Who's on Third? I don't know

MikeM

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In the hypothetical not going to happen category, I wonder if DD would consider moving Devers for 1.5 seasons of Donaldson. I wouldn't do it, and in-division trades of any magnitude are very rare.

But it's the type of move DD does, and it maximizes this window we have with Sale, Price and all this cheap young talent.
I think this ends up overstating DD's aggressiveness some (maybe if you tacked on another year of control with Donaldson).

I personally have DD liking his sluggers, with the year Devers is having down there leaving him pretty dang safe. Plus if he was going to make a major play to fill the 3B hole for this season, the time to do that was long before now imo. Having already rode it this far and with the team still being a couple games up, you might as well just stay the course over making a panic type move now.

Like Prado, who probably just ends up piling more dead money on top of Sandoval's going in to next year.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Considering the money they're into with Sandoval already (dead money or not, they've put $20M per year into 3B already), I just don't see them throwing more money into the position by trading for Donaldson or Prado or signing Moustakas this winter or anything like that. Until Sandoval's money is off the books (his salary has luxury tax implications through 2019 whether they keep him or cut him), they're just not going to spend big bucks on 3B. At most, they might trade for a band-aid solution like Frazier that gets them through the end of this season.

Anything for 2018 and beyond that doesn't involve handing the job to Devers is fantastical wishcasting at its finest.
 

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I can't imagine why the Sox would be interested in Prado with the years/money he still has under contract. What's his role on this team next year? Or the year after? 35 yo utility guy? We have younger options. And for $13.5M & $15M/yr?? Yikes. The Marlins would have to pick up a ton of that cash for me to trade them a B- prospect, and that still wouldn't make it sensible in my view.
 

johnnywayback

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Prado isn't even really a utility guy at this point. He hasn't played the outfield since 2014 or second base since he played eleven games there in 2015.

If we are going to trade for someone, I don't think it's nuts to look for someone who could be a platoon partner / insurance policy for Devers in 2018, but ideally that player would have a salary more befitting that role and a skillset that would make him useful in other areas if Devers proves capable of starting 150 games at 3B.

Here, I am mostly thinking of David Freese (can spell Moreland at 1B, makes $6M in 2018, and if we want the roster spot for Sam Travis instead, we can just decline his option) or Jed Lowrie (can play 2B and maybe even still some SS, $6M option for 2018).
 

NDame616

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What other creative options do they have with Pablo at this point? Its either they put him on the 25 man or DFA him correct?
Come up with a fake injury to restart the rehab time and give him a few more weeks to see if he can play AAA baseball and see if some team will take him if we eat 99% of the contract
 

grimshaw

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Lin had no career L/R split in the minors and this year had identical slash lines vs L and R in the minors. This is only true if you say Lin doesn't hit righties well either.
He did ops .429 against them last year and was generally not hitting well until this year.
 

Cesar Crespo

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He did ops .429 against them last year and was generally not hitting well until this year.
Right, but every year prior he hit lefties better. I don't think we know if he can hit lefties or not since prior to this year, he didn't hit at all.
 

Rasputin

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What other creative options do they have with Pablo at this point? Its either they put him on the 25 man or DFA him correct?
I am reminded of a scene from Harry Potter where the kids learn that Snape is going to referee a quidditch match and someone suggests Harry pretend to break his arm and Ron says, "Really break your arm."

On the Devers front, I have a hard time thinking they're considering him as a serious option without calling him up to the bucket yet. I think he is at best a plan B for September and the playoff roster if Plan A doesn't work out. Mind you, plan A is about three or four different internal plans with who knows how many external options so Devers is clearly Plan X.
 

Lowrielicious

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I am reminded of a scene from Harry Potter where the kids learn that Snape is going to referee a quidditch match and someone suggests Harry pretend to break his arm and Ron says, "Really break your arm."
Leg

On the Devers front, I have a hard time thinking they're considering him as a serious option without calling him up to the bucket yet. I think he is at best a plan B for September and the playoff roster if Plan A doesn't work out. Mind you, plan A is about three or four different internal plans with who knows how many external options so Devers is clearly Plan X.
Why particularly is the bolded an issue? Benintendi didn't play a single game in AAA only last year. Is it an age thing? Devers is two years younger than AB was last year, so I can see that potentially being a factor. Their AA numbers are really quite similar with Devers higher in Ks but also higher in power.
The other factor I suppose is defense. Benintendi being a plus fielder (which shouldn't change significantly on the jump to MLB) his defense could carry any potential struggles with the bat whereas Devers defense less able to carry a struggling bat (if he were to struggle on the jump).
 

shaggydog2000

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Why particularly is the bolded an issue? Benintendi didn't play a single game in AAA only last year. Is it an age thing? Devers is two years younger than AB was last year, so I can see that potentially being a factor. Their AA numbers are really quite similar with Devers higher in Ks but also higher in power.
The other factor I suppose is defense. Benintendi being a plus fielder (which shouldn't change significantly on the jump to MLB) his defense could carry any potential struggles with the bat whereas Devers defense less able to carry a struggling bat (if he were to struggle on the jump).
Devers has been taken off the AA roster, but is currently listed as inactive. Basically, he's not on any roster from what I can tell. Which means they're about to make a decision to get rid of someone from the AAA roster and move him up. I just don't know who is going, and why they're waiting.
 

Rasputin

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Why particularly is the bolded an issue? Benintendi didn't play a single game in AAA only last year. Is it an age thing? Devers is two years younger than AB was last year, so I can see that potentially being a factor. Their AA numbers are really quite similar with Devers higher in Ks but also higher in power.
The other factor I suppose is defense. Benintendi being a plus fielder (which shouldn't change significantly on the jump to MLB) his defense could carry any potential struggles with the bat whereas Devers defense less able to carry a struggling bat (if he were to struggle on the jump).
Benintendi also played college ball and essentially just tore through the system adjusting to every new level quickly and excelling in short order.

Devers is younger, didn't play in college, and has had some legitimate struggles this season. I would want--and I think they would want--him to have some time to adjust at the next level where he's going to face a fair number of guys who are borderline major league caliber. If he can hit them, he'll get a chance with the big club in September.

I could be wrong, he could join the big club on Friday.
 

Byrdbrain

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He played in the All Star Futures game this weekend so he wasn't with the minor league team and AAA has their All Star game tonight.
He's playing in the AA all star game as I type this. I don't think he'll be going back to Portland.
 

shaggydog2000

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He's playing in the AA all star game as I type this. I don't think he'll be going back to Portland.
I don't remember a player being on the inactive list during a minor league all-star game before, but I probably haven't paid that close attention to it. Don't see why they'd take him off the roster if he wasn't moving up.
 

snowmanny

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February, 2016:

I think another factor here is that Benintendi is likely only a year away - perhaps even a mid/late season call-up like Conforto last year (as cited by Keith Law). .
He's played 19 games above Lowell. Saying he's likely only a year away is a tad aggressive don't you think?
http://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/start-sit-trade-play-along-with-dave.10955/page-18#post-1581306

July, 2017:

Benintendi also played college ball and essentially just tore through the system adjusting to every new level quickly and excelling in short order.

Devers is younger, didn't play in college, and has had some legitimate struggles this season. I would want--and I think they would want--him to have some time to adjust at the next level where he's going to face a fair number of guys who are borderline major league caliber. If he can hit them, he'll get a chance with the big club in September.

I could be wrong, he could join the big club on Friday.
Well it does happen, rarely.
 
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pantsparty

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He's playing in the AA all star game as I type this. I don't think he'll be going back to Portland.
Thanks. I looked at the box score for that game and somehow totally missed his name. I'd be shocked if he isn't with the PawSox for their game tomorrow, and I think part of the reason he wasn't promoted sooner is that the AA manager is apparently a defensive guru and they wanted him to have as much time as possible with him as that's the main area of his game that will determine when he can stick at the major league level.
 

DanoooME

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I am reminded of a scene from Harry Potter where the kids learn that Snape is going to referee a quidditch match and someone suggests Harry pretend to break his arm and Ron says, "Really break your arm."

On the Devers front, I have a hard time thinking they're considering him as a serious option without calling him up to the bucket yet. I think he is at best a plan B for September and the playoff roster if Plan A doesn't work out. Mind you, plan A is about three or four different internal plans with who knows how many external options so Devers is clearly Plan X.
Shane Stant is still out of jail, right?

I have to agree with this. Devers is the last option in the pile, so they are likely to go through Pablo (quickly please), Peralta (maybe skip this one), and Holt (hopefully) before Devers. Let's hope Tzu-Devin Linrrero exceeds all of our expectations and delays/skips some of these options until rosters expand.
 

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Shane Stant is still out of jail, right?

I have to agree with this. Devers is the last option in the pile, so they are likely to go through Pablo (quickly please), Peralta (maybe skip this one), and Holt (hopefully) before Devers. Let's hope Tzu-Devin Linrrero exceeds all of our expectations and delays/skips some of these options until rosters expand.
I think this is probably most likely. Peralta looks like a non-factor, but I can see Pablo getting one more shot with a very short leash. The stabilization of the defense at third has really stabilized the overall team defense and they're not going to mess with that for long. Otherwise, ride it out with Lin/Holt/Marrero and see how Devers does in AAA. If he seems ready, offensively and defensively, give him a shot in September. Spending assets for a third baseman at this point seems ill-advised.
 

SouthernBoSox

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I think this is probably most likely. Peralta looks like a non-factor, but I can see Pablo getting one more shot with a very short leash. The stabilization of the defense at third has really stabilized the overall team defense and they're not going to mess with that for long. Otherwise, ride it out with Lin/Holt/Marrero and see how Devers does in AAA. If he seems ready, offensively and defensively, give him a shot in September. Spending assets for a third baseman at this point seems ill-advised.
It depends on the assets.

A bat at third base really changes the complexion of this team. The pitching is there, it can win a world series. They need one more guy who can leave with one swing right now.
 

Heating up in the bullpen

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I don't remember a player being on the inactive list during a minor league all-star game before, but I probably haven't paid that close attention to it. Don't see why they'd take him off the roster if he wasn't moving up.
I believe he was on the Temporary Inactive List because of being in the Futures Game on Sunday - a day his team was playing. That allowed Portland to add another player in his roster spot for the game.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I don't think there's any doubt that it is Devers. The talk all along (or at least since they moved Chavis to Portland) was that Devers was headed to Pawtucket right after the AA All Star game.
 

Byrdbrain

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If you recall Chavis was moved up to AA right after the High A ASG. The Sox have done that over the last few years, they like to reward the guys who have played well with a showcase appearance and then a promotion.

Unfortunately I think Pablo is going to get one more chance at the MLB level when his rehab time is up(which I believe is Sunday).

Edit: I just saw tonight's PawSox lineup and Pablo isn't playing at all. Seems odd that he wouldn't be.
 
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dbn

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Just for some context on sample size, and because I recently added a plotting interface to the algorithm, here are the running OPS's with confidence intervals based on bootstrap resampling for Travis Shaw and Tzu-Wei Lin. The cyan region is the middle 50% of the 75 qualified AL batters from 2016 - so higher than AL average, but "typical" OPS range for everyday players.

I'm not posting this to make any claims, rather just to inform on the discussion. It seems that Shaw has indeed been much better at the plate than an average starter, with small confidence; and at least as good and probably much better than an average starter, with high confidence. Lin: so far so good, but the sample is way too small to say much of anything with any confidence (as we all should have expected).

I can do these quickly and easily for any player over any time span, so PM me if you want to see anyone else.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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It's probably dumb and irrational... but I have a nagging worry that Panda could be a bad influence on Devers. Something about players on the downsides of their careers around young players on the upswing (and clearly taking their place) interracting always has me worried.
 

JimD

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It's probably dumb and irrational... but I have a nagging worry that Panda could be a bad influence on Devers. Something about players on the downsides of their careers around young players on the upswing (and clearly taking their place) interracting always has me worried.
Any time spent in together the Pawsox clubhouse will be fleeting since Sandoval has to be recalled from the minors by Monday.
 

Rasputin

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Peralta is gone.
Sandoval is gone.

Things are starting to heat up, as they say.
 

MikeM

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I'd of been more impressed with DD if this had happened before now, but better late then never I guess.

So if/when the speculated return to SF falls flat, and if/when he ends up officially retiring before the start of next season, would he still be counting towards the LT hit?
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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I'd of been more impressed with DD if this had happened before now, but better late then never I guess.

So if/when the speculated return to SF falls flat, and if/when he ends up officially retiring before the start of next season, would he still be counting towards the LT hit?
If he retires, the Red Sox no longer have to pay him. So as long as he's an "active" player looking for work, he'll get his money. Even if no team is willing to sign him. Of course, SOMEONE will take a chance on him.
 

MikeM

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If he retires, the Red Sox no longer have to pay him. So as long as he's an "active" player looking for work, he'll get his money. Even if no team is willing to sign him. Of course, SOMEONE will take a chance on him.
My bad, I was overlooking the simple aspect that guys forfeit their salary rights on retirement.

Really though I was just thinking about loophole possibilities that buy your way out of being on the hook for that LT money, especially in this fairly unique case where I disagree with you that he'll see any potential flyer interest beyond this year. Or that he'll even want to keep trying to stick on somewhere for that matter.
 
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Red(s)HawksFan

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I believe the only remaining "loophole" opportunities the Red Sox have of being off the hook for the remaining salary owed is if he elects official retirement or if a team claims him off waivers. Either scenario represents a true miracle and saves them both the luxury tax implications and the actual cash outlay of the remaining $48M. Neither will happen in a million years.
 

Rasputin

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Of course, SOMEONE will take a chance on him.
Why?

As someone pointed out in the other thread, there's not a single thing he does well enough to contribute even in a tiny role. Literally the only thing he can do is sell tickets as a name player and there's only one team that applies to and he burned some bridges on the way out of town.
 

AB in DC

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Well, surely he'll get a spring training invite somewhere, but that won't help the salary situation unless he makes the roster.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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Well, surely he'll get a spring training invite somewhere, but that won't help the salary situation unless he makes the roster.
Even if he makes the roster, the Sox are on the hook for his contract. If he isn't traded for and refuses his assignment, it's over. He's a free agent, the Sox are paying his full contract and he can latch on anywhere he wants for league minimum while still cashing his 19 million per year.

And that ability to sign for league minimum is why he'll get a shot with someone. There's no downside for the team to give him a shot if they're in dire straits mid season because of injuries or want to bring him on board in spring training after he gets into "the best shape of his life" this winter.

He may never be effective again (and I'd certainly bet on that being the most likely outcome) but he'll get at least one more chance before he hangs up the cleats (officially or otherwise).