Is there a big enough sample size to get a sense of his road defensive #s?
Masa started exactly the same number of games in left field at home as on the road: 42 and 42. He also had three additional games in which he pinch hit and went in defensively in LF, all of which were on the road.
Because it would also be nice to be able to rotate Devers through the DH spot once every few days. Neither Yoshida nor Devers is a good defensive player, but sometimes it's better to hide your bad defender in the outfield corners than at the hot corner.
Thanks.
I've thought the same thing, and if Rafaela can turn into Tony Phillips, that would be a DELIGHT.
The bolded is misleading. Yoshida was 30th out of just 57 qualified AL batters, so slightly below average for qualified hitters. Fwiw, he was 49th of those 57 in fWAR.
There's a pretty good post two above yours that explains why some think Japanese players are likely to improve in year two. While I think we all agree he's past his physical defensive prime, it does not necessarily follow that any individual's athletic ability will be any worse at 31 than at 30, and it's reasonable to think that playing in arguably the sport's most unique defensive location (Fenway LF) is the kind of thing a person might be better at in their second season.
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Yeah, Yoshida could well improve this coming year. Given the usual pattern of Japanese players acclimating, it seems he probably will. The issue - more that his second half struggles - is that he's emblematic of redundancies in the roster Bloom put together: lefty heavy and should-be-a-DH heavy. I'd like them to get a RHH power hitter. Maybe Teoscar is that guy, maybe he isn't. But someone to create some balance in the lineup who can consistently dent the wall. So, if you get a RHH outfielder, the party gets real crowded in the outfield.My thinking on all of this is that Yoshida can improve substantially and still not be worth his contract. Yes, his defense might improve some, but it's unlikely to improve enough to make him an average or above-average defender. As a result, my expectation going forward is that he will be a drag out in left field.
With the adjustment discussed above, I expect him to be more disciplined next year, and to have a better season at the plate -- an wrc+/OPS+ of 115 to 120 or so. That's incidentally what Fangraphs is expecting
Still and all, that will make him Justin Turner: a guy who can hit enough to justify a place on his roster, but who you'd prefer to park at DH, with limited time in the field at home. That guy is worth a couple wins, maybe more if he has a BABIP surge or something. Which makes him expensive at 18 million. Add to that he's 30 years old and runs like he's 40, and the contract runs the risk of being underwater as the years go on. Adding Teoscar on top of him seems silly: now you've 35 million tied up with two guys who hit pretty well, but are on the wrong side of thirty and are below-average to bad fielders? All when you've got O'Neill, Duran, Abreu and Rafaela ready to go, all of whom are at least okay at fielding (and O'Neill and Rafaela or excellent) and some of whom carry 120 ops+ or better upside?
It just doesn't add up to me. Especially with Devers looking like a guy who could be a candidate to DH more. You want that Yoshida contract back the same way you want the Jansen one back: not because the players aren't pretty good, but because that 30 million dollars could be locking down a player whose floor is 4-5 wins, or locking down younger players at a premium. Whether that be a free agent or a premium talent you target and go gangbusters for, I don't know.
Yes, and other teams recognize this possibility too, which is why there is some trade interest across MLB. One has to acknowledge the (1 in 5?) chance, however, that 2024 Yoshida looks more like 2023's 2nd-half than the 1st-half version. If that's what ensues this season, his value collapses. Add in the ability the Sox have to plug the very cheap Valdez in at DH for a slug of games along with the opportunity for days off their feet for regulars such as Devers, and redeploying resources with Yoshida dealt away looks attractive.
Speed doesn't slump, but it absolutely declines with age and Duran is 27 now. Stretching those singles into doubles was awesome to watch this year, I just don't know how long he can keep that up. One more season? Two?
If' "people" are assuming he's going to improve, you'll have to take it up with them, not me. I think I was pretty clear in using "If" several times.
Was just catching up on this thread. Curious as to why you didn't include either Duran or Rafaela in your projections for OF playing time. I guess you're assuming that if they sign Teoscar they will trade Duran (not a crazy assumption, but not stated) but I would think that Rafaela would still be in the mix (unless you think he's going to spend the entire year in Worcester).
Yeah that's my line of thinking on this (I mention both Duran and Rafaela in the final line).
I'm confused -- are you saying he has the ability to be a 140 wrc+ hitter for a month or two, or a full season?
He fits my criteria of someone to like and feel good rooting for. His bat will play next year, enough to make him more than a serviceable OF.
Hi All. Lurker for years, figured I'd just jump in.
I generally agree here, but I think it is highly likely that this turns out to be a less-than-great deal on a pretty mediocre player. I probably would have expected more given his numbers from Japan, but I wonder what the Sox conversion model is from the JPPL to MLB. I can't imagine they didn't think he'd be better than this.
I think we get 2 halves of the first half Masa, so to speak, which is a really good bat. If Bloom expected more, it would be a surprise. He wasn’t good on defense or on the basepaths in Japan either.
I meant his batting numbers being what I imagine would be below expectation from the FO.
So, taking from the small sample above, I'll also add in their ages in their rookie year and add in Yoshida
An .800 OPS with even slightly improved defense (when he's in LF) and as a DH (hopefully at least when he's not in Fenway) would be better than alright IMO.
How much value does a player like that have for the Boston Red Sox? What I mean by that is: Will he be a part of the next title-winning team in Boston? I get the sense from this offseason that we aren't looking to make a big play for a title. I guess one could argue we're shifting to making a play consistently, for a wild card. Given his age, wouldn't he have more value on a real title contender- is it worth looking to eventually deal him if he hit those numbers?
Correct. Yes, I didn't mean to look at dealing right now. I was thinking about what the value of him might be, as a trade chip, if he has a reasonably good outcome (I'll call it the Fishercat outcome). Obviously, if he were 26 I think a year like that would make him a core part of our team. At 30.....maybe not so much.
Cool plot, but obviously a lot of averaging goes into these points. Most MLB players aren't playing their first full season at 27. And considering the wear and tear of a 162 game season (plus playoffs for many) I think part of the decline you're seeing here isn't age-related per se but related to playing a full season of MLB baseball. So I wouldn't expect him to have only 1-2 seasons of elite sprint speeds left.
He was one of the more fascinating players I’ve watched in a long time.
I thought that someone behind the team said that they would be doing away with a designated designated hitter and rotating the position among several players. For two players that would be, roughly speaking, 81 games each; for 3, 54 games; and so on. I suppose they could use Yoshida just over half the time but that would greatly diminish the number of times they could use several other players.
Curious where you get this information. Looks like it because you have a link that tells us this?
