I went to look at the same stuff. There's something I'm not understanding about those numbers from BRef, since they all seem inclusive of the previous category. (the PA numbers dont add up).
Tiny sample sizes of overlapping stats:
Is it even worth that? I get that he has name recognition, but his performance for St. Louis this year was worse than just about any pitcher the Sox have run out there this year. Unless Sox staff think they've got a magic bullet cure for him and he's going to revert back to 2013-2014 vintage Greg Holland, I'm not sure why they'd bother.
I was getting at the same thing. As long as he's not in Boston, or occupying Boston payroll, let him spend time in Rhode Island if he wants.
Certainly gives credence to the notion that there was something wrong mechanically for him. All of this goodness has come since they claimed they'd diagnosed the flaw and fixed it. Very encouraging.
Chapman, Betances, Britton, Robertson, and heck, while we’re at it, Green. It’s been an encouraging couple days, but let’s not get hyperbolic. The Sox have plenty of guys who can be good enough, but aside from Kimbrel none of those guys have any type of consistent track record. That being said, there’s no clear and obvious upgrade available in trade, so I certainly wouldn’t be using assets for another arm that’s no better bet to be good than what we currently have.
I didn't say they were "better than"... just saying that I'd put them up against. This group could hold a top offense scoreless for 3,4 innings. I have confidence in them in the playoffs. They don't play head to head against the other team's bullpens, y'know...
Fair point, I overread your initial statement. But that being said, even if the bullpens don’t go head to head, the Sox most likely need to get through the Yankees in the playoffs. Tie game through 6 with the game being handed off to the bullpens... I sure as heck feel better in that situation if I’m a Yankees fan.
How would you feel about their starting pitching?
Sox absolutely have better SP depth, no question. But in games started by anyone but Severino, we likely get a healthy dose of their top 5 bullpen guys starting as early as the 5th inning. And I wouldn’t call it a “slight edge” in pen depth. NYY definitely have 3 of the best 4, and you could make an argument for 5 of the best 6 RP in the (for now hypothetical) series.
I think people forget this but... Matt Barnes is good. He's better than David Robertson or Zach Britton.
They absolutely do not have 3 of the best 4. Chapman and Kimbrel are a wash, but Barnes is better than any of their guys this season. You're overstating that advantage, again.
I’ll give you that Barnes’s numbers this year are as good or better than any of the non-Chapman Yankee guys, but I think we’re supposed to consider track record too. Jed Lowrie has a higher WAR than Manny Machado this year, but I don’t think anyone would argue that he’s the better player or more likely to play better going forward (yes, hyperbolic example thrown out for effect, before anyone jumps all over the analogy).
Baserunners are baserunners. Why do you care about walks if he's exceptionally difficult to hit? His WHIP is 1.09.
This is a little too strong. There's more than one way to skin the run prevention cat, and walking a lot of people is not necessarily fatal for a reliever if part of the reason why you're walking a lot of people is that your stuff is so filthy it drives huge K rates or minimal hard contact rates (in Barnes' case, it's doing both). That would explain the success of, for instance:
Yes, I'm absolutely cherry picking.
You're also not giving defenders a chance to make an error, or or giving yourself a chance to get taken to bonertown by BABIP. There's multiple ways to reach the end of a journey.
I’m not downplaying the current season, I’m just saying we should take into account a little bit longer body of work - since when have we only looked at one year in evaluating talent? All I’m saying is, while Barnes has put up arguably the best numbers of that group this season, it’s not like his numbers are so far above and beyond the other guys that we shouldn’t be considering track record as well. The other three guys have all demonstrated a higher ceiling in the recent past with similar or higher floor. It’s entirely plausible that Barnes’s career season has been driven by expected progression as he gains experience while the other guys (mostly Betances, Robertson) are experiencing some age related decline. But, suggesting Barnes is clearly the more talented pitcher based on slightly better stats from 100 games is insane to me. Given the choice between two guys with generally similar current numbers, why wouldn’t you take the guy with a multi-year track record over the one who has done it for ~2/3 of a season?
Of course not. Everyone good had to start from a place of not having a track record. But a player with one is more projectable than one without, no?
Shouldn't Brasier throw more than nine major league innings (plus 9 five years ago) before we conclude that he's one of the best relievers in the game?
Maybe in other towns, slugger, but here in Boston we don't need more than 9 innings to judge talent.
That's...not what he said? Like, at all?
That WHIP is atrocious. FIP and xFIP must be considerably higher than 3.88
To face who????
Maybe not as critical, but I'll toss out there that Pomeranz has a career split where he's holding LHH to a .615 OPS (vs .744 to RHHs) and has drastically better numbers as a reliever than a starter, albeit in only 64 innings.
Kelly's reverse split this year is exceedingly unlikely to be predictive. Not only is that a minuscule 87 PAs, but his repertoire (58% fastball, 17% slider, 16% curve, 9% changeup) and low 3/4 arm slot don't exactly scream "huge reverse split."
I'm not seeing anyone on that list that screams "need a LOOGY" to neutralize. Alonso and Brantley are really the only ones who are significantly worse against LHP. Lefties only seem to suppress Gregorius and Gardner's power, otherwise they hit LHP fine. The rest have hit lefties better than righties this year.
Good list, I wouldn’t discount the A’s as a playoff opponent. Matt Olsen is a solid LHH.
The A's have been playing really good baseball and are really underrated. I think everyone just checked out when it looked like Bos, NY, Cle, Hou and Sea were playoff locks.
Anybody who assumed Sea as a playoff team with their unsustainable record given their run differential wasn't paying attention. They were overdue for some hard regression.
