They wouldn’t need to push their chips in, it’d only take about a quarter of their stack. We would though, or close to it, so Vooch better be the right guy. More to the point, there’s a bunch of teams that have more attractive assets than we do that would be interested in a cost controlled All Star.
I have no problem consolidating assets for the right guy. I don’t think that the delta between DT/TT/TL and Vucevic makes him the right guy.
that's reasonable, though generally I think Vuc is much better than any of those 3, he's the best scorer by a truly huge extent, by far the best passer, and rebounds almost as well as TT, he rarely turns it over despite much higher usage and he can play 33 MPG which TL and DT can't. I think it's especially key since TL and DT need to get paid soon.
If the advanced stats on his defense are to be believed (3-Year D-RAPM = 1.39; http://nbashotcharts.com/rapm3?id=1598368971 plus a consistently good D-RAPTOR), he's an excellent two-way center who can spread the floor. I'd be interested to see a Kemba/Smart/Jays/Vucevic lineup.
He’s a more complete player than any of them, particularly on offense, but I don’t think that the difference in production would warrant the acquisition cost. As for salary, I’d be surprised if Theis and Williams combined end up making as much as Vucevic’s salary.
Possible, I mean that is always the debate.
I believe center is the most important defensive position in basketball by a large margin. That being the case, if a guy is a terrible defensive center I think it is generally safe to say their team defense should also be bad (if they are playing big minutes) and that is not the case for the Magic. It's a rough way to analyze it, but they are 22nd in efficiency BUT its in a tight pack in the middle and only 0.7 points per 100 behind the 14th ranked Raptors (this is using adjusted Drtg from bbref). This is a team that is not featuring a lot of defensive powerhouse wings compensating for Vucevic (and Isaac has not played this year). On that basis alone I would feel comfortable saying he is not a total liability.
Theis is going to end up at $8-10M, and TL will be $10-18M (with some chance of a leap that takes him higher).
Next problem......why in the world would either force their way to Boston to not be the man?
Yeah, it also misses a big problem with the "wait and hope someone forces their way to your team", if you do that, there is just as good a chance that one or both of your young stars who made 3 of 4 ECF, see the team miss out as it plateaus or declines and decide the window is over and it's time to join up with someone else in a more attractive situation (or market).
Unfortunately you wouldn’t ever see that lineup. They would need to lose serious salary which means Smart has to get moved into someone’s cap space next summer. And then for the next two years you’re running out Vooch, the Jay Crew, Kemba, and eight minimum salary guys.
I'm not so sure they would if the owners are willing to pay the tax. One appealing thing about Vuc is that his contract declines each year. You'd be looking at about $15-20M into the tax assuming you only send out low salary young guys, and you keep TT (unlikely).
I think he's arguing that if we make a move this year and go into the repeater, then future years get unsustainable, which is possibly true, but there is a case that you just take the shot and decide how to re-balance later.
100% agree. These windows open and close so fast and Wyc and Co. can't be cheap here. Like you said, you don't incur huge tax penalties for marginal talents (Harrison Barnes to use a recent example) but if there is a bigger deal to be had, they need to go for it. Otherwise, you run the risk of being another 2000s Phoenix Suns or 2010s OKC that gets close but can't close the deal.
It's the Jays, Walker, and the Vooch. That's going to be $115-$120 million per year for the next two years for those four players. Add in Marcus and they're already into the apron with an entire roster to fill out. If they deal for Vooch in this calendar year then there's no tax reset meaning they're going catapulting into repeater status. And all for a fourth option player that's unlikely to be happy with his role (as Hayward wasn't last year). Ideally what they need is a taller Marcus Smart, a jack of all trades player happy to let others score. In that regard Junior Nance is a much better fit (it's a pity that Boston finished one spot too low in the draft order and ended up with RJ Hunter instead).
On your first bolded, do you have any information or a link that supports it? Because I can just as easily see a 30 year old really good player who is in NBA limbo, looking at a club that is unlikely to really contend for the balance of his contract thrilled for a chance to play with better talent in meaningful games.
Weren‘t we told that there was no interest around the league in potential DPOY Myles Turner’s $18M contract during Hayward trade discussions with Indiana?
The sad reality is that we really don’t have a lot to offer a team to acquire the pieces that we really need. This is the type of “shake up” I’d expect opposed to us landing a couple of players who can be penciled in to fill exactly what we need (like PJ Brown & Cassell in 08).
Who do you think fills what we need better than Nance and Hill? Aside from getting an All Star, which seems incredibly unlikely, Ican’t think of anyone who fills the Celtics weaknesses more than Nance and Hill
I agree in general, but I'd be surprised if Nance is the guy. Altman (and seemingly everyone else in the city of Cleveland) reportedly loves him, and given his roots there, his locker room presence on a young team, and his great contract, I'd be very surprised if they move him for something that we would find palatable. I'm not saying they won't move him- reportedly a bunch of contenders are interested- but I think it's going to take more than Bernardoni's proposed package.
One point I'd make on this even if you were hoping to land a better player than Barnes(or someone similar), it would probably be worth it to grab Barnes now if you could for a reasonable price, and if someone you like better comes along in the summer you could probably flip Barnes in a deal for him since he should still have positive value.
Of course, we just had a 30-year-old really good player decide he'd rather be in NBA limbo with higher usage than a 4th option on a contender.
yes, but at the cost of the repeater tax. You'd much prefer to do that deal in the summer.
Also, there is a big difference between being the best big on a team with 2 wings and a guard and being the 3rd best wing. There's no real threat to Vucevic's role if he came here, yeah sure he'd see his usage go down some, but he'd still get plenty of opportunity being in the PnR and PnP with those guys.
Doesn't necessarily have to put them in the tax right now, and I imagine they won't go into the tax this year.
Hayward staying in Boston would affect both records. The direct swing might be pretty big.
True but it’s much more than what we hear. For years nobody has wanted to come here then suddenly Hayward and Horford both sign leading everyone to say “I told you so!”........and now that they both couldn’t wait to get out of town it’s crickets and Boston has no stigma. Never bought that and not buying it now.
So both guys chose Boston over similar offers from other teams. Then both guys chose someone other than Boston when they were offered significantly more money somewhere else. What do you think that means besides guys liking to get paid?
Meh. Both were suspiciously quiet, especially Horford, when questioned about their upcoming options. We don’t know how much Ainge would have paid but I doubt it would have been significantly less especially in the case of Hayward.
What do you think TL and Theis will sign for? I gave a pretty big range for TL (10-18), but their combined cost is very likely to be at least $18M, and probably more like $20-25M.
I think most of us accept the reports that Horford got $12M more in guaranteed money to go to PHI. That may not seem to be a lot to us but it meant something to Al.
Sounds like Horford is regretting taking the extra $12M to end his career in OKC purgatory.
He could very well be in OKC purgatory even if he signed for 12 million less. He was terrible last year. Good chance he could have been traded regardless of his contract number
He really wasn't. It was a bad team fit, and lead to him taking way more 3s as a league averagish shooter, but his numbers were otherwise not that bad. He had positive on/offs, and things like RAPTOR put him as a positive on both ends. He didn't play anywhere near what you want out of that contract, but despite the bad fit he wasn't terrible.
It only takes one team, but barring a substantial leap, I would be really surprised if TL got close to 18. His value will get depressed by his restricted status and his draft slot. As to the latter, rational or not, there is some clear anchoring that goes on in restricted free agency based on draft slot. Guys were drafted in the 20's and who have shown potential, but not established themselves in the league, do not get the same deals that top 10 picks with similar production do.
Good point on RFA, and interesting stance on draft status. His injury history (even this season) will probably be his biggest depressant. If Danny offered 4yrs for $40MM in the offseason I'd imagine TL would (and should) go for that.
