He only had one?I think Baker's drink of choice was stronger than port.
He only had one?I think Baker's drink of choice was stronger than port.
Houston has completely imploded this year (we'd better be getting Cade out of this), and he no longer has Harden to create open looks for him. But in Boston with the JayCrew and Kemba he can go back to doing what he does best, hitting wide open treys and supplying decent D off the bench.House has been shooting poorly this year, but was around 38% on high volume while playing decent D for a playoff team. He wouldn’t be a major piece, but a guy who could be a competent vet 3&D wing and he’d fit under the Kanter exception.
This has been discussed a lot upthread--I think most would want him, but not at the price it would take to get Detroit remotely interested.Anyone want to bet on whether or not Jerami Grant is more than a good stats/bad team guy? I'm kind of intrigued. Also, I didn't realize that he's Horace Grant's nephew (Harvey's son).
https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/celtics-interested-in-pistons-jerami-grant-magics-nikola-vucevic-ahead-of-trade-deadline-per-report/
The Rockets are about ready to foreclose on him he’s shooting so bad for them.I’d be interested in House for cheap.
Isn’t Thompson a markedly better defender than Vucevic? Particularly in the pick and roll?Comes down to price, but I'm coming around on the Vucevic trade idea. I don't think I'd realized how good of a passer he's become... his AST rates despite playing on a garbage roster are better than either Jay, honestly he's close to Kemba.
The cap implications and acquisition cost is the obvious issue, but a scenario where the Celtics trade for Vucevic then backfill the wing with a TT or Theis trade is pretty appealing from a roster perspective. Vucevic is a better and more consistent player than I had realized on both ends, a big who can defend credibly, rebound, shoot and pass is impressive. He basically takes the best parts of Theis and Thompson's game, combines them and does them better.
Welcome to the club. This is exactly where I am at. At the risk of overselling him, you have to factor in that Orlando's roster limitations during his time there have depressed his potential production - he may well prefer to be his team's alpha in which case this is known to potential acquirers and they can adjust their price for him accordingly or simply pass. That said, his production efficiency may have a fair bit of upside if you surround him with other weapons - Terrance Ross is an ok player but obviously isn't the same as Tatum coming off PnRs (or in any way shape or form otherwise). Ditto the rest of his supporting cast.Comes down to price, but I'm coming around on the Vucevic trade idea. I don't think I'd realized how good of a passer he's become... his AST rates despite playing on a garbage roster are better than either Jay, honestly he's close to Kemba.
The cap implications and acquisition cost is the obvious issue, but a scenario where the Celtics trade for Vucevic then backfill the wing with a TT or Theis trade is pretty appealing from a roster perspective. Vucevic is a better and more consistent player than I had realized on both ends, a big who can defend credibly, rebound, shoot and pass is impressive. He basically takes the best parts of Theis and Thompson's game, combines them and does them better.
As I alluded to when discussing dribble handoffs, I want the Celtics to acquire a big man who can dribble, pass, and shoot. I outlined the value of this archetype, which I call Stretch Participator Big, in a previous article.
Where do you draw the line on price?Comes down to price, but I'm coming around on the Vucevic trade idea. I don't think I'd realized how good of a passer he's become... his AST rates despite playing on a garbage roster are better than either Jay, honestly he's close to Kemba.
The cap implications and acquisition cost is the obvious issue, but a scenario where the Celtics trade for Vucevic then backfill the wing with a TT or Theis trade is pretty appealing from a roster perspective. Vucevic is a better and more consistent player than I had realized on both ends, a big who can defend credibly, rebound, shoot and pass is impressive. He basically takes the best parts of Theis and Thompson's game, combines them and does them better.
Every metric I've seen grades Vucevic out as the better overall defender, and he's a true C.Isn’t Thompson a markedly better defender than Vucevic? Particularly in the pick and roll?
The issue with getting Vucevic and paying him that much is that you’d be spending a ton of money on him and Kemba per year and youre basically going to get slaughtered on the defensive end of the floor if you play them together.
Two 1sts and a couple of the young guys (PP, TL, Nesmith, Langford, Grant) probably won't get it done, but that's what I offer, maybe a swap too.Where do you draw the line on price?
The cost will almost certainly involve Time Lord. Frankly, his recent play, as well as that of the others, really helps the Celtics here at the deadline.Every metric I've seen grades Vucevic out as the better overall defender, and he's a true C.
Defending the roll man, TT has been better this year, Vucevic was better last year and the year before.
The money is a concern, but there is no indication in Vucevic's history that he'll get you slaughtered on the defensive end, he consistently grades out as a plus defender on some pretty weak ORL teams.
Two 1sts and a couple of the young guys (PP, TL, Nesmith, Langford, Grant) probably won't get it done, but that's what I offer, maybe a swap too.
You'd have to think that an offer of TL, Nesmith/Langford (their choice), and 2 unprotected #1's would be pretty competitive with whatever anyone else could/would offer. I would do Cellar's offer without blinking. Kevin O'Connor said in the Ringer that the Heat, Spurs, and Hornets are also very interested.The cost will almost certainly involve Time Lord. Frankly, his recent play, as well as that of the others, really helps the Celtics here at the deadline.
Again, from a macro perspective, there really is no player or pick that should be untouchable if the C's think they have the right next piece. Vucevic may well not be that player but teams that are going for it "now" don't worry about costs. The biggest risk here is that the C's aren't going to or cannot spend what it takes to get a shot at the dance. They are now at a point where they have to make some decisions that carry pretty big risks (upside as well as downside).
Yeah, I think that would be basically my offer, might throw in Grant if it got the deal done, or a swap.You'd have to think that an offer of TL, Nesmith/Langford (their choice), and 2 unprotected #1's would be pretty competitive with whatever anyone else could/would offer. I would do Cellar's offer without blinking. Kevin O'Connor said in the Ringer that the Heat, Spurs, and Hornets are also very interested.
Potentially although we'd have to see who they offered up. For instance, would the Spurs put Vassell or Keldon on the table? Figure they would have to start any offer with one of them and then probably add Lonnie Walker and the same picks. Is Keldon/Walker/picks any better than TL/Nesmith/picks? Probably comes down to preference.If Charlotte or San Antonio are serious players for Vucevic, they can probably beat any Boston offer given that they have more NBA ready players with which to trade and the value or their picks might be viewed as marginally more attractive too. Any Vucevic trade is going to hurt the acquiring team - there are no bargains to be had here.
Man, that is steep. I can't imagine it costing that much for a good, but not great player like Vuc.Two 1sts and a couple of the young guys (PP, TL, Nesmith, Langford, Grant) probably won't get it done, but that's what I offer, maybe a swap too.
Yeah, can't see Orlando trading him without a really good return. These types of offers are probably there for them in the offseason, as you'd still get 2 full years of Vucevic.Yeah, I think that would be basically my offer, might throw in Grant if it got the deal done, or a swap.
The thing is, ORL has some incentive to be tough given they can just roll into next year and see what happens given Vucevic's contract and that he hasn't said he wants out.
There really isn't one. He's not as good as Harden (though there is a case his salary and control close some of the gap), but he's way better than any non-All NBA guy traded recently (not S&T)Man, that is steep. I can't imagine it costing that much for a good, but not great player like Vuc.
What is a good comp trade we can look at?
Harris cost one young player (Shamet), a top 14 protected 1st, and the MIA unprotected 1st.There really isn't one. He's not as good as Harden (though there is a case his salary and control close some of the gap), but he's way better than any non-All NBA guy traded recently (not S&T)
Looking back at something like the Tobias Harris deal though (not as good or as valuable), makes me think I'm under-selling him, probably takes 3 1sts and 3 of the young guys, minimum
Yeah I tend to think the best version of recent Celtics offenses has been the one that heavily featured Al as the big facilitator—the option tree is just so much bigger with a guy like that as opposed to even someone like Theis who is a credible shooter. Gordon sort of took that role on to a degree but fate was uninterested.Welcome to the club. This is exactly where I am at. At the risk of overselling him, you have to factor in that Orlando's roster limitations during his time there have depressed his potential production - he may well prefer to be his team's alpha in which case this is known to potential acquirers and they can adjust their price for him accordingly or simply pass. That said, his production efficiency may have a fair bit of upside if you surround him with other weapons - Terrance Ross is an ok player but obviously isn't the same as Tatum coming off PnRs (or in any way shape or form otherwise). Ditto the rest of his supporting cast.
Also, I don't know this author but its an interesting, well supported article. I buy what they are selling.
AD cost a guaranteed top 4 pick and two guys MUCH MUCH better than any young guy the Celtics can offer.Harris cost one young player (Shamet), a top 14 protected 1st, and the MIA unprotected 1st.
3 firsts and 3 young guys is what it cost to get AD
When Harris was traded he was 4 years younger than Vuc is now, and was putting up 21/8 while shooting 43% from three. Harris plays a more important position and had some upside still associated with him. Vuc is what he is and is 30 years old. The contract situation certainly tips in favor of Vuc though.Vucevic is both much better than Harris and has a much better contract.
Yes he was younger, and maybe someone thought he had upsid, but Vuc is a better player.When Harris was traded he was 4 years younger than Vuc is now, and was putting up 21/8 while shooting 43% from three. Harris plays a more important position and had some upside still associated with him. Vuc is what he is and is 30 years old. The contract situation certainly tips in favor of Vuc though.
I do think the package for Vuc will be closer to what LA got for Harris rather than three picks and three young players
Player | TS% | 3pt% | TRB% | AST% | TOV% | USG | OBPM | DBPM | 3PA |
Harris | .605 | .414 | 9.6 | 14.3 | 10.3 | 23.5 | 2.6 | -0.2 | 5.3 |
Vucecic | .571 | .412 | 17.8 | 21.1 | 7.2 | 29.4 | 5.9 | 0.1 | 6.5 |
maybe, on the other hand, Jrue Holiday got 2 picks, 2 swaps and 2 pretty good veteran players and that was on a shorter deal.You guys might be right that 3 picks plus young players is the price for Vuc, but we'll never know if that's true because no GM would pay that.
I’m with you. Three likely late picks isn’t a huge ask when you’re not giving over first tier young guys. Maybe they love Rob (though he’s going to need to get paid soon enough and part of the reason for moving Vucevic is to free Bamba) but I can’t imagine the rest of our young guys are all that attractive to them. PP has been good, but he’s older than Fultz and Anthony. They could use a young wing, so I guess there’s a shot they’re interested in Romeo or Nesmith, but I’d think they could find something they like better.maybe, on the other hand, Jrue Holiday got 2 picks, 2 swaps and 2 pretty good veteran players and that was on a shorter deal.
Orlando shouldn't trade Vuc for 2 late firsts and not good young guys is the thing. They need to hold out for either 2 picks 1 of which is good and young guys, 2 picks and at least 1 GOOD young player, or 3 picks.
The point is less that the asking price is 3 firsts and young players, it's that the price for the Celtics is likely that because we don't have good picks or particularly good young players. We don't have any former high lotto picks to offer, we don't really have any good contributors now, except TL, but he loses value due to lack of rookie deal years left.
What is the best piece we have to offer? That's the issue, you can't just say.. X number of picks and X number of young guys, there are variants on each, and the Celtics don't have any of the good ones, so they need to try to win with quantity.
Good teams these days are all paying up for talent and/or making levered signings where one player effectively fetches several other stars. In fact, this is how the the three current top favorites for the title have been built.If the Celtics are going to trade multiple first round picks, I'd rather they do what good teams do and wait for an All-NBA player to demand a trade and offer pennies on the dollar. I'm thinking of Beal or Towns.
What's the ranking criteria?Good teams these days are all paying up for talent and/or making levered signings where one player effectively fetches several other stars. In fact, this is how the the three current top favorites for the title have been built.
Look at the top teams on this list, aside from the Warriors who obviously don't have Thompson and are paying for the past decade, all the adult teams are absolutely not paying pennies on the dollar in terms of talent acquisition or salaries. To me, there is a glaring absence here (I get that the Hayward departure is a factor) and we really cannot ignore it given the core talent in Boston.
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The problem here is that both Beal and Towns are in their prime and early prime with a ton of demand. Nobody is acquiring either for pennies on the dollar.If the Celtics are going to trade multiple first round picks, I'd rather they do what good teams do and wait for an All-NBA player to demand a trade and offer pennies on the dollar. I'm thinking of Beal or Towns.
Yeah the Jrue and AD deals are completely different animals, because they were both meant to appease an alpha (nevermind that AD is a top 10 player).The Jrue deal is such its own animal that I am unsure it should be used as a comp. That deal was so much about keeping Giannis that NO could pretty much name their price
I don't think it happens, for two reasons... 1, I think ORL would rather either keep him or take an offer with a better centerpiece, 2. Ainge has been very reluctant to make a deal he thinks is an overpay.Yeah the Jrue and AD deals are completely different animals, because they were both meant to appease an alpha (nevermind that AD is a top 10 player).
Probably not an easy comp out there because Vuc is a very good player on a good contract who hasn't demanded a trade, unless there's some other team out there desperately wants a Robin for their Batman.
I think that CD is right that the price will be high. And sure, we should start consolidating assets here. But 3 firsts plus young guys for Vuc seems like a shitty idea to me. It will be pretty fucking surprising if that happens.
I agree with pretty much all of this. Hard part is basically giving away the chance that one of those guys turns into something special. And if you struck out on all of the guys, then at least you had the picks (which are probably closer to the lottery than not, if you struck out on everyone).To me the thing is... if you can make the tax work, Trading three 1sts for Vuc makes it a lot more likely you win a title in the next 3-5 years than any of those assets. The odds are none of those pieces become a top 3 player on a Championship team. Vuc could easily be the 3rd man on your title team.
If you think that Tatum and Brown are good bets to improve a decent bit further (the Celtics only real path to a title anyway), then it makes some sense to go bird-in-the-hand for this phase.I agree with pretty much all of this. Hard part is basically giving away the chance that one of those guys turns into something special. And if you struck out on all of the guys, then at least you had the picks (which are probably closer to the lottery than not, if you struck out on everyone).
Vuc is damn good, and he's a bird in hand for sure. Maybe you're talking me into it. Danny seems to be able to find random guys to fill out rosters just fine. Just feels like a big bet, and it feels like bets this big should be made on guys better than Vuc.
Aside from KG, who was a generational talent, has Ainge ever made a significant investment on a 5? You can make a case for Horford but he had Amir and then Baynes starting with him while he played a bunch of 4.I agree with pretty much all of this. Hard part is basically giving away the chance that one of those guys turns into something special. And if you struck out on all of the guys, then at least you had the picks (which are probably closer to the lottery than not, if you struck out on everyone).
Vuc is damn good, and he's a bird in hand for sure. Maybe you're talking me into it. Danny seems to be able to find random guys to fill out rosters just fine. Just feels like a big bet, and it feels like bets this big should be made on guys better than Vuc.
So was AD. And Paul George. And James Harden. All three were traded for a few good but not great young players and all the first round picks and swaps for the rest of the decade. Because the players colluded to narrow the field down to one and only one team.The problem here is that both Beal and Towns are in their prime and early prime with a ton of demand. Nobody is acquiring either for pennies on the dollar.
The first problem here is that in all of those deals, a lot of the picks and swaps come when key players on the star-acquiring team will be in serious decline or retired. In the Celtics case, teams are pricing in Tatum+Brown being there for as far out as you can do picks/swaps (7 years), while being in their primes the whole time. Barring total disaster, it's hard to project the Celtics ever conveying anything juicy.So was AD. And Paul George. And James Harden. All three were traded for a few good but not great young players and all the first round picks and swaps for the rest of the decade. Because the players colluded to narrow the field down to one and only one team.
That's what the Celtics have to hope happens.
I'm willing to accept the Vuc gives the Cs a better chance to win the title in the next couple of years but really, how big is that chance? The issue is if whoever the Cs empty their assets to get better be the Right Guy because there are no more assets.It's an interesting question because, sometimes the best thing than can happen is "losing" a trade, because in the NBA a single player is more key than a bunch of decent ones. Odds are if we traded say.... Grant, TL, Nesmith and 3 late 1sts for Vuc.... none of those 6 players will be better than him, and even if all of them turn out to be above expected value.... you'd still probably rather have an All-Star caliber player than a bunch of good rotation players.
To me the thing is... if you can make the tax work, Trading three 1sts for Vuc makes it a lot more likely you win a title in the next 3-5 years than any of those assets. The odds are none of those pieces become a top 3 player on a Championship team. Vuc could easily be the 3rd man on your title team.
I assume you only give up 2 of those 3.I'm willing to accept the Vuc gives the Cs a better chance to win the title in the next couple of years but really, how big is that chance? The issue is if whoever the Cs empty their assets to get better be the Right Guy because there are no more assets.
Vuc might be an upgrade but I doubt he's upgrade enough and if the Cs are giving up Romeo and AN they are selling low on both. I mean it's not so hard to squint and see that next year maybe RL, AN, and TL have all increased their trade value.
Well, we don’t know if they’re selling low on both. If I’m a skeptical Magic fan, I see an injured shooting guard who can’t shoot and a mid-round pick who hasn’t shown much beyond energy. I think those two in particular plus a couple of (likely late round) picks is a pretty bad return for an All Star with 2.5 years left on a good contract. If I’m John Hammond, I’m looking hard elsewhere, and I think OKC, for one, could pretty easily put together a more attractive offer.I'm willing to accept the Vuc gives the Cs a better chance to win the title in the next couple of years but really, how big is that chance? The issue is if whoever the Cs empty their assets to get better be the Right Guy because there are no more assets.
Vuc might be an upgrade but I doubt he's upgrade enough and if the Cs are giving up Romeo and AN they are selling low on both. I mean it's not so hard to squint and see that next year maybe RL, AN, and TL have all increased their trade value.
At some point you have to play a hand though. While you’re right that RL, AN, and TL all are likely to improve, what are the odds than any of them ever come close to the value of Vuc over the next 2+ years? Pretty small, IMO.I'm willing to accept the Vuc gives the Cs a better chance to win the title in the next couple of years but really, how big is that chance? The issue is if whoever the Cs empty their assets to get better be the Right Guy because there are no more assets.
Vuc might be an upgrade but I doubt he's upgrade enough and if the Cs are giving up Romeo and AN they are selling low on both. I mean it's not so hard to squint and see that next year maybe RL, AN, and TL have all increased their trade value.
Is OKC really interested in a guy who turns 31 this October though? They obviously could beat any offer the Celtics make but...would they want to? Collins would seemingly make a lot more sense for them.Well, we don’t know if they’re selling low on both. If I’m a skeptical Magic fan, I see an injured shooting guard who can’t shoot and a mid-round pick who hasn’t shown much beyond energy. I think those two in particular plus a couple of (likely late round) picks is a pretty bad return for an All Star with 2.5 years left on a good contract. If I’m John Hammond, I’m looking hard elsewhere, and I think OKC, for one, could pretty easily put together a more attractive offer.
Why would OKC push their chips in for Vuc though? I can't see that. They are a couple years away from even thinking about contending, and Vuc's timeline is nowI think OKC, for one, could pretty easily put together a more attractive offer.
I think MIA is the sneaky team for him... Olynyk, Precious, Herro and Harkless works under the cap. Those are better young assets, then add some picks. Hornets maybe with Graham or Rozier as the best player plus picks?Well, we don’t know if they’re selling low on both. If I’m a skeptical Magic fan, I see an injured shooting guard who can’t shoot and a mid-round pick who hasn’t shown much beyond energy. I think those two in particular plus a couple of (likely late round) picks is a pretty bad return for an All Star with 2.5 years left on a good contract. If I’m John Hammond, I’m looking hard elsewhere, and I think OKC, for one, could pretty easily put together a more attractive offer.
Yeah, sounds like Vucevic is only available if you're willing to overpay. Gordon doesn't really move the needle for this team. Puts up decent numbers but just isn't that impactful. Fournier is a nice player and would help the team but we're not burning a good chunk of the TPE for an expiring Fournier.View: https://twitter.com/KeithSmithNBA/status/1369287633151664129
This makes me think Vucevic doesn't get moved. While Smith covers the Celtics the most, he lives in ORL and seems to have good sources there.
If Vuc isn't really available, I think the Celtics don't do much at the deadline, it's hard to see another real impact player out there. I don't think they burn the TPE on Barnes, and I don't think DET will trade Grant.