sean1562 said:
If Cingrani steps up is a huge question mark. The guy had an FIP of 5.37 last year. I would hink if they think they can contend they would see a top three of Cueto, Latos and Bailey as a much more attractive than one that replaces Latos with Cingrani. AS we learned this year, sometimes it takes prospects some time to figure things out, if at all. But you are right, Votto returning to form for next year will be huge for them. I dont see Phillips getting much better. And if half of the young talent that the Cards has emerges next season they will be much better than the reds. The same could be said for the Pirates, Polanco could become an All Star OF and Cole could emerge as a front line starter. Alvarez at 1B and Harrison fulltime at 3B makes that offense pretty stellar. When does Tallion get back? The Reds just dont seem nearly as well positioned as any of the other teams, and I dont think they see a trade eliminating one of their top starters for Cespedes as one that will bring them that much closer to an NL Central title.
All depends on how you want to spin the narrative I'd say.
Votto is the best hitter in the division on a normal year. Bruce is every bit as good as any other team's #2 when he has a normal year. Mesoraco just had his breakout year, if he reaches 85-90% of his 2014 season next year surrounded by a rebounded Votto and Bruce they're the best lineup in the Central and it isn't even close. Frazier is solid. Some bounce back to career norms from Phillips (or just no further decline) and any improvement by Hamilton and they'd be one of the best lineups in all of baseball. Adding someone like Cespedes as the #5 bat would be a huge step towards ensuring a complete offensive turnaround from 2014.
Meanwhile even if they trade one of Cueto/Latos they'll still have a highly competitive front four with the remainder of Cueto/Latos, Mike Leake, Alfredo Simon, and Homer Bailey. All mid-3's or better ERAs. Latos threw the fewest innings in 2014 and I'd imagine he's the one they're most open to trading of the two front line guys. Cingrani is obviously the guy they want to be the 5th starter in this group, but if the Sox send one of the Webster/Ranaudo/Workman/Escobar/Barnes group in the deal that would provide the much needed insurance they'd want to move one of their best two.
Add that they have Aroldis Chapman for two more seasons before he's a free agent and I don't see the Reds as a team willing to fold 'em and hope they rebuild faster than the Cubs who have spent the last 5 years rebuilding.
Meanwhile the Cards still aren't getting expected production from Tavares. Pischotty and Grichuk are comparable prospects to JBJ and just as likely to flop. Matt Holiday is declining. Yadi Molina's heavy workload seems to be dragging on his health. Peralta is as likely to go into the tank next year as he is to have another solid season. Same for Jon Jay who played over his head all season. Wainright is clearly starting to lose the battle against father time. Wacha has dealt with injuries all season and will likely carry some of that baggage into the off-season. Miller still hasn't figured it out. Rosenthal fell apart late this year, significantly weakening their bullpen. Lackey is a solid #2 but not better than that, he isn't anchoring the staff and he already has shown the ol' bitchy horse face we're all familiar with in the playoffs when he flipped out at Grichuk for misplaying a fly ball against SF. Lynn's FIP and xFIP were the same last year as his career norms, his ERA dropped a run because he was lucky (K rate dropped, BABIP dropped, HR rate dropped, LOB% shot up, all the calling cards of a guy due for regression).
Again, you can spin it any way you want. The Reds have a good team overall, they're missing a few pieces here and there. For them it would make a ton of sense to parlay one year of a front line starter into immediate offensive help, more young cost controlled pitching depth, and additional farm hands to backfill with should they miss in the short term. But they aren't likely to just pack it in and concede 2015 as long as they have the majority of the 2014 rotation still in-house, Votto, Bruce, Mesaraco, etc.. Most teams feel like they're close any given year, the Reds have a ton of very legitimate reasons to feel that way for 2015.
Plympton91 said:
Just to pile on a bit, Ranaudo is EXACTLY what you would hope to get with a sandwich pick. A potential top 10 selection who fell in the draft due to signability and lingering injury concerns. The Red Sox gave him a multi-million dollar bonus that was way above the current slot money for that spot. And, with him having reached AAA and achieved some modicum of trade value, he's already outperformed probably all but a quarter of the sandwich picks of the past 10 years.
He also has the skills to potentially make an excellent reliever. His curve is an ML quality out pitch and his fastball is already in the mid-90's. If a change in roles kicks his fastball up to the upper 90's and he can show some level of control at that velo he'd be in the upper 5-10% of all sandwich picks.
I don't think any team is likely to come calling for Ranaudo in particular unless they see something most everyone else is missing, but Escobar would fit the needs of any team wanting a cheap LHP to compete as a 5th/6th SP/long man type. Webster is a desirable target for any team who can afford to roll the dice for a full season on a #5 with #2/#3 potential if he puts it together. Barnes is basically Ranaudo with more hope that he sticks in the rotation and therefore more value as a result. They're all guys most any team can find a spot on their 25 man roster for. Hell, we'd all be real excited to see one or two of them as part of the Sox' pitching staff for 2015 if it wasn't for already having De La Rosa, Kelly, etc.. The Sox simply have too many for us to appreciate what we have.
