2023-24 Yankees Offseason Discussion

jon abbey

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Montgomery is a Boras client, most obvious Heyman of the winter so far.

And he wasn't good enough to crack that 4 man postseason rotation in 2022 (Cole/Cortes/Severino/Taillon), anything else is revisionist history. He would of course be a nice addition but I don't think they would go with three lefties in a rotation. so either they plan to deal Nestor or I don't buy it. Also if they did go after a LHP, I think I'd prefer Snell and maybe Imanaga too, sorry Jordan.

NY is going hard after Yamamoto because he would be a great addition to any team, but besides him, I think there will be a team decidedly more desperate than NY to grab all of the next bunch of guys, although if NY has to send 2-3 SPs to SD as part of a Soto deal, that might change.
 

Wingack

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Montgomery is a Boras client, most obvious Heyman of the winter so far.

And he wasn't good enough to crack that 4 man postseason rotation in 2022 (Cole/Cortes/Severino/Taillon), anything else is revisionist history. He would of course be a nice addition but I don't think they would go with three lefties in a rotation. so either they plan to deal Nestor or I don't buy it. Also if they did go after a LHP, I think I'd prefer Snell and maybe Imanaga too, sorry Jordan.
I agree that he wasn't. The trade for Bader made sense.
 

jon abbey

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Or replacing him if there's another bad start? It's got to be in the realm of possibility.
Bob Klapisch wrote this today too although he's traditionally always wrong. Ausmus certainly has the experience but a pretty lousy track record, but again I don't think NY actually lets their managers make many baseball decisions.

On a different note, it has been reported a bunch of times that NYY are the most likely destination if Juan Soto is dealt, which passes the smell test to me given the package NY would I think be willing to give up.

What I disagree with is what I've also seen said a few times, that SD has all the leverage here as they can always hold onto him and then move him at the deadline. Right now NY I am guessing is willing to give up 3 SPs, a replacement OF (Pereira?) and a C (Higashioka, he's a Cali boy too). NY has a huge pool to draw from for SPs, they have younger guys farther away too but if they want three who should be able to help this season, I think all of these guys fit that description and are potentially available (certain combos maybe not, but basically they can let SD pick 3 from this list):

Cortes (through 2025)
Schmidt (through 2027)
King (through 2025)
Vasquez
Beeter
Warren
Thorpe
Hampton
Fitts

The bottom six all have full control, the bottom four don't even need 40 man spots yet if SD preferred.

So that's a lot for one season of a $33M Juan Soto, I think, although NY would be thrilled to do it. That is a net 4 26 man roster spots SD can potentially fill immediately, while saving a bunch of money.

But I think if SD keeps him and then tries to deal him at the deadline, NY would probably let him go elsewhere and then just go after him as a FA next winter if they wanted (which would also give them another year to figure out what would be a positional muddle with Judge/Soto/Stanton).
 

RedOctober3829

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This is pretty cool
In the case of the New York Yankees and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, it’s a small but potentially meaningful part of a courtship.
According to league sources, the Yanks have purposefully held the number 18 for Yamamoto over the past year. That is not only Yamamoto’s number with the Orix Buffaloes, but is traditionally considered the "ace" number in Japan

https://sny.tv/articles/yankees-have-been-saving-yoshinobu-yamamoto-uniform-number.
 

E5 Yaz

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This is pretty cool
In the case of the New York Yankees and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, it’s a small but potentially meaningful part of a courtship.
According to league sources, the Yanks have purposefully held the number 18 for Yamamoto over the past year. That is not only Yamamoto’s number with the Orix Buffaloes, but is traditionally considered the "ace" number in Japan

https://sny.tv/articles/yankees-have-been-saving-yoshinobu-yamamoto-uniform-number.
Red Sox did the same with Dice K
 

Murderer's Crow

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I'd rather wait another year if the price is that high and hope Soto reaches free agency.
Why? As long as we aren't trading our young starters in the infield, I don't see an immediate need for some of the prospects we would likely be giving up and on top of that, we need to capitalize on Cole and Judge's prime years (and Soto for that matter) as much as possible. Bird in the hand.
 

EvilEmpire

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Why? As long as we aren't trading our young starters in the infield, I don't see an immediate need for some of the prospects we would likely be giving up and on top of that, we need to capitalize on Cole and Judge's prime years (and Soto for that matter) as much as possible. Bird in the hand.
Of the names on that list, which I understand is just speculation, I don't agree with trading Dominguez, Volpe, or Michael King for a one year rental. I think all three of those guys are likely to be a part of the next great Yankees team.

Schmidt I'd be fine with.

I don't think Soto is essential to the Yankees being competitive next year.
 

jon abbey

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I’m fine with including King, just two years of control left, but 5-6 years of Dominguez or Volpe for one year of Soto at $33M is absurd. It’s not even clear how Judge, Soto and Stanton all fit in the same lineup positionally, Soto would be a defensive nightmare in NY’s big LF.
 

jon abbey

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When the Dodgers traded for 1 year of Mookie Betts at big money, one major difference is that Betts is a spectacular defensive player, while Soto is a lousy corner OF and probably should be a DH.

Again I'm all for NY going after Soto hard, but Dominguez and Volpe are completely off the table, Roderick Arias too IMO. NY has plenty of other talent to include, SD needs to move him more than NY needs to get him.
 

Murderer's Crow

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I think we'd either move Soto to RF and move Judge back there if we don't extend Soto or re-sign him. Or we'd not care about his defense because he's so good offensively.

I'm still worried Judge is going to do permanent damage to himself in the Yankees RF with the frequency that he dives and goes all out. Big man small area.
 

jon abbey

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I think we'd either move Soto to RF and move Judge back there if we don't extend Soto or re-sign him. Or we'd not care about his defense because he's so good offensively.
They'd definitely figure it out but it's still a negative, not a positive.
 

BigSoxFan

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Isn’t Stanton basically a sunk cost at this point? He has a 211 game sample of being a 100 OPS+ player last 2 years and is only getting older. I’m surprised the Yankees don’t just heavily subsidize him to get out of there and open up the DH position more.
 

jon abbey

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Isn’t Stanton basically a sunk cost at this point? He has a 211 game sample of being a 100 OPS+ player last 2 years and is only getting older. I’m surprised the Yankees don’t just heavily subsidize him to get out of there and open up the DH position more.
Yeah, that’s a big question, dunno.
 

Murderer's Crow

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I don't think Stanton is a sunk cost, I think he still has a lot of offense left in him but I just don't think he fits in too great on this team anymore....until he's a DH during the postseason.
 

ThePrideofShiner

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I'd be more inclined to trade Volpe to San Diego if it means they take Stanton as well. Or I'd sell Stanton to Seattle for a very light return if possible.

At this point, I'd rather keep Gleyber than Stanton.
 

Murderer's Crow

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To continue on the Stanton subject, I read this last month but didn't think the forum would care enough.

https://clutchpoints.com/yankees-of-giancarlo-stantons-disappointing-season-draws-eye-opening-admission-from-hitting-expert

“Although Stanton's bat speed dropped from 81.3 mph in 2021 to 77.2 mph in 2023, according to Baseball America, his bat speed is still graded well. Stokey said Stanton's swing path is more of a problem than his bat speed. His bat path is pretty steep down downhill and pretty flat downhill,” Stokey said, via Kirschner. “When he hits the ball flush, his launch angles are low so he's gonna cut underneath the ball. That's how you get the high pop-up percentage. So the thing with him is it's very clear that there's bat path changes that need to be made.”
That sounds...fixable.
 

moondog80

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BTV has Stanton's contract as worth about 18 million. So the Yanks would have to eat about 80 mil to get someone to take him for nothing in return. That sounds about right.
 

Murderer's Crow

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BTV has Stanton's contract as worth about 18 million. So the Yanks would have to eat about 80 mil to get someone to take him for nothing in return. That sounds about right.
About 29 teams would line up to sign Stanton for $18m over the next 5 years. Do you mean $18m/yr?
 

moondog80

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About 29 teams would line up to sign Stanton for $18m over the next 5 years. Do you mean $18m/yr?
No. 18 mil total. Did you really think I meant that he could feasibly get 90 mil for 5 years on the open market? -0.8 WAR this year, 0.7 the year before. And he's going to be 34 years old.
 

Murderer's Crow

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No. 18 mil total. Did you really think I meant that he could feasibly get 90 mil for 5 years on the open market? -0.8 WAR this year, 0.7 the year before. And he's going to be 34 years old.
No, but I also think it's absurd to think Stanton's market is $3.5m per year, which is what you indicated other teams would be willing to pay in a trade where the Yankees want to offload Stanton. He might have dropped off a cliff, but at 34, it's not unreasonable to say that there's plenty more in him with a lot more upside than 0.00 WAR. JD Martinez says hello.
 

BigSoxFan

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I don't think Stanton is a sunk cost, I think he still has a lot of offense left in him but I just don't think he fits in too great on this team anymore....until he's a DH during the postseason.
Not being snarky at all here but…why? What have you seen to suggest he has a lot of offense left in him? He has a .286 OBP in his last 211 games and has basically turned into Rob Deer. There is still some power in that bat but I don’t see much else. He also doesn’t profile as a guy who will age well due to his lower body injuries.
 

moondog80

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No, but I also think it's absurd to think Stanton's market is $3.5m per year, which is what you indicated other teams would be willing to pay in a trade where the Yankees want to offload Stanton. He might have dropped off a cliff, but at 34, it's not unreasonable to say that there's plenty more in him with a lot more upside than 0.00 WAR.
If the Yankees said "we will give Stanton away, for nothing in return, to whoever offers to pay the most of his contract", what do you think the highest bid would be? Because that's what we're talking about, right?. If he were a FA, I think he'd get more than 3.5 mil AAV on a short term deal. But that's not an option. You trade for Stanton, you get 5 years. Tough for me to imagine a team offering much more than 18 mil of 20 mil.
 
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Murderer's Crow

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Not being snarky at all here but…why? What have you seen to suggest he has a lot of offense left in him? He has a .286 OBP in his last 211 games and has basically turned into Rob Deer. There is still some power in that bat but I don’t see much else. He also doesn’t profile as a guy who will age well due to his lower body injuries.
Injuries are the key, but he still has near-elite level bat speed even with his struggles, as indicated above in the article I posted. It seems as if his problem is not aging, it's decision making and swing path. Those are fixable issues for a player who still hits balls 118mph.
 

jon abbey

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Injuries are the key, but he still has near-elite level bat speed even with his struggles, as indicated above in the article I posted. It seems as if his problem is not aging, it's decision making and swing path. Those are fixable issues for a player who still hits balls 118mph.
They weren’t last year, fully agree with @moondog80.

DHs aren’t worth much unless they’re really a superlative hitter, you lose flexibility with your lineup and your roster by having a perma-DH.
 

Murderer's Crow

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If the Yankees said "we will give Stanton away, for nothing in return, to whoever offers to pay the most of his contract", what do you think the highest bid would be?
Good question. Steamer projects Stanton to have a 1 WAR next year.

Let's look at some current DH contracts - Edit: I wanted to pull more players but don't have the time right now. Just puleld the first few that popped up.

Nick Castellanos is making $20m/yr and had a 1.5 WAR last year
Marcell Ozuna is making $16.25m/yr and had a 3.3 WAR last year
Jorge Soler is making $12m/yr and had a 1.8 WAR last year
JD Martinez made $10m last year and had a 1.9 WAR last year

The MLB 2023 price per WAR is around $6m. That means Stanton is "worth" around $30m if you project out 1 WAR per year (might be generous but the $ per WAR also varies a lot year by year and is projected to keep increasing). So, to answer the question, my gut would say that in a nothing for Stanton trade, the Yankees would need to eat at least 60% of the contract but would be likely to pair a prospect with him or even Gleyber to eat less.
 

Murderer's Crow

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Let me also round this out with a point related to the thread....

I'd rather gamble keeping Stanton than paying 80% of his contract and getting nothing in return. I don't want Stanton clogging up a roster spot with a shitty OPS or WAR but I also think there's enough left in him to be a threat in the 6 or 7 spot in the lineup when/if healthy during a postseason run.
 

jon abbey

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I haven't heard word 1 about Stanton from NY this winter but my guess is they start the season with him as DH, and if he still isn't hitting by the time Dominguez is back in July or August, he is dumped.
 

Murderer's Crow

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I haven't heard word 1 about Stanton from NY this winter but my guess is they start the season with him as DH, and if he still isn't hitting by the time Dominguez is back in July or August, he is dumped.
Except the part where Cashman kind of poopooed him?

And you think Cashman will dump Stanton? The same GM who rolled out players like Sanchez and Donaldson well past the point where it was obvious they were a net negative? I will donate $100 to your favorite charity if Stanton is "released" this year for performance issues.
 

moondog80

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Except the part where Cashman kind of poopooed him?

And you think Cashman will dump Stanton? The same GM who rolled out players like Sanchez and Donaldson well past the point where it was obvious they were a net negative? I will donate $100 to your favorite charity if Stanton is "released" this year for performance issues.
Sanchez and Donaldson could still field key positions. I agree that Stanton has a real chance to still provide value. But if he puts up another OPS+ of 87 and the Yankees are in contention, I can’t see them wasting a roster spot on him, whether that means releasing him outright or paying 95% of his salary and getting fringe prospect just to save face.
 

jon abbey

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Yeah I don’t believe that anymore than the Dominguez nonsense from the other side. There’s a clear middle ground here that should work for both teams.
 

JM3

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Eh...I'm sure they are reluctant to trade those guys for 1 year of Soto...

A source tells The Athletic that the Yankees are reluctant to surrender upper-echelon young talent in terms of prospects (such as righty starting pitcher Drew Thorpe) or recently-arrived big-leaguers (such as Jasson Domínguez and shortstop Anthony Volpe).
https://theathletic.com/5100401/2023/11/29/yankees-padres-juan-soto-cody-bellinger/

I think Thorpe is on a different level as a pitching prospect than the rest of the Yankees guys & I think they should be able to get it done with the Schmidt/Warren/Hampton tier being involved while not making Thorpe available.
 

jon abbey

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NY picks up former CLE OF Oscar Gonzalez off waivers, now their 40 man is at 37. Gonzalez was dreadful last year but is still pretty young, 26 in January, and was pretty solid in 2022. He had the game-winning RBI in game 3 of the ALDS against NY. Maybe @Sad Sam Jones can tell us if he thinks there's any potential here, but anyway the 40 man spot was open.
 

RedOctober3829

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“Momentum between the Yankees and San Diego Padres about a blockbuster Juan Soto trade has stalled, at least for now, after the sides found themselves far apart on Thursday and Friday.

According to league sources briefed on talks, San Diego was asking for pitcher Michael King, pitching prospect Drew Thorpe, and as many as four or five other prospects like Randy Vasquez and Jhony Brito. San Diego was also interested in salary relief not just for Soto but for center fielder Trent Grisham, sources say.

Jasson Dominguez and Anthony Volpe are not involved in these talks, nor are Gleyber Torres, Austin Wells or Everson Pereira, per sources.

The Padres are said to believe the Yankees are acting like the only plausible suitors for Soto. The Yankees are said to be balking at moving the highly valuable King plus many others for a one-year rental and significant cash (there is no expectation that Soto will sign an extension prior to hitting free agency).

“If they think they can get a deal from another club like the one they're asking for from the Yankees, they should do it right now,” one baseball official said of the Padres.”
https://sny.tv/articles/sources-momentum-stalls-for-now-at-least-on-yankees-padres-juan-soto-talks
 

moondog80

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“Momentum between the Yankees and San Diego Padres about a blockbuster Juan Soto trade has stalled, at least for now, after the sides found themselves far apart on Thursday and Friday.

According to league sources briefed on talks, San Diego was asking for pitcher Michael King, pitching prospect Drew Thorpe, and as many as four or five other prospects like Randy Vasquez and Jhony Brito. San Diego was also interested in salary relief not just for Soto but for center fielder Trent Grisham, sources say.

Jasson Dominguez and Anthony Volpe are not involved in these talks, nor are Gleyber Torres, Austin Wells or Everson Pereira, per sources.

The Padres are said to believe the Yankees are acting like the only plausible suitors for Soto. The Yankees are said to be balking at moving the highly valuable King plus many others for a one-year rental and significant cash (there is no expectation that Soto will sign an extension prior to hitting free agency).

“If they think they can get a deal from another club like the one they're asking for from the Yankees, they should do it right now,” one baseball official said of the Padres.”
https://sny.tv/articles/sources-momentum-stalls-for-now-at-least-on-yankees-padres-juan-soto-talks

I don't get the Trent Grisham part. He's only due to make about 4 mil in arb, and SD could have just non-tendered him.

Anyway, the Padres are correctly trying to squeeze everything they can out of this, and the Yankees are correctly balking at their out-of-touch first offer.
 

Wingack

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“Momentum between the Yankees and San Diego Padres about a blockbuster Juan Soto trade has stalled, at least for now, after the sides found themselves far apart on Thursday and Friday.

According to league sources briefed on talks, San Diego was asking for pitcher Michael King, pitching prospect Drew Thorpe, and as many as four or five other prospects like Randy Vasquez and Jhony Brito. San Diego was also interested in salary relief not just for Soto but for center fielder Trent Grisham, sources say.

Jasson Dominguez and Anthony Volpe are not involved in these talks, nor are Gleyber Torres, Austin Wells or Everson Pereira, per sources.

The Padres are said to believe the Yankees are acting like the only plausible suitors for Soto. The Yankees are said to be balking at moving the highly valuable King plus many others for a one-year rental and significant cash (there is no expectation that Soto will sign an extension prior to hitting free agency).

“If they think they can get a deal from another club like the one they're asking for from the Yankees, they should do it right now,” one baseball official said of the Padres.”
https://sny.tv/articles/sources-momentum-stalls-for-now-at-least-on-yankees-padres-juan-soto-talks
While this looks bad, SD is already off Martian and Volpe, I expect their demands will lessen further and an agreement will be reached. Schmidt/Thorpe/solid prospect
 

ThePrideofShiner

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I don't think I realized Severino signed with the Mets. Good for him and the Yankees, I suppose. Still makes me sad. Such a tremendous talent when healthy, which of course is basically never.
 

jon abbey

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Anyway, the Padres are correctly trying to squeeze everything they can out of this, and the Yankees are correctly balking at their out-of-touch first offer.
Yep, this, it really makes too much sense both ways to not happen. I don't think anyone else is giving up 2-3 young pitchers plus other pieces, but NY could and will, I think.