NFL Coaching Changes: Chips a'Hoy

Tony C

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Chip Kelly to SF per Schefter
Was hoping for this. That should be some fun --will he want to keep Kaep? will he co-exist with Baalke? Just a guess, but I figure with all the retirements the 49ers have some good cap space.

Ingredients for the cake they're baking there to do all sorts of crazy things, good and bad.
 

Super Nomario

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Was hoping for this. That should be some fun --will he want to keep Kaep? will he co-exist with Baalke? Just a guess, but I figure with all the retirements the 49ers have some good cap space.

Ingredients for the cake they're baking there to do all sorts of crazy things, good and bad.
Their roster is terrible. They actually outperformed their Pythagorean W/L by 1.2 wins last year. 29th in offensive NY/A, 30th in defensive NY/A. Blech.

Probably some cap space to work with, especially if/when they move on from Kaepernick, but free agency is the worst way to build a team. They haven't gotten much from recent drafts and need a major talent injection.
 

DanoooME

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Was hoping for this. That should be some fun --will he want to keep Kaep? will he co-exist with Baalke? Just a guess, but I figure with all the retirements the 49ers have some good cap space.

Ingredients for the cake they're baking there to do all sorts of crazy things, good and bad.
Hiring Chip is probably the only action that raises more questions than it answers.

They've already stripped a lot of talent from the Niners roster, so there isn't much further to fall for them. The big question is will they build back up in a way that makes the team effective. And that's what will make the Baalke/Kelly relationship REALLY interesting. This could go anywhere from back to the playoffs to a landfill fire (much bigger than a dumpster fire).
 
Dec 21, 2015
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Also, [Coughlin] had 4 seasons with 10 wins or more in 12 years. Not sure he is that good of a coach. Can't pin it all on the GM.
The standard deviation of NFL teams' wins is 3.12, and the mean is of course 8. You would thus expect a team to have 10 or more wins zscore( 2 / 3.12 ) = ~26% of the time, or 3 times in 12 seasons. So, Coughlin out-performed.

You should be less sure of the times when you're not sure.
 

coremiller

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As a 49ers fan, I'm excited for this. Not only was the 2015 team bad, they were also boring and conservative and refused to take risks or do anything unconventional. I'm not sure Chip Kelly is going to work out in SF, but at least they'll be interesting.
 

crystalline

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Early speculation is that he will hire McDaniels as his head coach
There are heavy rumors out there that the Bucs are waiting to interview and are highly interested in both McDaniels and Matt Patricia
In 48 hours, it went from the Patriots keeping both of their coordinators to possibly losing both of them.
Is the speculation that those teams are interested in McDaniels and Patricia, or that McDaniels and Patricia are interested in them?

Big difference.
 

Silverdude2167

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The standard deviation of NFL teams' wins is 3.12, and the mean is of course 8. You would thus expect a team to have 10 or more wins zscore( 2 / 3.12 ) = ~26% of the time, or 3 times in 12 seasons. So, Coughlin out-performed.

You should be less sure of the times when you're not sure.
This is all great, but the point is he was a head coach for 12 seasons.

Right now here is the tenure of coaches and their winning percentages who were hired before 2010.

BB - 15 years - .73 (damn)
Marvin Lewis - 12 years - .541
Mike McCarthy - 9 years - .653
Sean Peyon - 9 years - .604
Mike Tomlin - 8 years - .639
John Harbaugh - 7 years - .602

Tom Coughlin- 12 years - .531

So outside of Marvin Lewis who everyone thinks would have been fired at some point if not for his cheap owner, everyone has above an .604 winning percentage in their 7+ years with their current team.
Every other coach outside of these 6(!!) have been a head coach for 5 years or less. Coughlin's teams got hot at the right times to prevent him from getting fired, but a .531 win percentage over 12 years leads to an opinion of him not being a good head coach. Slightly out-performing basic statistics does not make him a good coach, it makes him a coach who would have been fired sooner if not for Justin Tuck and Good Eli.
 
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soxhop411

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Ann Killion ‏@annkillion 12m12 minutes ago
Chip Kelly urine-tested his players every day in Philly http://www.sfgate.com/49ers/article/Chip-Kelly-urine-tested-his-players-every-day-in-6759210.php?cmpid=twitter-desktop… via @SFGate

Here's something 49ers players might be less-than-thrilled to learn about Chip Kelly: When he was the Eagles coach, his players underwent daily urine tests.

According to a Washington Post profile from July 2015, Kelly had plastic urine sample cups waiting at each player's locker every morning. Players received the results of their urine tests, along with heart-rate tests and an "iPad soreness and mood survey," in a daily assessment. Kelly also asked players to keep track of their sleeping habits.

Not all players appreciated Kelly's constant testing and analysis. One former player called it "Orwellian."
How has the NFLPA not thrown a fit?
 
Dec 21, 2015
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This is all great, but the point is he was a head coach for 12 seasons.
That's a "point"? I'd call that a "fact", and add that it's irrelevant without context.

Right now here is the tenure of coaches and their winning percentages who were hired before 2010.

BB - 15 years - .73 (damn)
Marvin Lewis - 12 years - .541
Mike McCarthy - 9 years - .653
Sean Peyon - 9 years - .604
Mike Tomlin - 8 years - .639
John Harbaugh - 7 years - .602

Tom Coughlin- 12 years - .531

So outside of Marvin Lewis who everyone thinks would have been fired at some point if not for his cheap owner, everyone has above an .604 winning percentage in their 7+ years with their current team.
Right now!

You offered your opinion that Coughlin was "not that good of a coach", and for evidence, cited a number (fraction of years with 10+ wins) that provided evidence for the opposite conclusion.

If it's your position that Coughlin is not one of the top 6 coaches in the NFL today (a reasonable position, though I might argue about Lewis), and that only top-6 head coaches can be considered "good", then we're talking two different languages.

Every other coach outside of these 6(!!) have been a head coach for 5 years or less. Coughlin's teams got hot at the right times to prevent him from getting fired, but a .531 win percentage over 12 years leads to an opinion of him not being a good head coach. Slightly out-performing basic statistics does not make him a good coach, it makes him a coach who would have been fired sooner if not for Justin Tuck and Good Eli.
Belichick would have been fired sooner if not for Brady, Bruschi and Seymour. McCarthy would have been fired sooner if not for Rodgers and Clay Matthews. John Harbaugh... oh whatever, you get my point. If you make an argument that a coach's teams would have sucked were it not for his best players, the logical conclusion of that argument is that all coaches suck. That's not a useful way to evaluate them.

I don't know what you mean by "basic statistics". However, let me simplify my point for you: 8 wins is an average season. 10 wins is meaningfully above average; the average coach only gets there 1 out of 4 seasons. Having a meaningfully-above-average season, at a meaningfully-above-average frequency, would be a pretty decent working definition of "being good".
 
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Silverdude2167

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Belichick would have been fired sooner if not for Brady, Bruschi and Seymour. McCarthy would have been fired sooner if not for Rodgers and Clay Matthews. John Harbaugh... oh whatever, you get my point. If you make an argument that a coach's teams would have sucked were it not for his best players, the logical conclusion of that argument is that all coaches suck. That's not a useful way to evaluate them.
This is not the argument. He was on the hot seat both Superbowl years and won those Superbowls because good Eli showed up and Justin Tuck abused Logan Mankins. He never would have made it to 12 years without two crazy SB runs.
 

johnmd20

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Yeah, if the qualifier is "good", Couglin was good and in many cases better than good. Was he the best coach of the last decade? No. But he won two super bowls. That's definitely at least good.
 

FL4WL3SS

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This is all great, but the point is he was a head coach for 12 seasons.

Right now here is the tenure of coaches and their winning percentages who were hired before 2010.

BB - 15 years - .73 (damn)
Marvin Lewis - 12 years - .541
Mike McCarthy - 9 years - .653
Sean Peyon - 9 years - .604
Mike Tomlin - 8 years - .639
John Harbaugh - 7 years - .602

Tom Coughlin- 12 years - .531

So outside of Marvin Lewis who everyone thinks would have been fired at some point if not for his cheap owner, everyone has above an .604 winning percentage in their 7+ years with their current team.
Every other coach outside of these 6(!!) have been a head coach for 5 years or less. Coughlin's teams got hot at the right times to prevent him from getting fired, but a .531 win percentage over 12 years leads to an opinion of him not being a good head coach. Slightly out-performing basic statistics does not make him a good coach, it makes him a coach who would have been fired sooner if not for Justin Tuck and Good Eli.
Actually, it was 2 lucky catches and a Welker drop.
 

johnmd20

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This is not the argument. He was on the hot seat both Superbowl years and won those Superbowls because good Eli showed up and Justin Tuck abused Logan Mankins. He never would have made it to 12 years without two crazy SB runs.
Exactly. You make your own case. He was a good coach. But not an exemplary one.
 

crystalline

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He was on the hot seat both Superbowl years and won those Superbowls because good Eli showed up and Justin Tuck abused Logan Mankins. He never would have made it to 12 years without two crazy SB runs.
He won those Superbowls in part because he out-game-planned Bill Belichick. Luck is the residue of design.

Do you remember the intentional 12-men-on-the-field penalty to seal the game?

In a small sample, Coughlin has shown he is as good as anyone at getting his teams prepared to play big games, as reflected in his two Super Bowl wins against favored teams.

He may be slightly worse at running a program over a long period of time, as reflected in his worse regular season record than the six best coaches in the league.

But to your earlier point that he's not a good coach-- those six better coaches are not available to be hired. A team like Philly seems much better off choosing one of the top coaches of the last ten years (as evidenced by his long tenure- bad coaches get fired faster) than rolling the dice on someone new. An unknown coach if given 12 years with the Giants may well have ended up with way worse than a 0.531 record.
 

crystalline

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If memory serves, that 12th man was Justin Tuck running towards the sideline with his helmet off.
Huh.

http://www.slate.com/articles/sports/sports_nut/features/2011/nfl_2011/super_bowl/giants_patriots_super_bowl_did_new_york_put_12_men_on_the_field_on_purpose_for_brady_s_first_hail_mary_.html

.Some viewers are wondering if we didn't witness a bit of gamesmanship from Tom Coughlin and Perry Fewell—cheating within the rules. If you were watching on TV, it certainly looked purposeful. NBC never showed a true replay of the snap, only a freeze-frame of 12 Giants defenders, clearly numbered and labeled, spaced out as if they all meant to be there. But rewatching the clip, you can see that the defender at the top of the field isn't a cornerback; it's lineman Justin Tuck, helmet off, trying to hustle off the field

I was watching on TV.




In any case my point stands that Coughlin got his team ready to beat a favored team in a big game, twice. Luck is the residue of design. If I were Philly I'd might well prefer Coughlin to Adam Gase - it's known that Coughlin is fairly good. And Gase might be good or might turn out to be the next Mornihnweg or Weis. We tend to overvalue the unknown.
 

E5 Yaz

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If you say "luck is the residue of design" one more time, Beetlejuice appears
 

86spike

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So if TB is all in on the Welcome Back Koetter angle... they'll probably interview one of the darker complexion coaches on the staff first to satisfy the Rooney Rule and then announce Koetter's promotion.

That leaves 6 other open HC jobs. Anybody care to make some guesses?

I'm thinking:

Philly: Adam Gase
NY Giants: Doug Marrone
Cleveland: Teryl Austin
Miami: Hue Jackson
SF: Chip Kelly
Tennessee: Josh McDaniels
I suck at this prediction thing. Got Chip right and I still think McDamnit goes to the Titans once he's able to. The other four were whiffs tho!
 

loshjott

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Actually, if Coughlin had lost both those SBs he wouldn't have been fired. More accurate is to say he saved his job by the way they made it to the playoffs then thru the NFC by the skin of their teeth both seasons.
 

AB in DC

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All this means that Dirk Koetter is left without a seat at the head coaches table. There are heavy rumors out there that the Bucs are waiting to interview and are highly interested in both McDaniels and Matt Patricia, although if I had to guess they would prefer Patricia and keep Koetter and his staff in place for continuity with Winston. They could also pivot and hire Sean McDermott as head coach but the idea is that their search is dragging on so long because they are interested in the Patriots staff.
Tampa hired Koetter today.
 

Toe Nash

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In a small sample, Coughlin has shown he is as good as anyone at getting his teams prepared to play big games, as reflected in his two Super Bowl wins against favored teams.
What about going one and done in 05, 06, 08 (with the #1 seed), and missing the playoffs in 09 (after starting 5-0) and 10 (after starting 8-4)? Was the team really prepared for the big games down the stretch?

The Giants had really high variance which is probably the product of having an erratic QB and concentrating their strength in the defensive line for those years; when they faced a pass-heavy team with a weakness at OL they could dominate, but could struggle if they fell far behind or if the OL matched up well. It's not clear to me how much is due to Coughlin but I'm also not sure that he did anything particularly great either. Once the defensive line's stars retired, aged or left he had a hard time putting together much of a team, and that's with an above-average QB for his entire tenure.
 

E5 Yaz

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It's amazing how quickly teams started hiring white guys after one team hired a head coach of color
 

crystalline

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It's not clear to me how much is due to Coughlin but I'm also not sure that he did anything particularly great either. Once the defensive line's stars retired, aged or left he had a hard time putting together much of a team, and that's with an above-average QB for his entire tenure
Hard for me to argue with this. And the Maras agree with you. Not to mention the fact that Coughlin apparently wanted another job this year and couldn't find one (although his age means that any job would be somewhat temporary, perhaps scaring off other teams).

I do think your bar is a little high. No coach has had sustained success in the last 15 years besides Belichick. Everyone else has a high variance team where if injury luck goes well, they can compete for a title. Just goes to show how good Belichick has been, even when the league changes the rules regularly to disfavor the Pats.


Edit: also I can't believe Kelly went to SF. That is not going to end well. Do they have the patience to keep him for three years while the team stinks?
 

tims4wins

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I think SF is potentially a great fit for Chip, but I can't help but think that he would have REALLY benefited from taking a one year hiatus to re-assess everything. Even more so than, say, Rex.
 

Hendu for Kutch

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Exactly. You make your own case. He was a good coach. But not an exemplary one.
Exactly. I think what was missing before was that "not that good" does not equal "not good". He was a good coach, but certainly not a great one.

Dennis Green, who nobody would call a great coach, has a higher career winning percentage (.546 vs. .531) and took his teams to the playoffs more often than Coughlin (62% vs. 45%).

Two hot months completely wallpaper over a very extended run of mediocrity. I don't even think it's controversial if you just look at his numbers. Good, but certainly "not that good".

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/coaches/CougTo0.htm
 

Saints Rest

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To me the biggest difference lies in the number of future Hall of Famers (based on quick speculation by me) that each coach had. In four of the six coaches you cite for comparison, the coach had/has a HOF QB, and in 3 of those 4, that QB is in almost all likelihood, a slam-dunk, first-ballot, top 10 of all time (and I wouldn't be at all surprised if Big Ben ends in that category as well).

Harbaugh didn't have a HOF QB (although Flacco has a shot with a decent number of years left), but he did have two first-ballot HOFers on D, either of whom could be easily argued as top 3 at his position all-time.

Coughlin and Lewis both seem to have muddled thru, just above .530, with much more limited rosters, at least in terms of HOF level talent.

This is all great, but the point is he was a head coach for 12 seasons.

Right now here is the tenure of coaches and their winning percentages who were hired before 2010.

BB - 15 years - .73 (damn) HOF: TB12, (aka GOAT), Gronk
Marvin Lewis - 12 years - .541 HOF: No one???
Mike McCarthy - 9 years - .653 HOF: Aaron Rodgers, maybe Clay Matthews
Sean Peyon - 9 years - .604 HOF: Drew Brees
Mike Tomlin - 8 years - .639 HOF: Big Ben, maybe James Harrison, maybe Hines Ward
John Harbaugh - 7 years - .602 HOF: Ed Reed, Ray Lewis, maybe Haloti Ngata, maybe Flacco

Tom Coughlin- 12 years - .531 HOF: maybe Eli? Probably Michael Strahan

So outside of Marvin Lewis who everyone thinks would have been fired at some point if not for his cheap owner, everyone has above an .604 winning percentage in their 7+ years with their current team.
Every other coach outside of these 6(!!) have been a head coach for 5 years or less. Coughlin's teams got hot at the right times to prevent him from getting fired, but a .531 win percentage over 12 years leads to an opinion of him not being a good head coach. Slightly out-performing basic statistics does not make him a good coach, it makes him a coach who would have been fired sooner if not for Justin Tuck and Good Eli.
 
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Keeping Caldwell gives Quinn an extra year of rope. He assesses for a season, then fires Caldwell and hits re-set for 2017.

Edit fuck off autocorrect. "Then" is a word.
 

pappymojo

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I would like to see his first 8 quarter-seasons. I bet it shows an almost interesting almost-pattern.
 

PedroKsBambino

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Biggest 'loser' of this HC derby has to be Doug Marrone, right? Quit in Buffalo, interviewed a bunch of spots this offseason, and likely stuck with coordinator/position roles now. Perhaps back to college?