A lot of swing and miss in this lineup. Some good power but feels like a lineup that would be prone to some wild variability. Also, given how Casas looked for several months down the stretch, wondering if he should bat #3 instead of Yoshida.Attempting to answer the new thread title, if we now have a Teoscar, that almost certainly means he's in LF with Masa at DH. So with O'Neill in right, we've got an overflow in the OF with one starting spot for Duran, Abreu & Rafaela, and I have to assume at least one is getting traded, though I think with O'Neill's injury history it would be prudent to hold on to the third.
Then again, our OF is suddenly right handed, so maybe it's Refsnyder who gets a new home as having a platoon isn't urgent anymore?
Among IF, Yoshida's move to DH means one less space available to find coverage for the corners. I think it becomes extra important to find a 2B who can do that for flexibility (I'll continue to bang the Drury drum), but I also want someone on the bench who'd be comfortable spelling Casas. If Urshela's market slips, he might fit? But it doesn't seem likely to me that he can't find something better than a super sub role.
1. Duran CF L
2. Story SS R
3. Yoshida DH L
4. Devers 3B L
5. Hernandez LF R
6. Casas 1B L
7. O'Neill RF R
8. Drury 2B R
9. Wong C R
Bench: McGuire, Abreu, Urshela/Rafaela, Reyes
Also, given how Yoshida looked for several months down the stretch, wondering if he should bat #6 instead of Casas.A lot of swing and miss in this lineup. Some good power but feels like a lineup that would be prone to some wild variability. Also, given how Casas looked for several months down the stretch, wondering if he should bat #3 instead of Yoshida.
Were lurkers promoted to New Members?Broken out from the Rumors thread.
To be fair, the mentions of money have come from members here speculating and not any of the reportersSpending Eduardo Rodriguez money on a declining Teoscar Hernandez - for 4 friggin years- is ridiculous.
Backwash - Tech Questions threadWere lurkers promoted to New Members?
Why would you wanna give more at bats to Yoshida than Casas? I'd flip those two.Attempting to answer the new thread title, if we now have a Teoscar, that almost certainly means he's in LF with Masa at DH. So with O'Neill in right, we've got an overflow in the OF with one starting spot for Duran, Abreu & Rafaela, and I have to assume at least one is getting traded, though I think with O'Neill's injury history it would be prudent to hold on to the third.
Then again, our OF is suddenly right handed, so maybe it's Refsnyder who gets a new home as having a platoon isn't urgent anymore?
Among IF, Yoshida's move to DH means one less space available to find coverage for the corners. I think it becomes extra important to find a 2B who can do that for flexibility (I'll continue to bang the Drury drum), but I also want someone on the bench who'd be comfortable spelling Casas. If Urshela's market slips, he might fit? But it doesn't seem likely to me that he can't find something better than a super sub role.
1. Duran CF L
2. Story SS R
3. Yoshida DH L
4. Devers 3B L
5. Hernandez LF R
6. Casas 1B L
7. O'Neill RF R
8. Drury 2B R
9. Wong C R
Bench: McGuire, Abreu, Urshela/Rafaela, Reyes
I’d hate 4/75 or 4/80 for Teoscar, but this is a bit over the top. Teoscar has been consistently better than Tyler O’Neil, who has been bad for most of his career.I really, really hope this rumor is bogus. Spending Eduardo Rodriguez money on a declining Teoscar Hernandez - for 4 friggin years- is ridiculous. There is little reason to think that he'd even be an upgrade from Tyler O'Neil, who can at least play defense. If the team wants to waste a bunch of money on an uninspiring free agent, I'd rather they blow away the competition on Marcus Stroman or an injured Clayton Kershaw. If they are going to waste money it should least be in an area of need...
This is where we’re at with this organization sadly.I am hoping this rumor is false. He is a player in decline and I fear this is a desperation move. Better to run out last years team and accept the realities than this kind of move.
4 years for someone with his profile would be a terrible idea. If it takes 4 years to get the job done, move on. I wouldn’t love 3 years but it wouldn’t be a killer. 2 would be ideal.I think a lot of the trepidation about teoscar probably stems from the MLBTR prediction of a 4/$80m contract, which coincidentally matches the rumored term, and is frankly an insane number for a guy that appears to be on a multi-year downswing. His Fangraphs projection was a more reasonable 3/$45m, which to me still feels high, but I wouldn't be outraged about it.
If Teoscar Hernandez was 2021 he wouldn’t be available for the price he’s available at. I find it odd people aren’t factoring in the perceived price adjusted risk.I think a lot of the trepidation about teoscar probably stems from the MLBTR prediction of a 4/$80m contract, which coincidentally matches the rumored term, and is frankly an insane number for a guy that appears to be on a multi-year downswing. His Fangraphs projection was a more reasonable 3/$45m, which to me still feels high, but I wouldn't be outraged about it.
The problem with this is the gap between "can" and "will." Each has done this once in their career, both three seasons ago now. I'm not sure I'd pencil either one in for 30 home runs just yet.If Teoscar Hernandez was 2021 he wouldn’t be available for the price he’s available at. I find it odd people aren’t factoring in the perceived price adjusted risk.
We’d be a better team tomorrow if he was signed today.
The Red Sox started the off season with zero right handed hitter capable of hitting 30 bombs. Adding two right handed hitting outfielders (Hernandez and O’Neil) who can pop 30 for let’s say a total 20AAV would be pretty damn good business IMO.
3 might make sense if you have some reason to expect trend reversal and the kids (some combination of Duran, Abreu Rafaela) are bound for new homes in exchange for win-now-and-later pitching.4 years for someone with his profile would be a terrible idea. If it takes 4 years to get the job done, move on. I wouldn’t love 3 years but it wouldn’t be a killer. 2 would be ideal.
You can't roster 6 guys whose primary defensive position is OF with a 7th that you're also looking toward sharing time out there.So against lefties.
Teoscar
O’Neill
Refnsyder
With Yoshida at DH (Can Refs play center?)
Against righties
Teoscar
O’Neill
Duran
With Yoshida at DH
O'Neill splits are nearly identical in his career against lefties and righties.
Teoscar sluggs nearly .100 points higher against lefties than righties.
Bench
Abreu
Rafaella
Rafaella's IF capabilities changes the equation a little but yeah, they aren't keeping that many OF.You can't roster 6 guys whose primary defensive position is OF with a 7th that you're also looking toward sharing time out there.
No doubt, I was counting him as #7. IF the Sox are interested in Hernandez as well as Paxton, It's likely with an eye toward packaging up one of the young OFs with one of the bottom of the rotation types on the roster and perhaps a prospect for pitching help.Rafaella's IF capabilities changes the equation a little but yeah, they aren't keeping that many OF.
I don’t disagree with the general thought, and maybe Drury is also a good option to consider for 2b (although I believe Merrifield would be a good stopgap who is a solid mlb player too), but Hernandez isn’t a “less exciting” bat in our outfield. We currently don’t really have an exciting outfield. Yoshida is fine, Duran is still up in the air, ref isn’t an everyday player, abreau is unknown, even O’Neill is kind of a flip of the coin right now. We need solid players. Is Hernandez an all-star? Probably not, but we need decent players that we can count on. We have question marks everywhere. Even our best player isn’t an overall slam dunk. ($300 million for a player who sux at D and can’t run was so reactionary)if Drury is available he should the targeted RH power bat. He plays the position of biggest need for the Sox (2b) and was a better hitter than Teo last year. Hernandez is just another unimpressive glove and less than exciting bat to throw into an already crowded OF. Pass.
Totally agree with this. Just reading through posts the last few days is driving me mad. A team like the Red Sox shouldn't care if we only get 3 good years out of a 4 year contract right now, or that we're only going to get 14 AAV of "value" on a 18 AAV contract, or whatever.It’s too funny. Everyone’s complaining about not making moves or being “in on” FAs and then immediately we gripe, “yeah, but not THAT move!”
Teoscar is a proven ML player. We need more of them. And we need to move away from marginal talent. This team is so mediocre as constructed it’s maddening. We need to get solid professional players and stop trying to fix things with “value” and “upside”. Sometimes you just need to have good players and stop worrying about the AAV or pre-arb control. Those things are important but building a real team is so much more than the value shown on a spreadsheet.
I vote to pin this post the to top of every single current thread.Totally agree with this. Just reading through posts the last few days is driving me mad. A team like the Red Sox shouldn't care if we only get 3 good years out of a 4 year contract right now, or that we're only going to get 14 AAV of "value" on a 18 AAV contract, or whatever.
The Sox are a last place team right now. We need help from basically anyone willing to come here.
He has a slugged over .600 at Fenway in a 45 game sample. It’s not like a blind “Fenway will help him” scouting guess. Fenway DOES help him.So the Red Sox are looking for a Trevor Story like signing to block up the LF to fix the lack of rotation....
I am really want Breslow to succeed but this is some Bloomesque poor team building.
Teoscar at a casual level looks like he helps, a hard hitting RHH OF who can play all three OF in a pinch. And it looks like the Red Sox are going full in on Hard Hit and Barrel Percentage which Teoscar is very very good at. The issue is his whiff rate is awful. Here is a guy with no zone control entering the back half of his career. Anything over ~5.5 WAR over the next three years is really buying into a righty in Fenway myth. Maybe 50/3 makes sense but the Dodgers would buy him as their 7th OF for the paltry sum.
Some of this I could agree with but sometimes this makes no sense. I do think overpaying for someone that helps you team makes sense but does Teoscar help this team? Jarren Duran projects to be about the same value player Teoscar does next year as does Wlyer Abreu. Unless you can use one of those two in a package to get a starter, why would you be paying Teoscar 20 million a year? You only have so many spots on the diamond and when you tie 20 million dollar multiyear contract anchor to them you are forced to use them when they are healthy despite a decline. See Story, Trevor.Totally agree with this. Just reading through posts the last few days is driving me mad. A team like the Red Sox shouldn't care if we only get 3 good years out of a 4 year contract right now, or that we're only going to get 14 AAV of "value" on a 18 AAV contract, or whatever.
The Sox are a last place team right now. We need help from basically anyone willing to come here.
I think the Sox would be extremely lucky to get 3 good years out of TH; the likelihood is that the decline starts now. His career numbers are buoyed by 2020-2022, but we’re looking at the 105-110 OPS+ of 2017, 18, 23 and beyond. Now I don’t have a crystal ball, and the FG write up shows that he still seems to hit the ball hard, but they’re very clear he needs to fix his swing decisions for any other skills to play.Totally agree with this. Just reading through posts the last few days is driving me mad. A team like the Red Sox shouldn't care if we only get 3 good years out of a 4 year contract right now, or that we're only going to get 14 AAV of "value" on a 18 AAV contract, or whatever.
The Sox are a last place team right now. We need help from basically anyone willing to come here.
Being 4+ years younger and a better career slash line (.261/.316/.486/.802 vs .232/.291/.472/.764).Apologies if this has already be asked.
What does Hernandez provide that Duvall at potentially half the cost doesn’t?
Despite his career numbers at Fenway, I actually don’t think it helps him much. He is very much a balanced hitter in terms of ground/fly/line drive tendencies and he utilizes the whole field (36% fly balls the past three years, 41% pull rate). Compare this to an Adam Duvall who is an extreme pull-side fly ball hitter. (54% fly balls, 51% pull rate). I suspect his success at Fenway is more of a function of the pitchers we’ve run out the past few years vs. the ballpark.He has a slugged over .600 at Fenway in a 45 game sample. It’s not like a blind “Fenway will help him” scouting guess. Fenway DOES help him.
Yeah, he’s a decent to solid player but this is a guy with a .305 OBP last year and .310 last 2 years. Is this someone you want to place a 3-4 year bet on? The Yankees were a prime example of a lineup that was too easy to get out outside of Judge. I don’t want the Sox to mirror that. I think those issues were a large reason why they went out and got Soto and Verdugo.Despite his career numbers at Fenway, I actually don’t think it helps him much. He is very much a balanced hitter in terms of ground/fly/line drive tendencies and he utilizes the whole field (36% fly balls the past three years, 41% pull rate). Compare this to an Adam Duvall who is an extreme pull-side fly ball hitter. (54% fly balls, 51% pull rate). I suspect his success at Fenway is more of a function of the pitchers we’ve run out the past few years vs. the ballpark.
My larger concern with Teoscar is his approach. He’s never been a selective hitter but his power has allowed him to get away with it. The past couple of years there has been a change in how pitchers attacked him - focusing more on sliders low and away vs fastballs. Since 2021, his 4-seam fastball % has gone from 34% to 24% and his slider% has gone from 27% to 33%. This mirrors a trend overall in baseball but pitchers have taken that to the extreme vs Teoscar (it could also be that more pitchers he faced last year featured sliders in their arsenal but I don’t know). Either way, he didn’t handle it well as his increased chase rate and decreased contact rate led to his lowest walk rate and highest k rate since 2018.
Can he adjust to the adjustments made by the pitchers? Maybe - there is some evidence that hitters are starting to adapt to the increased slider usage league wide. It’s a bit of a gamble though and I would be very hesitant to a multi-year commitment to find out. It’s unlikely he would accept but it would be great if they could convince him to take an Adrian Beltre-like pillow contract.
The sentiment that they need to add better players wherever available is justified. A last place team simply needs to get better where it can. The problem with adding Hernandez at 20 mil/year is that he isn't a starting pitcher. I'd rather give Snell 35 million a year over 6 years than Hernandez 20 over 4. The upgrade to the team by adding a 3-5 win pitcher vastly outweighs adding 2 win outfielder. This because the team has 2-3 outfielders that could give them a 2 win season- but only Bello that has a realistic chance of putting up 3-5 wins as a starter. I know that you can only sign the players that want to come to Boston, and possibly none of Snell, Montgomery or Stroman want to. But if signing Hernandez in any way hinders the ability to bring in at least 1 (and ideally 2) quality starters, then it feels like a less than ideal use of resources.I don’t mean to be snarky or surly… I just don’t want to rehash the last few years of “Hope everyone stays healthy and we also have positive regression on half the team and also young guys progress to their potential, and also we get the best case scenario for everything so we have a chance for the playoffs”.
I enjoy reading everyone’s comments and thoughts so don’t take it the wrong way. Just my gut check.
I would rather have Duvall out in the field, that much is certain.Apologies if this has already be asked.
What does Hernandez provide that Duvall at potentially half the cost doesn’t?
One year deals are easier to swallow than the potential four that has been bandied about for Teoscar. We don’t have many players on this team that have been with them for four years as it is.Its amazing to me the amount of people who want to return the same players as last years “last place team”. Duvall is a fine 4th outfielder. But we already have 3 of them. I’m not necessarily saying that Teoscar is amazing but to fall back on “Duvall can provide the same production at half the price” is just kinda lame.
If we want to wish upon the future of younger guys I can understand it, but bringing back the likes of Duvall and Paxton because they are “value plays” doesn’t move us forward.
How do we know what "type" Breslow is? We can't say whether or not he would overpay for a player like Hernandez until he either does or doesn't. At best, we really won't have any idea what "type" Breslow is until at least February when spring training opens and we have a more complete idea of what the 2024 team will look like (let alone the organization as a whole going forward).Breslow doesn’t seem like the type that would overpay for a player like Hernandez. Wait until the market dries up and sign him to a team friendly deal. Otherwise, it’s a hard pass.