You lika the juice?

[grimshaw]

MLB crossed the quarter mark of the season late last week. We're not quite at the point when numbers have completely stabilized, but one thing is pretty clear - the long ball is back in force.

There are 52 batters on pace to hit 30+ home runs - 12 over 40
There are 45 guys slugging over .500. We have a month until summer starts and then we we'll get to see baseballs really move.

For comparison sake, (using 2010 since the steroid era unofficially ended around 2008-2009ish:
2010 - 27 slugged over .500 and 18 hit 30+
2011 - 26 slugged over .500 and 23 hit 30+
2012 - 29 slugged over .500 and 26 hit 30+
2013 16 slugged over .500 and 14 hit 30+
2014 - the nadir, 13 slugged over .500 and only 11! guys hit 30+
2015 - 19 slugged .500, 19 hit 30+.

And - the height of the steroid era - the summer of McGwire and Sosa
1998 - 51 slugged over .500 and 32 hit 30+

Two years ago, 20 guys struggled to crack an ISO of .200. This year there are 72 over that.

 

[simplicio]

A shift in tactics away from OBP and toward power as pitching has gotten more dominant and shift usage has ballooned. Also, a lot of those dominant pitchers from the last few years (Price, Kluber, Keuchel, Archer, Gray etc) are having really rough seasons so far.

 

[simplicio]

Edit: ack

 

[rembrat]

Hitters slash stats for the pitchers simplicio named:

David Price - .260/.315/.405
Corey Kluber - .232/.286/.368
Dallas Keuchel - .288/.359/.446
Chris Archer - .258/.342/.438
Sonny Gray - .285/.362/.513

I don't think we can hang all this offense on a few rough starts.

 

[jon abbey]

So I was on MLB.com this morning, and one of the headlines was "Gutierrez' 473 foot home run, 2nd longest in '16." I was trying to remember off the top of my head if there was an uber prospect I hadn't thought about who was recently called up. Nope. It was Franklin Gutierrez. He of the .147 ISO and 84 career homers since 2005.
Something ain't right.

ISO and career homers aren't the stats to be checking, the stat to check is how far they go when he does hit them. Guess who hit the longest HR in Fenway last season? That's right, it was Franklin G:

http://m.mlb.com/video/v376197083/seabos-gutierrez-crushes-a-backtoback-blast/?c_id=mlb

http://www.hittrackeronline.com/detail.php?id=2016_1361&type=hitter

 

[E5 Yaz]

Some player who's not a household name does something unusual ... he must be on PEDs

Jesus Fuck ... that's just lazy, asinine posting

 

[grimshaw]

ISO and career homers aren't the stats to be checking, the stat to check is how far they go when he does hit them. Guess who hit the longest HR in Fenway last season? That's right, it was Franklin G:

http://m.mlb.com/video/v376197083/seabos-gutierrez-crushes-a-backtoback-blast/?c_id=mlb

http://www.hittrackeronline.com/detail.php?id=2016_1361&type=hitter

Thanks - I thought of that after the fact and hoped it wouldn't distract too much from the overall point. . .
Removed the first paragraph, to focus on the increased offense.. .

Some player who's not a household name does something unusual ... he must be on PEDs

Jesus Fuck ... that's just lazy, asinine posting

 

[simplicio]

Hitters slash stats for the pitchers simplicio named:

David Price - .260/.315/.405
Corey Kluber - .232/.286/.368
Dallas Keuchel - .288/.359/.446
Chris Archer - .258/.342/.438
Sonny Gray - .285/.362/.513

I don't think we can hang all this offense on a few rough starts.

I didn't mean it as a primary reason, it's just a visible contributing factor. And I was wrong about Kluber, he's right in line with last year. But the other guys' OPS against have all gone up about 100-275 points over 2015.

 

[ifmanis5]

I'm enjoying the thread title.

Remember back in the good old days when everybody just thought it was the 'rabbit' balls? It was a simpler time. And also cocaine.

 

[SumnerH]

I'm enjoying the thread title.

Remember back in the good old days when everybody just thought it was the 'rabbit' balls? It was a simpler time. And also cocaine.

Rabbit ball in 1987 was legit.

Or rather, something was going on in 1987 apart from the general arc toward the late 1990s.

http://mlb.nbcsports.com/2013/01/16/rabbit-ball-the-wacky-1987-baseball-season/

 

[ifmanis5]

Rabbit ball in 1987 was legit.

Or rather, something was going on in 1987 apart from the general arc toward the late 1990s.

http://mlb.nbcsports.com/2013/01/16/rabbit-ball-the-wacky-1987-baseball-season/

It was a weird year but my snarky point was that people at the time were either unaware of or generally ignoring, shall we say, other methods to increase performance.

To answer the thread, even though the weather has been generally cold and damp, MLB ERA so far this season is 4.02 with Opp BA at .250 and 92 HR allowed. Last year was 3.96 and .254 and 328 HR. 2014 was 3.74 and .251 and 279 HR. 2013 was 3.86 and .253 and 311 HR.

 

[smastroyin]

MLB SLG and R/G, past ten years

2016: .407, 4.29
2015: .405, 4.25
2014: .386, 4.07
2013: .396, 4.17
2012: .405, 4.32
2011: .399, 4.28
2010: .403, 4.38
2009: .418, 4.61
2008: .416, 4.65
2007: .423, 4.80

2013 and 14 certainly seem like more the outliers than this year, which isn't much different than last.

Stupid bullshit roids roids roids posts with no actual relevant analysis to support it should be reserved for the actual forum we created for this talk.

 

[Chainsaw318]

I'm wondering if this is a re-balance somewhat. Pitchers were out ahead for a couple seasons, and now a combo of a few pitchers agin out of their primes, the effects of TJ surgery and that there seems to have been a recent bounty of position players coming up may be re-centering scoring somewhat.

 

[nvalvo]

I'm wondering if this is a re-balance somewhat. Pitchers were out ahead for a couple seasons, and now a combo of a few pitchers agin out of their primes, the effects of TJ surgery and that there seems to have been a recent bounty of position players coming up may be re-centering scoring somewhat.

Also, haven't they moved in fences in the last few years in SEA, SDG, and MIA? That's a solid 10% of ballparks.

 

[grimshaw]

Bumping since we're exactly 60% of the way through the season. Despite the NY Post-style thread title, I'm really just interested in trying to figure out what is causing the historic two year bump in home runs.. 2014-2015 there was a 723 home run swing. And this year (if pace holds up, another 700+ swing). That's like adding 4-5 teams to the league, and then 4-5 more the next year.

Prior to 2014, there has never been even a 500 home run swing in history (aside from the 1987 outlier) from one year to the next And never a 1000 positive swing over two years. I'm sure notable events like having a lighter baseball in the early 1900's and raising the mound in 1969 also led to some major swings in offense, but there hasn't been a major change made to the game this year.

HR's per year since 2007 as well as players on pace for 25 and then 30 or more in parentheses.

2016: 5606 (71) (44) - 71 would shatter the record, though I'm sure that will fall off some.
2015: 4909 (40) (19)
2014: 4186 (27) (11)
2013: 4661 (30) (14)
2012: 4934 (44) (26)
2011: 4552 (42) (23)
2010: 4613 (43) (18)
2009: 5042 (55) (30)
2008: 4878 (49) (28)
2007: 4957 (46) (25)

2016 is on pace 5606, and traditionally August is the biggest home run month due to it having the warmest weather and no All-Star break. There is also a week left in the 2nd highest home run month, so there is certainly a shot at breaking the all time 5693 high of 2000.

And then the steroid era. Note that 1998 was an expansion year, so that was also the last 5000 hr year.

2006: 5386 (50) (34)
2005: 5017 (44) (26)
2004: 5451 (54) (37)
2003: 5207 (52) (28)
2002: 5059 (54) (28)
2001: 5458 (60) (40)
2000: 5693 (60) (45)
1999: 5528 (59) (42)
1998: 5064 (50) (32)

The other year of the home run, 1987, was a crude estimate of 5100 (took 26 teams, and multiplied the median of 170 per team x 4 and added it to the total.

At the very least - this could be a record setting home run year, despite the fact that no one is on pace for 55 and it is really surprising that no one is talking about it.

 

[Darnell's Son]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-juiced-balls-the-new-steroids/

 

[simplicio]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-juiced-balls-the-new-steroids/

That's huge. Also goes a long way in explaining the persistence of Baltimore atop the AL East this year when going into the season everyone thought they'd be mucking about in the basement. It'll be interesting to see how quickly the league adapts to the change. Great topic for saberseminar.