Your 2015 Boston Red Sox
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2nd base was a problem all season long, and Beane deserves fault for not upgrading it. I also agree with the Holliday trade assessment but every GM is going to have a shitty trade from time to time. That being said, the A's were pretty middle of the pack in most offensive categories but it's not like offense has been driving the postseason anyway. The O's were the only team left in the postseason that beat the A's by wRC+ in the regular season and as Max points out, it wasn't exactly a problem in their PS game this year.Al Zarilla said:
MakMan44 said:
It would give him financial security. With pitchers, there's always a relatively decent chance that they'll get hurt. I think his freakishly low walk rate will appeal to the Red Sox front office. Phil Hughes would be another interesting name, he had an insane walk rate of 0.69/9 IP last year. At 28 years old, he's still relatively young. And the Twins probably don't have much use for him considering they won't be competitive next year.
What about Luis Valbuena at third? He's entering years two and three or arbitration and Kris Bryant should be up with the Cubs next year. Valbuena would be a considerably cheaper and possibly shorter term alternative to Chase Headley. He's hit .235/.337/.412 (108 wRC+) the last two years to Headley's .246/.338/.387 (109 wRC+), he has a 10.2 UZR/150 at third base to Headley's 10.8 and he's also lefthanded. Could be the difference between us affording an extra free agent starter or not.
I thought the same thing. As long as you only start him vs. Rs. He had a 124 wRC+ vs. Rs (.811 OPS).Hoplite said:
Food for thought. Rany was talking on Twitter about how the Royals' "plan" is very hard to emulate, and his rationale is:
https://twitter.com/jazayerli/status/522795697784229888
The funny thing about this is that the Sox could do this in 2015. Betts/JBJ/Castillo in the OF, re-sign Miller and Koji (assuming Koji returns to form), and move Workman back to the 'pen. And your defense is still superb is you go Cespedes/Betts/Castillo most of the time, then switch to Betts/JBJ/Castillo for late innings.
Then you've got a bullpen of Miller/Workman/Taz/Koji and a ridiculous OF defense. Of course, the hit you take on offense with JBJ probably makes this impractical, but it's interesting to consider.
https://twitter.com/jazayerli/status/522795697784229888
The funny thing about this is that the Sox could do this in 2015. Betts/JBJ/Castillo in the OF, re-sign Miller and Koji (assuming Koji returns to form), and move Workman back to the 'pen. And your defense is still superb is you go Cespedes/Betts/Castillo most of the time, then switch to Betts/JBJ/Castillo for late innings.
Then you've got a bullpen of Miller/Workman/Taz/Koji and a ridiculous OF defense. Of course, the hit you take on offense with JBJ probably makes this impractical, but it's interesting to consider.
nattysez said:
There's a few other dimensions that make up the Royals' approach, including having three guys with 30+ steal potential. The Red Sox leader this year was Brock Holt, with 12. There's also an enormous difference between Holland/Davis/Herrera (1.44, 1.00, 1.41 ERA) and Miller/Taz/Koji (2.02/2.86/2.52). Like, an extra three runs over the course of a 7 game series difference. Which, when the KCR margin of difference in the four games against the Orioles was six runs, is actually kind of important. Oh yeah and of the five starting pitchers that made up 93% of their starts this year, Jeremy Guthrie had the worst ERA at 4.13. That would have made him our #2. But basically, just like Kansas City, we could have a pretty good outfield defense next year.
kieckeredinthehead said:
An outfield with Castillo and Betts in it will probably have at least two.
Cespedes could get 20. Victorino can steal a bag too. This team should be more 2013 than 2014 as far as SB, but the bullpen is vastly different than the Royals. That can't be emulated and won't be.
nattysez said:
Even with all those factors, they still barely made the wildcard game and needed a fucking miracle to beat the A's. Honestly, I don't feel comfortable AT ALL emulating that strategy. Obviously, if the Red Sox can have a dominant bullpen and terrific outfield defense, that will certainly help them in 2015. I just don't think that should necessarily be the FO's focus going into next season.
rodderick said:
But you're not emulating the entirety of the strategy - you're not trying to be last in the league in walks and homers. You're simply adopting part of it - and who's against OF defense and lock-down late-inning relievers in the abstract, anyway?
Alcohol&Overcalls said:
Well, but then the point becomes trivial. Obviously we want to be awesome at everything, but that's not a strategy. The question is, would prioritizing OF defense and the bullpen, and focusing resources on improving them, lead to overall improvement?
MakMan44 said:
Sure. But I think it's flawed to think that that alone could vault the Red Sox into World Series contention next year. If the FO looks at the current roster and says "hey, if we just sign Andrew Miller, put Workman on the bullpen fulltime, and field Cespedes/Mookie/Castillo in the OF, we'll probably be alright", I'm not sure I'd be comfortable with that. Sure, you could say "oh, but they'd make other additions to that core, they surely wouldn't stop there", then you're not really following the Royals model, so I don't know why that comparison was made.
In sum: putting relievers and defense as the primary concerns when building a team seems awfully flimsy to me.
MakMan44 said:
Yeah, but then you can dig a little deeper and question the odds of Miller/Workman/Uehara being nearly as good as Herrera/Davis/Holland have been this year in the back of the bullpen. Or if, for the OF defense to be truly great, wouldn't JBJ necessarily be a part of that equation? Seems to me that the "in-house" options for a dominant bullpen and tremendous OF defense rely on pretty bullish projections/wilfully weakening other aspects of the team.
To be fair, how likely is it that the Royal's pen is this good again?rodderick said:
The whole BP/OF defense is good in theory I think because as Savin says, you want to be awesome in every aspect you can, but I'm of the opinion that the Royals caught lightning in a bottle. Relying on something that is going vary heavily season to season probably isn't the best way to win a WS.
MakMan44 said:
The odds of them being this good again don't really matter. Their bullpen was terrific this season and one of the main reasons the team has gotten this far. If you're building a team trying to emulate the Royals model, you're doing so based on how having a dominant bullpen worked for them this year, and not how it projects over time.
The second paragraph of your post just reflects my opinion 100%.
The bullpen becomes very important in the postseason because with the offdays, relievers are able to pitch many more innings. In the playoffs, Herrera, Davis and Holland have been pitching something like a third of the team's innings (would be 200+ inning workloads over a full season). But we'd have to get there first. I don't think prioritizing the defense would be all that hard. We'd probably just go with a defense of Betts, Castillo and Victorino (if he's heatlhy).
STEAMER's 2015 projections are out. Some interesting stuff. Here's a link to the Sox' offense.
http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer&team=3&players=0
http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer&team=3&players=0
Pedroia, Victorino and Holt projected for just one PA each? Something a little funky going on there.
If we get those seasons out of Bogaerts, Betts, Cespedes and Craig, they are going to win a lot of games. That's like a 4.5 win improvement from those 4 players alone with Ortiz and Napoli basically treading water. Anything you get from Victorino is an improvement over this year, and a healthy season from Pedroia would go a long way toward getting this team back to the playoffs. Big if, but if these projections are anywhere near accurate, they might not have as far to go in reaching the playoffs as we fear.
Not sure how much that's worth, as projections systems, even at their best, tend to have some really big misses from year to year. It's nice to see, though.
Not sure how much that's worth, as projections systems, even at their best, tend to have some really big misses from year to year. It's nice to see, though.
The pitching projections are a big cold bucket of water. But those are worth even less, e.g. more likely for names to change.Snodgrass'Muff said:
What is the fld? Is it fwar? Napoli and Cespedes grade well, Xander is awful.
Edit: Also none of those hitting projections scream no way unless you think Craig is done.
Edit: Also none of those hitting projections scream no way unless you think Craig is done.
Hoplite said:
This is why I'm pretty into Cherington. Even his 'worst' trades/transactions -- Reddick for Bailey; Lowrie for Melancon -- were predicated on an understanding that runs were shrinking, relievers were becoming more important. He just happened to miss.
And even that's debatable, because Melancon's incredible and we don't know what Bailey'd be if he weren't hurt.
chawson said:
Please do not try to justify Cherington's trades for relievers.
"Melancon's incredible." He has never pitched like anything more than hot garbage when in the AL. Jed Lowrie spent the past two years playing 130+ games for a playoff team. This was a bad trade.
"We don't know what Bailey'd be if he weren't hurt." That's because he's always hurt, which is why Beane traded him, and which is why it was a mistake to trade for him.
And you conveniently leave out Hanrahan, which was another dumpster fire of a deal.
When the Sox have a good year Cherrington is a genius
When the Sox have a bad year Cherrington is an idiot
The Armchair GM's are genius every year...after the fact of course.
When the Sox have a bad year Cherrington is an idiot
The Armchair GM's are genius every year...after the fact of course.
Hoplite said:
I think Cherington didn't expect the team to contend and was "investing" in Hanrahan to flip at the deadline — basically, trying to turn prospects plus cash into better prospects — or prospects that that fit our window better — a few months later.
But... Hanrahan got hurt, and the team *did* contend, and now it's a puzzling move in retrospect. If the Sox go 84-78 in 2013 and Cherington sends Hanrahan and Brentz to Detroit for Avisail Garcia, he's a genius.
nattysez said:
The juxtaposition of the bolded phrases is one of the most unintentionally funny things posted around here in a long time.
So Hassan has a .712 OPS? Right. And how is that possible with 1 PA anyway? Looks like way too many flaws on that projection for me to take the gestalt seriously.chrisfont9 said:
Nothing is everything going to be perfect or exact. They're just projections, a starting point at best. Dismissing them out of is silly because even the guys who put this things up don't expect them to completely correct.maxotaur said:
I'm not talking about if Ortiz hits 27 or 32 HRs next year. I'm speaking of items like Pedy and Victorino having one PA each. And yes - Hassan garnering a .712 OPS (have you seen him try to hit?). These are some pretty glaring issues that, yes, make wary of the rest of the projections.MakMan44 said:
nattysez said:
Mark Melancon
For Boston: 41 g, 45.0 ip, 45 h, 31 er, 12 bb, 41 k, 6.20 era, 1.27 whip, 8.2 k/9
For everyone besides Boston (including 15 games with the NYY): 250 g, 254.0 ip, 208 h, 66 er, 63 bb, 239 k, 2.34 era, 1.07 whip, 8.5 k/9
It's ridiculous.
Have you seen Alex Hassan hit? He has performed quite well in AAA the last two years, despite missing part of 2013 due to injury and having a rough start to 2014. He's a solid contact, very good OBP guy who now in his mid/late 20's is starting to flash a bit more power. Is he a guy you want to pencil in as a regular or even on the 25 man roster? No, but he's far more likely to hit >.700 in the majors than Brock Holt was circa April 2014.maxotaur said:
Hell, they project a .256/.337/.376 line for Hassan. That includes a healthy decline in BB%, ISO,and BABIP. It isn't like they're suggesting he's going to suddenly beat the cover off the ball.
As for Pedroia and Vic having so few ABs, well, both ended the season with dubious health. I wouldn't really expect a computer model to handle their odds of healthy return very well and many models do exactly what this did, run the player's historic data through, assign the averaging stats somewhat accurately, then attach an incredibly low opportunity rate as it has no worthwhile data to enhance that with. The actual average stats attached to Pedroia and Vic aren't too far from the likely realities we'll see, just with a lot more ABs.
Can we all agree that it's obviously a bug in their code that there are a bunch of guys projected to 1 PA?
Presumably, that will get fixed at some point. Whether that bug affects other parts of the projection page is an open question, but not one that we can solve by debating it here.
Presumably, that will get fixed at some point. Whether that bug affects other parts of the projection page is an open question, but not one that we can solve by debating it here.
I'd deal him for prospects even if they aren't immediately turned into something useful to the big club.soxhop411 said:
It would clear up the outfield situation while providing a little more cash to get the pitchers and third baseman by free agency.
Mind you, I want them to be good prospects or I'd rather keep what we have.
Mets and Mariners would seem like the two most logical fits for Cespedes, just eyeballing rosters. Maybe part of a Niese/Murphy deal with the Mets - is Cespedes enough for those two? Too much?
EDIT: I guess the Royals would work, too, if they're willing to spend the cash. No idea for whom, though.
EDIT: I guess the Royals would work, too, if they're willing to spend the cash. No idea for whom, though.
A deal with the Reds for Cueto looks like a nice match for both teams. The Reds need a hitter in LF and have a need to clean up their FA mess for the end of next season. when 3 of the 5 starters hit the market. I'm sure they'd prefer to move Latos, but BC should hold out for Cueto.E5 Yaz said:
Send Cespedes and Webster for Cueto and a high ceiling prospect. Reds get offense where they need it, and fill a spot in their rotation; while the Sox get a top of the rotation starter at a low cost, and clean up the outfield logjam somewhat. The years are balanced and the money is equal.
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