares about soccer, racing, and yachts... they hired Chaim Bloom to run the Red Sox like the Rays... etc.

If you bring in a shiny bauble like Correa, it's much easier to sell the fanbase on the idea that the team is willing to spend money, but that Bogaerts had been signaling that he didn't really want to be here. "He left $80M on the table to look elsewhere." "He wasn't willing to move off shortstop to make room for a better defender and improve the team overall." I think Correa would quickly become a fan favorite, and we'd start hearing casual fans talk about things like defensive runs saved instead of batting average.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Having Correa would obviously improve the team…. But I don’t believe they can go after Suzuki, Schwarber, extend X and Devers AND add Correa. And X staying at SS isn’t IMO enough difference to both short and long term goals that I think would otherwise be constrained by Correa’s massive contract
 

Minneapolis Millers

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I went with no just because it would be more complicated than simply signing Suzuki or Schwarbs. (Plus I want X to stay and don’t want to have to root for Correa.)
 

Saints Rest

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I don’t think they will sign someone for many of the reasons Tim Salmon laid out above.

If I were GM, I would chat with X about his future plans, and his feelings about signing Correa before I did it.

In some ways, this is similar to the Yankees bringing in ARod. On paper, it made sense to move Jeter and put the better all-round player at SS. But Jeter was the face of that franchise and didn’t want to move.

I think you have to have a very good idea of X’s feelings BEFORE engaging with Correa.

The Robin Yount path of moving a superstar SS to the OF is nice, but sometimes you end up with Hanley Ramirez in LF. It would be great if X looked like an OF, but other than LF in Fenway, I’m not sure he’ll have the range to be anything more than passable out there.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I went wit no although it's certainly possible that Chaim signs someone.

Chaim is looking for excess value deals. That's the biggest part of his philosophy. He's not getting excess value from signing Correa or someone like him.
 

Yo La Tengo

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If Xander is on board with a move to 2B w/ an extension, how about a trade for J.P. Crawford? I think Paul DeJong is also an interesting lottery ticket as a potential utility player as I could see him coming back in to form, and St. Louis has Edmundo Sosa in the wings (he might have already pushed DeJong to the bench). Both Crawford and DeJong are young-ish, have very good defensive skills, and have some upside offensively (although they are trending in opposite directions).
 

RobertsSteal

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I went wit no although it's certainly possible that Chaim signs someone.

Chaim is looking for excess value deals. That's the biggest part of his philosophy. He's not getting excess value from signing Correa or someone like him.
I wonder if that’s the whole philosophy, though. I can see that with a TB budget. But with the Sox budget, I think the play is to stockpile those excess value deals so you can take the swing for a top-25 player in the sport when he becomes available for “just $$$”.
Is Correa top-25? Perhaps.
More importantly, what is Chaim’s strategy? Closer to yours, mine, or something else?
Can’t wait to see it play out.
 

Max Power

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Will Xander really have to move off short any time soon? I get that he's not very good defensively, but there's no evidence he's getting worse. His UZR has been slightly positive the last few years after being negative earlier in his career. Most players peak defensively in their early 20s and get worse from there, but it could be if you start out bad, the usual curve doesn't apply.

If he can simply keep being who he currently is, there's no real reason to move on from him. Yes, team's defensive efficiency was worst in the league last year, but they also made it to game 6 of the ALCS. Defense in baseball doesn't seem to have nearly as much effect on wins and losses as the advanced stats claim.
 

chawson

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Will Xander really have to move off short any time soon? I get that he's not very good defensively, but there's no evidence he's getting worse. His UZR has been slightly positive the last few years after being negative earlier in his career. Most players peak defensively in their early 20s and get worse from there, but it could be if you start out bad, the usual curve doesn't apply.

If he can simply keep being who he currently is, there's no real reason to move on from him. Yes, team's defensive efficiency was worst in the league last year, but they also made it to game 6 of the ALCS. Defense in baseball doesn't seem to have nearly as much effect on wins and losses as the advanced stats claim.
UZR is not a great metric for this sort of thing, apparently. It ignores plays that are in the shift.

View: https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1461048897778982922?s=21


Xander’s defensive runs saved the last five years:

2017: -11
2018: -8
2019: -9
2020: -4*
2021: -5

His outs above average:
2017: 2
2018: -3
2019: -9
2020: -3*
2021: -9

*These are cumulative stats, so 2020 doesn’t represent an improvement.

So I’d disagree that there isn’t evidence he’s getting worse, with the caveat that all defensive metrics are a little imprecise.

The other metric is the Sox ability to turn groundballs into outs, and that’s certainly declining:

2017: 71.3 (28th)
2018: 71.4 (28th)
2019: 73.6 (19th)
2020: 68.6% (30th)
2021: 70.6% (30th)

That’s not all on Xander, but it’s mostly him. (Arroyo, Holt, Chavis and Pedroia all graded out as plus-defensive 2Bs over that time; Nuñez and Devers quite bad).

I think it’s reasonable to expect Xander to further decline at short. Keeping him there also makes me worry about the downstream negative effects on pitching. We’re already at a geographic and home park disadvantage for attracting FA starting pitchers. I’d think an infield defense this bad would be dissuasive to good FA pitchers we’d want to sign here. Plus, we’ve got a lot of arms coming up the pipeline whose development doesn’t need a historically bad infield defense working against it.
 
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YTF

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IMO, Bogaerts isn't moving off SS this season unless he's content to stay here and will accept what he considers a reasonable extension to accommodate whoever they may bring in. This is his $$$ year and the top FA SS options next season are X, Turner and Swanson. I see no reason for him not to explore free agency after the coming season and I can't see the Sox extending him at what he thinks the top of the FA SS class should expect to earn.
 

Saints Rest

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UZR is not a great metric for this sort of thing, apparently. It ignores plays that are in the shift.

View: https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1461048897778982922?s=21


Xander’s defensive runs saved the last five years:

2017: -11
2018: -8
2019: -9
2020: -4*
2021: -5

His outs above average:
2017: 2
2018: -3
2019: -9
2020: -3*
2021: -9

These are cumulative stats, so 2020 doesn’t represent an improvement.

So I’d disagree that there isn’t evidence he’s getting worse, with the caveat that all defensive metrics are a little imprecise.

The other metric is the Sox ability to turn groundballs into outs, and that’s certainly declining:

2017: 71.3 (28th)
2018: 71.4 (28th)
2019: 73.6 (19th)
2020: 68.6% (30th)
2021: 70.6% (30th)

That’s not all on Xander, but it’s mostly him. (Arroyo, Holt, Chavis and Pedroia all graded out as plus-defensive 2Bs over that time; Nuñez and Devers quite bad).

I think it’s reasonable to expect Xander to further decline at short. Keeping him there makes me worry about the downstream negative effects on pitching. We’re already at a geographic and home park disadvantage for attracting FA starting pitchers. I’d think an infield defense this bad would be dissuasive to good FA pitchers we’d want to sign here. Plus, we’ve got a lot of arms coming up the pipeline whose development doesn’t need a historically bad infield defense working against it.
Thanks for this comprehensive post. I would add that X's defensive limits surely must be magnified due to Devers' similar defensive limits. IOW, there must be some sort of cumulative effect from having two negative defensive players next to each other.
 

Max Power

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The other metric is the Sox ability to turn groundballs into outs, and that’s certainly declining:

2017: 71.3 (28th)
2018: 71.4 (28th)
2019: 73.6 (19th)
2020: 68.6% (30th)
2021: 70.6% (30th)
The team's record during those years...

2017: 93-69, lost ALDS
2018: 108-54, possible best team in Red Sox history
2019: 84-78, missed playoffs
2020: 24-36, horrendous disaster
2021: 92-70, lost ALDS

So the year when they were best by far at turning groundballs into outs, they had their second worst team. Does an extra couple singles getting through the infield every week really make much of a difference in winning ballgames?
 

chawson

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The team's record during those years...

2017: 93-69, lost ALDS
2018: 108-54, possible best team in Red Sox history
2019: 84-78, missed playoffs
2020: 24-36, horrendous disaster
2021: 92-70, lost ALDS

So the year when they were best by far at turning groundballs into outs, they had their second worst team. Does an extra couple singles getting through the infield every week really make much of a difference in winning ballgames?
Man, we should trade for David Price!
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I wonder if that’s the whole philosophy, though. I can see that with a TB budget. But with the Sox budget, I think the play is to stockpile those excess value deals so you can take the swing for a top-25 player in the sport when he becomes available for “just $$$”.
Is Correa top-25? Perhaps.
More importantly, what is Chaim’s strategy? Closer to yours, mine, or something else?
Can’t wait to see it play out.
I've not read a ton of interviews with Chaim but what I've read doesn't seem to suggest that he has an alternative way of looking at things. I mean isn't Barnes's extension the most guaranteed money he's given out ($18.75M over 2 years plus bonuses) and Hernandez the biggest signing ($14M over 2 years)?

My WAG is that if Chaim does anything different than what TB does, he'll use some of BOS's payroll muscle to keep home-grown stars instead of trading all of them off.

I'm also very interested to see how this plays out.
 

Sox Puppet

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So, as a thought experiment, let's say you sign Correa and get X on board to move to 2B. And in 3 years, Mayer and Yorke are knocking down the door ready for playing time.

What do you do then? Yes, I get that it's a "good problem to have," but it means you're probably going to shank X again and trade him off. I'm sure he can read the tea leaves.
 

chawson

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So, as a thought experiment, let's say you sign Correa and get X on board to move to 2B. And in 3 years, Mayer and Yorke are knocking down the door ready for playing time.

What do you do then? Yes, I get that it's a "good problem to have," but it means you're probably going to shank X again and trade him off. I'm sure he can read the tea leaves.
I think the problem with this and similar thought experiments is the assumption that the Sox don’t have the appropriate player relations team to discuss this with Bogaerts. So every hypothetical includes the team scandalously screwing him over somehow.

That doesn’t seem accurate to me. I’m not sure exactly whose job it is to discuss these sorts of things, but the Sox have a tremendous asset in Raquel Ferreira.

Here’s a new profile about Ferreira with quotes from Theo Epstein (“she’s the most empathetic person there”) and Ben Cherington (“Players are human beings and they need to feel a sense of connection, and they need to feel valued…Raquel played a huge role in humanizing what we were trying to do in helping them grow as baseball players and as people.”)

Ultimately it’s up to Xander. What we do have evidence that he’s open to moving positions — something he definitely did not need to say. It makes sense he wants to maximize his next contract, but I think it’s erroneous to assume that this kind of thing would come as a shock or a betrayal to him, or that this version of the Sox FO isn’t equipped with the right sort of personnel to handle this sort of thing.

But to answer your question, I’d see it like this:

‘22-25
1B: Schwarber/Dalbec, Casas, Casas, Casas
2B: Bogaerts, Bogaerts, Bogaerts, Yorke
SS: Correa, Correa, Correa, Mayer
3B: Devers, Devers, Devers, Correa
LF: Verdugo, Verdugo, Verdugo, Bogaerts
DH: Martinez/Schwarber, Schwarber, Schwarber, Devers

Or, if we land Correa, we trade Mayer for an elite starter in ‘24, which is fine.
 
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BaseballJones

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Bogaerts in left? When has him in left ever been anything that's been a "thing"? We can't just move guys around randomly like they're just names. I mean, maybe he can play left, but I've never heard the Sox even remotely consider this.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Every player is “open” to things when they are about to become a free agent. I don’t know why so much is being made of a throwaway line in an article.

Bogaerts is an excellent hitter, as a SS. But as a corner outfielder, in a few years? Not sure I see the appeal, I can’t imagine he’s willing to be paid like what an 800 ops corner OF (someone like, say, Jorge Soler?) gets……and if you are paying him like an elite SS, you’re wasting a lot of money.

Same goes with Correa…if you are anticipating he’s not your best option to play SS three years from now, than why would you give him a ten year deal?

Correa, Bogaerts, Devers, Schwarber…what are we talking here….$750-$800m in investment? Who’s pitching?
 

jon abbey

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Bogaerts in left? When has him in left ever been anything that's been a "thing"? We can't just move guys around randomly like they're just names. I mean, maybe he can play left, but I've never heard the Sox even remotely consider this.
It worked with Hanley, right? Too soon? :)
 

chawson

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It worked with Hanley, right? Too soon? :)
Successful INF—>OF conversions the last 10 years: Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, Ian Desmond, Ryan Braun, Jose Bautista, Ben Zobrist, Alex Gordon, Mookie Betts, Cody Bellinger, Chris Taylor, Joey Gallo, Wil Myers, Odubel Herrera, Kiké Hernández, Josh Willingham, Mark Canha, Jeff McNeil, Brian Anderson, Brandon Moss, Alfonso Soriano, Ian Happ, Michael Cuddyer, Howie Kendrick, Trey Mancini, Chris Coghlan, Brock Holt…

Unsuccessful ones: Hanley Ramirez

Not to get too deep into this hypothetical, but it’s not clear that Xander wouldn’t be fine in left. His sprint speed is good, better than Kiké, Verdugo and Renfroe last year.

If you think Bogaerts playing left field in 2025 might go badly, just imagine him playing shortstop.
 
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nvalvo

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I went wit no although it's certainly possible that Chaim signs someone.

Chaim is looking for excess value deals. That's the biggest part of his philosophy. He's not getting excess value from signing Correa or someone like him.
I disagree that it is that clear cut. The $/WAR ratios are better on a bunch of the high-end FA deals than they are on the median FA deals. (The risk is also higher.)

For example, Mookie Betts' contract with LA has a ton of projected surplus value — like almost $100m. Bloom definitely knows this.
 

geoduck no quahog

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How does a great defensive 1Bman help improve the range, positioning , or arm strength of the other infielders? Some sort of intangibles effect?
Obviously he doesn't. He impacts the timing and accuracy of throws. (Outside of any improvement in straight defense on balls hit to 1B, which I wasn't considering)
 

Cesar Crespo

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So, as a thought experiment, let's say you sign Correa and get X on board to move to 2B. And in 3 years, Mayer and Yorke are knocking down the door ready for playing time.

What do you do then? Yes, I get that it's a "good problem to have," but it means you're probably going to shank X again and trade him off. I'm sure he can read the tea leaves.
I love Yorke and Mayer as much as the next person but it's possible one or both get injured or stall. Worry about it in 3 years.

And maybe X can see the tea leaves, but he'll have a massive contract and will end up in a pretty good situation if traded away.
 

OCD SS

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Obviously he doesn't. He impacts the timing and accuracy of throws. (Outside of any improvement in straight defense on balls hit to 1B, which I wasn't considering)
Do you mean by catching bad throws (scooping throws out of the dirt, etc), or is it more ineffable and just being there with a target for the infielder?

To a certain degree the metrics are not going to describe the interaction of plays that have defenders interacting, but I don’t think that means that we can assess the relative merits of individual fielders. I imagine team proprietary metrics would account for bad throws saved by the 1Bman, but if plays are broken down on that level they’d show how much the 1Bman helped out the SS. In the abstract we probably shouldn’t be looking to 1B in askance at the shortcomings of the SS.

X has bad defensive numbers in DRS as an individual and the Sox as a whole were very bad in converting grounders into outs. That points to needing to improve the IF defense and the SS is the biggest part of that. He’ll help out on offense to get those runs back, but that doesn’t mean we need to find a way to rationalize away his flaws.
 

jon abbey

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If the other three infielders trust the 1B defensively, they can get rid of the ball quicker and worry less about their throw being perfect, just get it towards them as quickly as possible. I have long thought that defense at 1B is underrated in importance.
 

Sox Puppet

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I've often thought this would help Devers in particular. He's got pretty quick reflexes and a strong arm, but his throws aren't the most accurate.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Bogaerts gets 10/5 rights pretty soon anyways and would likely demand a no-trade in an extension
He achieves 10/5 sometime in the 2023 season, so any no-trade in an extension would realistically only need to cover 2023. Doesn't feel like it would be much of an obstacle to getting the deal done.
 

Auger34

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Thanks for this comprehensive post. I would add that X's defensive limits surely must be magnified due to Devers' similar defensive limits. IOW, there must be some sort of cumulative effect from having two negative defensive players next to each other.
Bogaerts and Devers are both poor defenders but for really different reasons. X is a statue with extremely limited range but he can make routine plays and is sure handed.
Raffy has pretty good range, can get to balls Bogey can’t even sniff, but he has a problem with the routine play (specifically throwing the ball).
Add it up and it would definitely improve the team if one of them could move.
Personally, I think Bogaerts moving to 2nd and getting a better defensive SS (honestly, the only player that I think X would even consider moving for is Correa) would make a world of difference
 

jon abbey

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edoug

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Trying to google Bogaerts’ vaccination status, I did find this hilarious obit of the 2021 Sox season, published Sept 1 by John Tomase.

“let's be real. The season is over. It expired on Aug. 31, and what's left is another 33 days of string that will play itself out until the regular season finale on Oct. 3 in Washington, D.C.”

https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/red-sox/xander-bogaerts-trudges-field-and-red-sox-season-goes-down-him?amp
That's why Tomase is so beloved here. As much of a baseball genius he is, he didn't realize if the season ended on that day the Sox would at least have been in the Wild Card game.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I did a quick game log check from last season and it appears that Bogaerts played in a 4 games series at Toronto in early August. IIRC non vaxxed players weren't allowed to play there.
I don't think the bolded is true. When Will Venable tested positive and had to quarantine in Toronto, Tom Goodwin was considered a close contact to Venable and also had to quarantine there, and we know he wasn't vaxxed at the time. Either there was a special exemption for team personnel last year so that negative tests allowed them to cross the border, or Canada has changed the rules since then.
 

YTF

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I don't think the bolded is true. When Will Venable tested positive and had to quarantine in Toronto, Tom Goodwin was considered a close contact to Venable and also had to quarantine there, and we know he wasn't vaxxed at the time. Either there was a special exemption for team personnel last year so that negative tests allowed them to cross the border, or Canada has changed the rules since then.
You are correct. It looks like Canada didn't ban unvaxxed athletes until January.
 
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