Your 2015 Boston Red Sox

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lxt

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geoduck no quahog said:
 
That pretty much brings them up to the Tax Max, allowing ~ $3M for a B/U catcher.
 
That's assuming the numbers from the other thread ($140M) + $2M Uehara + $24M Lester + $12M Liriano + $10M Headley = $188M w/o Badenhop - who deserves to be re-signed.
 
I don't like it because it spends too much money at 3B, still has a surplus of outfielders ($22M tied up in Cespedes and Victorino) and not enough money for pitching.
The Sox currently have roughly $50million before hitting AAV limit.
 
Uehara adds $4.5 (Signed for $9million up from $4.75). Headley will likely cost $14million/yr. Lester will come in around $22million/yr. - assuming 7 year deal @ $154million. Liriano sounds about right. Badenhop will cost at least $2.5million/yr. - slight pay raise from last years $2.15. With Cespedes ($11million), Castillo ($10million) & Victorino ($13) that easily pops the Sox over the AAV.
 

Bigpupp

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lxt said:
The Sox currently have roughly $50million before hitting AAV limit.
 
Uehara adds $4.5 (Signed for $9million up from $4.75). Headley will likely cost $14million/yr. Lester will come in around $22million/yr. - assuming 7 year deal @ $154million. Liriano sounds about right. Badenhop will cost at least $2.5million/yr. - slight pay raise from last years $2.15. With Cespedes ($11million), Castillo ($10million) & Victorino ($13) that easily pops the Sox over the AAV.
Maybe I'm missing something here, but why are you adding in Cespedes, Castillo and Victorino when they have nothing to do with the 50 million unspent?
 

lxt

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Bigpupp said:
Maybe I'm missing something here, but why are you adding in Cespedes, Castillo and Victorino when they have nothing to do with the 50 million unspent?
It was in reference to what geoduck mentioned. I think he was saying that with the money tied up among these guys with there being an abundance of OF'ers was money better spent on pitching. I was simply indicating a degree of accuracy on the cost as it was more than he thought.
 

lxt

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Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat said:
What logic could there be for taking your best prospect--one of the best prospects anywhere--and sitting him on the bench in the bigs instead of letting him have a full season at AAA?  It makes no sense at all.
I'm assuming you are speaking of JBJ or Swihart. I want JBJ up in the ML because I'm thinking he will get playing time. He can play all OF positions, rest those who need it, come in when someone is having a bad day, take over for those small injuries and be used in the 9th to shutdown an opponent - sort of like a prevent defense. Swihart, I think he's ready to come up and take on 30 - 35 games over the course of the year and possibly step in when the Sox need  a little more punch in the offense.
 
Your point is valid in that each of these players can benefit from more time, fine tuning aspects of their game on an every day basis in the minors. However, I think their both at a level that experience in the majors, surrounded by experience players, many of whom were just brought up from the minors themselves, is worth the time on the bench. Both players can add to the team now. They'll learn, provide support to the team and are cost effective.
 

LostinNJ

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Whatever scenarios we imagine here need to include trades and changes in roles. Right now the team has too many major league outfielders and too many starting pitchers in the high minors. There is no way to fit Betts, Castillo, Cespedes, Nava, Craig, Victorino all on the major league roster. There is no way to keep Owens, Rodriguez, Johnson, Webster, Ranaudo, Wright, Barnes, Workman, and De La Rosa all as starters.
 
One of the outfielders will be traded. Cespedes seems like the likeliest candidate, for reasons that we all know. Betts will not be a supersub. He'll be the leadoff hitter and work on mastering one position.
 
At least a couple of the pitchers I listed will have to be traded or shifted to the bullpen. The likeliest trade candidates are the lefties, unless someone out there really wants Webster or Barnes. I expect to see Workman in the pen, and I predict that's where De La Rosa ends up as well.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat said:
What logic could there be for taking your best prospect--one of the best prospects anywhere--and sitting him on the bench in the bigs instead of letting him have a full season at AAA?  It makes no sense at all.
 
Does it make any less sense than Cespedes, de la Rosa and Mujica being enough to pry Cueto loose?
 
:globalsox:
 

benhogan

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Snodgrass'Muff said:
 
Does it make any less sense than Cespedes, de la Rosa and Mujica being enough to pry Cueto loose?
 
:globalsox:
would we really need to include Mujica?
 
I guess the Reds wouldn't mind increasing their payroll with all those upgrades
 

lxt

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benhogan said:
would we really need to include Mujica?
 
I guess the Reds wouldn't mind increasing their payroll with all those upgrades
Got a point there. Mujica's 4.5million would be a problem ... I guess I wouldn't be upset if the Sox ate the salary.
 
Snodgrass'Muff said:
 
Does it make any less sense than Cespedes, de la Rosa and Mujica being enough to pry Cueto loose?
 
:globalsox:
What would you suggest ... Cespedes gives them the LF power bat they're looking for, a promising starter with some years of control, a reliever who can close from time to time?
 

soxhop411

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Updated: Top Cuban prospect Moncada petitioning for free agency and has showcase planned. http://t.co/aiyNjZ9BRR #Cuba

Since we are already over the limit would the Sox go after him?


Edit: if he is unblocked before the end of this signing season
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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lxt said:
Got a point there. Mujica's 4.5million would be a problem ... I guess I wouldn't be upset if the Sox ate the salary.
 
What would you suggest ... Cespedes gives them the LF power bat they're looking for, a promising starter with some years of control, a reliever who can close from time to time?
 
I would suggest you spend some time looking into what players are worth and what teams need before making another suggestion because every trade proposal you've made on this forum has been preposterous. Cueto is one of the best pitchers in the entire sport. There's almost no chance they are looking to trade him, and if they do move him, it'll be because they were blown away by an offer. If they move anyone it'll be Latos, and the package you suggested probably isn't enough to get him, either.
 

soxhop411

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Scouts believe Yoan Moncada could be the best teenage prospect to come from Cuba in years.

Now, Moncada is one step closer to making his Major League dream a reality.
Moncada, 19, a switch-hitting infielder from the city of Cienfuegos, has established residency in Guatemala and is petitioning for free agency with Major League Baseball, according to an industry source. He must still be unblocked by the U.S. Department of Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control before he can come into a final agreement with a club.

Moncada has a showcase tentatively scheduled for Nov. 12 in Guatemala.


Because he is under 23 and has not played in a Cuban professional league for at least five seasons, Moncada will be subjected to the international signing guidelines, but it's unclear if he would be eligible to sign during the 2014-15 international signing period, which started July 2 and ends June 15, 2015, or during the 2015-16 signing period, which starts on July 2, 2015.

Scouts have called Moncada the next Jorge Soler, and his skills have been compared with those of Yasiel Puig at the same age. He once beat new Red Sox outfielder Rusney Castillo in a baserunning competition during the Serie Nacional all-star festivities in Cuba, and his power has been compared with that of Cuban slugger Yasmany Tomas.

Moncada, who plays shortstop and third base, starred for Cuba's top team of 15- and 16-year-olds and made a name for himself at the U-16 IBAF World Baseball Championships in Mexico.

He made his debut for Cienfuegos at age 17 and hit .277 during parts of two seasons. He played alongside White Sox slugger Jose Abreu and Dodgers infielder Erisbel Arruebarrena. Moncada was also teammates with Abreu, Arruebarrena and other notable players like Yulieski Gourriel, Alfredo Despaigne and Jose Miguel Fernandez on Cuba's national team during the 2013 World Port Tournament in the Netherlands. Raisel Iglesias, who signed a seven-year, $27 million deal with the Reds, was also one of Moncada's teammates.

Additionally, Moncada was on Cuba's preliminary roster for the 2017 World Baseball Classic.

Though many Cuban players are known to leave the island in late-night escapes or defect from the national team during an international tournament, the 6-foot-2, 205-pound Moncada was granted his release from the Cienfuegos team this year and cleared by Cuba's National Baseball Commission. He was granted a visa and a passport by the Cuban government and left on an airplane to Central America, where he has been training for the past several months.

The Moncada sweepstakes should be interesting. The Yankees, Red Sox and Rays, who have a reputation for signing top talent on the international market, have spent more than 15 percent of their allotted bonus pools and are in the maximum penalty range for the 2014-15 signing period. The penalty includes a 100 percent tax on their pool overage and prohibits them from signing any pool-eligible player for more than $300,000 during the next two signing periods. In short, those three clubs will not be able to sign Moncada if he becomes eligible to sign after June 15.

The Cubs and Rangers, who are big players in Latin America but cannot sign an international player for more than $250,000 during the current signing period because they exceeded their 2013-14 bonus pools by more than 15 percent, could become players in the Moncada sweepstakes if he becomes eligible after June 15.
 

ehaz

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People following Cuban ball have been on Moncada for a looooong time. He left Cuba months ago, just been waiting for him to pop up somewhere. If Rusney gets $70 mill, Moncada could get $140.
 

lxt

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Snodgrass'Muff said:
 
I would suggest you spend some time looking into what players are worth and what teams need before making another suggestion because every trade proposal you've made on this forum has been preposterous. Cueto is one of the best pitchers in the entire sport. There's almost no chance they are looking to trade him, and if they do move him, it'll be because they were blown away by an offer. If they move anyone it'll be Latos, and the package you suggested probably isn't enough to get him, either.
I suggested Lester for Cespedes and Hammel and was eaten alive ... I turned out to be wrong, they didn't get Hammel ... guess your right there all preposterous.
 
I don't rate him as high as you do, although I'll agree he is one of the top 5 or 10. The Reds have little money and a great many expenses. There is no way they'll keep Cueto, everyone knows this as well as the Reds. They want to compete but like all small market clubs need to find a way to squeeze a penny further than others. If they can get a good package this year rather than watching Cueto walk they'll take a look. The trade I mentioned address all three issues they currently have at a cost that would not raise their salary requirements much (Will have to eat Mujica's contract). They'd love a lot but their not going to get it as all the smart teams will wait until Cueto goes into FA. If the Sox can get him and have serious extension talks then he's worth the shot now. If it will make you happy then I'll throw in Escobar and Brentz.
 

ArgentinaSOXfan

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ehaz said:
People following Cuban ball have been on Moncada for a looooong time. He left Cuba months ago, just been waiting for him to pop up somewhere. If Rusney gets $70 mill, Moncada could get $140.
 
He cant get that as it stands now. He is not 23+ years old and meeting other requirements to be an unrestricted FA capable of signing deals similar (or better) to that of Rusney, Abreu, etc.
 

ehaz

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ArgentinaSOXfan said:
 
He cant get that as it stands now. He is not 23+ years old and meeting other requirements to be an unrestricted FA capable of signing deals similar (or better) to that of Rusney, Abreu, etc.
Correct me if I'm wrong but if the Red Sox and Yankees already went above their pool and got punished, they could theoretically offer anything but they just play the 100% tax on the overage? So I guess closer to 40-60 with the tax in mind.
 

Drek717

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ehaz said:
Correct me if I'm wrong but if the Red Sox and Yankees already went above their pool and got punished, they could theoretically offer anything but they just play the 100% tax on the overage? So I guess closer to 40-60 with the tax in mind.
Soler got 9 years, $30M and that was before the new international signing system would have attached a 100% tax on it.  His market will get crushed by that now.
 

SaveBooFerriss

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ehaz said:
Correct me if I'm wrong but if the Red Sox and Yankees already went above their pool and got punished, they could theoretically offer anything but they just play the 100% tax on the overage? So I guess closer to 40-60 with the tax in mind.
 
That is only if he gets granted FA eligibility prior to June 15.  If he doesn't get FA eligibility until after June 15, the Sox and Yankees effectively cannot sign him.  
 

Mighty Joe Young

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OK - generic question here. After following all the "2015 Redsox " threads I have one basic question .. given the addition of Ace starter + a #2 is this offence good enough?
 
Vazquez
Napoli
Pedroia 
X
Headley/Panda/etc (non Donaldson class)
Cespedes/Nava/Craig
Castillo
Betts/Victorino
The Large Father
 
As the acquisition priorities seem to be two SPs and a 3b (+ Miller as a luxury item) would that team contend?

Oops .. Forgot Papi
 

MakMan44

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It should. I think it's automatically a competitor but you also have to remember we don't yet know what the rest of the east is going to do.
 

Snoop Soxy Dogg

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BCsMightyJoeYoung said:
 
OK - generic question here. After following all the "2015 Redsox " threads I have one basic question .. given the addition of Ace starter + a #2 is this offence good enough?
 
Vazquez
Napoli
Pedroia 
X
Headley/Panda/etc (non Donaldson class)
Cespedes/Nava/Craig
Castillo
Betts/Victorino
 
As the acquisition priorities seem to be two SPs and a 3b (+ Miller as a luxury item) would that team contend?
 
 
Well, they have a DH who's a pretty good hitter too, I think.
 

moondog80

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soxhop411 said:
“@MLBRosterMoves: The @Pirates extend $15.3M qualifying offers to both LHP Francisco Liriano and catcher Russell Martin.”

I thought Liriano could be a good pickup. Now I want to stay away with the QO attached
 
Sox have their first round pick protected.  Liriano getting the QO could work in the Sox' favor if he rejects it.
 

MakMan44

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My problem with Liriano is that he's going to want at a multiyear deal if he turns the QO, I'd assume at least 3 years. He just hasn't shown the kind of consistency that I'd want to see before giving him even that many years. 
 

Snoop Soxy Dogg

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moondog80 said:
 
Sox have their first round pick protected.  Liriano getting the QO could work in the Sox' favor if he rejects it.
 
Yeah, the QO may work in the Sox's favour this year, especially for those borderlines #2s and #3s. Ervin Santana got one from the Braves too, and I like him better than Liriano.
 
You sign a top guy, and you wait for the QO to drag the market for the borderline types and you get them for 2-3 years..
 

TomBrunansky23

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With MFYs making QO to Robertson, is he worth taking a run at?  Can't imagine him accepting the QO, and talking with him might accomplish nothing else but to drive the price up for them.  If Sox are willing to consider three years on Miller would it be so crazy to think of Robertson as a viable alternative at similar years/money (if he was willing to accept a set up role for now pending Koji's durability)?
 

snowmanny

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I've been expecting the Red Sox to sign some combination of two of Masterson/Volquez/Liriano/Maeda or something like that.  It still doesn't make sense to me that they would not have signed Lester when the "team-friendly" was in play if they were really going to sign him.  The optimism that he is coming back does has me second-guessing myself a little bit.  It also doesn't make a lot of sense to me that they would sign Shields to a contract larger than whatever they seemed to offer Lester.  Lester seems preferable on several levels.
 
But what if the reason that they didn't sign Lester is that faced with the desire to sign an ace to a huge money long-term contract in order to compete in the short-term they actually prefer Scherzer?  Is it totally out of the realm of possibility that between paying, say,  6/144 for Lester or 7/182 for Scherzer they actually think the higher K guy is the better choice?
I've just assumed they'd never go near that contract but they've surprised us before (not always with great results).
 
I still think it's something like Masterson/Liriano to the Red Sox and Scherzer to the Yankees but I do wonder if they are planning to make a run at the husky.
 

foulkehampshire

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Masterson isn't long for the rotation. His stuff took a big step backward, he's too platoon-able to maintain success through a lineup multiple times.
 
Any team that signs him will be putting him in the bullpen within 2 years. 
 

Snoop Soxy Dogg

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foulkehampshire said:
Masterson isn't long for the rotation. His stuff took a big step backward, he's too platoon-able to maintain success through a lineup multiple times.
 
Any team that signs him will be putting him in the bullpen within 2 years. 
 
Yeah, this. Masterson just hasn't been good for a while, I don't get the obsession with him when the Sox are clogged with #4/#5 types.  
I see a Lester + Santana/Maeda type; they sacrifice a second rounder (if at all), but I don't think they sacrifice any more than that.
 

67WasBest

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foulkehampshire said:
Masterson isn't long for the rotation. His stuff took a big step backward, he's too platoon-able to maintain success through a lineup multiple times.
 
Any team that signs him will be putting him in the bullpen within 2 years. 
It's being reported he'll be seeking a 1 year, make good deal at around $10M.  If so, he's worth a look.
 

foulkehampshire

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67WasBest said:
It's being reported he'll be seeking a 1 year, make good deal at around $10M.  If so, he's worth a look.
 
Ask any LHH. They've had plenty of looks and can tell you about the .320/.408/.508 line they put up against him in 317 PA last year.
 

67WasBest

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foulkehampshire said:
 
Ask any LHH. They've had plenty of looks and can tell you about the .320/.408/.508 line they put up against him in 317 PA last year.
I understand the risk, and I 'm not a strong advocate of signing him.  If they did make this move, it would be because Farrell thinks he knows how to fix the LHH issue, and they believe one of the three lefties will rise up to take that top of the rotation slot.  I'm not sure he can develop the out pitch he needs versus lefties from his arm angle and hope other options become real.
 

swingin val

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TomBrunansky23 said:
With MFYs making QO to Robertson, is he worth taking a run at?  Can't imagine him accepting the QO
How much would you need to sign him for in order for him to turn down 15.3 million dollars? 3/30? 3/36? How high are you willing to go, and how low would he be willing to go?
 

soxhop411

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I hope this is true, so we have less competition Jon Lester or Max Scherzer
 
 
Put the Panda heads away, Yankees fans; Pablo Sandoval isn’t coming to the Bronx. And you can add Max Scherzer, Jon Lester and James Shields to that list while you’re at it.
According to a source, the Yankees have no plans to pursue either Scherzer or Lester, the top two free agents on the market this winter. Shields, the third-best free-agent starter, is also off the Bombers’ radar, as is Sandoval, the Giants’ postseason hero who was given a $15.3 million qualifying offer by San Francisco before Monday’s deadline.
Instead, the Yankees are interested in bringing back two of their own, free agents Brandon McCarthy and Chase Headley, neither of whom was eligible to receive a qualifying offer after being traded to the Bronx this past July. A source said the Yankees would engage the pair aggressively in an attempt to lock them up.
McCarthy, who went 7-5 with a 2.89 ERA in 14 starts after being traded from Arizona last July, would slot in behind Masahiro Tanaka and Michael Pineda as a No. 3 starter, also joining CC Sabathia in the rotation.
Headley's situation is a little trickier given the return of Alex Rodriguez from his year-long suspension.
But the Yankees are interested in bringing back Headley, a sign that they are viewing A-Rod as a designated hitter. The 30-year-old switch-hitter batted .262 with six home runs and 17 RBI in 58 games after being acquired from the Padres before the trade deadline.
After spending more than $450 million last winter on Tanaka, Jacoby Ellsbury, Brian McCann and Carlos Beltran, the Yankees aren't looking to add any more $100 million deals to their payroll, which ranked second behind the Dodgers last season, taking Scherzer, Lester and Shields out of play.
Last year, the Yankees spoke repeatedly about getting underneath the $189 million luxury tax threshold before going on their spending spree. A second straight year without the playoffs has many believing the same will happen this winter, though with the return of A-Rod and his $21 million salary as well as the risks involved with giving players lengthy, big-money contracts, the Yankees appear ready to look toward mid-level free agents to fill the holes on their roster
http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yankees/yankees-plans-pursue-free-agents-pablo-sandoval-jon-lester-max-scherzer-article-1.1997950?cid=bitly
 

Fireball Fred

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I wonder whether Cespedes plus would be enough to get Cleveland to part with Salazar. He's not the top-of-the-rotation guy(s) the Sox need, but he is the young high-K stud they should also look to add - especially if they sign Shields. Cleveland, who should be going for it, and Philly, rebuilding, seem to be the polar opposite trade partners who could help the Sox rebalance their assets.
 

RIrooter09

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So the Yankees are looking at a rotation of Tanaka, Pineda, McCarthy, Sabathia, and Nova? I wonder if even two of them can make it to 200 innings.
 

MakMan44

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I think people are overrating how much a single season of Cespedes is worth, especially since he can't be offered a QO. I have a hard time seeing him being the centerpiece of any deal that nets the Sox a good cost controlled player.
 

soxhop411

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mBiferi said:
 
This is every winter's song...
Eh. Nobody believed them last year once A-rods salary was taken off the books. Might be harder to do what they did last year again.
 

soxhop411

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“@brianmacp: From the generally optimistic Bill James Handbook: Betts projected to hit .331/.405/.493; Castillo .261/.316/.462; Cespedes .267/.319/.467.”
 

KillerBs

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Has anyone other than the Yanks, Bosox and the Cubs been tied to Scherzer or Lester? The little I read about the Dodgers and Angels suggests that they are not looking to add more big contracts. The Rangers, Mariners, Tigers and Nats seem highly unlikely. Where else might these 2 go? The Os? If the Yanks are truly out, doesn't that fundamentally change the market for these 2? It would seem to flip it from a situation where you want to move quick to ensure you get 1 of them to a one where you would be better off being the primary serious suitor for the one who is left. 
 

ehaz

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Holy shit has Bill James gone off his Mookie Betts fapping rocker if that projection is real...
 

Pilgrim

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The Yankees had a huge spending spree last season, and between that and ARod's return they're basically at the tax already. Do they want to drop tens of millions of dollars in tax to win 88 games? I actually kind of buy that they're not going to go nuts in free agency.

Obviously that might be wishcasting. Their needs are the same as ours, so that would be a huge boost to the Sox offseason fortunes.
 

Niastri

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Yeah, that's crazy talk. Pretty sure that would be top 10 of all hitters in terms of OPS.
 
Those projected numbers would have resulted in being third in OBP and tied for 14th in SLG among all qualified players last year.
 
Clearly a bit optimistic.  I would be thrilled if he hit 100 ops lower than that!
 

Fireball Fred

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True, of course; but I thought of Cleveland specifically because they might go all-out to win in '15, and they could use a left fielder with power. Conversely Philadelphia, with no hope of winning now, might be willing to trade older but still good players for decent but not top prospects (e.g., most of our young pitchers).
 

nvalvo

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Niastri said:
 
Those projected numbers would have resulted in being third in OBP and tied for 14th in SLG among all qualified players last year.
 
Clearly a bit optimistic.  I would be thrilled if he hit 100 ops lower than that!
 
Steamer has him at .290/.358/.425. More realistic; still excellent!
 
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