Jacksonity......or the Knick thread

PedroKsBambino

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It's an organization that isn't really a contender and is confused about that---their offseason screams "we're close" while their roster screams "we're not close"
 
The one possibility that is a little bit sympathetic is they are really worried about Carmelo bolting and thus do not want to take a step back until they get past his opt-out. 
 

Grin&MartyBarret

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PedroKsBambino said:
It's an organization that isn't really a contender and is confused about that---their offseason screams "we're close" while their roster screams "we're not close"
 
The one possibility that is a little bit sympathetic is they are really worried about Carmelo bolting and thus do not want to take a step back until they get past his opt-out. 
They've actually arranged it so that Chandler, Amare, Bargnani and Carmelo all expire simultaneously. Of that group, I'd guess Melo is the only one they look to bring back. So the idea of taking a step back isn't really relevant; the re-build happens in 2015, regardless of what happens on the court between now and then.
 

jon abbey

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Actually Melo can opt out next summer if he wants, a year before his and all those other huge deals expire. 
 

jon abbey

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Also to play devil's advocate, I think you could argue that NY is a contender if all breaks right for them, very little of which did last season and they still ended up two games from the Conference Finals where they would have had to beat two teams they went a combined 5-1 in the regular season against (3-1 against MIA, 2-0 against SA). If Tyson Chandler plays like the dominant force he was in the 2011 Finals and the 2012 DPOY, things could have been interesting. If that guy is gone forever, then I agree that they're definitely fooling themselves, although the franchise has doubled in value (from $550M to $1.1B) in the last seven years while they've been doing so:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kurtbadenhausen/2013/07/15/values-of-cowboys-dodgers-and-knicks-soar-despite-playoff-failures/
 
And also as G&MB says, they are heading for a total cap reset in two years, not that I am optimistic that will end up well either. 
 

PedroKsBambino

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jon abbey said:
Also to play devil's advocate, I think you could argue that NY is a contender if all breaks right for them, very little of which did last season and they still ended up two games from the Conference Finals where they would have had to beat two teams they went a combined 5-1 in the regular season against (3-1 against MIA, 2-0 against SA). If Tyson Chandler plays like the dominant force he was in the 2011 Finals and the 2012 DPOY, things could have been interesting. If that guy is gone forever, then I agree that they're definitely fooling themselves, although the franchise has doubled in value (from $550M to $1.1B) in the last seven years while they've been doing so:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kurtbadenhausen/2013/07/15/values-of-cowboys-dodgers-and-knicks-soar-despite-playoff-failures/
 
And also as G&MB says, they are heading for a total cap reset in two years, not that I am optimistic that will end up well either. 
 
We've had this discussion; I think on balance most things broke their way in the regular season (Carmelo was spectacular, they got way more than can realistically be expected from Smith, they got a nice boost from Shumpert that may or may not be real, they got good bit-player contributions, and they got from Amare what he appears capable of while generally being available to play), and they did exactly what should have been expected in the post-season--which is to say, they were in fact closer to losing in first round (to a team missing its best player) than winning in second round.

You are asking Chandler to be more than he ever was in your projection--he's a great defensive center who is older and more limited than the impact I think you are suggesting.  
 
We will see what happens; I have read (and cited along the way) a number of NBA analysts who have pretty much the same take on the Knicks right now, and I know you have a very different one.  That's why they play the games; we'll see what happens.
 
No question the franchise value is up; in terms of the reset, I think the huge question there is whether Carmelo wants to stay---I believe he does, in which case the cap room later will be interesting.  If he wants to go, the team is really just starting over.
 

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jon abbey said:
Also to play devil's advocate, I think you could argue that NY is a contender if all breaks right for them, very little of which did last season and they still ended up two games from the Conference Finals where they would have had to beat two teams they went a combined 5-1 in the regular season against (3-1 against MIA, 2-0 against SA). If Tyson Chandler plays like the dominant force he was in the 2011 Finals and the 2012 DPOY, things could have been interesting. If that guy is gone forever, then I agree that they're definitely fooling themselves, although the franchise has doubled in value (from $550M to $1.1B) in the last seven years while they've been doing so:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kurtbadenhausen/2013/07/15/values-of-cowboys-dodgers-and-knicks-soar-despite-playoff-failures/
 
And also as G&MB says, they are heading for a total cap reset in two years, not that I am optimistic that will end up well either. 
 
what?  That run near the end of the season where they went on a sustained tear shooting lights out from deep and winning a ton of games is the definition of things breaking their way.  They played way over their talent level to finish out the season.
 

cromulence

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86spike said:
what?  That run near the end of the season where they went on a sustained tear shooting lights out from deep and winning a ton of games is the definition of things breaking their way.  They played way over their talent level to finish out the season.
What? They were utterly destroyed by injuries (including Chandler, for some reason everyone pretends he was healthy) and ended up with practically no bigs against Indiana. I wouldn't call that "breaking their way". Then Carmelo gets hurt in the playoffs by some old dirty piece of shit. Talk about hot shooting all you want, you have to be biased to think the Knicks got lucky last year. I mean, shit, they were playing Earl Barron at the end of the season.
 

bowiac

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cromulence said:
What? They were utterly destroyed by injuries (including Chandler, for some reason everyone pretends he was healthy) and ended up with practically no bigs against Indiana. I wouldn't call that "breaking their way". Then Carmelo gets hurt in the playoffs by some old dirty piece of shit. Talk about hot shooting all you want, you have to be biased to think the Knicks got lucky last year. I mean, shit, they were playing Earl Barron at the end of the season.
There's a regular season/postseason divide here. They were banged up in the playoffs (with Chandler clearly not all there). On the other hand, it seems somewhat clear to me that they played above their talent level in the regular season. They were probably a 3/4/5 seed on talent (below the Heat and Pacers and a tossup with Brooklyn and the Bulls) who got lucky to get a 2 seed. On the other hand, they had a lot of injuries by the time they got there.
 
Is coming within 2 games of the conference finals being a contender? That's being a top 8 team effectively, which is a somewhat generous understanding of the term "contender" in the NBA. 
 

jon abbey

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PedroKsBambino said:
You are asking Chandler to be more than he ever was in your projection--he's a great defensive center who is older and more limited than the impact I think you are suggesting.  
 
He was the second best player in the Finals in 2011 and the DPOY in 2012, I'm actually just asking him to get back to that, although I agree it's unlikely. 
 
PedroKsBambino said:
We will see what happens; I have read (and cited along the way) a number of NBA analysts who have pretty much the same take on the Knicks right now, and I know you have a very different one.  That's why they play the games; we'll see what happens.
 
I have pretty much the same one actually, this is a first round team in all likelihood. I don't agree that means they should be immediately rebuilding, though, but you guys have had that discussion ad nauseum for years in Celtics threads.
 
PedroKsBambino said:
No question the franchise value is up; in terms of the reset, I think the huge question there is whether Carmelo wants to stay---I believe he does, in which case the cap room later will be interesting.  If he wants to go, the team is really just starting over.
 
Yep, that's true also. 
 

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jon abbey said:
He was the second best player in the Finals in 2011 and the DPOY in 2012, I'm actually just asking him to get back to that, although I agree it's unlikely. 
 
You are asking for more, though.  "Second best player in the finals" is probably overstating it, and also takes a few-game sample and suggests it applies over 82.  He has never been, nor likely ever will be, the 'second best player' even on his own team for a full season---that's why it is a stretch.
 
What he was in 2012 (or a year or two before) is exactly what I described---a very good defensive player and rebounder who was competent as a finisher.  That's a great asset, but it's not the difference between the Knicks competing with Miami and not.  It's not even clear to me it would have changed the Indy series much (just my take watching it---some may feel Chandler would have been so impactful that it would have changed outcome there, I think that's a real stretch)
 
Agree with Bowiac on both parts of his last post---the regular season was an overachievement, the post-season they had injuries, and they are a 'contender' only in a very loose definition of the term.
 

jon abbey

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PedroKsBambino said:
What he was in 2012 (or a year or two before) is exactly what I described---a very good defensive player and rebounder who was competent as a finisher.  That's a great asset, but it's not the difference between the Knicks competing with Miami and not.  It's not even clear to me it would have changed the Indy series much.
 
Well, then that's just wrong. He was a shell of himself in the playoffs last year for whatever reason and is only 30 years old (admittedly with a lot of miles on him), you're acting like he's definitely washed up, and I don't think that's the case (although it might be). No one even expected Hibbert to win the matchup with Chandler head to head going into that series last year, let alone dominate him on both ends. 
 

bowiac

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PedroKsBambino said:
You are asking for more, though.  "Second best player in the finals" is probably overstating it, and also takes a few-game sample and suggests it applies over 82.  He has never been, nor likely ever will be, the 'second best player' even on his own team for a full season---that's why it is a stretch.
Who was the 2nd best player on the Knicks in 2011-2012?
 
He was also more than "competent" as a finisher. He didn't have much in the way of ability to do anything but finish, but he was among the best finishers in the NBA. He holds the NBA record in shooting efficiency for a reason - when he found the ball within 3 feet of the rim, he got it in.
 

jon abbey

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PedroKsBambino said:
You are asking for more, though.  "Second best player in the finals" is probably overstating it, and also takes a few-game sample and suggests it applies over 82.  He has never been, nor likely ever will be, the 'second best player' even on his own team for a full season---that's why it is a stretch.
 
And wait, what are you going by here? I personally think almost all publicly available NBA stats are close to worthless but according to WS/48 Chandler was the best Knick in both of the last two seasons. Maybe you're using PER (where he was the third best Knick each of the last two seasons, behind Melo and part-timers in Lin and Amare respectively), but that doesn't include D at all. 
 
Again, I don't think what you and I are saying is especially different here overall. 
 
Edit: crosspost with bowiac, similar points, although his finishing is wildly overrated by some since he has zero post game and can be entirely shut down by a top center like Asik or Noah (a major reason why CHI/HOU went 6-0 against NY last year). It would be OK if it was really true that "when he found the ball within 3 feet of the rim, he got it in.", but unfortunately that was only the case if he was unguarded. If he was guarded, even with really deep position, he generally didn't even consider trying to score and instead passed it out, super frustrating. But I am almost solely talking about his D above.
 

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jon abbey said:
Well, then that's just wrong. He was a shell of himself in the playoffs last year for whatever reason and is only 30 years old (admittedly with a lot of miles on him), you're acting like he's definitely washed up, and I don't think that's the case (although it might be). No one even expected Hibbert to win the matchup with Chandler head to head going into that series last year, let alone dominate him on both ends. 
 
I am not acting like he's washed up, nor have I said anything like that.  I am glad you are sure you know what would have happened with a healthy Chandler; I do not think it is credible to say so in absolute terms. I believe that Hibbert is a much better player at this point in their careers, and that what likely would have changed if Chandler is healthy is that some of Hibbert's scoring opps would have gone elsewhere. That likely results in less efficiency for the Pacers, but I am not certain how much it would have changed the outcome since the Pacers had other strong matchups, too.  So I'm not going to project the impact from that you are.  You likely see a bigger change, so be it.
 
Chandler has almost no post game and has no mid-range game.  If Bowiac's point is 'he dunks well when open' sure, but I think there is more to being an NBA inside player (and a finisher) than that.
 
I think Bowiac's question about the 2011-12 Knicks and Chandler is reasonable---he may well have been the second best guy on the 2012 Knicks---though that's a pretty strange roster and so I'm not sure whether it's more an endorsement or an illustration of his limits.  My intent was to say Chandler has never been the second best guy on a good team, which certainly stands.  He's not a guy you build around, he's a valuable supporting player.  Nothing wrong with that, but also (to me) not a reason to suggest he changes the overall equation for last year's Knicks team.  If Rondo and Chandler are both healthy I don't think they get out of the first round, so one has to assess health in both directions
 

bowiac

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jon abbey said:
Edit: crosspost with bowiac, similar points, although his finishing is wildly overrated since he has zero post game and can be entirely shut down by a top center like Asik or Noah (a major reason why CHI/HOU went 6-0 against NY last year).
I agree it's overrated by something like win shares, but it also holds real value. Shooting 76% at the rim on 4.7 shots per game (Chandler's % from 2011-2012) is a real edge over doing what someone like Hibbert did this year (54%). That's more than a point per game, which represents an average increase in team winning percentage of about 4% (or about 3 games over the course of a season).
 
It'd be great if Chandler had a post game, but the difference between being "competent" at the rim and being truly excellent has real value as well. I think a lot of times, people blend those two together.
 

Grin&MartyBarret

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PedroKsBambino said:
I am not acting like he's washed up, nor have I said anything like that.  I am glad you are sure you know what would have happened with a healthy Chandler; I do not think it is credible to say so in absolute terms. I believe that Hibbert is a much better player at this point in their careers, and that what likely would have changed if Chandler is healthy is that some of Hibbert's scoring opps would have gone elsewhere. That likely results in less efficiency for the Pacers, but I am not certain how much it would have changed the outcome since the Pacers had other strong matchups, too.  So I'm not going to project the impact from that you are.  You likely see a bigger change, so be it.
 
Chandler has almost no post game and has no mid-range game.  If Bowiac's point is 'he dunks well when open' sure, but I think there is more to being an NBA inside player (and a finisher) than that.
 
I think Bowiac's question about the 2011-12 Knicks and Chandler is reasonable---he may well have been the second best guy on the 2012 Knicks---though that's a pretty strange roster and so I'm not sure whether it's more an endorsement or an illustration of his limits.  My intent was to say Chandler has never been the second best guy on a good team, which certainly stands.  He's not a guy you build around, he's a valuable supporting player.  Nothing wrong with that, but also (to me) not a reason to suggest he changes the overall equation for last year's Knicks team.  If Rondo and Chandler are both healthy I don't think they get out of the first round, so one has to assess health in both directions
 
Who was the second best player on the 2010-2011 Mavs championship team?
 

PedroKsBambino

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Grin&MartyBarret said:
Who was the second best player on the 2010-2011 Mavs championship team?
 
I think it was probably Kidd, though I know advanced stats don't agree.  I hear the case for Chandler, I just don't think it is so.   I think that was a team that had relatively uniquely five very good guys who each played pretty much unique roles supporting Dirk (Kidd, Chandler, Terry, Butler, and Marion).  Maybe you could take either wing away.
 

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The problem for Knicks fans is that you can't realistically expect 2013-2014 Chandler to look like 2010-2011 Chandler. Physically, he looked like a completely different player. He was dealing with some injuries last year so I could see some bounceback but the bottom line is that Carmelo has proven for a decade that he can't be the alpha dog on a title team and it doesn't seem like he has nearly enough help. The Knicks will easily make the playoffs next year because the Eastern Conference is so bad but I don't view them as a real contender. If they had Amare/Chandler from a couple of years ago, sure, but they don't.
 
Melo has proven for a decade that he can't be an alpha dog on a title team?
I think he did everything to show he can be exactly that before he got hurt in the playoffs, between his injury, Chandler's, Smiths puke job and Kidd's no show etc that team was masssssssively outgunned vs the pacers. Plus it was a horrible matchup of the best 3 point defending team vs a team that lives and dies by the 3 point shot (esp with the injuries)
I am not sure where that comes from, surround melo with a good tema and it seems very plauisble he can compete as the alpha dog. Just that he's not as good as Lebron, Durant etc doesn't mean he's not in the top 5-10 of that type.
 
The issue of course is that the knicks are doing a horrible job of building a team around him.
 

LondonSox

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Sorry about my typos in that previous post.
That's a very different comment from saying Melo as proved he can't be an alpha dog.
You're saying the knicks are shit, overall or in getting the right talent around him, which I can't and won't argue with.
I think put him on the pacers or frankly most teams and he's a very capable alpha dog, and capable of going very deep in the playoffs with him as such. His playoff record sucks sure, and you can question if he's capable of winning as the best player on the team.
I would say yes, but don't hold your breath. I think last year's regular season showed he absolutely can be the alpha dog on a very good team.
 
Saying the knicks aren't going to win a title is not the same as saying Melo can't win a title
 

jon abbey

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Of course Melo didn't leave them many options by forcing a trade under the old CBA (so he got more money) instead of waiting for free agency and allowing NY to keep all of the assets they gave up for him. 
 

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BigSoxFan said:
Plausible? Sure. Likely? Don't think so. I guess we'll never know the answer to this because the Knicks will never be able to surround him with another legit all-star scorer while he's still in his prime. They hoped it would be Amare, and he was good for a year, but he's now toast. Carmelo needs his KG, Wade/Bosh, etc. and isn't likely to get it in NYC. I could easily see him leaving for greener pastures in a year.
 
The path to getting his KG, Wade/Bosh is just as clear in New York as it is elsewhere. He doesn't pick up his option in 2014, they renegotiate a max deal, and the following year Chandler, Amare, and Bargnani are all expiring deals to either use as trade chips or let turn into cap space for a free agent class that includes Rondo, Danny Green, LaMarcus Aldrigde, Paul Millsap, and Marc Gasol. Do I think the Knicks will blow that somehow and end up spending their cap space on Carlos Boozer and whoever wins the dunk contest the year before? Of course I do. But I also think that Carmelo's the sort of guy who's gonna take more money from the Knicks to be the alpha-dog, rather than going to LA to play second fiddle to LeBron or whoever.  
 

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I don't think Carmelo Anthony can win a title, either.
 
That tends to happen when you're in the same draft class as Lebron James.
 

jon abbey

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Chandler/Kenyon Martin/Jeremy Tyler
Melo/Amare/Bargnani
Artest/Leslie
Shumpert/JR Smith/Tim Hardaway Jr.
Felton/Prigioni/Udrih

Tyler and Leslie's deals I don't think are guaranteed until some point in the season, but including them, they have 14 guys now under contract, one spot left.
 

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Grin&MartyBarret said:
 
Definitely a very good signing. Best of the off-season, in my opinion.
 
He can give you minutes off the bench and not kill you but this is far from an impact signing. Udrih isn't a very good shooter, isn't a great distributor, not very athletic, and an ordinary at best defender. I'd go along with this being a very ordinary signing at best for a guy who can give you some backup PG minutes.
 

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HomeRunBaker said:
 
He can give you minutes off the bench and not kill you but this is far from an impact signing. Udrih isn't a very good shooter, isn't a great distributor, not very athletic, and an ordinary at best defender. I'd go along with this being a very ordinary signing at best for a guy who can give you some backup PG minutes.
 
Did you not see the rest of their off-season?
 

jon abbey

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From what I've read and the little I've seen him in recent years, he is a good penetrator, poor defender, and he shot 43.3 percent on spotup 3s last year (via Synergy). Woodson likes to play two PGs at once and now he has three to choose from instead of two. Considering the other guys rumored for this spot (the latest was Chris Duhon, yikes), very happy with this addition. 
 

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Grin&MartyBarret said:
 
Did you not see the rest of their off-season?
 
Lol, yes very true. I suppose Knicks fans getting excited about a marginal 15-18 mpg backup PG speaks volumes as to where they are right now.
 

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That's enough, I'm out. I am a marginal NBA fan that ended up a Knicks fan as I lived in NYC and supported the sox and the eagles so I thought may as well have A new York team I could go see. Plus the Knicks were no glory hunter pick.

Supporting them even marginally has just been an largely masochistic experience. I get plenty of that from the Newcastle experience.

Fuck the Knicks, no doubt Isiah will be back soon, and the rumours of that in the past took me to the ledge. This move is close enough.
It's the worst run franchise, high spending and constantly mediocre to terrible.

I'm out. Good luck to the fans who deserve better and have real links that prevent them from walking away. I have NEVER walked away from a team before but I can't think of a single reason to continue supporting them other than being stubborn.

As for the nets good luck with that aging disaster.
 

jon abbey

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Chris Smith makes NY's roster as their 15th man, despite being nowhere near a NBA level player. So why is he on the team? Because CAA runs the Knicks and he is JR Smith's little brother (or 1/2 Pipe, as some have labelled him). 
 

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Woodson's been butchering this team's rotations. I understand the need to try and fit Bargnani and World Peace into the mix, but doing so has resulted in too many long stretches of Carmelo at the 3, and Prigioni on the bench. All of the Knicks success last year came with Carmelo at the 4 and 3 guards on the floor. That they've gotten away from that and are 1-3 is not surprising. If he doesn't figure these rotations out soon, he's going to find himself without a job pretty soon.
 
Edit: It's also worth mentioning that with Chandler now out 4-6 weeks, the minutes at the 5 basically have to go to Kenyon Martin because a Bargnani-Melo frontcourt would be historically bad defensively. However, because Chris Smith was given a roster spot over Jeremy Tyler, it's inevitable that Bargnani will end up playing a fair amount over the next 4-6 weeks. This was a poorly constructed roster with far too many overlapping parts, and that's about to become very apparent.
 

jon abbey

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Zach Lowe with a good piece on the state of the Nix:

http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/81509/tyson-knocked-out-what-the-big-mans-injury-means-for-the-knicks
 
It should be noted that even Chandler's injury was arguably the fault of the toxic cancer named Andrea Bargnani, as his putrid defensive positioning ended up with him tripping Kemba Walker into Chandler's leg. 

(It also should be noted on the Chris Smith/Jeremy Tyler silliness that Tyler was hurt going into the season, and they may very well make that move anyway once he is healthy. they just got his rights a few days ago, before the Chandler injury even.)
 

jon abbey

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Bargnani with 5 blocks somehow in the first game without Chandler, he'd only done that four times before in his career and not since Jan 2010. Just Charlotte, but at least Knicks fans will be a little slower to boo him now. 
 
This team is not easy to watch though even when they're going well. With Melo, Bargnani and JR Smith coming back on Sunday, they will have a chance to break the alltime record in shots attempted one step inside the three point line with plenty of time left on the shot clock, better known as the dumbest shot in basketball. Over and over and over...
 

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Apparently the rumors of a Shumpert-Faried deal were more than just speculation. Daily News is reporting that there are actual talks.
 
In a vacuum, I do prefer Faried to Shumpert, though not my much. But I can't really see how this solves the Knicks rotational issues. I can't shake the feeling that whoever is making decisions in the Knicks front office these days doesn't realize Carmelo is a 4.
 
Edit: Actually, I don't think I do like Faried more. And certainly not for this team. The more I think about it, the more of a mistake this seems.
 

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Why is Faried on the block? He's cost controlled through 2015 (as is Shumpert). But assuming for whatever reason the Nuggets want to dump Faried, I expect they could get a lot more, including a team willing to take back some Denver salary in exchange for expirings or to relinquish picks. I like Shumpert, but I would be shocked if the "Manimal" did not have considerably more value around the league.
 

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The Knicks are desperate for bodies at the 4/5 at the moment with everyone injured. And I think the fact that Faried is going to get paid is why Denver is OK with moving him. Shumpert is a lockdown defender at the 2 spot and a competent offensive player, those guys get over-MLE money. Guys with gaudy rebounding numbers end up averaging eight figures a year.