It seemed like this was the consensus of pretty much everyone here over the past year….but now that Lillard is actually available, seems to be a lot of waffling going on.
Trade for Dame?
- Thread starter kazuneko
- Start date
Semantics aside, present-day NBA teams mostly play 3 WINGs + 1 PG + 1 Center
During the season I recall looking at a list of TOP 10 - 20 PGs & WINGs. (I believe we were kicking around All-NBA candidates)
It really nailed home how valuable a 27yr old All-NBA WING is...
During the season I recall looking at a list of TOP 10 - 20 PGs & WINGs. (I believe we were kicking around All-NBA candidates)
It really nailed home how valuable a 27yr old All-NBA WING is...
Also agree, but perhaps even more reductively: it’s all predicated on the Js.
If the Js are ready (mostly JT) then there is already enough talent to hoist the Larry Obrien. Just like there was last year, forget the deck chair rearranging, the Js just weren’t ready.
I don’t want to mortgage anything at all for Dame, as they still won’t win without a the Js delivering and if they Js hit theIr ceiling think they can win anyway without him. Keep the train rolling!
I the C's get him; he's amazing. If he goes somewhere else; he's a bum!!!
I love the idea of Lillard, but the age+size really scares me, even for a 2-3 year title window.
If I were going for a small guard, I'd rather do Jaylen for Garland (assuming Cleveland thought they could re-sign Jaylen to play with Mitchell). Age/contract are great, defense has graded out better than Lillard's, still room to improve, and you open up room to match Grant for the MLE and move Brogdon + picks for quality wing help.
Know idea whether that trade is there (Cleveland would have to at least consider it), but I think it leaves you in a better spot wrt overall roster and aging curves.
Aging curves aren't everything, and flags fly forever, but having premium, not-old talent under contract for awhile gives lots of team-building options.
If I were going for a small guard, I'd rather do Jaylen for Garland (assuming Cleveland thought they could re-sign Jaylen to play with Mitchell). Age/contract are great, defense has graded out better than Lillard's, still room to improve, and you open up room to match Grant for the MLE and move Brogdon + picks for quality wing help.
Know idea whether that trade is there (Cleveland would have to at least consider it), but I think it leaves you in a better spot wrt overall roster and aging curves.
Aging curves aren't everything, and flags fly forever, but having premium, not-old talent under contract for awhile gives lots of team-building options.
I think you only go small guard if you’re getting an elite one like Lillard. I don’t have any interest in going small for a non-elite guy like Garland. Nice player but Jaylen is better. However, if Jaylen wants out, for whatever reason, and Lillard is Miami-bound, Garland would be a nice fallback option to have.
Personally, I don’t care if the addition of Porzingis unlocks a better version of Jaylen. I just want it to unlock a better version of the Boston Celtics.
Personally, I’d rather not have 32 year old Jaylen Brown at 70 million anyway, so give me the next 3-4 seasons of Dame and then the free cap space. The team is significantly better the next 2-3 seasons with Dame imo, and I’m willing to bet Jaylen would never see seasons 4-5-6 in Boston anyway. He might not even see season 1 of that extension in Boston.
This team is extremely close to a championship, do that extra to get it over the hump. I can’t take any more Jaylen turnoverfests against elite competition in the playoffs.
Ineligible for the 35% supermax (until and unless he's a free agent with 10+ years service). Still eligible for the 30% max (same as if he was a free agent).
CBA #95: "a team cannot extend a player it receives in trade for six months, if the extension exceeds the limits of an extend-and-trade" (which are, 3 year contract inclusive of any years remaining on the current one, and 5% annual raises). And likewise he can't be traded for 6 months if he gets an extension above the scope of those terms, either (which would describe any extension the Cs might give Jaylen that he might even plausibly agree to).
So a Jaylen-for-Lillard trade would be one of the following scenarios:
(1) Jaylen is traded without an extension, just on his current $30.7M expiring contract. Portland can then sign him to an extension 6 months later, for up to 30%-max for 5 years with 8% raises. However, he could then agree to very similar terms with any team 6 months later as a free agent - the only difference is that Portland, which would then hold his Bird rights, could make it a 5-year deal and all other teams could only make it 4 years.
(2) Jaylen agrees to a much smaller contract extension than anyone imagines he would find acceptable if offered by Boston. There is an argument he would agree to a 2-year extension within those extend-and-trade limits, because after that extension runs its course, he would be able (as a 10+ year veteran) to sign for a 35% max FA deal, which he couldn't otherwise until then except if it was with Boston. So he'd be betting that his long-term earnings would be optimized by betting that he will be as valuable in 2 years as he is today. Only if Brad Stevens is currently refusing to give him a deal above 30% might this come into play.
Marks thinks Boston could be the middle ground between Dame and Portland.
View: https://twitter.com/BobbyMarks42/status/1676698497137999876?s=20
I posted this in the off-season thread earlier, but the Celtics definitely seem to be very interested in Dame. First Haynes said it, now Ramona, and Marks. Just need Tatum to be able to convince him.
View: https://twitter.com/BOSSportsGordo/status/1676692840284401665?s=20
View: https://twitter.com/BOSSportsGordo/status/1676692840284401665?s=20
I don't think this is correct. I think if JB gets traded to PDX, PDX can offer him an extension that is only 140% (new CBA) of his current salary. So the 4 year extension would be around $190M. https://nesn.com/2023/04/what-nbas-new-reported-cba-could-mean-for-celtics-jaylen-brown/
He'll get more than that if he goes to free agency.
JB has almost no incentive to sign an extension with PDX, so it's not likely that PDX is going to give even close to full value for him.
Happy to be shown I'm wrong though.
I mean, what's going to sell the guy on Boston? The delectability of a North Shore roast beef? If he wouldn't even consider Boston based on winning then I'm bearish on trading for a guy who really seems like he wants fuck all to do with being here.
Well 2 things
1) Celtics in theory have a better roster than Miami. I think this is even more true once Miami has to gut to get Dame. Thus the Celtics are in theory closer to winning
2) Celtics have tatum, and we are judging his superstar reach here. Does he have that type of cache to sell Dame on the team/city/
Right now it seems to be less "I don't want to play for Boston" and more "I only want to play for Miami." It's a small difference, but probably an easier place to start from if you want to convince him the Celtics are a good option, too.
Cronin using mouthpieces? If so, impressive.
Edit: IMO, the reporter to watch is Haynes. He is Dame's guy so if there is any shot at Dame shifting his stance, its likely going to be broken by him. Absent anything like that we have to assume that Miami is still the clear frontrunner.
Edit: IMO, the reporter to watch is Haynes. He is Dame's guy so if there is any shot at Dame shifting his stance, its likely going to be broken by him. Absent anything like that we have to assume that Miami is still the clear frontrunner.
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I have absolutely no idea how we even make a trade for Damian Lillard and his $45.6M salary next year under the NBA's trade rules, without (A) trading Jaylen Brown, or (B) trading so many of our other assets that we look like the Lakers' stars-and-scrubs roster of the past couple years.
We would need to send out $36.4M in salary to get it done. Since it's now July, we're using 2023-24 salaries. Assume Tatum, Brown and White are untouchable. That's Al Horford ($10.0) + Brogdon ($22.5) + Pritchard ($4.0), barely, meaning our third rotation guard is either JD Davison or a guy we sign for the taxpayer MLE (~$7) or the minimum.
Depth:
Lillard (Davison)
White (???)
Brown (Hauser, Champagnie)
Tatum (Grant, Kabengele)
Porzingis (Timelord, Kornet)
The top 6 (with TL) look amazing. And I'm a Hauser believer. But that puts us basically right at the second apron even if we renounce Grant, nevermind signing a third and fourth guard.
2023-24 salaries:
Lillard $45.6
Porzingis $36.0
Tatum $32.6
Brown $30.7
White $18.1
R. Williams $11.8
Kornet $2.4
Hauser $1.9
= $179.1, with 2nd apron at ~$182.8. And we will probably pay Davison, Kabengele and Champagnie some dollars too.
My conclusion is, there's no way it happens (barring one of the two Jaylen scenarios above), and Boston is willingly being used to drive up the price for others.
We would need to send out $36.4M in salary to get it done. Since it's now July, we're using 2023-24 salaries. Assume Tatum, Brown and White are untouchable. That's Al Horford ($10.0) + Brogdon ($22.5) + Pritchard ($4.0), barely, meaning our third rotation guard is either JD Davison or a guy we sign for the taxpayer MLE (~$7) or the minimum.
Depth:
Lillard (Davison)
White (???)
Brown (Hauser, Champagnie)
Tatum (
Porzingis (Timelord, Kornet)
The top 6 (with TL) look amazing. And I'm a Hauser believer. But that puts us basically right at the second apron even if we renounce Grant, nevermind signing a third and fourth guard.
2023-24 salaries:
Lillard $45.6
Porzingis $36.0
Tatum $32.6
Brown $30.7
White $18.1
R. Williams $11.8
Kornet $2.4
Hauser $1.9
= $179.1, with 2nd apron at ~$182.8. And we will probably pay Davison, Kabengele and Champagnie some dollars too.
My conclusion is, there's no way it happens (barring one of the two Jaylen scenarios above), and Boston is willingly being used to drive up the price for others.
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I love when there are great photos that perfectly express the tweet info. Look at Lillard's expression.
It would likely be TL, Pritchard, Kornet, Champagnie and Brogdon.
Leaves you with:
Porzingis
Tatum
Brown
WHite
Dame
Horford
Hauser
Brissett
Banton
Walsh
Then they'd likely sign some guys to minimum, maybe use the TPE they just got. Guys could likely include
C: Bamba/Biyombo/Griffin
F: Winslow/Saric/Warren/Green/Jones Jr.
G: Diallo/Nunn/Langford/Green
There are plenty of 8th men out there, and that top 7 is quite good. Add say Nunn, Green and Warren.... that's a really good team.
Warren feels like a Brad player but doesn't feel like a Mazzulla player. I'm hoping they kick the tires on him regardless of what happens with Lillard.
This is my working theory. If I were Brad, I'm making a call on Lillard just because it may make a deal x% more expensive for Miami.
What is "Driving the price up for Miami"? What's the difference between "all in" and "mostly in" for Miami here? I find it hard to believe that Portland and Miami are quibbling over Tyler Herro and how protected a 2029 pick is, with Dame involved. Honest question, not shade.
That was my reaction as well. For Miami to get a deal done they basically need to give Portland every asset they have. It’s basically Herro, Jacquez, 2028/30 picks, and then either relief from the Nurkic contract if they take Lowry or Robinson or the pu pu platter of Martin, Jovic, and Highsmith if they don’t want either of those contracts. If there was a way to sweeten the pot, they’d already be doing it.
I'm sure they are working on seeing if there are 3rd / 4th / 5th teams around the league who might spin their pieces into gold
For example if Portland doesn't love Jovic. is thre a team out there that would want him for a future #1. Is there a team that is win now and thinks Martin could be a key piece and would give up assets to get him that might be more future and appeal to Portland. It is assumed they are working with OKC to move and unprotect their 2025 first. If OKC is willing to mov it to an unprotect 26 (or 28/30) pick, then Miami could include 3 firsts into the deal. OKC already has 3 picks in 2025, and in a Dame scenario this isn't a great pick, so they might be willing to push and get the future unprotected,
Eh, he's doing typical agent stuff to try to get his client what he wants. That Miami deal is never going away and Cronin would be foolish to commit to it this early. Lillard has $216M remaining on his contract and doesn't have a no-trade. I have a hunch that he'll become a "happy" player at some point if Cronin sticks to his guns.
Spears re-iterated that Tatum is recruiting Dame hard. Said he wonders if Boston would have the guts to pull it off, because Dame and Tatum do have a real relationship.
View: https://twitter.com/TheNBACentral/status/1676957478846894081?s=20
View: https://twitter.com/TheNBACentral/status/1676957478846894081?s=20
That's just basic agent things, if anything that tells me he's a little desperate and thinks that POR is going to hold his guy for the best deal no matter what, and the hit to Dame of forcing his way to MIA now is less than the hit to his reputation if he sits out in POR or otherwise is petulant.
Really has anyone more aggressively tried to set their rep on fire before? He built his whole image through tons of media as the guy who was loyal, the guy who would never try to take the easy path, etc. And now he's saying "I want to go play 1 place only, I don't care about winning a title or competing, I care about playing in Miami" Twitter is going to be roasting him forever. If he goes to MIA and doesn't win, his rep will be "he was always a fake star, put up numbers on losers, then couldn't even win with a team that made the finals the year before"
Can they? It seems like it is very hard to make money work without Dame. You can basically trade every rostered guard (MB, DW, and PP) , or you can deal MB, TL, and everyone making under 10 mil.
To some degree it depends on how teams view MB to me, can they move him to a 3rd team and get real value, or are they stuck with him. I guess the same for TL.
Celtics are cleaner on draft picks, but none of them are real promising. As opposed to say Miami, where you can look at 28 and 30 and think they might be awful and that pick may be top 5-10
I think based on roster construction, POR would keep TL, flip Brogdon (probably to the Clips), flip Pritchard for garbage, cut Champagnie. The appeal of a Celtics deal over MIami is that you get at least 1 potentially 2 more 1sts out of it (Celtics could offer up to 5, Heat max out at 3)
In theory, yeah, but that team would be ridiculously expensive in a couple of years. Not sure Wyc would pay that much. It's sort of a pipe dream. I think the real problem with him going anywhere else but Miami is, who else wants him on that contract?
Also, just because Tatum is interested in adding Dame doesn't mean the Celtics are.
Honestly, especially in this situation where the alternative is he goes to your biggest conference rival/threat, I think you just take the chance. Is Dame really going to pout his way at age 33 and no titles out of playing for probably the Vegas title favorites? Maaaybe, but I'd still take that risk. I think it's quite unlikely.
Yup. We're talking about a guy of immense talent and drive who has won 4 playoff series in a decade+ career. He'll settle in, especially if Tatum is really his boy.
Btw, I think there's a real decision as to whether you'd even want to get Dame without giving up Brown. If you get Dame, I don't think you can extend Brown. So you're talking about either building a crazy superteam for 1 year and then losing Brown/the other assets you give up instead of Brown for that 1 year window, or then shipping out Brown in addition to your other assets to find other cheaper, longer term pieces. The easier solution seems to be just including Brown in the deal and keeping RW/assets longer term. I also think you might just have too many options if you have a team with Tatum, Brown, KP, AND Dame. That's a lot of cooks.
Tough call, though. Having four All Stars starting next to a veteran borderline Hall of Famer (maybe that's generous, I dunno) is pretty insane, even if only for one season.
Tough call, though. Having four All Stars starting next to a veteran borderline Hall of Famer (maybe that's generous, I dunno) is pretty insane, even if only for one season.
I think there are depth and of course money concerns. I think they supermax Jaylen for sure if they do this, because trading one of the 4 stars is one of the best ways to start breaking down the salary and adding depth in a year or two.
It's a lot of cooks, but it can be done. But really only if Lillard makes it happen. He would be the point guard, so he would largely control who gets the ball. He's an A+ scorer and an A- facilitator. If he wants to be the MAN then shot distribution could get very messy, and egos would be bruised, and it could be a bad recipe. But if he's willing to facilitate and not feel the need to be a 30 point guy, then this could be the most dynamic collection of elite offensive talent the league has seen in a long time, maybe rivaled only by the peak KD/Steph/Klay Warriors.
he can care about both those things, especially considering MIA has been to two finals and one eastern conference final in the past 4 years
And the point was unless they win, it won't read as wanting to win. People will mock him for saying he won't go to a contender, only MIA, Shaq will be on Inside the NBA 2029 season opener talking about how Dame could have had a ring, but he'd rather chase Instagram models on the beach.
Chris Haynes, Ramona Shelburne, and Bobby Marks have all said they’re interested in him. Washburn and Mannix too, but they aren’t very good.
I think if I were Brad Stevens trying to sell Wyc on the merits of trading for Lillard without giving up Brown (which I think is the most likely deal, based on Brown's asymmetrical value to both teams) I'd frame the argument like this:
The trade makes Boston clear NBA title favorites over Denver for 2024.
After 2024, you can still probably move contracts so that you no longer have four huge salaries. Extensions for Porzingis and Brown both kick in that summer, but both should have positive trade value, with the caveat of a large Porzingis injury risk even on a declining extension. In summer 2025, the Tatum super max (hopefully) and Lillard mega max both commence which leaves even less room for error, but at this point, the Celtics will have transitioned back to a 2 or 3-star team.
If that's our offer then it's worse than Miami's. The only way I think it can happen is a three team with JB going out to a team that has draft capital that's likely to be in the lottery. The silence around his extension is... something.
I don’t think it’s worse than Miami’s. I guess it depends what value you put on TL and his health issues.
But I think someone (Spurs?) would beat it.