Winter Meetings 2018: Rumors and Speculation
- Thread starter Snodgrass'Muff
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Grandal's bat may have slipped some, but that slip still represents a fairly substantial upgrade over what I believe you can reasonably expect to get out of Leon next year and beyond. Which is especially appealing (imo) when you start looking past best case scenarios and upgrading the team through grand scale type acquisitions. In fact, I'd probably even go as far as to see if I had to bet on one projected 2019 FA for this Sox team to be seriously in on next winter...he'd be it after one of Leon/Vaz don't fluke out out for a 3rd straight year. Still fairly young, great framing reputation, adds a little pop to the lineup from the LHH side, can sub in a 1st. There is a lot to like as a solid roster fit here atm/imo.
I'll be really disappointed in DD if Grandal goes relatively cheap this winter in LA's get under the LT salary purge and he doesn't even check in there. More so then not digging up a decent outside Pedroia fill in for that matter. Plus on another note, how serious can we really take Realmuto requesting a trade as 3 year player? I doubt Miami cares enough to end up moving him atm.
You framed his offense in precisely the worst possible light you could. The last two years he's been 9 and 5 percent better than league average and his ISO jumped up to .173 while his BABIP normalized dropping from .357 in 2016 to .318 in 2017. I think your framing of his plate skills is unnecessarily pessimistic.
I also don't think there is that much of an advantage to be gained by framing skill these days. Most teams have at least one very good framer on staff (and the Sox still would with Leon), and it's a skill that can be taught. He grades out well defensively otherwise.
But the offer might be a little heavy. I think you'll need to include a "top prospect" so Chavis is likely necessary. And Miami is going to want a high floor close to the majors type so Shawaryn stays. Maybe you can keep Scherff out of it, though.
It does seem like a lot, and a bunch of contending teams (WAS, ARI, COL, LAA, etc.) need catching help.
Another of Miami's bad contracts, Martin Prado, was a reported trade target last year before going on the DL. If he's healthy, he's fwiw DD's kind of hitter — an elite contact guy.
If he can still play second base, he's a great Nunez replacement. His 2/$28.5 contract is way too much, but it'd reduce the cost of Realmuto plenty.
Returning to JDM for the moment, with Moreland now re-upped. Isn't it quite possible that DD is just not willing to pay top FA $ to the top FAs available this year? That he'd prefer to do a modest deal with a guy they know in Moreland and then wait JDM out, perhaps preferring to swing a Hanley-for-subsidized-Miggy deal rather than pay JDM $25M+ for 6+ years? Or even paste stuff together this season and save the powder for next year's FA class?
If he waits JDM out, what do people think the bottom of the JDM market is? At what point would AZ just be able to resign him (without clearing salary)? 5/$100? That's in the Upton range...
If he waits JDM out, what do people think the bottom of the JDM market is? At what point would AZ just be able to resign him (without clearing salary)? 5/$100? That's in the Upton range...
I'm not a fan of the Miggy proposals. He is under contract for $31M x 6 years and that is from age 35-40. Unless it somehow gets about 50% subsidized, I'd much rather have JDM for 6 years x $25M during ages 30-35. I would guess the bottom range for JDM is 5 x $25M if we get lucky.
Or behind a lot of smoke and early wishful thinking type tinkering that just wasn't going to happen, the Sox simply aren't comfortable fielding a payroll that goes significantly over the $200m mark. That is personally my best guess atm that makes the most sense out of signing Mitch Moreland right now. With DD's general lack of patience factoring in to why he then just wouldn't logically wait around (since I'm strongly guessing Moreland had zero other competitive offers out there) on the chance one of the better upside potential guys fell to within the same rough salary price range.
Which as a whole I'd also feel better about if I actually believed DD had it in him to cut bait mid-season on marginally competitive team btw. Cashing out on pieces like Kimbrel/Pom/Xander, stocking up on return prospects, getting back under the cap, ect ect. Which I certainly don't.
I was going off the fielding bible numbers of -15 in 2016 and -11 in 2017. Those numbers included being -18 to his right last year and -12 to his right in 2016.
Does he pass the eye test? I can't recall him making impressive plays to his right. Can anyone?
He made the Jeter jump and throw play in the hole quite a few times last season.
And Jeter was an awful defensive SS. Guys with guns at SS dont have to jump and throw very often
Baltimore Sun reporter reporting Orioles may consider dealing Machado to NY. I like to think its a plant to get DD to sweeten his offer. Could explain settling on Moreland at 1B
Dave Cameron does a pretty good job of making Cafardo look silly about what the Sox would need to acquire Machado.
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/lets-talk-about-manny-machados-trade-value/
"So Rodriguez may actually be a more valuable asset than Bogaerts, and might be pushing $40 to $50 million in value by himself. If you combine Rodriguez and Bogaerts, you’re looking at north of $70 million in value between them, and maybe as much as $90 million if you’re particularly bullish on the pair. As great as Manny Machado is, there’s just no way any rational calculation should suggest that a team should give up both Bogaerts and Rodriguez for rent-a-Machado. And the idea of that offer not being enough, and requiring a prospect on top of the package? That’s just crazy pants."
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/lets-talk-about-manny-machados-trade-value/
"So Rodriguez may actually be a more valuable asset than Bogaerts, and might be pushing $40 to $50 million in value by himself. If you combine Rodriguez and Bogaerts, you’re looking at north of $70 million in value between them, and maybe as much as $90 million if you’re particularly bullish on the pair. As great as Manny Machado is, there’s just no way any rational calculation should suggest that a team should give up both Bogaerts and Rodriguez for rent-a-Machado. And the idea of that offer not being enough, and requiring a prospect on top of the package? That’s just crazy pants."
Jeter was never an awful defensive SS. He was overrated and never deserved his Gold Gloves, but he was never awful. He was average to slightly below average. Not everyone is Andrelton Simmons.
I'd trade X and ERod for Machado everyday of the week. X hasn't become what we hoped for and ERod has struggled to stay healthy, and even when he is isn't otherworldly. Given the Sox need for power, and the fact that Machado plays excellent D, I just don't get why anyone wouldn't be in favor of that as long as prospect isn't an elite one and they have some reasonable expectation that he will sign an extension.
To be honest, I'm surprised that this case has to be made explicitly, especially around here. I think it's pretty clear that Machado is almost certainly going to the FA market after next year, so you're getting a 1-year rental plus, presumably, a draft pick from QO. I understand that there is a knee-jerk emotional response to the Yankees, but to make moves for the sake of making a move would only hurt the future of this team. I know the team has needs, but they obviously need to balance the present with the (near) future.
And that’s why the Sox may not be a good match for Machado. The players to complete that trade are at the MLB level.
They could easily flip Bogaerts or Rodriguez for prospects if that is what Baltimore wants.
That's pretty accurate. There were things that he did legitimately well (most notably going back on pop ups). For the most part though, slightly below average is a fair assessment.
They could. I was responding to the reluctance to trade controllable assets at the MLB level for Machado.
Although, I don't think calling Machado a rental is fair. No team would trade for him without the intention to re-sign him. If the Sox went after him, you gotta believe they think they have a great shot at retaining him.
Cafardo's proposed trade was typically stupid. But trades are more than just swapping projected value. The Orioles don't have to trade Machado, they could keep him all year and then get a draft pick for him. Or they could keep him till the deadline, and maybe they would surprisingly be in contention. If not, they could trade him then, when the trade market might be better.
And if they do trade him this offseason, they would need to get something back to sell to their fanbase other than "we got more projected future value than we gave up." And any Red Sox offer would have to not just match up with expected future value, it would also have to beat any other offers from other teams, even if some other team overvalued one year of Machado.
So it's unlikely that the Red Sox could/would offer enough to get him this offseason. If they could, they could play him at third this year and let Devers DH and just focus on hitting. They'd get a year to try to get him to sign an extension, and if he did leave, they could give him a qualifying offer and get a draft pick.
It's pretty hard to come up with a realistic offer from Boston that the Orioles might accept though.
Eduardo Rodriguez might be an appealing piece for Baltimore, as he is cheap and under 4 years of control, and I'm sure a lot of their fans wish they had kept him when they had him and would like the idea of getting him back. The Orioles would also want some prospects too, and that's where it gets hard because the Red Sox would already be giving up a valuable young arm with multiple years of control left for a one-year rental, but the Orioles wouldn't want to give away the face of their team to a division rival for just one still unproven arm.
Mike Shawaryn might have some appeal to Baltimore, as he is in our top 10 and is a University of Maryland guy. Maybe Eduardo, Shawaryn and Brian Johnson could interest the Orioles, getting three young arms with lots of team control for a guy who is leaving. Maybe not, it'd still be a tough sell for them.
And if the Orioles really would trade with the Yankees, NY could top that offer easily if they wanted to. To get the most for Machado, Duquette should try to play the Yankees against Boston.
it's fun to imagine adding Machado to Boston without giving up as much talent as you'd expect a player like him to cost, but it's hard to come up with a deal that would work for both sides.
I don't think there is a match either, nor do I think the Sox are really going to make a serious run at him.
It doesn't make any sense to me that they would put their eggs in that basket.
I don't get why there isn't a match. The cost wouldn't be nearly as high as say, Chris Sale, and three way deals happen all the time when team A has the value but not the exact type of player that team B wants. Since Machado would play SS, Boagerts is an obvious guy to swap, either to Baltimore or somewhere else for prospects, and that gets you anywhere from 60 to 80% of the way there.
As long as we are speculating......how much would Boston have to subsidize and/or what additional piece would need to be added to make this deal?
Boston Gets
Realmuto
Prado
Miami Gets
Vazquez
Hanley (subsidized)
B.Johnson
Prado is owed a good lump of money that Miami surely would like to get rid of (2018-13.5, 2019-15), but he could serve a role for Boston by playing 2B until Pedroia returns and then spelling Devers at 3B to keep him fresh during his first full ML schedule. This would free up DH to sign JDMartinez and add 15+ homers at catcher.
I guess the question might be, where does Miami play Hanley? Does it necessitate them moving Bour?? Do they even care if they are moving enough salary???
Boston Gets
Realmuto
Prado
Miami Gets
Vazquez
Hanley (subsidized)
B.Johnson
Prado is owed a good lump of money that Miami surely would like to get rid of (2018-13.5, 2019-15), but he could serve a role for Boston by playing 2B until Pedroia returns and then spelling Devers at 3B to keep him fresh during his first full ML schedule. This would free up DH to sign JDMartinez and add 15+ homers at catcher.
I guess the question might be, where does Miami play Hanley? Does it necessitate them moving Bour?? Do they even care if they are moving enough salary???
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This would be the most likely scenario and IMO the best one. If they want to spend 25-30 million on a player it should be a star coming back. Yes I understand JD Martinez has a wonderful track record that has been skewed by his second half this year a tad bit. But is he an elite player? The answer is no. He's an awful defensive player and the possibility remains that he prefers to play the outfield. Which would be an absolute liability especially if he busts or only hits 25-30 homers a year. You need to have discipline to wait it out and do whats best for the organization. Betts and Sale are coming up in a couple years. As is Xander and JBJ. Someone is probably going to go and thats without the Sox signing a guy like JD. Sign him and then you can pretty much kiss Xander and JBJ good bye in the future.
What is a better core? JBJ Xander Sale Betts Devers Benny? Sale Betts Machado Devers Benny? Sale Betts Harper Devers Benny? or JD Martinez Sale Betts Devers and Benny? Those are really your 4 choices and each one I guess has their plusses and minuses. But if money is semi similar within the 5-7 million a year range then go for the better player. Just my opinion. I'm just not sure how we can say the Sox can't get Harper or Machado when we're looking at the prospect of paying a very flawed player close to 30 million. Those players are going to be in the 35-40 million range. Whats another 5-10 million for a much better player?
As far as the bottom of the market. The absolute best case scenario is they lock him up for 140-160 with an opt out. The Santana deal set the bar up a lot from what a lot of posters thought would be the baseline for this. JD being a much better player than Santana deserves more and will get more. 5/100 is a pipe dream.
I agree that 5/100 is a pipe dream, but I am wondering if DD is waiting to see if his price will drop to something like 5/150 for instance. I think the years are more problematic then the money. If Martinez doesn't get off his demands for seven years I think pivoting to Bruce would not be a bad idea. I just read somewhere that he would be willing to take a four year deal. He is not a high OBP guy but he does slug the ball and will require a shorter commitment.
Xander has 2 years control, one more year is something I guess but not a lot
DRS had him at -13 runs below average per year from 2002 on. He had a 3 yr stretch where he was -23 runs below average per year
"According to two historical play-by-play-based systems, Baseball Prospectus’s Fielding Runs Above Average and Baseball-Reference’s Total Zone, Jeter has cost his team more in the field than any other player in history, with both methods assessing the damage at 230 to 260 runs."
http://grantland.com/features/the-tragedy-derek-jeter-defense/
http://grantland.com/features/the-tragedy-derek-jeter-defense/
I actually mentioned upthread that I thought Bogaerts or E-Rod straight up for Machado was a slight overpay. I just don't think in Bogaerts case that it's wise to move him given the lack of shortstops in the system. They would need to expend more farm resources to get another one - quite a few for a good one. I don't expect Machado would stay so that is a pretty big risk.
I guess I should have phrased it that, on paper they could make a deal work, but I don't think it makes sense with the two shortstops.
Keep in mind that the rumor was Baltimore asked for Torres, a top 3 prospect in the game, for Machado. Could be anti-Yankee bias, as reported but if that is the asking price, I'm not sure anyone ponies up what Baltimore might be looking for. Especially in the division.
You keep insisting Martinez isn't a star and isn't elite. But you've done absolutely nothing top back that opinion up. So I'll do some of your homework for you. Let's start with the myth that he only looks like an elite hitter because of an unsustainable second half in Arizona.
2017 in Detroit: 160 wRC+ with 16 HR
2017 in Arizona: 172 wRC+ with 29 HR
So if we project his 1st half over a full season instead of using his Arizona stint, that's still a 160 wRC+ with 33 HR on the year. That means he hit an extra 12 or so.
Now let's look at him over the last three years with that change. He goes from 105 HR to 93, which ties him with Paul Goldschmidt for 19th in the majors.
His unadjusted slugging percentage is .580, tied for 3rd with Giancarlo Stanton. Even if we scale it back a bit for his Arizona stint he's not dropping out of the top 10. 10th on the list is Freddie Freeman at .546. The difference between what he did in Detroit and what he did in Arizona doesn't cover that much ground.
His unadjusted wRC+ in those three years is 147. Those 62 games with a 12% difference in production aren't dropping him very far against his total games played (397, making Arizona just 15.6% of his total production). He might fall as far as a 143 wRC+ or so, which would tie him with Kris Bryant and Staton again.
JD Martinez is an elite player. He's one of the very best hitters in the entire world even accounting for time missed due to injuries.
Is his defense in right field bad? Yeah, no doubt. Would it be as bad in left? Probably not. Would it be as bad in left at Fenway? Absolutely not. Besides, he's probably not losing much value, if any, by moving from RF to DH since the difference in runs lost as part of the positional adjustment is 10 runs, and there's a pretty good argument to be made that he's around 10 runs lost defensively where he has played the last few years.
Shifting him to DH would basically give you David Ortiz circa 2013-2016. He is exactly what this team needs exactly when they need it. Passing because "he's not a star" is idiotic. Please stop with that nonsense.
His other big season had him crush it the entire first half and fade the 2nd half. He's also never been THE guy in a lineup. When you think of power hitters who do you think of? JD Martinez isn't who pops into your head first. Unless your argument is that JD Martinez is elite then of course it does. Heres the thing. I think we are all in agreement that there is almost no chance that we are getting in Boston the 2nd half of 2017 version of JD Martinez. That was an elite season overall that was fueled by a bonkers 2nd half. The chances of him going that nuts again are slim to none. We both know that. So why bring up his wRC from 2017 as a selling point? Would you take him on your team over Harper, Trout, Machado, Goldy, Bryant, Stanton, Votto or any other elite players over the course of the next couple of years? No. I wouldn't take him over Betts. Honestly Betts is a more complete player.
Personally since I get the feeling DD can't help himself I have no doubt the Sox will be the high bidder for JD. So I hope that you're right about him being an elite player in 2018. I have grave doubts though. Its one thing to post those numbers in a lineup that had Miggy or Goldy but its also another issue entirely to be the guy in that lineup. Defensively I would hope they never put him in the outfield unless someone needs a breather.
Like I said one of us is going to be "right" going forward on this guy. I hope its you since I'm about 99.9% sure he's a Redsox by the end of the month or early next.
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Harper, Trout, Goldschmidt, Bryant and Stanton are all most certainly not available. Machado maybe, but I don't think he's a fit with this organization. If Votto or Freeman can be had, they might be better options, especially as LHH - though it's not clear if Votto would waive his NTC to come here, especially as a potential DH.
I think adding that big bat into the middle of the lineup does far more than upgrade that one slot. Giving some protection to Mookie Betts makes him a better hitter. A better Mookie protects say Bogaerts or Benintendi. And so on. It spreads throughout the lineup, up and down.
I feel like you can attribute the Papi-sized void in the 2017 lineup as a big, big reason why virtually every single player regressed offensively last season.
It's Absolutely the main reason. But is JD Martinez David Ortiz? (Snod's numbers says he is but thats in a lineup where he was protected by Goldy and Miggy. You can argue he was the guy even when Manny was here) For better or worse once he signs the contract with the Sox he's going to have to be Papi. Might not be fair but when you sign a big deal certain expectations are there. He's a good player. But asking him to be that savior offensively I don't know if that will work. Nor do I really think its fair to the player. Put it this way, if I thought JD Martinez would cost 20-24 million then I wouldn't say a word because it wouldn't stop the Sox from resigning players in the future or even bringing in a big bat if needed next year. I'm looking at him however as closer to that 30 million a year mark. For a couple extra million and a few more years you can get younger players (Harper and Machado) that you know for sure can be the guy.
I'm sending the bill to you for the cleanup required of the coffee I just spit all over my office wall.
What do you mean by "protected" by Goldy and Miggy? Are you saying that just by virtue of being in the same lineup as an equal or superior hitter, Martinez was artificially improved or are you saying that he was protected in the traditional sense by having an equal or superior hitter behind him in the lineup? Because for his time in Arizona, he hit behind Goldschmidt. And in Detroit, he was generally hitting not only behind Cabrera but also Victor Martinez and Justin Upton. So he wasn't protected in that sense.
I can only assume you're implying that JD Martinez doesn't have the chops to be THE big bopper in a lineup, and your reasoning is because he's never had to do it before. Seems specious to me. Numbers don't lie. He's a very very very good hitter. Chances are good he will continue to be that very very very good hitter no matter where he plays or who else is in the lineup with him.
I'm saying that pitchers would rather pitch around Miggy and Goldy to get to him if necessary. Never said he wasn't a good hitter. I feel that his numbers would look different on the 2018 Red Sox than the 2017 Diamondbacks or the Tigers from the last couple of years. Between being the big guy in the lineup and having to live up to 28-30 million a year some type of regression should be expected. Maybe I'm wrong and he goes out there and hopefully hits 40 bombs. Numbers have variables to them. You can look at things like park factors, who he's in the lineup with, lefty/righty splits theres literally many ways to evaluate a hitter. His numbers look good. But at the same time would you rather have him at 30 million or Harper/Machado at 35-40? His numbers match up well. But at the same time you have a certain comfort with the other two to set the tone for the lineup that you might not have with JD.
Like I've been saying I hope I'm wrong since he's coming to Boston. But theres still questions that you normally shouldn't have with a 30 million a year talent. 20 million? Fine. All for it. 25? Ehhh maybe but anything over that is risky
You’re entitled to your opinion, man, but I don’t know what else to tell you. He’s one of the five most productive hitters in baseball the last four years pretty much no matter how you slice it.
Machado is on record saying he “lost all respect” for the Red Sox organization and Harper is liking Twitter posts from fans saying they can’t wait for him to be a Yankee. You wanna hitch your wagon to the hopes those guys are signing here long term?
Regarding Harper, it's widely expected he's either going to be a Yankee or he's going to go play with his best friend Kris Bryant on the Cubs. It's a complete pipedream to expect him to come to Boston.
Yes because I would rather the better player if the money is similar. Machado will have respect for whoever pays him. Hell the manager isn't even there anymore so he can just say he didn't agree with the culture of the 2017 team if he really gets called out on back tracking. Did we ever think Price would play on the same team as Papi after the "bad blood" they had? Sox showed him the money and its amazing what money can do.
As for Harper if the Sox offer the most then he'll come to Boston.
Miguel Cabrera had a 91 wRC+ with 16 HR in 2017. A 110 with 12 HR while Martinez was in Detroit. He wasn't providing any kind of protection (if such a thing actually exists) and Martinez still had a 160 wRC+ and 16 HR in that span.
The money won't be similar. Martinez will end up with 5 or 6 years and 150-175 million. Harper will at least double that. Machado might, too. And even if they can somehow extend Sale, you're still wasting another year of his prime before you fix the lineup.
What on earth does this even mean, and why should anybody care about it?
This is a classic case of argument by assertion. The fact that you don't think JD Martinez is an elite power hitter is not evidence for the proposition that JD Martinez is not an elite power hitter.
You're projecting your own fallacy onto your opponents here.
You're contradicting yourself. On the one hand, Martinez isn't even as good as Betts, OTOH, he'll be forced for the first time to fend for himself in a lineup without anybody nearly as good as him. Which is it?
Look, we all get it that you have a deep-seated aversion to the idea of signing Martinez, but honestly, you're doing a really poor job of laying out a persuasive case. There are reasons to be unenthusiastic about a JDM signing, mostly the fact that it's a long time and a lot of money to commit to a guy who only does one thing well, even if he does it really, really well. But all this stuff about him not being "THE guy", or your attempts to paint a career-best, but not out-of-career-context, half-season as so "bonkers" that it becomes almost an argument against his offensive ability....this stuff is not persuasive.
Honestly curious ... were you speaking literally when you implied Harper/Machado might double a salary of $25M-35M per year? Or was that a figure of speech? I don't really know what to expect those two to garner on the FA market, but I was imagining high $30M's as an AAV, maybe $40M tops. Beyond that and you're committing almost a quarter of your entire pre-luxury tax payroll to a single player.