Women’s World Cup ‘23 Game Thread (spoilers)

[InstaFace]

It's worth asking ourselves which of our injuries have been the most damaging to our title-defense chances.

- Sauerbrunn? Vlatko not trusting Cook (which is odd, Cook has looked great) has led him to put Ertz back there, limiting the ability of Julie Ertz to be a Tyler Adams-like monster for ball retrieval and snuffing out danger. Becky is 38, but still a standout for the Thorns; she was NWSL Second XI just last year.
- Swanson? She was going to be our starting striker, or at least our starting LW, and was in the form of her life coming into that Ireland friendly. She was scoring like half the WNT's goals. How much of an upgrade over Morgan would she have been, or over Rodman or Williams on the wing? She also gives you the flexibility to play a 4-4-2 pairing with Smith (as she does with Ella Stevens at her club). We've been very locked into our 4-3-3 this tournament.
- Macario? Her attacking instincts are world class, there's a reason she plays centrally. If she were here, I bet we'd be in a 4-2-3-1 using her as the CAM, or at least she'd replace Morgan as a false 9. She almost got back from her ACL, but wasn't quite ready.
- Lavelle only just getting back from injury? Obviously she was the queen on the chessboard in 2019, nobody had an answer for her, she found passes nobody else saw and could dribble the entire stadium. She looks much-diminished, and if we're relying on Horan and DeMelo we're missing a lot of creativity.
- Mewis? Either one, really. Kristie played the SheBelieves cup and looked great. Dunno what kept her out of the WWC squad. Li'l sis Sam, your 2020 FIFA World Player of the Year, has had knee issues requiring multiple surgeries going back two years. But a high-energy box-to-box presence would be great to have right now, because Horan is kinda not all that interested in tracking back.
- Press? Sure, she's getting up there in years, but a fit and in-form Press would be starting over Rodman on the RW, and what she gives up to Rodman in sheer pace, she makes up for in shiftiness and passing vision in the final third.

At least our fullbacks are healthy, I guess. But that's about it. And yeah, every team has injury issues, it's part of the game, and we're supposedly the deepest squad in the world. But we've probably had more than our share this time around, at the worst time. Give us back even just Mal or Cat and I bet you we go through as group winners, and feel a whole lot better about our chances in the knockouts.

 

[InstaFace]

View: https://twitter.com/odriozolite/status/1686317514643660801?s=46

OK, but the xG was 2.4 for the USA and 0.3 for Portugal. Nobody's looking at the passing density of Japan vs Spain and going "wow, Spain dominated this match".

Third game in a row that the scoreline did not track the xG, in a manner that's unflattering to us. Like in baseball, if you're out-creating the opponent, that predicts future success better than the actual results. So you'd have to expect that our finishing luck can even out. The Dutch goal was semi-fluky, and the Portugal chance at 91' accounted for almost half their xG for the entire game. We've conceded only 0.7 xG across 3 games, which is nearly 2015-level defense.

Here's ESPN's soccer stats guy with his usual in-depth breakdown:

View: https://twitter.com/ESPN_BillC/status/1686357076564393985


Plenty of reasons for optimism. Other than, ya know, Lavelle being suspended for the R16, which should mean "Ertz to the 6", or "change in formation" but in fact will mean Sanchez to the 8.

 

[67YAZ]

OK, but the xG was 2.4 for the USA and 0.3 for Portugal. Nobody's looking at the passing density of Japan vs Spain and going "wow, Spain dominated this match".

Third game in a row that the scoreline did not track the xG, in a manner that's unflattering to us. Like in baseball, if you're out-creating the opponent, that predicts future success better than the actual results. So you'd have to expect that our finishing luck can even out. The Dutch goal was semi-fluky, and the Portugal chance at 91' accounted for almost half their xG for the entire game. We've conceded only 0.7 xG across 3 games, which is nearly 2015-level defense.

Here's ESPN's soccer stats guy with his usual in-depth breakdown:

View: https://twitter.com/ESPN_BillC/status/1686357076564393985


Plenty of reasons for optimism. Other than, ya know, Lavelle being suspended for the R16, which should mean "Ertz to the 6", or "change in formation" but in fact will mean Sanchez to the 8.

Post-Olympics, Vlatko has not found a midfield combo that works. He's stuck to the 4-3-3 but lacks a true 6 without Ertz and plays Lavelle & Horan as dual 10s.

You might get away with that if you're rolling out 2019 Ertz. Here's Ertz's combined heat map from the 2019 WWC and 2020 SheBelieves Cup:



She's everywhere except in the middle of the pitch...because no one played through the middle against Julie Ertz. There's not a chance that Portugal could get into such a midfield passing rhythm against peak Julie Ertz.

But we don't really have any idea if Ertz can do this anymore. We're all screaming for her to play the 6 because even a diminished Ertz is better than Sulliva right now. But how diminished is Ertz? Is CB her only option right now?

I really wish Vlatko had decided to figure that out against Vietnam and not walk into the knockout rounds trying to solve the same problem he's been staring at for 2+ years.

I don't mean to rant at you. Vlatko just seems to provoke that reaction...from everyone. I do believe the finishing has been somewhat unlucky and a correction to could propel this squad. But the best sides the US has faced in in the last year - England, France, & Spain - have carved up the midfield. That is the problem.

Edit: Here's the exact tweet I was looking for illustrating Ertz dominance in 2019.

 

[SoxFanInCali]

- Mewis? Either one, really. Kristie played the SheBelieves cup and looked great. Dunno what kept her out of the WWC squad. Li'l sis Sam, your 2020 FIFA World Player of the Year, has had knee issues requiring multiple surgeries going back two years. But a high-energy box-to-box presence would be great to have right now, because Horan is kinda not all that interested in tracking back.

Kristie is in the squad, just hasn't gotten off the bench yet.

 

[Dummy Hoy]

OK, but the xG was 2.4 for the USA and 0.3 for Portugal. Nobody's looking at the passing density of Japan vs Spain and going "wow, Spain dominated this match".

You know enough to know the flaws in xG. You also know enough to see that those passing maps show the US has little to no cohesion through the lines, especially the midfield, and some key players are getting isolated as the US tries to run everything through Horan and down the left.

I don't think it's all doom and gloom but predictable tactics and questionable coaching decisions have put the number one team in the world (who were inches from getting knocked out in the group stage) into a position where they're going to need to play a very tough team in the R16 and aren't playing well going into it (and down their best IMO midfield conductor).

Edit: Removed unnecessary snark from me. My apologies

 

[InstaFace]

You know enough to know the flaws in xG. You also know enough to see that those passing maps show the US has little to no cohesion through the lines, especially the midfield, and some key players are getting isolated as the US tries to run everything through Horan and down the left.

I don't think it's all doom and gloom but predictable tactics and questionable coaching decisions have put the number one team in the world (who were inches from getting knocked out in the group stage) into a position where they're going to need to play a very tough team in the R16 and aren't playing well going into it (and down their best IMO midfield conductor).

I look forward to your 6000 word reply

xG isn't The Truth, but it does tell us something useful that isn't obvious from the score.

You're either a "finishing is a skill" person or you're a "finishing is random, accumulating xG is a skill" person. I lean much more towards the latter.

More to the point, I'm not one to ascribe all a team's failings to its manager, which has been the vogue with the USWNT since the pre-Sundhage days. Jill Ellis's team is less than the sum of its parts! She's getting out-coached! God, if you looked up the complaints about the team before / during the 2015 WWC you'd have thought she spent most of the tournament face-down in the mud. And admittedly, having Peak Hope Solo does cover up a lot of ills. But then the criticism remained relentless, and she went out and did it again with a lesser defense/GK and better midfield. All the complaints about "Questionable coaching decisions" are just echoes of the same things said about every WNT and MNT manager since I reached adulthood. And when even sophisticated soccer fans such as yourself have only one gear in which to complain about the team, and no manager ever satisfies them, I have a hard time taking it seriously.

Argentina was "inches from getting knocked out" too against the Netherlands last December, having blown a 2-goal lead, and that's after they lost to Saudi Arabia. Everyone had Scaloni's head on a pike... right up until he brought home the trophy. Same as it ever was.

Until I'm presented with a better model to think about soccer, I'll put my faith in the data, because let me tell you, the rants of soccer-watching humans are not an improvement to one's understanding. And the data says we've dominated each match, have had an incredible defense, and were very unlucky to not win 1 of the last 2 games, nevermind drawing both. So unless one wants to argue that Morgan has suddenly forgotten which part of her foot to hit the ball with, and her 0 goals from 14 shots and, what, 4 xG, is likely to continue, I think a lot of people are going to be underrating the USA's chances going forward.

 

[nolasoxfan]

I hope I’m wrong but Sweden is going to take this team apart. They need to move Ertz up to midfield for that game but I don’t trust Vlat to make any right move. I can’t remember watching a US team look this bad three games in a row ever. They just don’t seem to have any plan at all. It’s basically play for set pieces and try to play Morgan in behind.

Exactly how I feel. I haven’t watched every minute of every match, but what I have seen tells me that Sweden will most likely advance. That’s where I’d bet my dollar, anyway. Again, like you, I hope I’m wrong.

 

[InstaFace]

Post-Olympics, Vlatko has not found a midfield combo that works. He's stuck to the 4-3-3 but lacks a true 6 without Ertz and plays Lavelle & Horan as dual 10s.
...

I really wish Vlatko had decided to figure that out against Vietnam and not walk into the knockout rounds trying to solve the same problem he's been staring at for 2+ years.

I don't mean to rant at you. Vlatko just seems to provoke that reaction...from everyone. I do believe the finishing has been somewhat unlucky and a correction to [it] could propel this squad. But the best sides the US has faced in in the last year - England, France, & Spain - have carved up the midfield. That is the problem.

I am every bit as much a Julie Ertz stan as you. She's been my favorite women's player for a long long time, for all the reasons you state. It's a bit like how the Spanish talk about Busquets. I want nothing more than to see her unleashed at the 6 on Friday.

But if you're going to look to recent results, and cite a bunch of friendlies where we didn't have our first-choice squad, the least you can do is contend with the SheBelieves Cup where we played 3 also great sides - Japan, Brazil and Canada - and dominated them with largely the same roster as today. More recently than those friendlies.

What did the xG look like in those friendlies, though? fbref doesn't have the data and I don't have the time right this second to look it up.

 

[Nick Kaufman]

I don't follow women's soccer and I just switched to watch final few minutes of the game vs Portugal, only to see the announcers discussing how the USA wasn't playing well. Then I noticed that Rapinoe and Morgan were playing and I thought to myself, well this your problem. You can't have a 34 year old and a 38 year old be integral parts of a championship caliber team.

 

[Jimy Hendrix]

Was Morgan ineffective? I only watched highlights but she had some chances in those highlights.

In a vacuum I'd prefer a front line of Rodman - Smith - Williams but I have no problem with how Morgan has played the 9 so far this tournament. Our problems are mainly behind that line.

The front line doesn't matter to me particularly if they get no support from the rest of the team.

For whatever reason, even when the team is semi-clicking (which is the most it's ever done in the Vlatko era) that support rarely seems to come from the fullbacks, who hang back and tuck in a little and seem to basically never overlap ever ever except maybe sometimes after we're camped out in an opponent's half. When they do get that support it's from the midfielders coming forwards, but Portugal's diamond just snuffed that out and we never made any adjustments of any kind.

 

[Tony C]

Oh my God. Yes, that sucked and perhaps they will fall in the round of 16. But the “get off my lawn” bullshit from Lloyd and the Fox Sports asshats is almost as annoying as the misery in this thread (where all of the men spend 90+ minutes doing nothing but complain about everything that the US women do on the field). “This isn’t Mia Hamm’s USWNT” from whoever the talking man on the left is…STFU. Mia Hamm is older than I am - of course the culture has changed. She’d be the first one to say it, and then find a way to make it a positive and not a negative.

And how dare they smile and dance with friends and family after going through to the round of 16. How dare they show joy in any way. Carly Lloyd can shove it up right up Alexi Lalas’s ass. They deserve each other. She’s fucking miserable and holier-than-thou and always has been. And he’s the most over rated American soccer player ever has been making my ears bleed for 15 years now on Fox.

I despise the constant bitching and moaning unless the USWNT march perfectly through. You’d think they just lost 4-0. I, myself, would rather look forward to watching my country’s team again in the round of 16, than tear them down non-stop following a difficult match that did not show them at their best. Yes, yes, tearing them down will definitely help. Let’s do that.

Great post. If there's anything I hate is ex jocks like Lalas and Lloyd going on and on about the spirit and attitude that the new generation lacks. stfu.

 

[Dummy Hoy]

xG isn't The Truth, but it does tell us something useful that isn't obvious from the score.

Until I'm presented with a better model to think about soccer, I'll put my faith in the data, because let me tell you, the rants of soccer-watching humans are not an improvement to one's understanding.

Yet I presented you with data and did not give a soccer watching human rant.

If you want to look at xG and say everything will be fine, that's totally cool. You may be right. I guess we'll see.

 

[Jimy Hendrix]

Not a single winger or forward has a pass completion rate above 60% this World Cup, which says a lot about how isolated they are in attack. Morgan's the best at about 57% and it's grimmer from there. Naomi Girma, who has been great, is the only outfield player above 80%

Ertz somehow had under 60% as a CB last night.

 

[lars10]

Great post. If there's anything I hate is ex jocks like Lalas and Lloyd going on and on about the spirit and attitude that the new generation lacks. stfu.

Especially Lalas who has won… Fox loves him but there’s zero reason he should be doing the women’s World Cup.. he thinks talking slowly makes him sound profound.. and he talks slowly and loudly all the time. He’s soccer’s Felger.

 

[Ale Xander]

It was vs. China and all, but James is nonetheless a world class finisher.

 

[67YAZ]

Glad to see folks giving Girma her props. She’s so good at such a young age, already among the best CBs in the world. If she were a little taller and more of a force in the air, she’d be on track to be an all time great. But I think she’ll always have to be paired with a tall CB to balance the duties. But the way the game is evolving, Girma is going to thrive as a cornerstone player for club and country over the next decade. She’s the truth.

if I were Vlatko…I’d go 4-2-3-1 next match. England looked mighty impressive moving to 3ATB yesterday, but they have the coaching to pull that off. The US needs to take a more conservative, familiar step to change the rhythm. I’d put Cook in next to Girma, Ertz & Mewis in the pivots, and Horan at the 10. I start Smith up top flanked by Williams and Rodman. Morgan is my sub if we’re chasing the game at the hour.

Portugal exposed how much our FBs are out on islands. They need more support from the wingers and by having 2 central mids to help.

 

[Time to Mo Vaughn]

Incredible result by Jamaica to hold Brazil to a scoreless draw and as a result advancing to the knockout and eliminating Brazil.

 

[luckysox]

Incredible result by Jamaica to hold Brazil to a scoreless draw and as a result advancing to the knockout and eliminating Brazil.

Wish I got to watch this one live. I’ll have to catch a replay. Jamaica is a pretty inspiring squad.

 

[Dummy Hoy]

Incredible result by Jamaica to hold Brazil to a scoreless draw and as a result advancing to the knockout and eliminating Brazil.

Pretty sure they were holding bake sales and Marley tribute concerts to raise the funds to support the team.

All joking aside they were literally disbanded as a team as multiple times in the last 15-20 year, and the Marley family has been a big part of them getting the funds to restart the program. Great story.

 

[InstaFace]

Incredible result by Jamaica to hold Brazil to a scoreless draw and as a result advancing to the knockout and eliminating Brazil.

Yeah doing it once could be a fluke, doing it against both France and Brazil (and also Panama) is great team defense.

Very happy for them, given what their team has gone through to get respect, funding and reach success.

 

[Jimy Hendrix]

Glad to see folks giving Girma her props. She’s so good at such a young age, already among the best CBs in the world. If she were a little taller and more of a force in the air, she’d be on track to be an all time great. But I think she’ll always have to be paired with a tall CB to balance the duties. But the way the game is evolving, Girma is going to thrive as a cornerstone player for club and country over the next decade. She’s the truth.

if I were Vlatko…I’d go 4-2-3-1 next match. England looked mighty impressive moving to 3ATB yesterday, but they have the coaching to pull that off. The US needs to take a more conservative, familiar step to change the rhythm. I’d put Cook in next to Girma, Ertz & Mewis in the pivots, and Horan at the 10. I start Smith up top flanked by Williams and Rodman. Morgan is my sub if we’re chasing the game at the hour.

Portugal exposed how much our FBs are out on islands. They need more support from the wingers and by having 2 central mids to help.

Yeah, the way I think of Girma right now is that right as my favorite women's national team player ever Becky Sauerbrunn is fading away and winding down, along comes a defender with extremely similar characteristics (shorter but rangy and deeply cerebral one-woman cleanup crew who may also never get a goal because she is simply too valuable on cover defense to bring up on the set pieces), equal if not greater quality, and fifteen fewer years on the tire treads. It's a real treat.

 

[InstaFace]

Saying Girma is the best player on the USWNT right now is like saying Van Dyke is the best player on Liverpool. Even if she's not the one getting the glory, it's an entirely reasonable and justifiable opinion to hold. She might be the only American in a World Best XI right now (non-injured division). And she's only 23. When Sauerbrunn was 26 at the 2011 World Cup, she was a backup who only got into one game; she was likewise a sub for the 2012 Olympics. Her first real serious WWC where she was depended upon, she was already 30.

If you're going to take a defender with the #1 overall draft pick, you better be damn sure you're getting a world class player, so it took some balls by San Diego there.

 

[Ale Xander]

Disappointing for Brazil. Dont like when the play in blue. Even worse when they play someone in yellow. Happy for Allyson though.

 

[OCST]

Jamaica deserved the point. I saw the last 10+. They were tough. Brazil didn't get much of a sniff when they needed to. The only chances they generated came off Jamaica fouling in dumb spots, or having a go at goal and giving up a counter instead of dribbling for the corner flag - young-team mistakes. Brazil did not capitalize.

 

[Joe D Reid]

Interesting discussion between Press and Heath on the issues post-Portugal, with pretty wild shitting on the setup (preceded by a fun ethering of Canada):

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TAOOi3LlKE4

 

[Ale Xander]

Riley Tanner is Panamanian?

I feel we got more goals in that game than the first week combined. That first Panamanian goal was so awesome.

 

[Jimy Hendrix]

Riley Tanner is Panamanian?

I feel we got more goals in that game than the first week combined. That first Panamanian goal was so awesome.

Riley Tanner is from Michigan, but her mom was born in Panama City. My favorite detail, and I cannot for the life of me find the article where I saw it, is the fact that her nickname on the team is "Frozen" because she is the one braided blonde white lady on the team.

 

[OCST]

I don't follow women's soccer and I just switched to watch final few minutes of the game vs Portugal, only to see the announcers discussing how the USA wasn't playing well. Then I noticed that Rapinoe and Morgan were playing and I thought to myself, well this your problem. You can't have a 34 year old and a 38 year old be integral parts of a championship caliber team.

Well, not quite. It's possible for players of that age to perform at a high level, and to be important pieces. I can rattle off names, as can you.

The point is that they look like they feel old.

This piece from WaPo gets at it:

But here they are, well behind England, Japan, Colombia and others in terms of quality of play. The chemistry is all off. Everything they try to do is laborious. There is none of the joy and ruthlessness that has defined U.S. women’s soccer for decades.

(snip)

“I just have blind confidence in everything around us and in myself and the group,” Rapinoe said. “It has to [get better]. It just has to.”

You don't say you have blind confidence, when you do have it. You say things like "it has to get better," when you really don't think it will.

luckysox has a point. There's a real Debbie Downer vibe in the media and with some fans, including in this thread. It's a lot of holding this lot up to the giants of the recent past and saying they fall short. It's a dead end mindset. It sucks and it stinks and it sucks, just like when Rick Pitino pointed it out in circumstances that are eerily similiar. The problem is that the XI on the pitch feel that way, from what we can see, from their body language and the way they put themselves about (or don't). If you're reading this you've watched enough footy to know what it looks like when a side has the eye of the tiger. When they're "snapping into tackles." When they're "resolute," "own the middle of the park," "have their tails up," "asking questions," all that. We haven't seen a lot of that and it's conspicuous, because the sides that have won this uniform before have been some of the most formidable footballing machines we've seen with our own eyes. They're aware of that too and the pressure is getting to them. The USA crest is weighing them down, not inspiring them.

Can they turn it on? Sure. Consistently over four knockout rounds against tougher opposition? My head says no. I root anyway. I root for Everton every week FFS.

 

[Ale Xander]

Wow Italy blew it! What an own goal.

USA could have been playing RSA if they didn't suck in group stage. Congrats to the Dutch.

 

[67YAZ]

Uh oh Germany. As of half time they are not in a position to advance.

 

[67YAZ]

Korea are playing to win. They are not intimidated or holding back.

 

[67YAZ]

As I type that, Germany may have just scored an outrageous goal with an absurd backheel flick.

looked off but flag stayed down…

 

[67YAZ]

Ruled off by VAR. That was sick tho

 

[67YAZ]

Korea put on their tallest player, a 6ft striker, just to mark Popp. And it’s not really working. Popp is trying to will Germany to a win.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

SY Ji gets hurt a lot. And recovers pretty quickly

 

[Remagellan]

The refs are doing nothing about German aggression. That's never good for the world. Just ask Neville Chamberlain.

 

[LastTripleCrown]

South Korea are professional time wasters

 

[67YAZ]

There’s roughly players in the Korean box.

 

[67YAZ]

Germany out!

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

Germany out!

Hate to see it

 

[67YAZ]

By advancing out of the group stages in both men and women’s WC, the US is now a better footballing nation than Germany. Facts.

 

[Remagellan]

By advancing out of the group stages in both men and women’s WC, the US is now a better footballing nation than Germany. Facts.

Well, we do have Tom Brady.

 

[67YAZ]

Oh my god, that scene of the Morrocan team learning that Korea & Germany tied. Holy shit. Sports at its best.

 

[Remagellan]

First time three African nations in the KO stage.

 

[Pesky Pole]

Not that FIFA rankings are perfect but that‘s 2, 7, and 8 out at the group stage (Germany, Canada and Brazil).

 

[Remagellan]

Oh my god, that scene of the Morrocan team learning that Korea & Germany tied. Holy shit. Sports at its best.

This.

 

[Remagellan]

South Korea, "We're going home, and we're taking GERMANY with us."

 

[67YAZ]

 

[Joe D Reid]

Not that FIFA rankings are perfect but that‘s 2, 7, and 8 out at the group stage (Germany, Canada and Brazil).

This is also a useful thing to keep in mind when evaluating how the US has done, I suppose. The early stages of this tournament are just a different animal now.

 

[Jimy Hendrix]

This is also a useful thing to keep in mind when evaluating how the US has done, I suppose. The early stages of this tournament are just a different animal now.

We thought the story was "the chasing pack is catching up to the US! Oh no!" and maybe they still are, but the story seems to actually be that the rising tide of professionalization and playing options in the women's game is lifting all boats and the drop off from the top 10-15 to the rest of the field is getting smaller.