Also if WAS traded him to a contender this deadline, it’s two full years plus one stretch run. Mookie was traded in the offseason before his FA year, so one full season exactly. WAS can get a huge prospect package if they move him this deadline.
Red Sox in season discussion
- Thread starter Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat
- Start date
That is a little misleading just because Soto is indeed still under contract through 2024, so for an apples to apples comparison there, as of January 1 in their potential free-agent winter:
Soto: 26 and 2 months
Betts: 28 and 3 months
Judge: 30 and 8 months
Soto: 26 and 2 months
Betts: 28 and 3 months
Judge: 30 and 8 months
Why? Not saying I think this is right or wrong (I don't know honestly), just curious what you mean.
I don't think the comp for a Soto trade is Betts at all. It's Miguel Cabrera. Sure, it was 15 years ago, but that might be the last time a player of that caliber and that young age was traded with a couple years of control left. He and Dontrelle Willis yielded six prospects from the Tigers including Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller, and Burke Badenhop. Looking back that doesn't seem like much of a haul, but Maybin and Miller were ranked in BA's top 10 prospects that year.
This is a very clever way to quantify the question, but more interesting to me than the ratio this year, is the multi year trend. Using that same data for league average, listed as year: appearances >3 out, appearances <3 out
2015: 108, 147
2016: 112, 128
2017: 123, 143
2018: 125,144
2019: 145, 136
2020: 55, 48. Shortened bizarro year
2021: 139, 116
I'm too lazy to calculate the ratio of > or < 3 out/appearance, or to sum the annual number of appearances, but squinting at the numbers it looks like total appearances are increasing and the ratio of > to < 3 outs is trending in the direction of more outs per appearance over the last few years. The use of 2015 is purely arbitrary.
Edit: wow, I'm responding to a really old post AND the appearances aren't increasing. I need to not post while awake due to insomnia.
Last edited:
As they should, an JA makes a good point about using him for 3 stretch runs, which is why the Nats are likely making this public and he's certain to be traded.
The Athletic’s coverage has a lot on Miggy; I'm trying to remember what the assessment was of D-train’s inclusion in the deal: he was a ROY winner in 2003, was fantastic in ‘05, then returned to being good (in line with his previous seasons) in ‘06 and had a pretty disappointing ’07 before being traded. How much of that prospect haul can be attributed to him? There's also not the insignificant detail that he was traded to Detroit, a team with a long history of overpaying in big deals - a fun side note is that this deal was executed by old friend Dave Dombrowski, giving up prospects and going and getting players he had acquired while running the Marlins.
I think the bottom line is that teams are valuing prospects very differently now, so despite the haul, it will be less than we (or a trade simulator) think Soto should fetch. I guess we should be looking at teams who are contenders this year with several top prospects to deal, but off the top of my head the issue will be that most of the teams in contention are well run and looking at the value provided holistically to the whole team. After all a single player like Soto isn't able to deliver a championship on his own, otherwise the Angels would be in the middle of a dynasty.
The Sox are down to 4 players with 100+ PA and an OPS+ over 100. Three of the four (Bogaerts, JD, Vazquez) are FA’s to be.
Of the four starters to have a 100 or greater ERA+, three (Wacha, Hill, Eovaldi) have expiring contracts- the fourth (Whitlock) is now in the bullpen.
Of the four starters to have a 100 or greater ERA+, three (Wacha, Hill, Eovaldi) have expiring contracts- the fourth (Whitlock) is now in the bullpen.
Willis was the Mike Lowell of that trade, a sunk cost that the frugal Marlins wanted a bigger market to absorb as the cost of doing business. He had upside down value at that point, though there might have still been some hope that a new environment and a different pitching coach could clear his head and straighten out his mechanics.
His mechanics were always a mess though as he had one of the most violent windup in baseball, but I think it was a necessary evil as it appeared that every muscle in his body was required for the slingshot effect.. That he had the career that he had without a major injury was borderline miraculous. I half expected that the last pitch of his major league career was going to result in his hand still on the ball as it floated past the batter.
That said, just looking back at the last year in Florida and years after the trade, he had mostly with flashes of his former brilliance showing up just enough to give hope that he could have turned it around. so while he may have been the Mike Lowell of the deal, he never came close to being the contributor that Lowell (2007 WS MVP) was with the Sox.
To the point, you'd have to factor out the mop-up duty appearances for this to make sense, which is why it's so time consuming. The multi-inning work by Austin Pruitt in Oakland or Kolby Allard in Texas is qualitatively different from Michael King or Garrett Whitlock, who are typically deployed more strategically in close games.
I didn’t intend to mean that he had, only that his salary relief incentivized the Marlins to move Cabrera much like Lowell’s contract was bundled into the Beckett acquisition.
538 has the Red Sox at 2% chance to win the WS. I’d put it at more like 3% but whatever. With Soto I’d put it at maybe 4-5% but I’m guessing 538 would be more conservative.
Understood. I was just happy it gave me the chance to look up the end of Willis's career since his delivery was so unique and that he fell off the radar as he had. Plus Mike Lowell as another favorite of mine so I got to riff on two of my favorites in one post.
Yes, that's right ...the great "turnover" will likely happen this coming off season, and we will finally see Bloom's full intentions. As I know I've mentioned, IMO, Bloom has taken a hedged middle path, making just enough affordable acquisitions to be competitive, but neither really GFIN nor rebuilding (frustrating as fan). Well, rebuild it will be after 2022, and we'll see how he does it. Might the Sox organization be willing for a slow build to the next core, with a couple of losing seasons along the way, as we wait for Casas, Ceddanne, Mayer, Bello to come into their own? Or will the mandate be to be more aggressive? After a wide range of Rorschach test interpretations of Bloom's intentions so far, things will finally become clear.
A lot of Betts value is (or was) tied up in his defense, which can decline pretty quickly once he loses a step. It's already dropped off a lot in the last 2 years.
There will be no reason to do a rebuild, at least how the term is traditionally used (focus on the farm at the expense of the big league club). Bloom has done a fantastic job of turning a bottom 10 system in to a top 10 (maybe top 5) while using savvy low cost acquisitions to keep the team competitive and not bloat the payroll with bad long term contracts.
Starting this offseason, Bloom will have an almost unprecedented ability to completely remake the majority of the roster with $100M or more in available payroll and a farm system that is just starting to graduate significant prospects and has enough depth for trades without cutting off the pipeline. The Sox will definitely not be settling for several losing seasons, nor will they be in GFIN mode since that is not how smart organizations are run anymore.
As has been pointed out, the restraint from signing large contracts when they didn't have space under the chosen CBT limit does not mean Bloom's FO will never sign large contracts. If they choose not to re-sign/replace their free agents to be with legitimate players and end up with a $150M payroll, feel free to complain but I would bet heavily that will not be the case.
As has been pointed out, the restraint from signing large contracts when they didn't have space under the chosen CBT limit does not mean Bloom's FO will never sign large contracts. If they choose not to re-sign/replace their free agents to be with legitimate players and end up with a $150M payroll, feel free to complain but I would bet heavily that will not be the case.
[/QUOTE]
Well, it remains to be seen - that's all I'm saying. I'm not making a prediction one way or the other. Of course teams still GFIN, as evidence by aggressive trades at the deadline, etc. It's not all or nothing, on or off, but points along a continuum. If the level goes to 11, Bloom has been riding a smooth jazz five for a while now. Albeit, while indeed rebuilding the farm as you say (I think he's actually done a better job than the rankings give him credit for) ...we'll soon learn about his willingness to spend in one way or the other ....
EDIT: Let me add - I think it's pretty clear to all of us that Bloom did not assemble a team that could win the WS this year. Yes? He must know that. Yet neither is he acquiring assets for a future team by selling off parts (this might still happen at the deadline, let's see). So, what, precisely, is his objective with the major league team this year? Frustrating to watch him seemingly purposefully build a decent but not great team. I'd like him to be more aggressive one way or the other: acquire (and/or extend) more top level talent, or acquire even more minor league assets. If you're not gonna try to win it all in the present, then at least improve the prospects for the future.
[/QUOTE]
Well, it remains to be seen - that's all I'm saying. I'm not making a prediction one way or the other. Of course teams still GFIN, as evidence by aggressive trades at the deadline, etc. It's not all or nothing, on or off, but points along a continuum. If the level goes to 11, Bloom has been riding a smooth jazz five for a while now. Albeit, while indeed rebuilding the farm as you say (I think he's actually done a better job than the rankings give him credit for) ...we'll soon learn about his willingness to spend in one way or the other ....
EDIT: Let me add - I think it's pretty clear to all of us that Bloom did not assemble a team that could win the WS this year. Yes? He must know that. Yet neither is he acquiring assets for a future team by selling off parts (this might still happen at the deadline, let's see). So, what, precisely, is his objective with the major league team this year? Frustrating to watch him seemingly purposefully build a decent but not great team. I'd like him to be more aggressive one way or the other: acquire (and/or extend) more top level talent, or acquire even more minor league assets. If you're not gonna try to win it all in the present, then at least improve the prospects for the future.
Last edited:
I was reading a little about them recently. Even some of their fans want Trout gone because they know they can’t compete the way they’re built.
Rendon and Trout both make about $37 million. Syndegard makes $21 million. It’s not just Trout.
So, at the All Star Break the Sox are:
- 3 games above .500
-in 4th place in the division
- 16.5 games behind the Yankees
- winless in series against divisional opponents
- currently not in any playoff spot.
That has to be considered, in light of the payroll, a big disappointment.
They are a thoroughly mediocre team.
- 3 games above .500
-in 4th place in the division
- 16.5 games behind the Yankees
- winless in series against divisional opponents
- currently not in any playoff spot.
That has to be considered, in light of the payroll, a big disappointment.
They are a thoroughly mediocre team.
Since sweeping Cleveland exactly three weeks ago they're 6-14 and have gotten outscored 126-79. Coming out of the break:
3 vs Toronto
4 vs Cleveland
3 vs Milwaukee
3 at Houston
That leads them right to the trade deadline. Going to be interesting to see what happens.
3 vs Toronto
4 vs Cleveland
3 vs Milwaukee
3 at Houston
That leads them right to the trade deadline. Going to be interesting to see what happens.
They seemed to have figured it out in June and were really clicking during that 7-2 homestand and sweep of Cleveland.
Then they had to start Seabold in that first game in Toronto. Then Robles blows the save the next day because Houck wasn’t available. Everything snowballed from there.
Then they had to start Seabold in that first game in Toronto. Then Robles blows the save the next day because Houck wasn’t available. Everything snowballed from there.
After today's game we are 15th in run differential league wide and 7th in the AL. Sale is likely out for the season. If we do end up selling at the deadline, why not just throw Houck and Whitlock into the rotation to prep for next season?
What is our rotation looking like after the break? Eovaldi/Pivetta/Winckowski and then? Are Hill and Wacha good to go after the ASB? Seabold seems like he will be out for awhile with "forearm tightness".
What is our rotation looking like after the break? Eovaldi/Pivetta/Winckowski and then? Are Hill and Wacha good to go after the ASB? Seabold seems like he will be out for awhile with "forearm tightness".
They figured out that they were playing trash teams and excelled. Once they started playing good teams, they fell apart. The antIvax debacle in Toronto didn’t help, but it has been more than that.
This team was destined for the creamy middle of the American League since they broke camp with no plan B for first base and right field and a small tinder fire in the bullpen.
There are three hitters who have been consistent and two of them are free agents this winter and the other is one the year after. I doubt that they’re going to sign X or JD so I can’t imagine what a dumpster fire this team will be in 2023.
Chris Cotillo was on the pregame today and indicated Wacha and Hill would need at least a rehab start. He said he thought Pivetta had “hit a wall” and needed a break, but that may have just meant ASB.
I would guess Bello would be back up until Hill or Wacha are ready.
Maybe something like Eovaldi, Crawford, Winckowski, Bello, Pivetta coming out of the break?
(And yeah, what JMOH said).
I would guess Bello would be back up until Hill or Wacha are ready.
Maybe something like Eovaldi, Crawford, Winckowski, Bello, Pivetta coming out of the break?
(And yeah, what JMOH said).
At an uninspiring 1.5 games ahead of Baltimore in the standings, we're about to be at the sludgy bottom of the AL East.
Being at the bottom of a division where everyone is above .500 doesn't seem that "sludgy" to me.
Not saying it's a good thing, but the hyperbole around here is getting a bit ridiculous. We could be Kansas City.
Okay. Cards on the table time; what do you consider a bad season?
Because for me, the way that this top-heavy team plays uninspiring, often dumb baseball has been absolutely atrocious. You’re right, the Sox aren’t KC or Oakland or other crap teams, but they shouldn’t be. They were one game and a few innings from the World Series last year and they’ve taken a steaming dump on 2022.
Maybe last year was an aberration, IDK, and they played way over their heads. But even if true, they shouldbe better than this. I’m not sure how you can say this season is “good” or even acceptable.
We’d probably view this team much more harshly if they don’t win the season finale in Washington last year and win two playoff rounds against our two biggest rivals. Like it or not, it buys Bloom a season worth of rope.
Well, for starters, I'd say a team needs to be below .500 before you call it a bad season. I also try not to make a blanket judgement on the quality of the entire season when it's barely halfway done. Most pre-season projections had them as an 84-86 win team. 48-45 is an 84 win pace. I'd say so far the season is neither bad nor good. It's blah. It's average. It's middle of the road.
Can you explain what Bloom could have done this offseason that would have blunted the impact that
A our entire starting rotation from April is/was on the IL resulting in the Sox using a starting rotation made up entire of AAA players at one point
Xander and JDM having a huge power outage during the first half of this season when compared to the first half of last year, and there were weeks where it was pretty much Devers carrying the team to a win because the 8 other bats in the lineup were all ice cold... Thats not including injures to our offense (kikė for example)
Xander:
2021
JDM:
I think how a team is doing also needs to take into account the direction that it seems they are heading. A team that is a few games above .500 but is seeing a lot of development from young players is probably going to be more exciting to its fans than a top heavy team that is getting its best performances from players unlikely to be around much longer. A team that is winning thrilling games is going to generate more enthusiasm than one giving away a lot of winnable ones.
I guess it’s a bit subjective but does this feel like the beginning of something good or the last gasps of the Red Sox team that has averaged 94 wins the last five full, normal seasons?
It also seems like the goalposts are constantly shifting here- now some are saying 84-85 wins is ok because this team wasn’t expected to be that great but is that really the consensus? Thought the preseason predictions here by SoSh expected better than that.
Good news is that they can certainly still make the playoffs and write the ending of the story.
I guess it’s a bit subjective but does this feel like the beginning of something good or the last gasps of the Red Sox team that has averaged 94 wins the last five full, normal seasons?
It also seems like the goalposts are constantly shifting here- now some are saying 84-85 wins is ok because this team wasn’t expected to be that great but is that really the consensus? Thought the preseason predictions here by SoSh expected better than that.
Good news is that they can certainly still make the playoffs and write the ending of the story.
With Sale back on the IL, maybe for the rest of the season, the Sox have too many glaring holes to be considered a World Series contender. That’s not to say they’re a bad team. They’re a good team in a very tough division. They may take a wild card slot, but even if they do, they’re not poised to be the Yankee-slayers they were last year. The Yankees are a better team this year and the Red Sox, without significant upgrades at SP, 1B, RF and the bullpen, are worse. If they needed to improve in just one or two of those positions, I’d be optimistic about their chances in the playoffs. You can’t win a 5-game series against the Yankees without an ace and with the current bullpen.
Bloom could have investigated finding replacements for guys like Bradley and Dalbec, no? What did the Yankees give up for Carpenter? JD and Boagerts aren’t the problem. The problem is that the team is routinely starting 5-6 below average offensive players each and every night; and staffed their rotation with injury prone back of the rotation pitchers. Is anyone really shocked that Rich Hill and Michael Wacha went on the DL?Can you explain what Bloom could have done this offseason that would have blunted the impact that
A our entire starting rotation from April is/was on the IL resulting in the Sox using a starting rotation made up entire of AAA players at one point
Xander and JDM having a huge power outage during the first half of this season when compared to the first half of last year, and there were weeks where it was pretty much Devers carrying the team to a win because the 8 other bats in the lineup were all ice cold... Thats not including injures to our offense (kikė for example)
Xander:
2021
JDM:
Maybe not spend $21M on Paxton, Diekman, and Bradley and instead use it on guys who can play? Schwarber, Gausman, Rodon- the alternate options are plentiful.
Injuries happen, but the Rays are pretty hobbled and they just smoked the Sox. There’s always an excuse if you are looking for one.
The arguments by the Bloom fanboys/girls always seem to suggest that he did what he did because what else could have he done? How is that a legitimate defense?
I think it's less about moving goalposts and more that a lot of people seemed to have higher and perhaps baseless expectations of this team. I'm not particularly happy that the team is 48-45 at the ASB, but I also wasn't expecting them to have 70 wins and be leading the division by 15 games either. And it seems like expectations of the latter happening is the only thing that could lead one to see this team as an unmitigated disaster right now rather than a flawed team going through a rough stretch where injuries have decimated the rather fragile roster at exactly the wrong time.
Or maybe I'm a bad fan for not passionately reacting to every ebb and flow of the season like it's life or death.
In the preseason prediction thread, 85-89 wins was the leading vote getter.
Last edited:
Schwarber's making $19M this season, and $20M for the next three years. Gausman is making $21M this year and next, then $22M-$23M-$23M the three following years. Would you do either of those contracts?
Agreed, but slightly less hopeful than this post. I think the torrid June led some to increase their expectations, and correspondingly their disappointment these past couple weeks (I know I am disappointed the Sox didn't at least put up a fight againt NYY and TB).
Trying to remember if I picked 84 or 85 wins. Either way, I am looking pretty good right at this moment, unlike the Red Sox, who have limped into the ASB, with their defense the latest aspect of their game to begin betraying them. Add that to the lineup holes, SP injuries, and bullpen woes, leads to some serious questions as to whether the Sox will eke out the hoped for last playoff berth.
Plan B was Casas and Duran. As far as plan B's go good looking prospects is not a bad way to go.
Except they have 69 games remaining, not 59. A team with a .516 winning percentage continuing to win at that pace should not end up below .500 at the end of the season.
Three games over .500 and if they play that pace the rest of the way, they finish 3 games below .500?
Explain to me why Xander and JDM are not part of the problem when they are severely underperforming compared to the first half of last year?
If i told you before the season that Xander would put up the statline he currently has at the ASB, you would have been fine with that?
same thing with JDM.
And the Bolded is unnecessary.
Dalbec hit the cover off the ball the last few months of the season and Casas was right around the corner. So it is less about what else he could have done and more how what he did do made sense at the time.
I think it’s just a narrative you’ve created; why blame 3 of the teams 4/5 decent offensive performers and give a pass to those who have provided nothing?
bWAR
Devers 4.3
Bogaerts 3.6
Story 2.1
JD 1.5
Refsnyder 1.1
Kiki 0.3
Duran 0.1
Franchy -0.2
Verdugo -0.4
Plawecki -0.6
Shaw -0.7
Bradley -0.8
Dalbec -1.0
this isn’t exactly a master class in team building here.
Many of these issues were apparent going into the year, and have only gotten worse. Sox have scouts and prospects, why haven’t they made some roster changes? Instead we have to see the same helpless players flail away night after night.
Thankfully there is still time to fix it, but the race is going to be close, so the sooner they make some improvements, the better.