Devers has roughly the same number of PAs he had last year (240 in 2017, 293 in 2018) so I thought it would be instructive to compare his YoY stats:
Season | f-Off | f-Def | fWar | bWar | oWAR | dWar | UZR | UZR/150 |
2017 | 3.6 | -3.8 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0 | -4.6 | -11.5 |
2018 | -1.1 | -0.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.6 | -0.3 | -1.3 | -2.3 |
At first blush, his numbers look worse across the board, though his fWar is about the same and many of his defensive stats look notably better; the stats suggest he was very defensively bad last year and merely below average this year. Anecdotally, Devers has made a number of really good plays and a number of really bad throwing errors. If he reduces the latter with maturity, I wonder if becomes an average-to-above-average defensive 3b.
Season | BB % | K % | BB/K | AVG | OPB | SLG | OPS | ISO | BsR | Spd | BABIP | wRC+ |
2017 | 7.5% | 23.8% | 0.32 | 0.284 | 0.338 | 0.482 | 0.820 | 0.198 | 0.2 | 3.5 | 0.342 | 111 |
2018 | 6.5% | 26.3% | 0.25 | 0.243 | 0.290 | 0.43 | 0.720 | 0.188 | 3 | 3.2 | 0.292 | 88 |
Walks are slightly down and Ks are slightly up, but neither value is all that different from last year. The most glaring difference to my eye is the huge drop in BABIP, from 0.342 last year to 0.292 this year. You'd think that would suggest that changes in his batted ball profile is the likely culprit, but, as you'll see below, there isn't a ton of a evidence for that. It's possible that Devers has largely been unlucky this season.
What's most surprising to me is his BSR, which, at 3.0, is good for 17th in the league right behind Benintendi. His baby face and 230lb frame belie above average speed (his sprint speed is 27.3 ft/s while league average is 27.0. For reference, Betts is 28.2 and Beni is 27.7) He's also 4/5 on steal attempts, has only made 4 outs on the bases (same as Mookie and Beni), and has taken the extra base (per Bref) 46% of the time, higher than both Mookie (37%) and Beni (39%). You could make the very credible argument that base running is the strongest part of Raphi's game right now.
Season | GB/FB | LD% | GB% | FB% | IFFB% | HR/FB% | PULL% | CENT% | OPPO % | HARD % |
2017 | 1.38 | 15.3% | 49.1% | 35.6% | 13.8% | 17.2% | 34.5% | 33.9% | 31.5% | 34.5% |
2018 | 1.12 | 16.8% | 43.9% | 39.3% | 13.0% | 15.6% | 38.1% | 37.6% | 24.4% | 36.5% |
Devers is hitting fewer ground balls, more line drives, and making harder contact. He is pulling the ball quite a bit more than last year, so it's possible that he's hitting into the shift more often.
Season | Barrels | Barrel % | Exit Velocity | Launch Angle | XBA | XSLG | XWOBA | WOBA | Hard Hit % | PA/HR |
2017 | 14 | 8.50% | 89.2 | 7.7 | 0.228 | 0.415 | 0.300 | 0.344 | 44.8% | 24.0 |
2018 | 19 | 9.60% | 92.3 | 11.4 | 0.249 | 0.451 | 0.322 | 0.304 | 45.7% | 24.4 |
All that said, it looks like he's hitting the ball with more authority and in the air more often. His average exit velocity is up from 89.2 to 92.3, good for 19th in the league, and his launch angle has increased from 7.7 to 11.4 degrees. It's possible that he's been hitting lazy fly balls interspersed with hard grounders into the shift, but his barrel % is up a tic over last year as well. These are also strong indications that Devers has been more unlucky than sucky, at least relative to last year. His XBA, XSLG, and XWOBA are all meaningfully higher than they were last year, supporting this point.
Season | O-Swing % | Z-Swing % | Swing % | O-Contact % | Z-Contact % | Contact % | Zone % | F-Strike% | Sw-Str% |
2017 | 36.1% | 68.6% | 50.7% | 63.8% | 82.6% | 75.2% | 45.0% | 63.8% | 12.4% |
2018 | 36.9% | 77.3% | 53.5% | 61.6% | 81.1% | 73.2% | 40.9% | 65.2% | 14.2% |
The predominate characterization is that Devers has been a free swinger this year, especially out of the zone, but the data doesn't necessarily back this up, as his O-Swing% is only slightly higher than last year. However, he has been much more aggressive *in the zone*, with a Z-Swing% up from 68.6% last year to 77.3% this year. It's possible he's trying to hunt for strikes like the rest of the team but perhaps he's been hunting the wrong ones.
Season | O-Swing % | Z-Swing % | Swing % | O-Contact % | Z-Contact % | Contact % | Zone % | F-Strike% | Sw-Str% |
2017 | 36.1% | 68.6% | 50.7% | 63.8% | 82.6% | 75.2% | 45.0% | 63.8% | 12.4% |
2018 | 36.9% | 77.3% | 53.5% | 61.6% | 81.1% | 73.2% | 40.9% | 65.2% | 14.2% |
Finally, pitchers have definitely approached him differently this year, with a notable jump in the number of change-ups he's seeing. The weird thing is that he's hitting changups better this year (142 wRC+ this year vs 46 wRC+ last year). The pitches he's doing worst on are sinkers (31 wRC+), cutters (70 wRC+), and splitters (48 wRC+), which account for 22% of the pitches he's seen. Pitchers seem to be using these pitches to pound him down and away but largely *in* the strike zone. Perhaps this is enough to account for Devers relative drop in production despite the fact that he's swinging at more pitches in the zone.
EDIT: typos, clarity