Year Two Yoshida

[jon abbey]

For reference… there was a guy in LF a few years ago that put up a -0.5 dWAR and an OPS+ of 99. That guy recently signed a 5/$75m contract that’s comparable to Yoshida.

That guy is Benintendi.

That deal was a disaster the moment he signed it, really makes me question if anyone watched him play in 2022. His defense is getting worse and he has zero power (10 HRs now in his last 1000+ ABs over two seasons), I said last winter that the Yoshida deal was a more promising one than the Benintendi one (and I agree that they are good to compare) and I still think that, but that is a very low bar IMO.

 

[Hee Sox Choi]

I can’t remember which site wrote it but Benintendi’s fantasy blurb was: “600 of the worst ABs you’ve ever seen.”

 

[Rovin Romine]

Interesting article on Yoshida at fangraphs: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/masataka-yoshida-lost-himself/

With this additional context, we can paint a pretty clear picture of Yoshida’s season. He started the season with his established approach and things were going well for him. In July, that approach started to unravel as he started swinging much more aggressively. His results on balls in play boosted his batting line that month, but everything collapsed once those hits stopped falling in. When he started slumping, he abandoned his extremely selective approach and his plate discipline never recovered. By the end of the year, his approach was completely unrecognizable from what it was in Japan.

With a full year of experience in the majors now under his belt, Yoshida has a better understanding of what to expect moving forward. His offseason training program was designed to better prepare him for the grind of a major league season, and being less fatigued should make it easier for him to return to form the next time he struggles. As he heads into his second year in the majors, he will need to lean on his excellent pitch recognition skills to sustain his success and pull him out of a slump when he goes cold. And when he inevitably scuffles again, he’ll need to remember why those skills are so critical to his success, so he doesn’t lose himself again.

I'd make a comment about the hitting coaches, but they seem to have life-tenure. Aggressivity.

 

[CarolinaBeerGuy]

Interesting article on Yoshida at fangraphs: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/masataka-yoshida-lost-himself/



I'd make a comment about the hitting coaches, but they seem to have life-tenure. Aggressivity.

Short lifespans. Fatse, Vazquez and Ortiz were all hired before the 2022 season after Tim Hyers left for Texas after 4 seasons. I’m not opposed to shaking things up again, however.

 

[Yo La Tengo]

Worth noting:

Yoshida underwent a procedure to resolve temporomandibular joint disorder (TMJ) in his jaw last fall. According to that report, Yoshida said his jaw would often tremble and sometimes come out of place and that he had constant headaches, especially after traveling.

 

[Harry Hooper]

Worth noting:

Yoshida underwent a procedure to resolve temporomandibular joint disorder (TMJ) in his jaw last fall. According to that report, Yoshida said his jaw would often tremble and sometimes come out of place and that he had constant headaches, especially after traveling.

His jaw is in the best shape of his life!

Seriously, though, glad to hear he got that fixed.

https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2024/02/red-sox-masataka-yoshida-confirms-winter-jaw-surgery-thinks-itll-help-in-24.html

 

[Rovin Romine]

Seriously, though, glad to hear he got that fixed.

I'm sure there was a lot of pressure/stress his first year in MLB. I don't doubt every little thing that helps him get more comfortable will be a plus.

I don't know if it's in the thread but there was some twitter reporting that the Sox were looking for a new interpreter for him.

 

[Rovin Romine]

Interesting article on Yoshida at fangraphs: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/masataka-yoshida-lost-himself/

I thought I'd bump this and ping @Frisbetarian, given that we had speculated about reasons for possible slumps and ongoing effectiveness earlier this off-season.

The article is a good deep-dive into his changed approach in the second half. I'm still sort of amazed that this kind of real-time data didn't make it to the hitting coaches, then to Yoshida, in the sense that it went on for months. Or that it got mangled or garbled along the way. Or that it was supplanted by the player's desire to do something different than what had led to a successful career in Japan (unlikely). Or that the Sox hitting coaches were (with the best of intentions) trying to tweak Yoshida's approach to mine it for potential (more likely.)

Assuming some of those scenarios above might be correct, it does make me wonder how large a sample size is required in the current org. to spot a problem and fix it. Even there caveats abound - I know some hitters can turn things around overnight with tweaks (e.g., Millar), and some can't or don't.

Regardless, I'm happy the article was written, as I think some sunlight on the issue might be good for the player - the takeaway is that he needs to go back to doing the thing he does well. Then maybe someone tinkers.

 

[InsideTheParker]

Just another reminder to us fans that there is often (almost always?) a reason a good player fails to live up to expectations.
"He sucks" doesn't cover it.

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

I thought I'd bump this and ping @Frisbetarian, given that we had speculated about reasons for possible slumps and ongoing effectiveness earlier this off-season.

The article is a good deep-dive into his changed approach in the second half. I'm still sort of amazed that this kind of real-time data didn't make it to the hitting coaches, then to Yoshida, in the sense that it went on for months. Or that it got mangled or garbled along the way. Or that it was supplanted by the player's desire to do something different than what had led to a successful career in Japan (unlikely). Or that the Sox hitting coaches were (with the best of intentions) trying to tweak Yoshida's approach to mine it for potential (more likely.)

Assuming some of those scenarios above might be correct, it does make me wonder how large a sample size is required in the current org. to spot a problem and fix it. Even there caveats abound - I know some hitters can turn things around overnight with tweaks (e.g., Millar), and some can't or don't.

Regardless, I'm happy the article was written, as I think some sunlight on the issue might be good for the player - the takeaway is that he needs to go back to doing the thing he does well. Then maybe someone tinkers.

There’s no way they didn’t know exactly what the issue was. Maybe not in as much detail as in the fangraphs article, but I feel like Cora started talking about the BB rate not long after the ASB.

In game threads even before the ASB, when he was going 30 PAs without walking, we were talking about it. And while we are smart and the coaching staff’s acumen can be debated, we weren’t the only ones who saw it, including opponents who realized they didn’t need to throw strikes.

Once you saw it, you couldn’t stop seeing it even with the eye test. He was trying to hit his way out of poor plate discipline. I think everyone knew, but just couldn’t get him to stop. Obviously telling the player “have better pitch recognition” is rarely going to be a solution. Could the staff have been more creative? Maybe. I think sometimes when fans loose confidence in the coaching staff it is human nature to attribute things to the staff. But sometimes it really is on the player.

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

Just another reminder to us fans that there is often (almost always?) a reason a good player fails to live up to expectations.
"He sucks" doesn't cover it.

But he did stink. The fangraphs article is just helping us understand why. Unfortunately the book is very much still out on whether he is a good player. Or I guess good hitter. I think the book on whether he is a good fielder is not completely written, but we have the plot.

I would like to get some solace from the fangraphs article that his struggles were the result of a secret problem that is fixable. If that is your takeaway, it could just be the difference between whether you and I are glass half empty or full types, but I see a player still very much at a crossroads.

 

[Rovin Romine]

There’s no way they didn’t know exactly what the issue was. Maybe not in as much detail as in the fangraphs article, but I feel like Cora started talking about the BB rate not long after the ASB.

In game threads even before the ASB, when he was going 30 PAs without walking, we were talking about it. And while we are smart and the coaching staff’s acumen can be debated, we weren’t the only ones who saw it, including opponents who realized they didn’t need to throw strikes.

Once you saw it, you couldn’t stop seeing it even with the eye test. He was trying to hit his way out of poor plate discipline. I think everyone knew, but just couldn’t get him to stop. Obviously telling the player “have better pitch recognition” is rarely going to be a solution. Could the staff have been more creative? Maybe. I think sometimes when fans loose confidence in the coaching staff it is human nature to attribute things to the staff. But sometimes it really is on the player.

I started a separate thread for the hitting coaches as I'm wondering (as I have for a bit) whether this is endemic.

I do take your point about not knowing how they did or didn't implement any potential fix. And I'd concede that there are individual cases of a player just not being able to change their approach, or there being a true miscommunication, or there just being a kind of talent ceiling that gets hit which the player can't go beyond.

At the same time though, I just think it's weird that they couldn't (possibly) "get through to" Yoshida. Mostly because it would involve encouraging him to going back to what made him successful in Japan and for awhile in the US. I mean, how long do you let it go on before you bring in another interpreter, do more one-on-one work, or whatever it takes? This is a line-up anchoring bat, and the off-season's big acquisition.

Ultimately, I think it's on the coaching staff as a whole to leave no stone unturned in "fixing" a player. . .maybe not in the first or second week. But by the sixth or seventh? I'm not faulting them for not doing any particular thing - because it's their job to figure out the particular thing that works. If you've got to put feathers in your hair and chant it dramatically, or if you've got to step aside for another messenger, that's what you've got to do. Maybe they did all that. Maybe this is all on Yoshida or some third factor we have not identified. But it's not a success.

 

[InsideTheParker]

But he did stink. The fangraphs article is just helping us understand why.

I was referring to the TMJ. Having a persistent pain in any part of your body makes it hard just to get through the day, much less play at a very demanding sport. Sorry I didn't make clear what I was referring to.

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

I started a separate thread for the hitting coaches as I'm wondering (as I have for a bit) whether this is endemic.

I do take your point about not knowing how they did or didn't implement any potential fix. And I'd concede that there are individual cases of a player just not being able to change their approach, or there being a true miscommunication, or there just being a kind of talent ceiling that gets hit which the player can't go beyond.

At the same time though, I just think it's weird that they couldn't (possibly) "get through to" Yoshida. Mostly because it would involve encouraging him to going back to what made him successful in Japan and for awhile in the US. I mean, how long do you let it go on before you bring in another interpreter, do more one-on-one work, or whatever it takes? This is a line-up anchoring bat, and the off-season's big acquisition.

Ultimately, I think it's on the coaching staff as a whole to leave no stone unturned in "fixing" a player. . .maybe not in the first or second week. But by the sixth or seventh? I'm not faulting them for not doing any particular thing - because it's their job to figure out the particular thing that works. If you've got to put feathers in your hair and chant it dramatically, or if you've got to step aside for another messenger, that's what you've got to do. Maybe they did all that. Maybe this is all on Yoshida or some third factor we have not identified. But it's not a success.

Definitely one of the things that I'll be watching most carefully in 2024 and it could very well give us some answers to some of these questions. It's really hard to know. Like everything, I'm sure it was a host of challenges and combination of factors. None of us can probably imagine how difficult it is to be a player in that position with the relentless baseball season in a foreign country. My guess is probably everyone could have done better, but hopefully this year he plays more like first half Yoshida.

I was referring to the TMJ. Having a persistent pain in any part of your body makes it hard just to get through the day, much less play at a very demanding sport. Sorry I didn't make clear what I was referring to.

Ahhh, gotcha. Yeah, I'm sure that will help. It can't have been pleasant to have been playing with that. Didn't Napoli have something similar?

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Ahhh, gotcha. Yeah, I'm sure that will help. It can't have been pleasant to have been playing with that. Didn't Napoli have something similar?

Napoli did have jaw surgery, but I think it was to relieve severe sleep apnea rather than TMJ.

 

[Frisbetarian]

I thought I'd bump this and ping @Frisbetarian, given that we had speculated about reasons for possible slumps and ongoing effectiveness earlier this off-season.

The article is a good deep-dive into his changed approach in the second half. I'm still sort of amazed that this kind of real-time data didn't make it to the hitting coaches, then to Yoshida, in the sense that it went on for months. Or that it got mangled or garbled along the way. Or that it was supplanted by the player's desire to do something different than what had led to a successful career in Japan (unlikely). Or that the Sox hitting coaches were (with the best of intentions) trying to tweak Yoshida's approach to mine it for potential (more likely.)

Assuming some of those scenarios above might be correct, it does make me wonder how large a sample size is required in the current org. to spot a problem and fix it. Even there caveats abound - I know some hitters can turn things around overnight with tweaks (e.g., Millar), and some can't or don't.

Regardless, I'm happy the article was written, as I think some sunlight on the issue might be good for the player - the takeaway is that he needs to go back to doing the thing he does well. Then maybe someone tinkers.

Interesting article. Thanks for sharing.

I’m not in a position to go into any kind of analytical depth (I’m in a small Mexican town with sketchy internet), but one thing did stand out to me in the article. Even when Yoshida was doing well last year, pre 7/1 when his swing and chase rates were similar to those he had in Japan, his walk and strikeout percentages were much worse. In his last 3 seasons in Japan, Yoshida had a walk percentage of 14.3% and his strikeout percentage was 6.6%. Before 7/1 last season, Yoshida’s bb and k rates respectively were 8.7% and 11.3%, a significant drop off. His hitting approach was not working the same way it had in Japan even before the slump.

Did he change and start chasing more pitches because of that? Did the coaches tinker with approach? Did the league figure something out about him? I have no clue, but I also have little confidence he’ll be a better hitter this year, and virtually none that his defense will improve.

One last thing. While it’s possible Yoshida did tire last season (did he say he did somewhere that I missed?), I’d be a bit surprised. He’s in incredible shape and is a workout machine.

 

[Rovin Romine]

Interesting article. Thanks for sharing.

I’m not in a position to go into any kind of analytical depth (I’m in a small Mexican town with sketchy internet), but one thing did stand out to me in the article. Even when Yoshida was doing well last year, pre 7/1 when his swing and chase rates were similar to those he had in Japan, his walk and strikeout percentages were much worse. In his last 3 seasons in Japan, Yoshida had a walk percentage of 14.3% and his strikeout percentage was 6.6%. Before 7/1 last season, Yoshida’s bb and k rates respectively were 8.7% and 11.3%, a significant drop off. His hitting approach was not working the same way it had in Japan even before the slump.

Did he change and start chasing more pitches because of that? Did the coaches tinker with approach? Did the league figure something out about him? I have no clue, but I also have little confidence he’ll be a better hitter this year, and virtually none that his defense will improve.

One last thing. While it’s possible Yoshida did tire last season (did he say he did somewhere that I missed?), I’d be a bit surprised. He’s in incredible shape and is a workout machine.

The fatigue thing was widely reported. E.g., July 15 - Sean McAdam. https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2023/06/talking-to-former-team-helped-red-sox-know-when-masataka-yoshida-needs-rest.html

But some of it, too, was motivated by some information provided to the Red Sox Yoshida’s former team, the Orix Buffaloes. In a conference call between the coaching staffs of the Buffaloes and Red Sox, held this past winter, the Sox learned some vital warning signs.

Specifically, when Yoshida is feeling fatigue, the Sox were told, he’ll fall into some poor mechanics at the plate and often roll over on pitches and often ground out to the right side of the infield. Indeed, after a series in Cleveland last week that saw him collect five hits in three games, Yoshida was hitless in New York last weekend, culminating with two groundouts to the right side of the infield in his last two plate appearances.

For Yoshida, coming to the U.S. and playing MLB has been a whirlwind of change. The schedule is different, as is the actual baseball and the travel is more frequent and for longer distances. Even the playing surfaces - mostly grass instead of the prevalence of artificial turf in Japan - are new.

“I’m still working on adjusting,” admitted Yoshida. “I need to find the best way for me (to deal with the differences) throughout the whole season.”

 

[chrisfont9]

How many great pitchers are there in Japan? Obviously the best ones are among the best in the world, but Yoshida was teammates with Yamamoto, so he never had to face him, and the other top guys (Senga? Imanaga?) he probably saw on occasion, but had plenty of other at-bats against guys who were below MLB quality for him to abuse and stay on top of his confidence and approach.

In MLB, there aren't a lot of nights where you can just abuse an inferior pitcher. I'm not saying he can only hit inferior pitching -- for all the recency bias against him Yoshida put up a 109 OPS+ in his first go-round, with so many of the factors you guys have already hit on working against him. He can do this. But more than the plane rides, I think the mental grind must have been exhausting for him, and I'd guess that the paucity of bad pitchers made it hard for him to correct his approach once he started pressing. These are the sorts of things you can expect him to improve on with more of a comfort level, especially if he DHs a lot. But there's also a book on him, so it won't be without more failure risk.

 

[TomRicardo]

Interesting article. Thanks for sharing.

I’m not in a position to go into any kind of analytical depth (I’m in a small Mexican town with sketchy internet), but one thing did stand out to me in the article. Even when Yoshida was doing well last year, pre 7/1 when his swing and chase rates were similar to those he had in Japan, his walk and strikeout percentages were much worse. In his last 3 seasons in Japan, Yoshida had a walk percentage of 14.3% and his strikeout percentage was 6.6%. Before 7/1 last season, Yoshida’s bb and k rates respectively were 8.7% and 11.3%, a significant drop off. His hitting approach was not working the same way it had in Japan even before the slump.

Did he change and start chasing more pitches because of that? Did the coaches tinker with approach? Did the league figure something out about him? I have no clue, but I also have little confidence he’ll be a better hitter this year, and virtually none that his defense will improve.

One last thing. While it’s possible Yoshida did tire last season (did he say he did somewhere that I missed?), I’d be a bit surprised. He’s in incredible shape and is a workout machine.

Haha I remember this conversation when I called you jealous of the Mexican sunset. I think he got exposed with horizontal movement. He had a tough time with sliders and cutters. While his K% is highest on sliders, his ability to make meaningful contact with cutters is awful. He was -7 runs against cutters and -2 runs against sliders (with 30% whiff rate as opposed to his overall whiff rate of 18.3%). He tends to chase pitches with strong horizontal movement and has a hard time making strong contact.

 

[nvalvo]

How many great pitchers are there in Japan? Obviously the best ones are among the best in the world, but Yoshida was teammates with Yamamoto, so he never had to face him, and the other top guys (Senga? Imanaga?) he probably saw on occasion, but had plenty of other at-bats against guys who were below MLB quality for him to abuse and stay on top of his confidence and approach.

In MLB, there aren't a lot of nights where you can just abuse an inferior pitcher. I'm not saying he can only hit inferior pitching -- for all the recency bias against him Yoshida put up a 109 OPS+ in his first go-round, with so many of the factors you guys have already hit on working against him. He can do this. But more than the plane rides, I think the mental grind must have been exhausting for him, and I'd guess that the paucity of bad pitchers made it hard for him to correct his approach once he started pressing. These are the sorts of things you can expect him to improve on with more of a comfort level, especially if he DHs a lot. But there's also a book on him, so it won't be without more failure risk.

I think there are kind of a lot of good pitchers in NPB, relative to their only being 12 teams in the league.

 

[Frisbetarian]

The fatigue thing was widely reported. E.g., July 15 - Sean McAdam. https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2023/06/talking-to-former-team-helped-red-sox-know-when-masataka-yoshida-needs-rest.html

Thanks

 

[Frisbetarian]

Haha I remember this conversation when I called you jealous of the Mexican sunset. I think he got exposed with horizontal movement. He had a tough time with sliders and cutters. While his K% is highest on sliders, his ability to make meaningful contact with cutters is awful. He was -7 runs against cutters and -2 runs against sliders (with 30% whiff rate as opposed to his overall whiff rate of 18.3%). He tends to chase pitches with strong horizontal movement and has a hard time making strong contact.

Great find. I have to imagine other teams saw that as well.

 

[Max Power]

Interesting article. Thanks for sharing.

I’m not in a position to go into any kind of analytical depth (I’m in a small Mexican town with sketchy internet), but one thing did stand out to me in the article. Even when Yoshida was doing well last year, pre 7/1 when his swing and chase rates were similar to those he had in Japan, his walk and strikeout percentages were much worse. In his last 3 seasons in Japan, Yoshida had a walk percentage of 14.3% and his strikeout percentage was 6.6%. Before 7/1 last season, Yoshida’s bb and k rates respectively were 8.7% and 11.3%, a significant drop off. His hitting approach was not working the same way it had in Japan even before the slump.

I don't think it's realistic to expect the same K% in MLB as he had in Japan. There was one qualified hitter in all of MLB with a K rate below 10%, Luis Arraez. Even with the terrible last 2 months, Yoshida was #10 in the league. He could improve some, but there's no chance he's going to put up a 6.6% over here unless something significant changes in pitching league-wide.

 

[JOBU]

Just another reminder to us fans that there is often (almost always?) a reason a good player fails to live up to expectations.
"He sucks" doesn't cover it.

Sometimes it does. See Dalbec, Bob.

 

[beautokyo]

I think there are kind of a lot of good pitchers in NPB, relative to their only being 12 teams in the league.

Nope. Think again.

 

[The Gray Eagle]

Yo, Yoshida speaks:
https://theathletic.com/5308561/2024/03/01/masataka-yoshida-red-sox-second-season/
Some of what he had to deal with in making the switch to the U.S:

Yoshida has discussed the challenges of transitioning to MLB — the travel and adjusting to different time zones, the grass vs. turf outfields, the presence of fewer domed stadiums than in Japan — on top of learning the league’s pitchers.
“The time difference, that was something that I didn’t get to experience in Japan,” Yoshida said recently through interpreter Yutaro Yamaguchi. “That was something new to me. And in Japan, we take public transportation. Here we do charter planes and private planes. So that was something different. Sometimes after the game, we took a plane and we got to Boston early in the morning, so that was something new as well.”

What is he doing to improve?

To get there, a big part of Yoshida’s offseason focused on adding strength for endurance to better prepare for a longer, more travel intensive major-league schedule. Yoshida also dealt with shoulder stiffness toward the end of last season so a dedicated buildup for shoulder strength was part of the program. The Red Sox sent three Japanese members of their training staff to Japan at various points throughout the winter to work with Yoshida.
“It was mostly about conditioning and we constantly communicated with each other,” Yoshida said.

His TMJ was an issue but he didn't talk about it, didn't want to use it as an excuse:

Meanwhile, a report earlier this week from Yahoo! Japan noted that Yoshida had surgery in the offseason on his jaw for temporomandibular joint disorder (TMJ). Yoshida later confirmed the surgery to reporters in Fort Myers.
Yoshida told Yahoo! Japan that his jaw regularly gave him headaches and said it was hard to focus at times since opening his mouth caused pain, yet he didn’t want to use that as an excuse not to play. Regardless, it seems likely to have had some impact.

He's still working on his defense, even though he will play more at DH this year:

Yoshida has spent the early parts of camp working diligently with outfield coach Kyle Hudson inside JetBlue Park on reads off the wall, his footwork and overall decision-making. He also spent time continuing to build up shoulder strength and, over the first week of games, served as designated hitter to make sure his arm was in a good place. Cora expects Yoshida to play his first game in the outfield this weekend.
“As a team with the Red Sox, we couldn’t accomplish what we’d hoped,” Yoshida said of his first season in Boston. “So that’s something that I’m kind of trying to go for, trying to aim for, and if I can, I’m going to contribute to as many of the victories of the team as I can.”

Looking forward to seeing him play this spring. He's got a big year coming up, hopefully he'll have a strong and consistent season.