Winter Meetings 2018: Rumors and Speculation

[Tyrone Biggums]

What on earth does this even mean, and why should anybody care about it?



This is a classic case of argument by assertion. The fact that you don't think JD Martinez is an elite power hitter is not evidence for the proposition that JD Martinez is not an elite power hitter.



You're projecting your own fallacy onto your opponents here.




You're contradicting yourself. On the one hand, Martinez isn't even as good as Betts, OTOH, he'll be forced for the first time to fend for himself in a lineup without anybody nearly as good as him. Which is it?

Look, we all get it that you have a deep-seated aversion to the idea of signing Martinez, but honestly, you're doing a really poor job of laying out a persuasive case. There are reasons to be unenthusiastic about a JDM signing, mostly the fact that it's a long time and a lot of money to commit to a guy who only does one thing well, even if he does it really, really well. But all this stuff about him not being "THE guy", or your attempts to paint a career-best, but not out-of-career-context, half-season as so "bonkers" that it becomes almost an argument against his offensive ability....this stuff is not persuasive.

Not being the guy means that he's never been that one guy in the lineup who is expected to anchor. I've already gone into the money and years aspect about JD. No one is saying he doesn't hit well. But he's also going to be 31 next year and coming off a career best season. You pay JD 30 million then you are left with the Panda,Hanley deals this year and later Sale,Betts future contract, before even getting to X or JBJ. So while I understand not wanting to waste Sale or his prime he's a couple years younger than JD. You aren't wasting it by trying to be creative and finding a guy like Matt Adams who is flawed but he also only does one thing pretty well. Just not nearly at the level of JD. However one player will cost 4 million and the other will cost 27-30 million. Same thing just happened with Moreland vs Hosmer. 6.5 for Moreland is a much better buy than giving Hosmer a ridiculous contract because you have a "need". The Betts comment was referring to him not being as good of an overall player. Which he's not.

Schwarber will cost players but won't screw up your payroll. Lets be clear. I don't have an aversion to signing JD to a reasonable deal. The aversion comes in when his contract is 27-30 million and at that point you're better off saving your bullets for Harper/Machado and if that doesn't work then use the money to lock up the core. JD Martinez at 20 million is a good deal. 25 million? I can live with. 30 million and its pointless when you know what kind of class comes out next year.

 

[moondog80]

I’ve been part of it, but we’ve been going around in circles with the JD Martinez talk for at least a week now.

 

[Moviegoer]

And he’s cost the Marlins like 300 runs in way less time.

That's some high quality smart-assery right there. Makes slogging through the JDM intellectual merry-go-round worth it.

 

[Sampo Gida]

And he’s cost the Marlins like 300 runs in way less time.

But the money he has saved, the money, over 300 million and counting. Not even counting the ticket sales department payroll, he can cut half of the staff.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Honestly curious ... were you speaking literally when you implied Harper/Machado might double a salary of $25M-35M per year? Or was that a figure of speech? I don't really know what to expect those two to garner on the FA market, but I was imagining high $30M's as an AAV, maybe $40M tops. Beyond that and you're committing almost a quarter of your entire pre-luxury tax payroll to a single player.

Total dollars.

 

[MRBOSTONSPORTS]

Not being the guy means that he's never been that one guy in the lineup who is expected to anchor. I've already gone into the money and years aspect about JD. No one is saying he doesn't hit well. But he's also going to be 31 next year and coming off a career best season. You pay JD 30 million then you are left with the Panda,Hanley deals this year and later Sale,Betts future contract, before even getting to X or JBJ. So while I understand not wanting to waste Sale or his prime he's a couple years younger than JD. You aren't wasting it by trying to be creative and finding a guy like Matt Adams who is flawed but he also only does one thing pretty well. Just not nearly at the level of JD. However one player will cost 4 million and the other will cost 27-30 million. Same thing just happened with Moreland vs Hosmer. 6.5 for Moreland is a much better buy than giving Hosmer a ridiculous contract because you have a "need". The Betts comment was referring to him not being as good of an overall player. Which he's not.

Schwarber will cost players but won't screw up your payroll. Lets be clear. I don't have an aversion to signing JD to a reasonable deal. The aversion comes in when his contract is 27-30 million and at that point you're better off saving your bullets for Harper/Machado and if that doesn't work then use the money to lock up the core. JD Martinez at 20 million is a good deal. 25 million? I can live with. 30 million and its pointless when you know what kind of class comes out next year.

I agree JD Marinez at 20 million a good deal, but not so much at 28-30 million. I would have gave Stanton 28-30 million but that boat has sailed.
Better off passing on JD if he wants 28-30 million a year.

 

[soxhop411]

 

[DisgruntledSoxFan77]

Exciting times we live in that this qualifies as news

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Jeter then asked him about his hopes and dreams

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Jeter then asked him about his hopes and dreams

Aren't we at the point where he gives him the gift basket?

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Aren't we at the point where he gives him the gift basket?

Like

 

[Moviegoer]

The Jeter jabs the last couple pages in here have been truly exceptional.

 

[DeadlySplitter]

Marlins man gets a press conference??

 

[nighthob]

The Jeter jabs the last couple pages in here have been truly exceptional.

When it comes to Jeter it’s always best to get your shots as soon as possible.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Marlins man gets a press conference??

It was a town hall event that MIA put on for fans to meet Jeter and ask questions

 

[Green Monster]

The Jeter jabs the last couple pages in here have been truly exceptional.

re2ject

 

[CurtieLeskanic]

Dave Cameron at FG projected 6/156 ($26AAV) for JDM. Let's say that's going to be the case. Carlos Santana was projected for 4/72 ($18AAV) but got 3/60 ($20AAV), choosing $ over years

Do we add that 6th year and get JDM in the $24-26M range
OR
Offer 5 years and pay him more in the $27-30M

From the sound of it, Door #3, to exit stage left and sign someone like Matt Kemp to be the LF/DH platoon with Benny, sounds more palatable than it did immediately after the Stanton trade.

 

[Mueller's Twin Grannies]

Dave Cameron at FG projected 6/156 ($26AAV) for JDM. Let's say that's going to be the case. Carlos Santana was projected for 4/72 ($18AAV) but got 3/60 ($20AAV), choosing $ over years

Do we add that 6th year and get JDM in the $24-26M range
OR
Offer 5 years and pay him more in the $27-30M

From the sound of it, Door #3, to exit stage left and sign someone like Matt Kemp to be the LF/DH platoon with Benny, sounds more palatable than it did immediately after the Stanton trade.

The guy who just got traded in a big deal the other day? That might be a tough signing to make.

 

[chawson]

The guy who just got traded in a big deal the other day? That might be a tough signing to make.

Maybe not. Rumor is he could be DFA’d.

Not that it’s a great idea, but I suppose it’s worth considering. His bat’s been worth almost exactly what Hanley’s has from 2015-17.

Ramirez .261/.328/.457 – 106 wRC+
Kemp .269/.310/.470 – 107 wRC+

If Kemp were cut, he’d essentially replace Hanley's bat at league minimum, which would allow us to DFA Hanley without triggering his 2019 option. Illustrates Hanley's value if nothing else.

 

[Alex Cole's Rec Specs]

Maybe not. Rumor is he could be DFA’d.

Not that it’s a great idea, but I suppose it’s worth considering. His bat’s been worth almost exactly what Hanley’s has from 2015-17.

Ramirez .261/.328/.457 – 106 wRC+
Kemp .269/.310/.470 – 107 wRC+

If Kemp were cut, he’d essentially replace Hanley's bat at league minimum, which would allow us to DFA Hanley without triggering his 2019 option. Illustrates Hanley's value if nothing else.

I believe that cutting Hanley automatically triggers his option.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

I believe that cutting Hanley automatically triggers his option.

Speier says no.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2017/10/18/would-red-sox-better-off-without-hanley-ramirez/Y4qb9BbJXGdfUMzN9AHeoM/story.html

Yet releasing Ramirez might permit the Sox to add a player who would be a more reliable roster fit in 2018 while ensuring that they wouldn’t be on the hook for his $22 million vesting option in 2019.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Kemp is basically Hanley's doppelgänger. Similar age (9 months apart), very similar contract terms (though Kemp's 2019 is guaranteed, not vesting), similar skill set and career arc. The main difference is positional availability--Kemp is strictly a DH/5th OF; he's a very poor man's J.D. Martinez. We know Hanley has the defensive skills to platoon with Moreland at 1B, where Kemp would be learning a new position to do that. OTOH, swapping Hanley for Kemp would obviate the clubhouse issue of Hanley being bitter about being platooned out of his vesting option.

Speier says no

So does the vesting option just disappear in this scenario? Or does it become the responsibility of the team that picks him up?

EDIT: Thanks to Chawson for pointing out that I miscalculated the age difference -- Hanley is nine months older than Kemp, not three months younger.

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

Kemp is basically Hanley's doppelgänger. Same age (just 3 months apart), very similar contract terms (though Kemp's 2019 is guaranteed, not vesting), similar skill set and career arc. The main difference is positional availability--Kemp is strictly a DH/5th OF; he's a very poor man's J.D. Martinez. We know Hanley has the defensive skills to platoon with Moreland at 1B, where Kemp would be learning a new position to do that. OTOH, swapping Hanley for Kemp would obviate the clubhouse issue of Hanley being bitter about being platooned out of his vesting option.



So does the vesting option just disappear in this scenario? Or does it become the responsibility of the team that picks him up?

One assumes that would be the case if someone actually claims him. But if he's released (after passing through waivers unclaimed) then the option disappears.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

So does the vesting option just disappear in this scenario? Or does it become the responsibility of the team that picks him up?

I would guess it disappears if he clears waivers and is given an outright release. But if a team were to claim him, they'd be taking on his existing contract so it would be their responsibility (and the Sox would be out from under responsibility entirely, so a pipedream scenario).

What I now wonder is if he's given his outright release and the Red Sox pay out his contract just like they did with Sandoval, if another team picks him up for league minimum and he manages to accumulate enough plate appearances with that new team to have triggered the option, would it then come into play? I mean, for the length of the original deal with Sandoval, any salary he makes from the Giants is credited to the Red Sox against the original deal, so in effect, the contract still exists. Does that hold for incentive-based things such as bonuses or options as well?

I'm just envisioning a scenario in which the Red Sox release Hanley at the end of spring training and he signs on for the minimum to DH in Tampa or something, and then he has a decent year, accumulating 450 or so plate appearances. Is there a case to be made that the Red Sox owe him the 2019 option at that point?

 

[chawson]

The Giants trading their only living outfielder in the Longoria trade suggests they've got another center fielder coming in. Could mean Cain or it could mean Bradley.

 

[Harry Hooper]

Speier says no.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2017/10/18/would-red-sox-better-off-without-hanley-ramirez/Y4qb9BbJXGdfUMzN9AHeoM/story.html

Yes, we've seen Speier's piece, but he seems to be on an island with that view. Some confirmation would be most welcome.

 

[Pozo the Clown]

The Giants trading their only living outfielder in the Longoria trade suggests they've got another center-fielder coming in. Could mean Cain or it could mean Bradley.

The Giants acquisition of Longoria may mean that there's 1 less potential suitor in the JDM sweeps.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

The Giants trading their only living outfielder in the Longoria trade suggests they've got another center fielder coming in. Could mean Cain or it could mean Bradley.

I'd bet on it being Cain if it's anyone. What do the Giants have that the Red Sox would want that is worth trading JBJ?

 

[Lars The Wanderer]

The Giants may just go with Steven Duggar in CF. I'm not sure this means there's another trade in the works.

 

[chawson]

The Giants acquisition of Longoria may mean that there's 1 less potential suitor in the JDM sweeps.

Could go either way. They need three outfielders and are firmly in GFIN mode.

 

[Puffy]

Lorenzo Cain is a nice player. Someone is going to get a good deal on him this winter if he goes for the prices that are projected for him.

 

[Tangled Up In Red]

I don't get the Longoria trade from the Rays perspective. Face of the franchise, quality player, reasonable contract...

 

[Puffy]

I don't get the Longoria trade from the Rays perspective. Face of the franchise, quality player, reasonable contract...

A bit perplexing to me too, especially due to the relatively light haul. On the other hand, the Rays could sign basically the same profile and production (Todd Frazier) for half the money and years that Longoria was owed...

 

[Wingack]

The Giants acquisition of Longoria may mean that there's 1 less potential suitor in the JDM sweeps.

Martinez plays third base?

 

[moondog80]

I don't get the Longoria trade from the Rays perspective. Face of the franchise, quality player, reasonable contract...

He's not as good as his reputation and very likely to get worse over the next 5 years.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Martinez plays third base?

Well, it's not like he plays the outfield either.

 

[Wingack]

Well, it's not like he plays the outfield either.

Haha, good point.

Honestly I see this as them going harder for JDM. They could have sold off and they clearly are not, this team wants to win more with Posey and MadBum. I don’t see how anyone could see this as a sign they are passing on Martinez.

 

[E5 Yaz]

He's not as good as his reputation and very likely to get worse over the next 5 years.

Then again, aren't we all

 

[grimshaw]

Regarding vesting options and new teams from today's fangraphs chat.
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/dave-cameron-fangraphs-chat-12-20-17/
Dave Cameron
12:24
"If you get released, your current contract doesn't carry over to the new team. Your contract only goes with you if you're traded or claimed on waivers."

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Regarding vesting options and new teams from today's fangraphs chat.
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/dave-cameron-fangraphs-chat-12-20-17/
Dave Cameron
12:24
If you get released, your current contract doesn't carry over to the new team. Your contract only goes with you if you're traded or claimed on waivers.

Wow, Cameron is really a charter member of the Dave Dombrowski Fan Club, isn't he?

 

[MikeM]

I don't get the Longoria trade from the Rays perspective. Face of the franchise, quality player, reasonable contract...

Look at his last 4 seasons as a whole. It's a pretty good reminder that players who start early have a tendency to peak early, and that sometimes locking up a guy long term on a "team friendly" deal after you already squeezed the value out of his controllable years can still play out to be a bad overall idea.

I totally get that SF was looking to be splurge'y this offseason, but I'm still surprised they took this specific gamble given their current lineup and surrounding payroll situation. It's not 2013 anymore, and that is a lot of years left on a 32yo you are basically hoping is going to remain closer to fairly average offensively then anything else.

 

[Pozo the Clown]

Honestly I see this as them going harder for JDM. They could have sold off and they clearly are not, this team wants to win more with Posey and MadBum. I don’t see how anyone could see this as a sign they are passing on Martinez.

1) The Giants do not want to surpass the Luxury Tax Threshold again in 2018;
2) They have multiple holes to fill;
3) They have limited wiggle room to fill said holes and stay below the threshold.

They MAY still go after JDM, but there's a decent chance they'll focus elsewhere.

Here's an interesting article: https://www.mccoveychronicles.com/2017/12/19/16797622/sf-giants-luxury-tax-payroll-offseason-free-agency

 

[Sampo Gida]

A bit perplexing to me too, especially due to the relatively light haul. On the other hand, the Rays could sign basically the same profile and production (Todd Frazier) for half the money and years that Longoria was owed...

We could probably do the same with Pedroia but franchise icon on reasonable salary and not a great return so yeah, money.

In the Rays case I guess they are betting that any drop in revenue will be made up with revenue sharing. I guess the 50 million thry get with the MLBAM shares sold to Disney helps as well (alternatively they could have spent some of it and built a better team for 2018)

With the Rays and Orioles seemingly ready to wave the white flag on 2018 this could easily be worth 5 Wins or more to both the Yankees and Red Sox. Going back to the days where we had 2 AL East teams losing close to 100 games. Those were the days

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Wow, Cameron is really a charter member of the Dave Dombrowski Fan Club, isn't he?

He’s a realist who understands the DDski Red Sox are J.A.T.

His criticism about not using more advanced stats like linear weights... check!

His criticism about trading JBJ to open up space for a defensive stiff... check!

His criticism about opening owners’ wallets for brand-name players... check!

His criticism about trading away loads of his organization’s best prospects... check!

 

[Wingack]

1) The Giants do not want to surpass the Luxury Tax Threshold again in 2018;
2) They have multiple holes to fill;
3) They have limited wiggle room to fill said holes and stay below the threshold.

They MAY still go after JDM, but there's a decent chance they'll focus elsewhere.

Here's an interesting article: https://www.mccoveychronicles.com/2017/12/19/16797622/sf-giants-luxury-tax-payroll-offseason-free-agency

That all makes sense, except that acquiring Longoria doesn't make any sense unless they are going for it.

 

[chawson]

It’s true. The Rays just dumped a two-win player on a 5/$86MM contract and got a top 100 prospect out of it. Taking back Span means it’s only $71MM they’re shedding, but that’s still great for them.

Weird to see Longoria age from on of the best values in baseball to a minor albatross.

 

[Harry Hooper]

1) The Giants do not want to surpass the Luxury Tax Threshold again in 2018;
2) They have multiple holes to fill;
3) They have limited wiggle room to fill said holes and stay below the threshold.

They MAY still go after JDM, but there's a decent chance they'll focus elsewhere.

Here's an interesting article: https://www.mccoveychronicles.com/2017/12/19/16797622/sf-giants-luxury-tax-payroll-offseason-free-agency

OK, so by adding Longoria and shedding Span (and Arroyo) the Giants' net increase to their payroll for 2018 is something like $3.5 million? That puts them in the neighborhood of roughly $12.5-13.5 million under the luxury tax threshold.

Oops, I meant to subtract and not add.

 

[moondog80]

Nats sign Matt Adams. 1 year, 4 mil plus 500K in incentives. In other words, the deal Mitch Moreland deserved.

 

[nvalvo]

If the Giants sign JDM, that's their offseason, they're over the CBT, and they have no one who can play CF.

It is highly unlikely that they will sign JDM. They are quite likely to sign Jarrod Dyson and one of the risky LFers: Michael Brantley and Carlos Gonzalez, which can probably be achieved for an AAV of around $10 with the creative use of options.

That would leave SF looking like this:

Lineup: Posey C, Belt 1B, Panik 2B, Longo 3B, Crawford SS; Brantley LF, Dyson CF, Pence RF
Rotation: Bumgarner, Cueto, Samardzija, Blach, Stratton
Bullpen: Dyson, Gearrin, Strickland, Kontos, Osich, etc.

They're not catching LA, but if you squint, some players bounce back reasonably, and they get good luck with health, that's a WC contender.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Nats sign Matt Adams. 1 year, 4 mil plus 500K in incentives. In other words, the deal Mitch Moreland deserved.

Matt Adams is coming off a 0.5 bWAR season. Moreland a 2.0 bWAR season. Yeah, I can see how they were deserving of equal contracts.

For what it's worth, Adams deal represents a 30% raise from his 2017 salary ($2.8M). Moreland's new deal is a 15% salary increase.