#DFG: Canceling the Noise

crystalline · May 6, 2015

Joshv02 said:
I'm not that smart, I readily admit. And I know this post will be buried and not seen, soon.
But having quickly skimmed past the generalized stuff in the index, I'm looking at Table 13 at page 58 of the index. There we learn what we should expect, using the Ideal Gas Law, the various balls to be with various assumptions.

The Patriots average game ball read at 11.09 (using one gauge), but were expected to read at an average of 11.53 psi. Exponent says other factors don't get you there.

But seriously. That's what we are talking about. 0.5 PSI, on average, over 12 balls.

Unless I'm misreading it, talk about burying the lede.

Moreover, the second set of measurements of the patriots balls have a higher mean than the first set. No change in mean exists for the Colts balls. Does that mean the order of measurement allowed some balls to come to temperature, and some not?

Corsi · May 6, 2015

Smiling Joe Hesketh said:
Give it a rest. Impinging the impartiality of a law firm partner like this is bullshit.

I said FWIW, and this is the first time I've ever offered any opinion such as this, so don't tell me to give anything a rest.

Stitch01 · May 6, 2015

dcmissle said:
That's true enough, and I'm sure Brady would appeal any suspension.

But the Pats are accountable for everything their people do in connection with games, even if BB and Kraft didn't know. I can easily see them losing a high draft pick.

And anyone who reviews that decision is likely to give the report significant weight. Circumstantial evidence can hang you in this country.

I think they are going to lose a pick. I dont think its going to be high because it exonerates Kraft and BB. I think that's going to move it into Falcons/crowd noise territory.

Just think, in a competent league a two minute phone call from the NFL office to the Pats before the game ends this whole fiasco before it starts.

WayBackVazquez · May 6, 2015

Smiling Joe Hesketh said:
You're an attorney, why do you say this? This is more or less the format I expected, although obviously the conclusions are disappointing.

Because it's not even close to being an objective report, it's more like a summary judgment motion. The exponent report reads like a plaintiff's expert report. I can almost guarantee you some scientist(s)/statistician(s) will prepare a "rebuttal" report, criticizing the findings and assumptions.

Morgan's Magic Snowplow · May 6, 2015

tims4wins said:
Wait a sec... they say the Pats balls should measure between 11.52 and 11.32... and this shows that 8 out of 11 were within range by Prioleau's measurements with another at 11.20... so 8 out of 11, borderline 9 out of 11 were within range... and it is more likely than not that they leaked air?

I fully agree with others that overall the report looks bad for the Pats, but this makes no sense to me.

The fact that they range so much (from 10.9 to 12.3) also just shows that either (a) the assumption that they all started at 12.5 is wrong or (b) that there are other possible explanations (ball prep, air released during testing, footballs actually lost PSI at differential rates because of use, etc).

Honestly, this is terrible evidence that the balls were deflated by human agency. They have no clue.

Joshv02 · May 6, 2015

crystalline said:
Exponent are a group of very good qnd well paid litigation consultants who are hired by law firms all the time and by Tom Brady almost never.

Of course their reputation is at stake so they will not lie. But let's not pretend they don't know what side their bread is buttered on. They know exactly who their employer is and they know exactly what their employer wants them to say. In the same way that management consultants know exactly what the C level executive that hired them wants them to say.

You'll actually understand what they wrote better than I will, but how it is read is completely different than what they write.

Norm loves Vera · May 6, 2015

Candidly.. I hope Brady goes rogue, gets a few Tattoos and goes all NWO on the NFL ala Hulk Hogan. Golden boy image gone.. embrace the dark side.

Smiling Joe Hesketh · May 6, 2015

Corsi said:
I said FWIW, and this is the first time I've ever offered any opinion such as this, so don't tell me to give anything a rest.

You're awfully sore about not being the first to report this. Stop acting like a child. Saying "OMG the law partner hates the Pats!" is the worst kind of infantile homerism. Christ.

ivanvamp · May 6, 2015

DennyDoyle'sBoil said:
I don't agree. It actually is the one part of the report that to me really seemed to be grasping pretty hard at straws. (I know many will say the whole thing is like that, but of the 80 pages I've read, I don't agree on first blush.)

Once the news came out, given what a shit storm it was, it seems to me very very likely that there would be an awful lot of "how you doing bud" calls and "what the fuck happened" calls. I don't think it shows guilt. I think it's exactly what one would expect given how this played out.

I agree fully. I think his interview on D&C was genuine and he was probably like, What the hell is going on? So as soon as Brady's off the air, he promptly calls him up to ask, WTF!?

And then subsequent calls were to see how he's holding up. Makes perfect sense.

Not that that's how it will be viewed by the public though.

DennyDoyle'sBoil · May 6, 2015

Goodell statement, according to Schefter. https://www.facebook.com/AdamSchefter/posts/952048978181077

Statement from Roger Goodell:
"I want to express my appreciation to Ted Wells and his colleagues for performing a thorough and independent investigation, the findings and conclusions of which are set forth in today’s comprehensive report.
As with other recent matters involving violations of competitive rules, Troy Vincent and his team will consider what steps to take in light of the report, both with respect to possible disciplinary action and to any changes in protocols that are necessary to avoid future incidents of this type. At the same time, we will continue our efforts vigorously to protect the integrity of the game and promote fair play at all times."

This actually sounds initially kind of balanced. I like that he has grouped this in with "other recent matters."

I know we all have opinions on what kind of violation this would be if it did occur, and whether it really is a competitive issue, and whether or not other teams get away with similar stuff. But despite the disparity in treatment in the media because of the teams involved, putting this type of violation (if it happened) in the same category as piped in crowd noise kind of seems right to me.

SteveF · May 6, 2015

crystalline said:
Moreover, the second set of measurements of the patriots balls have a higher mean than the first set. No change in mean exists for the Colts balls. Does that mean the order of measurement allowed some balls to come to temperature, and some not?

The colts 4 balls were measured after the Patriots 12, so they had more time to warm up. They (meaning the time difference and difference in # of balls measured) were both factors considered by Exponent and by themselves not deemed sufficient to explain the difference in the pressure lost by the two sets of balls.

dcmissle · May 6, 2015

Stitch01 said:
I think they are going to lose a pick. I dont think its going to be high because it exonerates Kraft and BB. I think that's going to move it into Falcons/crowd noise territory.

Just think, in a competent league a two minute phone call from the NFL office to the Pats before the game ends this whole fiasco before it starts.

No truer sentence has been written in this forum than your last one. That call was not made because people in the League office were out to nail the Pats.

WayBackVazquez · May 6, 2015

Smiling Joe Hesketh said:
Give it a rest. Impinging the impartiality of a law firm partner like this is bullshit.

I think you mean impugning, and what? It's bullshit to question the impartiality of a lawyer?

Corsi · May 6, 2015

Smiling Joe Hesketh said:
You're awfully sore about not being the first to report this. Stop acting like a child. Saying "OMG the law partner hates the Pats!" is the worst kind of infantile homerism. Christ.

I could give a shit that I didn't post it here first. And don't put words in my mouth.

Smiling Joe Hesketh · May 6, 2015

WayBackVazquez said:
I think you mean impugning, and what? It's bullshit to question the impartiality of a lawyer?

You really think Karp is using the Wells Report to deliberately stick it to the Pats? Come on.

tims4wins · May 6, 2015

I keep coming back to the 16 PSI comment from the Jets game... it seems to me more likely than not that Brady just wanted to avoid that scenario going forward... am I off base?

PBDWake · May 6, 2015

Goodell might issue a suspension on Brady (I don't think he will), but there's no way the NFLPA lets him actually serve it.

Smiling Joe Hesketh · May 6, 2015

Corsi said:
I could give a shit that I didn't post it here first. And don't put words in my mouth.

Corsi · May 6, 2015

Smiling Joe Hesketh said:

Who looks infantile here, again?

Smiling Joe Hesketh · May 6, 2015

That would be you.

WayBackVazquez · May 6, 2015

Smiling Joe Hesketh said:
You really think Karp is using the Wells Report to deliberately stick it to the Pats? Come on.

If Paul Weiss thinks the NFL wants a finding of wrongdoing than I absolutely think Paul Weiss would do everything in its power to conclude there was wrongdoing, especially in working with Exponent.

dcdrew10 · May 6, 2015

You know what, I've already at the point of "F*ck it." with Ballghazi. The Pats beat even more snot out of the Colts with the balls properly inflated, dealt with the scrutiny and media pressure for two weeks before the Super Bowl and then went out and won one of the most excited Super Bowls of all time against a team that people were getting ready to anoint as one of the greatest defenses of all time. That is going to be lost in all of this to the average fan. They will quickly forget that Brady lead the Pats down the field and hammered the best secondary (HA!) in the NFL for a winning touchdown. The only reason it might not be forgotten is Butler's INT on what a lot of people are calling a bad play call.

dcmissle · May 6, 2015

DennyDoyle'sBoil said:
Goodell statement, according to Schefter. https://www.facebook.com/AdamSchefter/posts/952048978181077

This actually sounds initially kind of balanced. I like that he has grouped this in with "other recent matters."

I know we all have opinions on what kind of violation this would be if it did occur, and whether it really is a competitive issue, and whether or not other teams get away with similar stuff. But despite the disparity in treatment in the media because of the teams involved, putting this type of violation (if it happened) in the same category as piped in crowd noise kind of seems right to me.

It does. The problem is that time works against us here, unless they take a long time and let passions cool a bit.

The lesson they learned from Ray Rice is not to discipline too quickly, lest you are called on it later.

Corsi · May 6, 2015

SJH, you have a LAWYER backing up my thoughts. You're wrong.

This isn't the first time you've gone out of your way to go after me. Give it a rest. I said nothing inflammatory.

tims4wins · May 6, 2015

Let me know if I missed any possibilities

TSC · May 6, 2015

Corsi said:
Who looks infantile here, again?

It's not like you don't have a track record of trying to be the first person to post something here.

You are what you are.

Smiling Joe Hesketh · May 6, 2015

Corsi said:
SJH, you have a LAWYER backing up my thoughts. You're wrong.

This isn't the first time you've gone out of your way to go after me. Give it a rest. I said nothing inflammatory.

I've met WBV, he's a decent guy but I think he's wrong in this case. We'll all get over it.

And you most certainly did say something inflammatory, insinuating that because one of the guys listed as an author on the report is a Giants fan the contents of the report are not to be trusted. And I said I think that's nonsense.

joe dokes · May 6, 2015

WayBackVazquez said:
I think you mean impugning, and what? It's bullshit to question the impartiality of a lawyer?

In this case, yes. This is probably far from the biggest/highest value case these guys will work on. At a place like Paul Weiss billing $2M is not out of the ordinary. It would be a pretty bad career move to screw a client (the NFL) by doing a hack report.

If Paul Weiss thinks the NFL wants a finding of wrongdoing than I absolutely think Paul Weiss would do everything in its power to conclude there was wrongdoing, especially in working with Exponent.

OK. Fair enough. This is not out of the question. But the lawyers' integrity/reputation may explain why "generally aware" was the best they could do.

Van Everyman · May 6, 2015

There is no Rev said:
So this thing is really going to turn on the interpretation on the part of a 65 year old man of a text conversation between two people he doesn't know?

That's kinda amazing.

How is that any different than what happened with his investigation into the Dolphins locker room?

I, for one, am almost hoping Goodell tries to suspend Brady for this (think I posted the same about BB hundreds of posts ago). Not because I think Brady wasn't involved—I think it's more probable than not that he generally was—but because it puts Goodell right back in the spotlight – where he is so, so bad.

Any commissioner with a hint of leadership would have told the Colts to go pound sand when they came complaining about this originally – citing the sordid history of gamesmanship in the NFL and the fact they were being sore losers with a history of rule violations of their own. Then, he should have picked up the phone and told Kraft that he was sending his team a private memo instructing his team that they would be held publicly accountable for any violations of game ball pressure should they be discovered at any point. Instead he let the inmates run the asylum.

Suspend Brady, Roger. I dare you.

Corsi · May 6, 2015

Smiling Joe Hesketh said:
I've met WBV, he's a decent guy but I think he's wrong in this case. We'll all get over it.

And you most certainly did say something inflammatory, insinuating that because one of the guys listed as an author on the report is a Giants fan the contents of the report are not to be trusted. And I said I think that's nonsense.

I said FWIW. I didn't say his findings were not to be trusted. Again, do not put words in my mouth.

DennyDoyle'sBoil · May 6, 2015

dcdrew10 said:
You know what, I've already at the point of "F*ck it." with Ballghazi. The Pats beat even more snot out of the Colts with the balls properly inflated, dealt with the scrutiny and media pressure for two weeks before the Super Bowl and then went out and won one of the most excited Super Bowls of all time against a team that people were getting ready to anoint as one of the greatest defenses of all time. That is going to be lost in all of this to the average fan. They will quickly forget that Brady lead the Pats down the field and hammered the best secondary (HA!) in the NFL for a winning touchdown. The only reason it might not be forgotten is Butler's INT on what a lot of people are calling a bad play call.

It's going to be interesting to see what the reaction is here, going forward. I think this is going to dissipate fairly quickly after Goodell issues his discipline. The report is no worse than the assumptions that were made for weeks after the initial reports, so we've already kind of been through that cycle. In fact, it's a little better. Brady retains plausible deniability. How we as the fans of the team feel about him is sort of up to us, but most of us will probably not be too troubled, because of the obvious disparity in the way the Patriots are treated. Haters will forever hate, and the guys who want to say that things are tainted, can forever do it.

MarcSullivaFan · May 6, 2015

Well, tallying up the prediction contest in a few days isn't going to be a ton of fun.

I don't see any way the Pats lose a pick. Report is pretty clear that the organization itself did nothing wrong. Brady's going to get a suspension and fine IMHO.

tims4wins · May 6, 2015

Rudy Pemberton said:
What's the penalty for this kind of infraction again? How did we get to talking about suspensions and fines much greater than that?

$25K IIRC

ivanvamp · May 6, 2015

Just to remind everyone: The Patriots put up 28 points in the Super Bowl on the league's #1 defense, with Tom Brady throwing for 328 yards, 4 touchdowns, and setting a Super Bowl record with 37 completions, while winning the MVP.

All with footballs that he wasn't allowed to touch before the game.

Hagios · May 6, 2015

I can't wait for Doyel's column: Vacate the SB.

Sadly, I think the Indy media are closer to the mainstream of the country than the NE media.

YTF · May 6, 2015

Jettisoned

654 posts

Posted Today, 01:55 PM

YTF, on 06 May 2015 - 1:52 PM, said:

YTF said:
So to recap.... The team probably did something that the quarterback likely knew about and now he might be disciplined.

Nope. If you're asking for a tl;dr summary then just say that.

Perhaps I should have emphasized the words probably, likely and might, but I thought the sarcasm would be clear. Just should have gone with something more obvious such as "This report is just utter garbage."

LuckyBen · May 6, 2015

Smiling Joe Hesketh said:
You're awfully sore about not being the first to report this. Stop acting like a child. Saying "OMG the law partner hates the Pats!" is the worst kind of infantile homerism. Christ.

In fairness, biases do exist. I've seen judges cheat the law for relatives and some over punish for other reasons. Pats hatred is very real, though I think this report is more biased towards the NFL.

Yossarian · May 6, 2015

It seriously rankles me that the report went after Brady for not turning over his text messages. "Hey, Tom, you're one of the highest-profile athletes in the world, and we're a law firm paid to do an investigation that the whole world is watching. Oh, by the way, this report will be released publicly. Now, would you mind turning over all your texts to us? Scout's honor, we'll sift through all of them but only include the ones that are "relevant" to the investigation. Now, haven't we put your mind at ease?"

ivanvamp · May 6, 2015

The ovation Tom Brady will get for the first home game of this coming season will be unlike anything we've ever seen before.

FL4WL3SS · May 6, 2015

Yossarian said:
It seriously rankles me that the report went after Brady for not turning over his text messages. "Hey, Tom, you're one of the highest-profile athletes in the world, and we're a law firm paid to do an investigation that the whole world is watching. Oh, by the way, this report will be released publicly. Now, would you mind turning over all your texts to us? Scout's honor, we'll sift through all of them but only include the ones that are "relevant" to the investigation. Now, haven't we put your mind at ease?"

But that's not what happened at all. They asked him for relevant texts that he could hand pick himself and he refused (rightfully).

TheRealness · May 6, 2015

Smiling Joe Hesketh said:
I've met WBV, he's a decent guy but I think he's wrong in this case. We'll all get over it.

And you most certainly did say something inflammatory, insinuating that because one of the guys listed as an author on the report is a Giants fan the contents of the report are not to be trusted. And I said I think that's nonsense.

I think you're wroong here SJH. WBV and I agree on the "impartiality" in this case, because we deal with lawyers who are hired to argue things who find ways to argue them. They are paid to do that, so they do.

The fact the guy is a Giants fan may lead into an assumption of confirmation bias on his part in reviewing the evidence, but Corsi doesn't even say that.

Calm down.

joe dokes · May 6, 2015

Yossarian said:
It seriously rankles me that the report went after Brady for not turning over his text messages. "Hey, Tom, you're one of the highest-profile athletes in the world, and we're a law firm paid to do an investigation that the whole world is watching. Oh, by the way, this report will be released publicly. Now, would you mind turning over all your texts to us? Scout's honor, we'll sift through all of them but only include the ones that are "relevant" to the investigation. Now, haven't we put your mind at ease?"

Someone posted something upthread that said the NFL would let Brady's lawyers do the initial sifting. So its not a point in Brady's favor.

Stitch01 · May 6, 2015

Brady fined 25,000. Organization fined $250,000 and stripped of a 4th round pick for "failure to follow proper procedures".

Hoya81 · May 6, 2015

Yossarian said:
It seriously rankles me that the report went after Brady for not turning over his text messages. "Hey, Tom, you're one of the highest-profile athletes in the world, and we're a law firm paid to do an investigation that the whole world is watching. Oh, by the way, this report will be released publicly. Now, would you mind turning over all your texts to us? Scout's honor, we'll sift through all of them but only include the ones that are "relevant" to the investigation. Now, haven't we put your mind at ease?"

The report already has the texts to Jastremski from Brady. Any others are probably not relevant.

Van Everyman · May 6, 2015

If only McNally had, like Tom, sent his texts through his own private server.

scott bankheadcase · May 6, 2015

WayBackVazquez said:
If Paul Weiss thinks the NFL wants a finding of wrongdoing than I absolutely think Paul Weiss would do everything in its power to conclude there was wrongdoing, especially in working with Exponent.

This is probably correct. But saying that one partner is a Giants fan so he's out to screw the Pats because go big blue, is kinda ridiculous.

Stitch01 · May 6, 2015

Someone else mentioned the NFLPA probably told Tom to tell Wells to shove it up his ass (rightfully)

Corsi · May 6, 2015

scott bankheadcase said:
This is probably correct. But saying that one partner is a Giants fan so he's out to screw the Pats because go big blue, is kinda ridiculous.

I did not say this.

Hoya81 · May 6, 2015

joe dokes said:
Someone posted something upthread that said the NFL would let Brady's lawyers do the initial sifting. So its not a point in Brady's favor.

It's a no win situation. He would have been accused of deleting anything incriminating, and otherwise harmless jokes/sarcasm would be taken as gospel.

Van Everyman · May 6, 2015

Stitch01 said:
Someone else mentioned the NFLPA probably told them to tell Wells to shove it up his ass (rightfully)

But why didn't the NFLP tell Incognito or Martin the same then?

#DFG: Canceling the Noise

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