The thing is he also spent very significant money on the pass-catching position in free agency. Sure, it mostly did not work out, but it’s not like he didn’t spend significant resources trying to fix the problem. Draft/free agency go hand in hand, neither tells the story on its own.
This is now: BB and the direction of the Patriots
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This completely ignores context and roster construction those years. In FA, the WR position was addressed and with considerable cost. It didn't work out all that well, but it was addressed. Also, you are talking 4th round and later when hit rates are incredibly low.
Needless to say, I get that. I’m not ignoring our 2021 FA WR binge.
But we have also been talking about the value of taking many “bites at the apple”.
We kept on drafting CBs even though we were stocked at that spot. Meanwhile we haven’t drafted a TE since 2020.
Bill clearly has positions he prioritizes in the draft, and others he clearly does not. Meanwhile the offense has gone to shit. So perhaps he needs to rethink those priorities? That’s my point.
What we’re doing isn’t working, clearly. There were circumstances and reasons and context and all that. But the outcomes have stunk.
I want Bill back. But I also think we need to change our approach.
Oh I agree, I was just noting that people always talk about the lack of WRs early for a couple stretches. But in those stretches he was trading picks for WRs, which made a lot of sense for a perennial SB contender.
This keeps being repeated. Yes, it's true, the hit rates are low, but the impact of hitting one of these picks is so high. They're not expendable in the way that people are talking about them. If they were, why aren't the Patriots trading them every year to move up in earlier rounds?
@BaseballJones has done posts that show many Ks are Ps are not actually drafted, and some of the best Ks are UDFAs. The same can't be said for any other position on offense or defense. I went through the top 32 kickers this year, and 20 of them were undrafted. What other positions can you find nearly 2/3 of the starters on the street?
Is it the biggest deal on earth that these mid-to-late round picks were spent on S/T? No, it's not, but it's emblematic of why we have 80 page threads about the future of this franchise and the decision-making that we've seen in recent years. For years, the talk was how the Patriots win on the margins, but now we're saying margins don't matter?
Your lost point is making my point.
They were taking shots at defense early in the drafts, and not really taking shots on offense, and then still taking additional shots on defense and special teams at the end of the draft. In addition to the 10 special teams/defensive guys they've taken that I noted above after round 3, they also went DB, DL, LB with their first 3 picks in 2023, in 2022, they went Strange and Thornton with their first two, and apparently thought that was enough pass catching help, and didn't get another offensive lineman until round 6. In 2021, after Mac, then they went DL and DE and took one pass catcher (Tre Nixon) in round 7. In 2020, they took a safety and two linebackers, and again, never took a wide receiver (although they went back to back on tight ends, who have a total of 7 NFL catches).
By the way, those tight end misses in 2020 really don't get talked about enough around here. Those two picks were so fucking wretched. No other tight end in the draft that went after them has less catches for their career than Keene/Asiasi combined and a bunch of them were considered busts too. Fuck, guys like Adam Trautman who went after them have like 90 NFL catches.
You make a great point about the backs. There was nearly an unbroken string of quality pass catching RB/FB going all the back to the first season:
Kevin Faulk
Marc Edwards
Patrick Pass
Larry Centers
Danny Woodhead
Shane Vereen
Brandon Bolden
James White
Dion Lewis
Rex Burkhead
Cordarelle Patterson
Rhamondre Stevenson
Zeke
Arguably a lot of their problems the last two years has been the lack of a dedicated 3rd down back, forcing the no.1 backs to do double duty. The backs on the 2017 team caught 126 passes!
Jake Bailey absolutely was not a flop. In fact, part of the problem was that he was too *good* in his first couple of years because by making the Pro Bowl he got a significant bump in pay, taking him from being a cheap rookie to one of the higher paid punters (the formula really fucks teams who have kickers make the pro bowl as rookies).
In 2020 Bailey had one of the best seasons Puntalytics have measured
In 2021 he was good to very good
View: https://twitter.com/ThePuntRunts/status/1480541812867612676
And then in 2022 he got hurt/fell off a cliff/was terrible/had whatever the bustup was regarding his rehab. Combined with now being expensive, that all got him cut. But prior to that year he was a stunning success.
To put the value of a 4th round pick in some kind of context - by the Fitzgerald-Spielberger Trade Value Chart Ryland's pick last year (112th) was valued at 609 points. This year the Pats have a total of 6295 points, and the teams range from 9615 (Cardinals) to 3416 (Browns). So that pick was worth about 10% of our total draft this year and (eyeballing) about 12% of an average team's draft.
Yes. Moss was here 3 seasons, Cooks 1. Welker was a slot receiver who occasionally stretched the field. Branch had 2.5 seasons after coming back, most of which were forgettable. So... yes. That is why I asked because I have no idea who you are referring to.
This is really rough.
Bill can still coach, but the ‘try hard’ observations ring really hollow. Every team is basically playing hard, they are all individual contractors, and his left tackle and top corners all went AWOL down the stretch.
Appreciate the breakdown @NobodyInteresting, and I’m glad he was a good punter, but someone needs to take the personnel keys away.
In one of these threads I went through kickers drafted in the 3rd-5th round since Roberto Aguayo and the hit rate for the team drafting the kicker was astoundingly bad. Some of them went on to have good careers but almost none of them were for the team that drafted them.
I am doing a once over now and since Sebastian Janikowski in 2000, the only kickers drafted before the 6th round that have hit for the team that drafted them are....
-Janikowski (1st Rd)
-Ghost (4th Rd)
-Nate Kaeding (2nd Rd)
Kickers who did well but not for the team that drafted them..
-Matt Gay (5th Rd. drafted by TB, sucked his rookie year and was cut)
-Daniel Carlson (5th Rd. drafted by MIN, career turned around in OAK)
-Jake Elliott (5th Rd. drafted by CIN, Eagles claimed him from practice squad his rookie year)
-Randy Bullock (5th Rd kind of the definition of a journeyman kicker but has been around a while)
Other names
-Justin Rohrwasser (5th Rd)
-Cade York (4th Rd)
-Austin Seibert (5th Rd)
-Roberto Aguayo (2nd Rd)
-Caleb Sturgis (5th Rd)
-Alex Henery (4th Rd)
-David Buehler (5th Rd)
-Justin Medlock (5th Rd)
-Bill Gramatica (4th Rd)
-John Markham (5th Rd)
-Jeff Chandler (4th Rd)
-Travis Dorsch (4th Rd)
-Josh Scobee (5th Rd)
-Mike Nugent (2nd Rd)
So 21 kickers in 22 years and 3 of them were a good investment for the team that drafted them.
This, so much this. It's not about taking Ryland. It's about using these picks on kickers and punters, when your offense CAN'T FUCKING SCORE POINTS. There have been a fuckton of hits at wide receiver, tight end since 2019 after the third round. Sure, most are not hits, but again, you can't fucking hit if you don't step up to the batter's box.
Based on field goal %:
The #1 field goal kicker in the NFL, going 29/30 on FG's (5/6 over 50) and 28/30 on EXP's was Nick Folk.
The #2 kicker, Ka'imi Fairbairn, was undrafted.
The #3 kicker was a rookie in Dallas that played professional soccer, then kicked in the CFL, went undrafted, and Dallas signed him. He went 36/38 on field goals this year.
The #4 kicker, Harrison Butker, was drafted in the 7th, 233rd overall
The #5, Cameron Dicker, undrafted
The #6, Jake Eilliott was drafted in the 5th, 153rd overall
The #7, Chase McLaughlin, was undrafted
The #8, Chris Boswell, was undrafted
The #9, Cairo Santos, was undrafted
The #10, Greg Zuerhlien, was drafted in the 6th, 171st overall
The #11, was drafted in the 6th, 177th overall
The #12, Riley Patterson, undrafted
The #13, Wil Lutz, undrafted
The #14, Daneil Carlson, drafted in the 5th (167th overall)
The #15, Justin fucking Tucker, undrafted
The #16, Youngho Koo, undrafted.
That folks, is evidence, that Bill has no fucking business drafting kickers and punters in the 4th and 5th round (if at all). Especially when even if he hits on one of them, it means we're going to lose 24-10 instead of 24-7, because our offense has no playmakers. It's also evidence that apparently, Bill and Co. suck complete ass at identifying free agent talent at the kicker position, because basically every other team does exactly that.
It's funny that we have so many discussion on SOSH that almost always ignore the elephant in the room.
The cap is difficult to understand. And there is a misimpression out there that it's not that relevant because there are always games you can play to mess with it. But that's really not a reason we should overlook it, and it mattered for Bailey. When we have question about why any particular team did or didn't do something, it really needs to start with asking about the cap, because it motivates a lot of behavior that we don't discuss.
The truth is that the Patriots have been skating exceptionally closely to the line for several years since Brady left. They are going to end this year with $20,000 in cap space. They are 32d out of 32 in cap carryover.
They have been in the position of making decisions to save $300,000. Yes, there are games that could be played, but it seems like they've been pretty content with spending to the cap -- almost exactly to the cap! -- but not significantly mortgaging their future beyond 2023. How did they get there? Well, it's complicated. Is it a legitimate point of discussion why they have a rookie QB but still have zero cap space? Of course. They got a bit of relief in 2021 with some NLTBE luck and also some settlements -- I can't remember but maybe Antonio Brown? But the low covid year fucked up everyone.
Every move that we judge has to be with the understanding that they have not had any cap space to work with and were not willing to borrow past 2023 to get it.
But the upside is that here they sit with $72 million in 2024 ($86 million when they cut Jackson). All these micro-moves that we've been discussing have been accumulating to this point. You can reset fast in the NFL, and while I never would have preferred a year like they just had, the truth is now that it's done I'm glad they saved their pennies instead of spending next year's money on things that would have maybe made them a 5 or 6 win team.
Yeah, I don't know why we're debating this. You shouldn't waste picks on kickers, and if you're going to pick a guy in rounds 4-7 (which I still don't think you should do), they need to have a monster leg and accuracy from distance, because otherwise, the kickers in the NFL at this point are generally all within the margin of error from under 50 yards. Do not draft kickers.
Or at least don't draft Chad Ryland. My God. The only kicker in the league that can't hit from the right hash. Infuriating.
All these guys were pretty discounted except Cooks - and they traded him before he got expensive. They did not invest significantly at WR basically for the whole dynasty. And I'm not being critical of that strategy-they won six Super Bowls, and also had the greatest run of sustained offensive success ever, so it only hurt them intermittently. I just disagree with your characterization.
I can't believe we're still doing the bolded at this point.
They didn't use a first-rounder on defense from Malcom Brown (2015) all the way to Gonzalez in this past draft. Yeah, there were some seconds/thirds on D, but they needed to overhaul the talent on both sides of the ball. They pulled it off on D, they messed it up on O.
Trautman is better than Keene or Asiasi, but not in a way that moves the needle at all. 200-yard/year TE are pretty fungible. That was a one-TE draft (Kmet), unfortunately.
Trent Brown has thoughts.
Trent Brown Refutes Damning Reports, Gets Candid On Patriots Issues (nesn.com)
Trent Brown Refutes Damning Reports, Gets Candid On Patriots Issues (nesn.com)
Agree that money matters, and 20k isn’t much wiggle room.
I think the real elephant though is being discussed: if you can’t make good decisions with offensive personnel then you need 35 year old Reiff, $5 million, and millions more on Calvin Anderson. Or you hemorrhage resources unsuccessfully trying to find a half decent WR for Brady.
Over 20% of the cut down day roster was bad lineman gumbo.
Yeah, I was kind of laughing at the notion people thought Trent Brown wasn't problematic. He's had this reputation for many years. The funny thing about all that is that he basically sounds like a WEEI caller himself. He might not be a bad guy, but he comes off as obsessive about the media and outside noise, which is just the antithesis of everything Belichick tries to preach.
Those are the things I say, but my phone is too caked with bean dip to dial. (Edit - sorry for rapid fire posting thought I was editing not replying - I’ll see myself out
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This makes it sounds like it's all carryover from Brady. They gave Jonnu Smith a 50 million dollar contract, Hunter Henry a 37.5 million contract, Nelson Agholar 22 million. He spent money terribly on offense. If they had spent money well, we aren't having these discussions. Nothing to do with 2019 at this point.
Several excellent decisions? Only in hindsight. Were they lauded as how you go about building an offense? Look at the decisions on face value. The fact that some of these decisions worked out didn’t make them good. Why is that hard?
I love posts like these. Once again, what should they have spent that money on? Because those were the best players available in free agency.
Would you have preferred them to sit on it?
lol this line from Trent:
Trent Brown Refutes Damning Reports, Gets Candid On Patriots Issues (nesn.com)
I won't pretend to understand his motivations, but I'm thinking "yeah, give Vederian Lowe more snaps, he's playing great" is the kind of thing a coach wants to hear from the well-paid Tackle who had just held out for more money.
Trent Brown Refutes Damning Reports, Gets Candid On Patriots Issues (nesn.com)
Doing what? It's not a knock on Brady, obviously he's the greatest player of all time, but I do think New England was not the easiest place for green, physically talented receivers to thrive.
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And to think Trent Brown shut down Aaron Donald in the Super Bowl.
He's an interesting but strange man. And clearly needs to be on a good to great team to be a positive asset.
He's an interesting but strange man. And clearly needs to be on a good to great team to be a positive asset.
He's a malcontent and a difficult guy. But, you know, in the end, I'm always going to love the guy for 2018. It's weird how things work out, but one of the single most important draft events in the last several years was McGlinchey still being on the board when the 49ers drafted in 2018. That made Brown expendable, and the Patriots got him cheaply -- both in terms of salary and draft capital. I'm not sure they win the Super Bowl without him. In fact, I'm pretty sure they don't. He played hard and got paid for it by the Raiders and later us. We might have gotten his very best in 2018.
So, yeah. He's a problem. But if I ever see him, I'm buying him a beer, if he wants one.
They didn't need to use 1sts in 2016-2018, because they had Tom Brady.
They also couldn't use 1sts on offense, because they didn't have many.
In 2016, they didn't have a first round pick, and then they took Cyrus Jones in the 2nd.
In 2017, they didn't have a first or a second round pick, and they took Derek Rivers in the 3rd.
In 2020, they didn't have a first, and went Dugger, Uche, Jennings with their first 3 picks.
Then in 2023, they went Gonzo, White Mapu in 1, 2, 3
Obviously, they went Michel/Wynn in 2018, then took Harry in 2019 and had to take Mac in 2021, and then Strange/Thornton in 2022.
That's it, those are the top of the draft offensive players they've taken since 2016, while taking a bunch of defenders with their first overall/first few picks, then filling out the back of the draft with special teamers and more defensive guys. And all of this on the heels of the GOAT walking out the door because he knew they had nobody on the roster that could do shit, so they brought in a rookie QB and gave him a pile of shit and then after last season's offensive debacle, they doubled down on defense again in this year's draft.
The post was in response to the idea that the team was terribly hamstrung by the cap and therefore made moves they otherwise wouldn't have. So yes, given the context of the posting, I guess they should have sat on some of it.
Here's a thought. Figure out that neither of the 2 tight ends you're taking in the third round are shitty, before you draft them. I'm not letting Bill off the hook for drafting back to back tight ends in the draft in the 3rd round, because it turned out there weren't any really good tight ends, especially when one of them (Asiasi) was a projected 4th rounder compared to Alge Crumpler pre-draft and the other was a projected 6th rounder
Isn't this the most tremendous indictment of this era? That four years after Brady, the team is completely capped out and still went 4-13?
The poor drafts have definitely hurt this team. In 2020 draft, you were still looking for a WR. Just missed out on Jefferson but Aiyuk was right there. Higgins and Pittman were right there in early round 2. Pass. Trade down.
In 2020, you also needed a QB and Jordan Love was sitting right there for them to develop while Cam ran the team. Pass. Trade down.
Just like in 2019, multiple guys on offense were there to be had and they chose to go in different direction. At least Dugger turned out to be a good player but 2019-2020 was marred by BB misevaluating the draft’s offensive options, which culminated in those poor FA deals.
BB’s poor draft stretch just was horribly timed.
This is problem with going too far ass over tea kettle into bowing at the alter of analysis and process. They’re important, but outcomes matter a lot. And in virtually any endeavor, positive ones usually mitigate criticism of process. Unless one is retro-fitting their argument to minimize credit being given to someone they want fired.
I'm not sure why we're going back to 2016 at this point, because they won 2 Super Bowls and went to another in that stretch, and none of those guys are on the team anymore or have any relevance to what's gone on in 2023.
Does it matter that 13% of those offensive picks were used on QB's, when you can only play one at a time? And we still don't have one?
I mean, we've taken 5 QB's since 2016, and only 7 WR's, and since 2019, we've taken 4 WR's and 2 of them were 6th rounders this season. We've taken 3 tight ends since 2016 (2 of them in one draft and Ryan Izzo in the 7th round).
We've taken more kickers and punters since 2016 than we've taken tight ends.
If folks think this is a good allocation of resources for an offense that is now historically bad as a result, I have no idea what we're talking about. And on top of that, even if you're fine with the allocation, the results are a fucking travesty.
I don't know why the Pats would be interested in Vrabel, the Titans have been awful in the last couple of years. He's hardly some young innovative coach.
It's troubling that the team had a rookie QB and still was spending to the cap, but you can never judge the cap by just one year. I mean, they could have easily done some tricks and borrow from next year.
If you heard that they ended the year with $40 million in cap space, would it make us feel better? Because they could have done, and then only had $40 million next year instead of $80 million.
So, yeah, I hear you that they have frittered away the advantage that having a rookie quarterback should bring you, but I'm also not trying to put undue emphasis on the number to end the year. They made a few questionable choices during Brady's last year and then in free agency in the next couple of years and it set them up for where we are now. But they were really disciplined about it and are now in a really nice position. They have $80 million and a top 3 pick.
You’re correct. Positive outcomes usually diminish any ills in the process. I’m simply looking at the body of work. The decision making hasn’t changed. The outcomes have. So what does one infer from that?
Where do you get 3 of 4 of those guys? Bailey got hurt and is now in Miami, but he was excellent before getting hurt. He even triggered some first contract clause that got him more money which I am sure was something Bill was not thrilled about.
He played here?
There are definitely people who think he's a good coach in the Tomlin mold of motivators over scheme guys.
My thing is... he's just worse than Belichick at all the things people don't like about Bill recently...
His defense is okay not elite, his offenses cliffed without Smith (4th under smith to 15th, to 28th to 27th one of the few teams you could say have been worse on aggregate than the Patriots on that side the last few years and Tannehill for all his faults was a better QB than Mac in terms of talent in 2021 and 2022) they played in a weak division. And the big thing... they fired their GM for him, and he immediately had conflict with the new GM too.
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