Playoff Rotation

[luckysox]

Hmm. If Britton's guess is right, maybe they want to use EdRo in the same way they're using Price, and think his stuff will play up better than Porcello's or Fister's in a one time through the order situation? If they do this, though, I think they may need to split up Sale and Pomeranz to give Price, EdRo, Reed and Kimbrel the best chance at not being overused, but somehow still sharing the bulk of the bullpen workload. Maybe Sale, Porcello (yikes, but he should start on the road if anywhere), Pomeranz, Fister. You hope Sale goes 7 innings with a lead, and Reed and Kimbrel finish it off. Then you hope Porcello can go 3 or 4 innings and give up just 1 or 2 runs, followed by EdRo and/or Price for a couple each. That gets you to the back end pretty nicely if you have a lead or are in a close game. Then everyone resets with an off day. Pomeranz goes at home in game 3, and you can follow him with really anyone - so Price and EdRo again for an inning, then Reed and Kimbrel. Game 4, if necessary and you have there 2-1 lead, you beg God for good Fister, and pull him for basically the same deal as the day before, hoping to be close after 3-5 innings. If you're down 2-1, I think Chris Sale gets the ball and everyone is on deck except Pomeranz, who'd get the ball in game 5.

I'm nervous.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

If this is the way it goes, it won't surprise me at all. EdRo's stuff should play up great in the bullpen.

 

[joe dokes]

All 3 are crapshoots in different ways.

 

[The Gray Eagle]

If we win game 1, then Porcello starting game 2 wouldn't be too bad. he would be pitching on the road, where he has been better, and no matter what, we head home with Pomeranz ready for game 3 and Sale for game 5 if it goes that far.

If we lose game 1 though, I really wouldn't want Porcello starting game 2.

If we're down 0-1, I would go with Pomeranz. But then you get Porcello and Fister pitching the next 2, with the best case scenario that you are tied 1 game each, but possibly down 0-2? Not great.

 

[AB in DC]

Yall are putting way, way too much credence into this whole "Porcello is better on the road" thing. That may have been true for the 2017 regular season, but the opposite was true for both 2015 and 2016. We're talkinga bout maybe 15 road starts this year, total, which is the epitome of SSS. There is absolutely no reason to believe that the home/road splits are in any way predictive of future performance.

 

[joe dokes]

If we win game 1, then Porcello starting game 2 wouldn't be too bad. he would be pitching on the road, where he has been better, and no matter what, we head home with Pomeranz ready for game 3 and Sale for game 5 if it goes that far.
If we lose game 1 though, I really wouldn't want Porcello starting game 2.
If we're down 0-1, I would go with Pomeranz. But then you get Porcello and Fister pitching the next 2, with the best case scenario that you are tied 1 game each, but possibly down 0-2? Not great.

Pomeranz is getting game 2.
https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2017/10/03/drew-pomeranz-start-game-playoffs-for-red-sox/XYsIRpyya5XuROpte84ZqJ/story.html

Dont overthink this. He's the the best not-Sale starter by a wide margin.

 

[Pozo the Clown]

Big Smooth to start Game 2.

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/257268018/red-soxs-drew-pomeranz-to-start-alds-game-2/

 

[KillerBs]

If Pomeranz goes game 2 and Edro goes to the pen, does this mean Porcello and Fister each get a start? Could make for glum weekend. Or are they seriously thinking about Sale and Pomeranz each going with 3 days rest? And if we are going with only 11 pitchers, which I read here, and keep both Porcello and Fister, that leaves Barnes (and Hembree, Workman, Maddox and Scott) off the roster (in lieu of Fister). Is Fister a better pitcher? Not really seeing it.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

If Pomeranz goes game 2 and Edro goes to the pen, does this mean Porcello and Fister each get a start? Could make for glum weekend. Or are they seriously thinking about Sale and Pomeranz each going with 3 days rest? And if we are going with only 11 pitchers, which I read here, and keep both Porcello and Fister, that leaves Barnes (and Hembree, Workman, Maddox and Scott) off the roster (in lieu of Fister). Is Fister a better pitcher? Not really seeing it.

Only Sale would be starting on 3 days rest. Thanks to the off-days (after Games 2 and 4), Pomeranz can pitch Game 2 and come back for Game 5 on regular rest.

And if there's a rain-out on Sunday, which is unlikely but apparently a possibility according to forecasts, then Sale and Pomeranz can pitch 4 and 5 on regular rest.

 

[KillerBs]

Only Sale would be starting on 3 days rest. Thanks to the off-days (after Games 2 and 4), Pomeranz can pitch Game 2 and come back for Game 5 on regular rest.

And if there's a rain-out on Sunday, which is unlikely but apparently a possibility according to forecasts, then Sale and Pomeranz can pitch 4 and 5 on regular rest.

Oh. Missed the bit about the off day between games 4 and 5. That changes everything. Turns out Sox mgt may have better handle on this than me.

 

[Al Zarilla]

I'm nervous.

The expectations for the Sox are not high, so I'm not nervous. Yet. Big yet.

 

[chrisfont9]

If this is the way it goes, it won't surprise me at all. EdRo's stuff should play up great in the bullpen.

In his ML career he had one inning, this April, of relief work. On the plus side, he wiped out the Jays with 2Ks in a clean inning. Close to zero evidence but at least the one bit there is is quite positive. Fully 5 swinging strikes vs Morales, Tulo and Martin.

 

[Dewey'sCannon]

For a Porcello or Fister start, I would have the bullpen ready to go from the start. Maybe not literally have someone throwing when the game starts (as this might undermine confidence) but know who you're going to - someone who can get ready fast, and can come in with men on base if necessary to get you out of an early jam. And have that guy pre-loosened a bit pre-game. Not sure who might best fit that bill - I assume Price needs a bit more warm-up that most relievers. Reed? Kelley?

 

[luckysox]

if a guy like Porcello knows that he is getting yanked if he lets in even a few runs, can you convince him to throw like a reliever right out of the gate? Meaning, the plan from the get go, as a team, as a pitching staff, is to have starters outside of Sale and Pomeranz go out and pitch like they only have two times through the order because that's all they have. Would the uptick in velocity and the change in how you could work a guy not having to worry about a 3rd ab against him in the 5th inning be worth the trade off of changing their "normal" routine? if you get Porcello and Fister on board after game 2, you could almost just plot it out:
Game 3 - Porcello 3 innings
Price 2 innings
Kelly 1 inning
Smith 1 inning
Reed 1 inning
Kimbrel 1 inning

And do a similar thing with Fister and EdRo for game 4, depending on the status of the series. I really do think we see Sale if we're down 2-1 for game 4.

Is it insane to try to micro-manage a game this way, no matter the outcome of a certain inning (unless someone completely poops the bed? - and what would completely pooping the bed be for each pitcher?)

 

[luckysox]

The playoffs are so cool from a pitching perspective, because you can do things you just would never try during the long 162 game season. The Andrew Miller effect is very interesting.

 

[Unin10D]

The expectations for the Sox are not high, so I'm not nervous. Yet. Big yet.

This. I'll be pleasantly surprised if they make the ALDS competitive. I know there are numbers and stats showing that they can, but I'm not sure that they will. In 2004, 07, 08, and 13 I was expecting a pennant and hoping for a WS. This year I'm going in with lessened expectations...but still hope

 

[RedOctober3829]

This. I'll be pleasantly surprised if they make the ALDS competitive. I know there are numbers and stats showing that they can, but I'm not sure that they will. In 2004, 07, 08, and 13 I was expecting a pennant and hoping for a WS. This year I'm going in with lessened expectations...but still hope

It all hinges on Game 1 in a 5 game series and the Sox have the best starting pitcher on either team. If Sale comes out and does his job and the Sox win Game 1, they are in the drivers seat. Remember, the Astros staff falls off after Keuchel just like the Sox does after Pomeranz. If Games 3-5 are bullpen games, advantage Sox.